H******i 发帖数: 4704 | |
L***a 发帖数: 3674 | |
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 3 thanks for sharing! 2 questions
(1)why China * 1.5, is it because of too many chinese wsn?
(2)years of waiting is since now or since PD? and the wait time is for 485
or for the card?
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
|
B*****g 发帖数: 34098 | 4 等待时间怎么酸的?从现在开始?
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
|
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 5 since PD, for I-485.
Chinese × 1.5 is my sample. Many Chinese wives work and have their own
PERM. Also there're many single people. Most Chinese have their children
born in U.S., only very few bring children from China to U.S.
485
【在 u**********s 的大作中提到】 : thanks for sharing! 2 questions : (1)why China * 1.5, is it because of too many chinese wsn? : (2)years of waiting is since now or since PD? and the wait time is for 485 : or for the card?
|
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 6 谢谢解释。感觉你这个和神龙,rocketsfan的区别是那个 demand/perm ratio,你的
是1.5,他们似乎是2左右。我信你的了,少等几年。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : since PD, for I-485. : Chinese × 1.5 is my sample. Many Chinese wives work and have their own : PERM. Also there're many single people. Most Chinese have their children : born in U.S., only very few bring children from China to U.S. : : 485
|
l****n 发帖数: 3081 | |
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 8 doesn't look right for pd 2008? according to your table, they should have
submitted 485 by now?
【在 u**********s 的大作中提到】 : 谢谢解释。感觉你这个和神龙,rocketsfan的区别是那个 demand/perm ratio,你的 : 是1.5,他们似乎是2左右。我信你的了,少等几年。
|
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 9 the table says "to be filed"
【在 u**********s 的大作中提到】 : doesn't look right for pd 2008? according to your table, they should have : submitted 485 by now?
|
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 10 Confused... assume one pd is 2008.1, then if no SO, wait 2.3 yrs since pd,
which is 2010.3 , last year.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : the table says "to be filed"
|
|
|
l****n 发帖数: 3081 | |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 12 这里我的意思是2008年12月的从现在起等个一两年大概就可以file I-485了。
如果是2008年1月的,就大概相同于2007年12月,七八个月左右就可以了。
【在 u**********s 的大作中提到】 : Confused... assume one pd is 2008.1, then if no SO, wait 2.3 yrs since pd, : which is 2010.3 , last year.
|
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 13 thank you for your clarification. 那你之前的回答不准,不是since PD for the
waiting time, 而是since now.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : 这里我的意思是2008年12月的从现在起等个一两年大概就可以file I-485了。 : 如果是2008年1月的,就大概相同于2007年12月,七八个月左右就可以了。
|
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 14 好像遇到一个比我还弱的,据说大潮以后,由于蝗虫般的烙印pd不在和我们捆绑,所以
按pd分配的剩余名额都给了pd靠后的三阿哥了。 您说我说得对马,楼主
【在 l****n 的大作中提到】 : SO预期太少了吧?
