d********1
发帖数: 1698 | 1 my PD is Jan 2008. I think we are in same boat. I agree with your analysis,
the big question is how big O will open the gate:
Nov is 3.5 months, if Dec is 2months-which is extremly possible, then the
Vb will be the end of 2007.
if that is the case, the demand will be enough--21000--as you predicted.
so, do you think O will consider 21000 demand is good enough for fiscal year
2012?
it is kind conservative. but 21000 will work. why he wants to open the gate
to 30000 at first quarter? he can open the gate again in May or June. at
that time he has better idea what the SO could be...
hope i am wrong. what do you think? |
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 2 if he opens the gate again in May or June
those demands won't be fulfilled within FY2012
,
year
gate
【在 d********1 的大作中提到】
: my PD is Jan 2008. I think we are in same boat. I agree with your analysis,
: the big question is how big O will open the gate:
: Nov is 3.5 months, if Dec is 2months-which is extremly possible, then the
: Vb will be the end of 2007.
: if that is the case, the demand will be enough--21000--as you predicted.
: so, do you think O will consider 21000 demand is good enough for fiscal year
: 2012?
: it is kind conservative. but 21000 will work. why he wants to open the gate
: to 30000 at first quarter? he can open the gate again in May or June. at
: that time he has better idea what the SO could be...
|
d********1
发帖数: 1698 | 3 that does make sense. does anybody know what is the SO of 2011, 2010, 2009?
I believe O will use old SO in his prediction and decide what the gate
should be.
any idea?
But he may be stupid again..
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: if he opens the gate again in May or June
: those demands won't be fulfilled within FY2012
:
: ,
: year
: gate
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 4 I got the data from Q's forum for you. Credit to S.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillove
SOFAD 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466----around 30000
The lowest SOFAD is in 2009 and usually it's between 20k-30k.
I think CO will very likely to move the PD to get 30k at least. But nobody
knows what he will do. He is unpredictable!
【在 d********1 的大作中提到】
: that does make sense. does anybody know what is the SO of 2011, 2010, 2009?
: I believe O will use old SO in his prediction and decide what the gate
: should be.
: any idea?
: But he may be stupid again..
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 5 Do those numbers include dependents? Thanks!
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I got the data from Q's forum for you. Credit to S.
: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillove
: SOFAD 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
: 21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466----around 30000
: The lowest SOFAD is in 2009 and usually it's between 20k-30k.
: I think CO will very likely to move the PD to get 30k at least. But nobody
: knows what he will do. He is unpredictable!
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 6 yes, total number, which means include every case approved.
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: Do those numbers include dependents? Thanks!
|
d********1
发帖数: 1698 | 7 should be 30000. thanks!
26466 in 2010 is good data for him to use.
god bless us.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I got the data from Q's forum for you. Credit to S.
: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?193-SOFAD-Spillove
: SOFAD 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
: 21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466----around 30000
: The lowest SOFAD is in 2009 and usually it's between 20k-30k.
: I think CO will very likely to move the PD to get 30k at least. But nobody
: knows what he will do. He is unpredictable!
|
c******4
发帖数: 933 | 8 co-bless us
【在 d********1 的大作中提到】
: should be 30000. thanks!
: 26466 in 2010 is good data for him to use.
: god bless us.
|
d********1
发帖数: 1698 | 9 if porting is 5000.
then 30000 will make the VB to the end of Jan. or Feb.
it is hard to predict what total demand he will create. but 30000 is good
for him to use.
【在 d********1 的大作中提到】
: should be 30000. thanks!
: 26466 in 2010 is good data for him to use.
: god bless us.
|
d********1
发帖数: 1698 | 10 SOFAD is the total used by EB2 of china and india?
if that is the case, he may use 2008 SOFAD of 21000.
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: Do those numbers include dependents? Thanks!
|
|
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 11 yes, SOFAD is the actual total approvals!
Not all the new cases can be approved in the summer of 2012, so he has to
use a safty factor. I think his target is between 25k-40k, most probably is
35k-40k. Just my personal opinion.
【在 d********1 的大作中提到】
: SOFAD is the total used by EB2 of china and india?
: if that is the case, he may use 2008 SOFAD of 21000.
|
w*l
发帖数: 2550 | 12 Agree. It is always good for him to have an UNUSED demand by the end of a
fiscal year.
Like 2011, there was an ~8K demand.
is
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, SOFAD is the actual total approvals!
: Not all the new cases can be approved in the summer of 2012, so he has to
: use a safty factor. I think his target is between 25k-40k, most probably is
: 35k-40k. Just my personal opinion.
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 13 If there is zero demand
and still visa numbers left
isn't he supposed to set it to C?
