K****D 发帖数: 30533 | 1 Alcoa (AA).
Analyst estimate earning: 6 cents. Actual: 1 cent.
Analyst estimate revenue: $4.82 billion. Actual: $5.43 billion.
Could anyone please tell us what's going on?
1) The analysts are too stupid, or
2) AA played accounting tricks, or
3) The business is too difficult to understand, or
4) something else? |
a**e 发帖数: 5794 | 2 read the statements
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】 : Alcoa (AA). : Analyst estimate earning: 6 cents. Actual: 1 cent. : Analyst estimate revenue: $4.82 billion. Actual: $5.43 billion. : Could anyone please tell us what's going on? : 1) The analysts are too stupid, or : 2) AA played accounting tricks, or : 3) The business is too difficult to understand, or : 4) something else?
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K****D 发帖数: 30533 | 3 Don't have time now ah. You have read it?
【在 a**e 的大作中提到】 : read the statements
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a**e 发帖数: 5794 | 4 Q4比Q3直接成本增加了6%,重组开销增加了三倍;Q3的税率是-22.4,
Q4是34.8%。
直接成本多出来1B,而销售额只多了0.8B
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】 : Alcoa (AA). : Analyst estimate earning: 6 cents. Actual: 1 cent. : Analyst estimate revenue: $4.82 billion. Actual: $5.43 billion. : Could anyone please tell us what's going on? : 1) The analysts are too stupid, or : 2) AA played accounting tricks, or : 3) The business is too difficult to understand, or : 4) something else?
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K****D 发帖数: 30533 | 5 So the analysts just couldn't predict that at all?
Or they are not aware of the 重组 or higher material costs news?
To me, a 15% revenue estimate error is huge. On top of that,
an error in the earning estimate in the opposite direction
is kinda unthinkable.
【在 a**e 的大作中提到】 : Q4比Q3直接成本增加了6%,重组开销增加了三倍;Q3的税率是-22.4, : Q4是34.8%。 : 直接成本多出来1B,而销售额只多了0.8B
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a**e 发帖数: 5794 | 6 分析家们给公众看的报告和给基金经理的报告应该是不同的吧,要不
谁还出钱买。
免费的预测就应该不准嘛。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】 : So the analysts just couldn't predict that at all? : Or they are not aware of the 重组 or higher material costs news? : To me, a 15% revenue estimate error is huge. On top of that, : an error in the earning estimate in the opposite direction : is kinda unthinkable.
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D*****I 发帖数: 8268 | 7 I guess AA included a lot of OPEX of 2010 to 2009
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】 : Alcoa (AA). : Analyst estimate earning: 6 cents. Actual: 1 cent. : Analyst estimate revenue: $4.82 billion. Actual: $5.43 billion. : Could anyone please tell us what's going on? : 1) The analysts are too stupid, or : 2) AA played accounting tricks, or : 3) The business is too difficult to understand, or : 4) something else?
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g*********0 发帖数: 672 | 8 傻啊
就算你自己是老板,你也能算准下季度么?
这种问题也能问出来
靠 |
g*********0 发帖数: 672 | 9 看了几天,发现投资版的人全都不懂投资,没有懂得
不过欢迎你们来股版混 |
s**********n 发帖数: 868 | 10 Are you kidding me?
你确定你跟我看的是同一个MITBBS的那个叫做股海弄潮的版么?也许这里真懂投资的不
多,但那里更少。
【在 g*********0 的大作中提到】 : 看了几天,发现投资版的人全都不懂投资,没有懂得 : 不过欢迎你们来股版混
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b****e 发帖数: 460 | 11 老巴也不会确知任何一个公司下一个季度的任何数据,所以他从来不把宝押在下一个季
度的数字上。他甚至说过每年的数据都不要太认真,三年以上的数据才能开始看出点眉
目。
FA的作用是看这个公司未来10年中所处的环境大概是什么样子的,这个公司这样干以后
10年能不能发财。比如Alcoa成本是不是比别人低,产品品质是不是比别人高,债务是不
是比别人少,技术是不是领先,销售渠道是不是比别人好。这些是FA要看的。至于下一
个季度多少数,天知道。analyst的报告有的很好玩的。比如有的公司一个季度结束时在
10Q出来之前说了一个两位有效数字的销售同比变化率,其他什么数据都没有说。于是有
个analyst就能预测出这个公司未来5年的每个季度的销售,库存,盈利,债务,等等所
有的数据,而且每一个都是5位有效数字。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】 : Alcoa (AA). : Analyst estimate earning: 6 cents. Actual: 1 cent. : Analyst estimate revenue: $4.82 billion. Actual: $5.43 billion. : Could anyone please tell us what's going on? : 1) The analysts are too stupid, or : 2) AA played accounting tricks, or : 3) The business is too difficult to understand, or : 4) something else?
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