|
a*******d 发帖数: 4846 | |
r***k 发帖数: 13586 | 16 中国*1.5估计是因为中国男女太不平衡所以太多wsn找不到老婆,即使是结婚的一般也
只有一个小孩。而印度人老婆孩子一大堆,所以要*2以上。 |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 17 哈哈,我也是这么想的。但是主要是中国女人搬运过来的毕竟是少数,百分之六十以上
还是工作的。
【在 r***k 的大作中提到】 : 中国*1.5估计是因为中国男女太不平衡所以太多wsn找不到老婆,即使是结婚的一般也 : 只有一个小孩。而印度人老婆孩子一大堆,所以要*2以上。
|
y***n 发帖数: 6764 | 18 这个绝对是有道理的。
到美国以后才结婚:老中一般是比较倾向于在美国找婚配,回去搬运的一般来说不是条
件太差就是要求太高。但是老印清一色的是回国找(其实是家里早帮着找好的)
到美国以前就结婚生小孩的:老中父母最多一个(没办法,基本国策决定的),其他国
家包括印度的,就几个小孩都有可能了。
当然,搬运过来的配偶能办绿卡的几乎没有,但是在这里的也不是每个人都能办绿卡的
。但不管怎么说,从定性的角度上来讲,中国人的demand/perm ratio肯定应该不平均
的低,老印的要比平均的高。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : 哈哈,我也是这么想的。但是主要是中国女人搬运过来的毕竟是少数,百分之六十以上 : 还是工作的。
|
p*********n 发帖数: 288 | |
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 20 但是不要忘了相当一部分中国wsnv申请了niw. 记得以前看过一个shmu的数据,最近
几年postdoc什么的特别多
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : 哈哈,我也是这么想的。但是主要是中国女人搬运过来的毕竟是少数,百分之六十以上 : 还是工作的。
|
|
|
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 21 但愿NIW的增加被海龟抵消了,海龟能够找到回国的出路,也是好事。
【在 u**********s 的大作中提到】 : 但是不要忘了相当一部分中国wsnv申请了niw. 记得以前看过一个shmu的数据,最近 : 几年postdoc什么的特别多
|
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 22 Basically the cutting-off dates are decided by 2 factors: one is the number
of visas available, the other is how much you want to build the pending
inventory.
我把在一楼贴的数据与分析寄给了聱拜,他虽然不置可否,但是从回信的语气和内容看
来,我的思路是有可取之处的。
我觉得自己的PD是2011年初,还是稍安勿躁为好,静静等上三年吧。下面是别人的
分析,也有可取之处。
From US Non-Immigrants: EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?
If dates will only reach between PD June-July 2007 for EB2-India and China
for FY 2011 in September bulletin, what can we expect for FY 2012? We just
wanted to capture our comments from previous post on this topic.
What movement do we expect for EB2-IC in FY 2012?
It totally depends upon where we will end up in September visa bulletin.
Even if we will reach PD 08 July 2007, after that we still need 2874 more
visas for EB2-IC to cross PD July 2007. This is plainly from visible demand
used from currently released demand data, without including 'People Who
Missed the Boat" (PWMBs) during July 2007. Expected PWMB until July bulletin
cut-off date 08Mar07 was 1175, we did not even considered those numbers in
the calculations of 2560 visa numbers used for August visa bulletin movement
. We firmly believe any PWMBs until July visa bulletin have good chance to
get approved by September 30 or even in October, where USCIS usually tend to
use some unused visa numbers from the last fiscal year.
Other than those mentioned above, total PWMBs for EB2-IC until July 2007 is
around 10,605. Even if we assume that due to the economic recession and
other reasons mentioned, only 50% are eligible to pursue this, numbers still
come out to be 5,303. So to sum up, without even crossing EB2-IC PD of July
2007, for next fiscal year EB2-IC has demand of 5303+2874 = 8177.
Of these 8177 demand after 08 July 2007, EB2-I demand is 5032 and EB2-C will
be around 3145 (including PWMBs). Here we are not even consider porting
numbers. We will complete this analysis assuming no porting. Total demand of
8177 will be enough to keep dates stalled until Q1 and late Q2. Once DOS
will reach in Q2, just like this year it will start looking into half yearly
projected demand for EB1. If at this point, annual visa limit for the EB2-
IC (or any of the country) is exhausted due to above stated demand, it will
start looking into using any available unused visa numbers. Although, DOS/
USCIS are constrained to use only 30% of these numbers in first three
quarters (but they made exceptions this year), this move would totally
depend upon number of visas available.
Now for EB2-IC movement in FY 2012, it is usually based on available demand.
As we know that DOS will have no clue about this demand post PD July 2007,
so we can expect movement will be based on past number use; estimates of
future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and
Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements (quoted from our
previous article). Usually past trend has been around 3000 visa numbers each
month for EB2-IC. So even if expected spillover is 15000-20000, movement
will be only 5-8 months at most at first trial and error. If after this
movement, DOS will not receive this many applications, dates might move more
in next bulletin.