【在 w*l 的大作中提到】
: Agree. It is always good for him to have an UNUSED demand by the end of a
: fiscal year.
: Like 2011, there was an ~8K demand.
:
: is
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 14 理论上讲是可以
但是实际上不可以，因为他明确说了不想要2007大潮重演
他想慢慢挪，每年达到一个估计的目标
他可能也怕浪费名额，我估计他会给自己留个余地
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: If there is zero demand
: and still visa numbers left
: isn't he supposed to set it to C?
|
w*l
发帖数: 2550 | 15 What I learned is, in that situation, he may get in trouble if he did not
set it to C. Because leting unused numbers go to EB3 is against the law.
He also gets himself in another type of trouble if he set it to C. So I
would say that he would try to prevent that to happen and having certain
amount of extra demand (~10K more than allocated + possible spillovers)
would ensure that not to happen,.
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: If there is zero demand
: and still visa numbers left
: isn't he supposed to set it to C?
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 16 所以说
这次他放小水
是为了避免在不远的将来被迫放大水（C）？
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: 理论上讲是可以
: 但是实际上不可以，因为他明确说了不想要2007大潮重演
: 他想慢慢挪，每年达到一个估计的目标
: 他可能也怕浪费名额，我估计他会给自己留个余地
|
A**********g
发帖数: 987 | 17 大潮后几个月的pd 都好惨阿， EAD都没有什么用， 反正485交上半年以后也差不多批了
,
year
gate
【在 d********1 的大作中提到】
: my PD is Jan 2008. I think we are in same boat. I agree with your analysis,
: the big question is how big O will open the gate:
: Nov is 3.5 months, if Dec is 2months-which is extremly possible, then the
: Vb will be the end of 2007.
: if that is the case, the demand will be enough--21000--as you predicted.
: so, do you think O will consider 21000 demand is good enough for fiscal year
: 2012?
: it is kind conservative. but 21000 will work. why he wants to open the gate
: to 30000 at first quarter? he can open the gate again in May or June. at
: that time he has better idea what the SO could be...
|
A**********g
发帖数: 987 | 18 这次水放得远远不够啊， 12年度就业比11还差， SO应该更多阿
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 所以说
: 这次他放小水
: 是为了避免在不远的将来被迫放大水（C）？
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 19 这就是我上次USCIS电话会议时发言说的内容！
EAD/AP形同鸡肋
真正用的着的人没法申请
可以申请的人又犯不着申请
你们设了这个选项 到底有没有诚意？？！！
批了
【在 A**********g 的大作中提到】
: 大潮后几个月的pd 都好惨阿， EAD都没有什么用， 反正485交上半年以后也差不多批了
:
: ,
: year
: gate
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 20 O傻肯放出3万人
追平去年的SOFAD就不错啦
这B什么操行 你我又不是不知道
要是到了夏天被他搞到DEMAND枯竭 无人可批
老子就去NIU挑头搞CAMPAIGN要他放C
叫他咎由自取
【在 A**********g 的大作中提到】
: 这次水放得远远不够啊， 12年度就业比11还差， SO应该更多阿
|
|
|
A**********g
发帖数: 987 | 21 这些官僚们那会理解我们的痛苦， 一腔愤懑没处发泄阿， 但自己显然又不是最背的那
些。
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 这就是我上次USCIS电话会议时发言说的内容！
: EAD/AP形同鸡肋
: 真正用的着的人没法申请
: 可以申请的人又犯不着申请
: 你们设了这个选项 到底有没有诚意？？！！
:
: 批了
|
H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 22 your PD will be current on December 1, 2011
,
year
gate
【在 d********1 的大作中提到】
: my PD is Jan 2008. I think we are in same boat. I agree with your analysis,
: the big question is how big O will open the gate:
: Nov is 3.5 months, if Dec is 2months-which is extremly possible, then the
: Vb will be the end of 2007.
: if that is the case, the demand will be enough--21000--as you predicted.
: so, do you think O will consider 21000 demand is good enough for fiscal year
: 2012?
: it is kind conservative. but 21000 will work. why he wants to open the gate
: to 30000 at first quarter? he can open the gate again in May or June. at
: that time he has better idea what the SO could be...
|
A**********g
发帖数: 987 | 23 what will the cutoff be then
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: your PD will be current on December 1, 2011
:
: ,
: year
: gate
|
d********1
发帖数: 1698 | 24 hope you are right.
thanks
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: your PD will be current on December 1, 2011
:
: ,
: year
: gate
|
r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 25 I hope so too, but I am not sure whether he will do as we hope.
He may set PD to Dec.31 2007, it's also possible.
We have to be prepared for the worst senario just in case......
【在 d********1 的大作中提到】
: hope you are right.
: thanks
|
