n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 1 i didnot know the meaning of 485 inventory numbers until yesterday. here is
the interpretation. if the number is greater than 0, the application is
greater than greened in that month, inventory increase. if none or negative,
less than greened, inventory decrease.
the jan inventory is currently at 873, more than last oct inventory, so
there are more applications than greened over the three months period. lets
assume average moving speed, or 220 a months, or 660 get card. add 873 you
have 1533.
here is prediction after jan. note that the monthly inventory jump back to
62, or more application than greened again, because the cut off date passed
the crisis time, there is no reason to believe less people will apply. use
the lowest estimate 60, then feb and mar, you have 440 green and
inventory number 993 that is 2093.
ok, till this moment, we did not even count boat jumpers yet. based
on last year e3 data, roughly 1900 485 plus 600 CP. lets assume same for
this year, 485 = 2093- 600/12*5 = 1843. pretty much the 1900 mark
any reason to expect apr movement? shall we thank our dear and caring
eb2? thanks, but no thanks. |
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 2 as a scientist, if always good idea to do error analysis.
So where will error come from
1) under-estimate: only 3 months included for GC approval. In fact, it is 4
months if using the fiscal year calendar (10,11,12,1), so another 220 should
be added.
2) over-estimate: not all 485 will be approved, some will be denied. Not
sure how to calculate this part.
3) over-estimate: uneven moving pace over the month. Jan stats finally
showed recovery to a positive number. It should be coincide with the
financial crisis recovery. However, becuase VB movement slowed down for Feb
and Mar, jumping 11 month for these two months while Jan alone jumped 12
months. There may be over-estimate for these two months. But that number
would not exceed 220, for example, two months (feb and mar) is equal to one
month (Jan).
So 1 and 3 cancel each other, the error would pretty much rise from how many
will be denied. |
l*******n
发帖数: 8388 | 3 1. Your assumption of 220 GC per month is not correct. You did not consider
the normal processing time of a 485 application. And more importantly, you
do not know (none of us know at this time)how many EB3 485 applications were
submitted from Oct 13 to Jan 14. Maybe there were only 200 such
applications in total during this period.
2. From what you wrote, you do not know the meaning of inventory data even
now.
... lets
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: i didnot know the meaning of 485 inventory numbers until yesterday. here is
: the interpretation. if the number is greater than 0, the application is
: greater than greened in that month, inventory increase. if none or negative,
: less than greened, inventory decrease.
: the jan inventory is currently at 873, more than last oct inventory, so
: there are more applications than greened over the three months period. lets
: assume average moving speed, or 220 a months, or 660 get card. add 873 you
: have 1533.
: here is prediction after jan. note that the monthly inventory jump back to
: 62, or more application than greened again, because the cut off date passed
|
y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 4 你看看TSC处理485到哪天了？最近是11月前的集中报绿呢。现在是进来一个批一个，全
看移民官手速，每个月能批几个，谁能知道？
consider
you
were
【在 l*******n 的大作中提到】
: 1. Your assumption of 220 GC per month is not correct. You did not consider
: the normal processing time of a 485 application. And more importantly, you
: do not know (none of us know at this time)how many EB3 485 applications were
: submitted from Oct 13 to Jan 14. Maybe there were only 200 such
: applications in total during this period.
: 2. From what you wrote, you do not know the meaning of inventory data even
: now.
:
: ... lets
|
l*******n
发帖数: 8388 | 5 是啊。他把有demand的EB2 关闸后的处理情况用于放水+demand不足的EB3，根本就是乱
来。
BTW， nccam， 你的英语要加强啊。否则你的eb1 堪忧啊。当然更重要的是，推理和论
证的逻辑性要大步前进。不然接受了你的大作的journal，我真为他们担心。
【在 y******0 的大作中提到】
: 你看看TSC处理485到哪天了？最近是11月前的集中报绿呢。现在是进来一个批一个，全
: 看移民官手速，每个月能批几个，谁能知道？
:
: consider
: you
: were
|
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 6 don't claim victory by yourself so fast.
Your points were not logic.
Your first point, it takss time to process 485. Ok, we all know that. If
there were none in the inventory, you are right. But there are already
people in the inventory from beginning, they have waited for months to get
485 done. So your first point does not make any sense. Unless you can show
me data that 485 before Oct is zero.
Your second point is again flawed. It only demonstrate that you did not
undertsand the numbers in 485 inventory. If there is any positive number,
that means there are more apllications than the gc approved, thus postive
number, inventory increases. Ohterwise inventory would go down.