If this first trial and error will cause dates to move until PD March 2008
in late Q2 of FY2012, based on our estimation it will bring 18,264 EB2-I
application and 2,619 more EB2-C application. These numbers comes from PERM
data after applying I-140 conversion factor of 78%. Even in the case if we
consider most optimistic scenario that even after this due to economic
recession or other unforeseen reason only 75% are eligible to pursue this
anymore, total demand from Aug 2007 until March 2008 becomes – (0.75 x (
18264+2619)) = 15662.
Above numbers from Aug 2007-March 2008 plus EB2-IC demand from 08 July 07 to
cross July 2007 = 15662 + 8177 = 23,839. So any spillover received between
18000 + 5600 (annual limit) will be sufficient to cover demand upto Match
2008. I personally believe due to increasing backlog from EB1 and EB2-ROW,
we cannot expect much spillover next year from these categories.
Taking all this into account EB2-IC dates for EB2-IC can at most move into
PD March-May 2008 in late Q2 or early Q3. If spillover received is atleast
18K, dates might not retrogress beyond PD March 2008.
.
Above holds true only if dates will reach first week of July 2007 for this
fiscal year. Any dates between May-June 2007 for September bulletin means we
will need at least 21000 unused visa numbers other than EB2-IC annual limit
to see this scenario.
It should be noted no porting is considered in above scenario and PWMBs are
assumed 50% eligible. |
c**s 发帖数: 3796 | |
q******2 发帖数: 1368 | |
A**********g 发帖数: 987 | 25 这个分析看起来很让人depressing啊
08年的PD要到明年summer才能递485了, 简直有从天堂到地狱的感觉
number
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : Basically the cutting-off dates are decided by 2 factors: one is the number : of visas available, the other is how much you want to build the pending : inventory. : 我把在一楼贴的数据与分析寄给了聱拜,他虽然不置可否,但是从回信的语气和内容看 : 来,我的思路是有可取之处的。 : 我觉得自己的PD是2011年初,还是稍安勿躁为好,静静等上三年吧。下面是别人的 : 分析,也有可取之处。 : From US Non-Immigrants: EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012? : If dates will only reach between PD June-July 2007 for EB2-India and China : for FY 2011 in September bulletin, what can we expect for FY 2012? We just
|
M*N 发帖数: 435 | 26 我觉的挺正常的
我07年6月的PD还做好了最坏的打算, 就是明年夏天才可以交485
现在的人的胃口都被吊起来了
【在 A**********g 的大作中提到】 : 这个分析看起来很让人depressing啊 : 08年的PD要到明年summer才能递485了, 简直有从天堂到地狱的感觉 : : number
|
c**l 发帖数: 1022 | 27
,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : Basically the cutting-off dates are decided by 2 factors: one is the number : of visas available, the other is how much you want to build the pending : inventory. : 我把在一楼贴的数据与分析寄给了聱拜,他虽然不置可否,但是从回信的语气和内容看 : 来,我的思路是有可取之处的。 : 我觉得自己的PD是2011年初,还是稍安勿躁为好,静静等上三年吧。下面是别人的 : 分析,也有可取之处。 : From US Non-Immigrants: EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012? : If dates will only reach between PD June-July 2007 for EB2-India and China : for FY 2011 in September bulletin, what can we expect for FY 2012? We just
|
a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 28 朝三暮四的猴儿们
容看
人的
China
just
【在 A**********g 的大作中提到】 : 这个分析看起来很让人depressing啊 : 08年的PD要到明年summer才能递485了, 简直有从天堂到地狱的感觉 : : number
|
A**********g 发帖数: 987 | 29 太保守了吧,不是说有漆钱么, 怎么也到了
【在 M*N 的大作中提到】 : 我觉的挺正常的 : 我07年6月的PD还做好了最坏的打算, 就是明年夏天才可以交485 : 现在的人的胃口都被吊起来了
|
A**********g 发帖数: 987 | 30 吐不出象牙的狗
【在 a***x 的大作中提到】 : 朝三暮四的猴儿们 : : 容看 : 人的 : China : just
|
|
|
a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 31 汪汪!lol
【在 A**********g 的大作中提到】 : 吐不出象牙的狗
|
s*****m 发帖数: 2024 | 32 宠物gou?
