Investment版 - poll: SP500 will be higher or lower in 1 month? |
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o*****c
发帖数: 241 | | h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 2 Higher. I don't think it will go back to fair price so quickly based on the
fact that the governments are still slow at removing the stimulus and thus
the "animal spirit" will be kept alive by "Bernanke put".
Also, I don't believe that Greece can trigger the next crisis, if anything,
the next crisis should be triggered by China.
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: anyone wants to guess?
| h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 3 To clarify what I meant, I think Greece represents the "sovereign debt"
crisis. But I dont' think by itself it will trigger the next crisis because
FED has showned the world the recipe to combat that issue (although Trichet
insists on "sterilizing" the printed money to show that he still loves money
-saving Germans). Greece is really a special case because I believe it is an
insolvency issue rather than liquidity issue. But all other big nation (
including US) "sovereign debts" should be solvent
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Higher. I don't think it will go back to fair price so quickly based on the
: fact that the governments are still slow at removing the stimulus and thus
: the "animal spirit" will be kept alive by "Bernanke put".
: Also, I don't believe that Greece can trigger the next crisis, if anything,
: the next crisis should be triggered by China.
| d*****1
发帖数: 1837 | | P********e
发帖数: 2610 | 5 that doesn't make sense
FEB can print money, "PIGS" can't.
Even Swiss has debt problem.
because
Trichet
money
an
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: To clarify what I meant, I think Greece represents the "sovereign debt"
: crisis. But I dont' think by itself it will trigger the next crisis because
: FED has showned the world the recipe to combat that issue (although Trichet
: insists on "sterilizing" the printed money to show that he still loves money
: -saving Germans). Greece is really a special case because I believe it is an
: insolvency issue rather than liquidity issue. But all other big nation (
: including US) "sovereign debts" should be solvent
| w*****y
发帖数: 2182 | 6 That's a good point I haven't seen for a while.
The embezzlement seems to me comes from the huge profit for the government
out of the house bubble. So when this bubble broke, China's rapid grownth
will cease thus trigger the world crisis.Right?
because
Trichet
money
an
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: To clarify what I meant, I think Greece represents the "sovereign debt"
: crisis. But I dont' think by itself it will trigger the next crisis because
: FED has showned the world the recipe to combat that issue (although Trichet
: insists on "sterilizing" the printed money to show that he still loves money
: -saving Germans). Greece is really a special case because I believe it is an
: insolvency issue rather than liquidity issue. But all other big nation (
: including US) "sovereign debts" should be solvent
| h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 7 I am glad that someone agrees with my theory.
I don't know about the future an it is hard to estimate. By some
estimate, the mortgage loan is less than 20% of GDP in China; the loan to
property developer is less than 10%, and the loans to local governments
are less than 30%. So the total is less than 60%, which is smaller than
79% of the mortgage to GDP ratio when the US financial crisis started.
But what "money velocity" is in China when the collaterals to housing
marketing starts to contract i
【在 w*****y 的大作中提到】
: That's a good point I haven't seen for a while.
: The embezzlement seems to me comes from the huge profit for the government
: out of the house bubble. So when this bubble broke, China's rapid grownth
: will cease thus trigger the world crisis.Right?
:
: because
: Trichet
: money
: an
| w*****y
发帖数: 2182 | 8 Now I ffdt. Just push this thread up, hope some experts can really have deep
thoughts into this.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: I am glad that someone agrees with my theory.
: I don't know about the future an it is hard to estimate. By some
: estimate, the mortgage loan is less than 20% of GDP in China; the loan to
: property developer is less than 10%, and the loans to local governments
: are less than 30%. So the total is less than 60%, which is smaller than
: 79% of the mortgage to GDP ratio when the US financial crisis started.
: But what "money velocity" is in China when the collaterals to housing
: marketing starts to contract i
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