Think again, girl.
【在 l*******n 的大作中提到】
: 是啊。他把有demand的EB2 关闸后的处理情况用于放水+demand不足的EB3，根本就是乱
: 来。
: BTW， nccam， 你的英语要加强啊。否则你的eb1 堪忧啊。当然更重要的是，推理和论
: 证的逻辑性要大步前进。不然接受了你的大作的journal，我真为他们担心。
|
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 7 besides, i am not writing a scientific mansucript, neitehr a artistic
literature. So i really do not care about grammar stuff, as long as people
understand. Otherwise I would've written in Chinese. Just want to save time. |
A****y
发帖数: 2467 | 8 Hey, just curious, what's your RD? You may not need to fight so hard since
you might get your green card very soon!
people
time.
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: besides, i am not writing a scientific mansucript, neitehr a artistic
: literature. So i really do not care about grammar stuff, as long as people
: understand. Otherwise I would've written in Chinese. Just want to save time.
|
c*****4
发帖数: 1777 | 9 英语不好在EB里面你写的东西就没有说服力。这里多数人都寄托过。我怀疑你的水平能
否拿600分。当然你写给自己看的另说。
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: don't claim victory by yourself so fast.
: Your points were not logic.
: Your first point, it takss time to process 485. Ok, we all know that. If
: there were none in the inventory, you are right. But there are already
: people in the inventory from beginning, they have waited for months to get
: 485 done. So your first point does not make any sense. Unless you can show
: me data that 485 before Oct is zero.
: Your second point is again flawed. It only demonstrate that you did not
: undertsand the numbers in 485 inventory. If there is any positive number,
: that means there are more apllications than the gc approved, thus postive
|
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 10 i have already hired lawyer months ago to go for EB1A for different reasons
(some grant proposals need gc, no time to wait). Also, we all know that vb
movement for eb3 is ending now as USCIS already claimed. whatever happen
will not benefit or hurt me. I simply feel that what eb2er's doing is unfair
to other chinese. I want all chinese to get fair benefit in this foreign
country.
【在 A****y 的大作中提到】
: Hey, just curious, what's your RD? You may not need to fight so hard since
: you might get your green card very soon!
:
: people
: time.
|
|
|
s********z
发帖数: 5411 | 11 别泡版了，有时间多学学英语吧
reasons
unfair
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: i have already hired lawyer months ago to go for EB1A for different reasons
: (some grant proposals need gc, no time to wait). Also, we all know that vb
: movement for eb3 is ending now as USCIS already claimed. whatever happen
: will not benefit or hurt me. I simply feel that what eb2er's doing is unfair
: to other chinese. I want all chinese to get fair benefit in this foreign
: country.
|
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 12 if a 550 socre is sufficient to get admitted into most phd programs, why
bother scoring 650? funny logic.
【在 c*****4 的大作中提到】
: 英语不好在EB里面你写的东西就没有说服力。这里多数人都寄托过。我怀疑你的水平能
: 否拿600分。当然你写给自己看的另说。
|
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 13 thanks for the advice. Could you show me your scientific publications such
that I can learn from you and improve my English? Appreciate.
【在 s********z 的大作中提到】
: 别泡版了，有时间多学学英语吧
:
: reasons
: unfair
|
EM
发帖数: 715 | 14 你是不是老邢派来的
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: thanks for the advice. Could you show me your scientific publications such
: that I can learn from you and improve my English? Appreciate.
|
A****y
发帖数: 2467 | 15 如果你真的只是追求公平，正义，希望所有中国人能得到公平对待的话，可以把时间和
精力多用在参与反对SCA 5的行动中来。这才是真正的对中国人不公平！！！我们大家
都想要拿绿卡，呆在这个国家，可是如果这个国家对我们及我们的后代充满歧视的话，
我们现在努力拿绿卡就没意义了。所以希望你能加入VOTE NO TO SCA 5中来!!
reasons
unfair
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: i have already hired lawyer months ago to go for EB1A for different reasons
: (some grant proposals need gc, no time to wait). Also, we all know that vb
: movement for eb3 is ending now as USCIS already claimed. whatever happen
: will not benefit or hurt me. I simply feel that what eb2er's doing is unfair
: to other chinese. I want all chinese to get fair benefit in this foreign
: country.
|
c******n
发帖数: 258 | 16 such that用的真好
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: thanks for the advice. Could you show me your scientific publications such
: that I can learn from you and improve my English? Appreciate.
|
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 17 I already signed the whitehouse petition. But I am not living in CA, so
cannot vote for it. Wish i had the right to vote.