【在 a***x 的大作中提到】 : 汪汪!lol
|
s*****m 发帖数: 2024 | 33 兄弟,我最近发了很多包子给你阿
,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : Basically the cutting-off dates are decided by 2 factors: one is the number : of visas available, the other is how much you want to build the pending : inventory. : 我把在一楼贴的数据与分析寄给了聱拜,他虽然不置可否,但是从回信的语气和内容看 : 来,我的思路是有可取之处的。 : 我觉得自己的PD是2011年初,还是稍安勿躁为好,静静等上三年吧。下面是别人的 : 分析,也有可取之处。 : From US Non-Immigrants: EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012? : If dates will only reach between PD June-July 2007 for EB2-India and China : for FY 2011 in September bulletin, what can we expect for FY 2012? We just
|
T******r 发帖数: 2937 | 34 08年的明年能地应该还不错吧
容看
人的
China
just
【在 A**********g 的大作中提到】 : 这个分析看起来很让人depressing啊 : 08年的PD要到明年summer才能递485了, 简直有从天堂到地狱的感觉 : : number
|
L***a 发帖数: 3674 | 35 关门!
放
【在 a***x 的大作中提到】 : 汪汪!lol
|
T******r 发帖数: 2937 | 36 握手
【在 M*N 的大作中提到】 : 我觉的挺正常的 : 我07年6月的PD还做好了最坏的打算, 就是明年夏天才可以交485 : 现在的人的胃口都被吊起来了
|
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 37 To express my thanks, I tried to join your club. But the website always
says "安全验证失败!!"
大纽约地区地产(NYCHouse)俱乐部
欢迎加入本俱乐部!
【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】 : 兄弟,我最近发了很多包子给你阿 : : ,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures.
|
s*****m 发帖数: 2024 | 38 妹妹,你的pd是那天的?
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】 : 关门! : 放
|
a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 39 乖
【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】 : 宠物gou?
|
a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 40 来不及啦
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】 : 关门! : 放
|
|
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s*****m 发帖数: 2024 | 41 阿?那我问问站务阿,应该不会阿
你看着不像坏人,哈哈
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : To express my thanks, I tried to join your club. But the website always : says "安全验证失败!!" : 大纽约地区地产(NYCHouse)俱乐部 : 欢迎加入本俱乐部!
|
L***a 发帖数: 3674 | 42 跑的还贼快?
【在 a***x 的大作中提到】 : 来不及啦
|
L***a 发帖数: 3674 | 43 回熟鸭子姐妹板大的话
俺是07年那一大波的
【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】 : 妹妹,你的pd是那天的?
|
z*****y 发帖数: 330 | |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 45 发信人: deliver (自动发信系统), 信区: NYCHouse
标 题: [通知] 恭喜 Helsinki 成为本俱乐部正式成员
发信站: BBS 未名空间站自动发信系统 (Fri Jul 22 11:36:19 2011)
【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
Helsinki 已经成为本俱乐部的正式成员, 特此通知. |
c**s 发帖数: 3796 | |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 48 如果大家不方便看图,可以点击回复(但是不必真的回复任何内容),然后看到链接,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures.
我自己很相信自己的这个分析,因为我的PD是2011年,所以决定现在回去静养,三年后再回本版折腾。
从07大潮清空后到拿到绿卡等待时间以及计算方法: |
L***a 发帖数: 3674 | |
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 50 thanks for sharing! 2 questions
(1)why China * 1.5, is it because of too many chinese wsn?
(2)years of waiting is since now or since PD? and the wait time is for 485
or for the card?