Do not vote that for three bustards in the next election, even they are
chinese. They undermine the benefit of their own people (make me think of
downgraders).
【在 A****y 的大作中提到】
: 如果你真的只是追求公平，正义，希望所有中国人能得到公平对待的话，可以把时间和
: 精力多用在参与反对SCA 5的行动中来。这才是真正的对中国人不公平！！！我们大家
: 都想要拿绿卡，呆在这个国家，可是如果这个国家对我们及我们的后代充满歧视的话，
: 我们现在努力拿绿卡就没意义了。所以希望你能加入VOTE NO TO SCA 5中来!!
:
: reasons
: unfair
|
x***h
发帖数: 580 | 18 他去Immigration版游说的旗号是：请NIW通过牺牲自己的排期利益来使未来的、潜在的
NIW排期缩短，结果咧？人家Immigration版根本没人搭理他 |
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 19 NIW牺牲自己的排期？有趣，你的PD都还在那些NIW的后面，你得了卡，NIW连一根毛都
得不到。到头来NIW只能看着身前身后的都是拿卡，唯独自己像个傻瓜一样老老实实排
队。
【在 x***h 的大作中提到】
: 他去Immigration版游说的旗号是：请NIW通过牺牲自己的排期利益来使未来的、潜在的
: NIW排期缩短，结果咧？人家Immigration版根本没人搭理他
|
x***h
发帖数: 580 | 20 现在09、10年初的降级当然是给绝大部分NIW让道，
对于某个NIW来说，每一个PD早于他自己的eb2降级，就是给他自己让路
你反对降级就是绝了这条路，很难理解吗？
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: NIW牺牲自己的排期？有趣，你的PD都还在那些NIW的后面，你得了卡，NIW连一根毛都
: 得不到。到头来NIW只能看着身前身后的都是拿卡，唯独自己像个傻瓜一样老老实实排
: 队。
|
|
|
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 21 很好，每一个NIW都得等别人，而且还是能两锅一起吃的，吃完才轮到自己。为什么就
不能让这些人直接就上不了桌（某职位降级选了三，以后就只允许三），从而在根本上
减少竞争者？
一个是主动的竞争（直接减少进入EB2的数量），一个是被动等待（别人吃完了轮到自
己），只要不是傻瓜，肯定选前者。
【在 x***h 的大作中提到】
: 现在09、10年初的降级当然是给绝大部分NIW让道，
: 对于某个NIW来说，每一个PD早于他自己的eb2降级，就是给他自己让路
: 你反对降级就是绝了这条路，很难理解吗？
|
t******8
发帖数: 1529 | 22 楼主思路混乱啊，你怎么发文章凑eb1啊，作为reviewer我只能据你了 |
l*******n
发帖数: 8388 | 23 NIW更应该注意如何提高硬件，包装自己，创造条件上eb1. 或者至少再file 一个PERM.
跟PERM based EB2较劲，是堵死自己走PERM的一条路啊。 |
b***a
发帖数: 494 | 24 你说你每天闲的没事蹦跶什么。到处招人烦。
大家都是按照AILA的声明办事，你要是觉得不合理，你去告AILA去，爱怎么告怎么告，
如果能让AILA或者USCIS发一个声明说不合法，那就自然没有人降级了。你说你正事不
做，成天在论坛里面招人烦有意思么。
再说了，当初轰轰烈烈说降级不合法，要给USCIS写信，说的信誓旦旦的，还要找议院
催结果。最后怎么信也没发出去。你说你除了在论坛上招人烦还能做点正经事不。
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: 很好，每一个NIW都得等别人，而且还是能两锅一起吃的，吃完才轮到自己。为什么就
: 不能让这些人直接就上不了桌（某职位降级选了三，以后就只允许三），从而在根本上
: 减少竞争者？
: 一个是主动的竞争（直接减少进入EB2的数量），一个是被动等待（别人吃完了轮到自
: 己），只要不是傻瓜，肯定选前者。
|
l*******n
发帖数: 8388 | 25 哎， 不要刺激他。就让他在论坛里面调剂一下情绪吧。
【在 b***a 的大作中提到】
: 你说你每天闲的没事蹦跶什么。到处招人烦。
: 大家都是按照AILA的声明办事，你要是觉得不合理，你去告AILA去，爱怎么告怎么告，
: 如果能让AILA或者USCIS发一个声明说不合法，那就自然没有人降级了。你说你正事不
: 做，成天在论坛里面招人烦有意思么。
: 再说了，当初轰轰烈烈说降级不合法，要给USCIS写信，说的信誓旦旦的，还要找议院
: 催结果。最后怎么信也没发出去。你说你除了在论坛上招人烦还能做点正经事不。
|
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 26 谢谢你的鞭策，我正在做你希望我去做的。
【在 b***a 的大作中提到】
: 你说你每天闲的没事蹦跶什么。到处招人烦。
: 大家都是按照AILA的声明办事，你要是觉得不合理，你去告AILA去，爱怎么告怎么告，
: 如果能让AILA或者USCIS发一个声明说不合法，那就自然没有人降级了。你说你正事不
: 做，成天在论坛里面招人烦有意思么。
: 再说了，当初轰轰烈烈说降级不合法，要给USCIS写信，说的信誓旦旦的，还要找议院
: 催结果。最后怎么信也没发出去。你说你除了在论坛上招人烦还能做点正经事不。
|
b***a
发帖数: 494 | 27 赶紧去做吧，不要再来论坛烦人了。真的做成了，发个link过来，告诉大家不能降级了
就行了。你现在在论坛里做的事情没有任何意义。预祝你打败所有律师，另外你可以顺
便申请一下法学院，不做律师太可惜了。
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢你的鞭策，我正在做你希望我去做的。
|
U***u
发帖数: 334 | |
k******w
发帖数: 425 | |
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 30 保护属于自己的利益是一种很自然的行为，假如你觉得奇葩，那请你欢迎我到你家白吃
白喝，你还不得报警如何？
【在 k******w 的大作中提到】
: 我是在忍不住了，楼主你真是一朵奇葩。
|
|
|
A****y
发帖数: 2467 | 31 那你就明说是保护自己的利益好了，非要披着EB1的遮羞布，说自己是要EB1A的人，只
是见不得不公平！
另外你惊世骇俗的宁愿把名额给EB2I也不给EB2C的论调，已经把自己搞成汉奸了。幸好
你不得志，也不能造成像那几个汉奸华裔参议员一样的危害。
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: 保护属于自己的利益是一种很自然的行为，假如你觉得奇葩，那请你欢迎我到你家白吃
: 白喝，你还不得报警如何？
|
H***5
发帖数: 495 | 32 这英语太差吧。。。
is
negative,
lets
passed
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: i didnot know the meaning of 485 inventory numbers until yesterday. here is
: the interpretation. if the number is greater than 0, the application is
: greater than greened in that month, inventory increase. if none or negative,
: less than greened, inventory decrease.
: the jan inventory is currently at 873, more than last oct inventory, so
: there are more applications than greened over the three months period. lets
: assume average moving speed, or 220 a months, or 660 get card. add 873 you
: have 1533.
: here is prediction after jan. note that the monthly inventory jump back to
: 62, or more application than greened again, because the cut off date passed
|
n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 33 我觉得你的认真对待自己的健康问题，幻视幻听幻想，不是一个好的现象。
【在 A****y 的大作中提到】
: 那你就明说是保护自己的利益好了，非要披着EB1的遮羞布，说自己是要EB1A的人，只
: 是见不得不公平！
: 另外你惊世骇俗的宁愿把名额给EB2I也不给EB2C的论调，已经把自己搞成汉奸了。幸好
: 你不得志，也不能造成像那几个汉奸华裔参议员一样的危害。
|
A****y
发帖数: 2467 | 34 你自己有脸在俱乐部发帖要联合阿三来对付降级的EB2C，别没脸承认啊~~~
【在 n***m 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得你的认真对待自己的健康问题，幻视幻听幻想，不是一个好的现象。
|
y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 35 这个帖子本来是技术讨论帖，现在变成人身攻击帖了，请不要回复了。 |
l*******4
发帖数: 406 | 36 原文贴出来，
一会儿说是保护自身利益，一会儿是看不过EB2表演动了恻隐之心。
到NIW去煽风点火，坚称阻止EB2降级是为了NIW的合法权益。
信誓旦旦说EB2得了便宜还不赶紧给NIU多捐款，然后又去找NIU看看能不能举报中国人。
PHD EB3排期连续前进到处说EB3最苦逼求可怜，EB3失业了名额没用完EB2就是踩着尸体
前进。
版务投诉说隐私被威胁。
各种思路各种模板，弄得跟唐人街庇护一条龙是的。。。汗。。。
【在 A****y 的大作中提到】
: 你自己有脸在俱乐部发帖要联合阿三来对付降级的EB2C，别没脸承认啊~~~
|