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t0/EB23/31390125.html
|
|
|
B*****g 发帖数: 34098 | |
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 52 谢谢解释。感觉你这个和神龙,rocketsfan的区别是那个 demand/perm ratio,你的
是1.5,他们似乎是2左右。我信你的了,少等几年。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : since PD, for I-485. : Chinese × 1.5 is my sample. Many Chinese wives work and have their own : PERM. Also there're many single people. Most Chinese have their children : born in U.S., only very few bring children from China to U.S. : : 485
|
l****n 发帖数: 3081 | |
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 54 doesn't look right for pd 2008? according to your table, they should have
submitted 485 by now?
【在 u**********s 的大作中提到】 : 谢谢解释。感觉你这个和神龙,rocketsfan的区别是那个 demand/perm ratio,你的 : 是1.5,他们似乎是2左右。我信你的了,少等几年。
|
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 55 the table says "to be filed"
【在 u**********s 的大作中提到】 : doesn't look right for pd 2008? according to your table, they should have : submitted 485 by now?
|
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 56 Confused... assume one pd is 2008.1, then if no SO, wait 2.3 yrs since pd,
which is 2010.3 , last year.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : the table says "to be filed"
|
l****n 发帖数: 3081 | |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 58 这里我的意思是2008年12月的从大潮清空之后起最多等个一两年大概就可以file I-485了。
如果是2008年1月的,就大概相同于2007年12月,最多等七八个月左右就可以了。
【在 u**********s 的大作中提到】 : Confused... assume one pd is 2008.1, then if no SO, wait 2.3 yrs since pd, : which is 2010.3 , last year.
|
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 59 thank you for your clarification. 那你之前的回答不准,不是since PD for the
waiting time, 而是since now.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : 这里我的意思是2008年12月的从大潮清空之后起最多等个一两年大概就可以file I-485了。 : 如果是2008年1月的,就大概相同于2007年12月,最多等七八个月左右就可以了。
|
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 60 好像遇到一个比我还弱的,据说大潮以后,由于蝗虫般的烙印pd不在和我们捆绑,所以
按pd分配的剩余名额都给了pd靠后的三阿哥了。 您说我说得对马,楼主
【在 l****n 的大作中提到】 : SO预期太少了吧?
|
|
|
a*******d 发帖数: 4846 | |
r***k 发帖数: 13586 | 62 中国*1.5估计是因为中国男女太不平衡所以太多wsn找不到老婆,即使是结婚的一般也
只有一个小孩。而印度人老婆孩子一大堆,所以要*2以上。 |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 63 哈哈,我也是这么想的。但是主要是中国女人搬运过来的毕竟是少数,百分之六十以上
还是工作的。
【在 r***k 的大作中提到】 : 中国*1.5估计是因为中国男女太不平衡所以太多wsn找不到老婆,即使是结婚的一般也 : 只有一个小孩。而印度人老婆孩子一大堆,所以要*2以上。
|
y***n 发帖数: 6764 | 64 这个绝对是有道理的。
到美国以后才结婚:老中一般是比较倾向于在美国找婚配,回去搬运的一般来说不是条
件太差就是要求太高。但是老印清一色的是回国找(其实是家里早帮着找好的)
到美国以前就结婚生小孩的:老中父母最多一个(没办法,基本国策决定的),其他国
家包括印度的,就几个小孩都有可能了。
当然,搬运过来的配偶能办绿卡的几乎没有,但是在这里的也不是每个人都能办绿卡的
。但不管怎么说,从定性的角度上来讲,中国人的demand/perm ratio肯定应该不平均
的低,老印的要比平均的高。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : 哈哈,我也是这么想的。但是主要是中国女人搬运过来的毕竟是少数,百分之六十以上 : 还是工作的。
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p*********n 发帖数: 288 | |
u**********s 发帖数: 315 | 66 但是不要忘了相当一部分中国wsnv申请了niw. 记得以前看过一个shmu的数据,最近
几年postdoc什么的特别多
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : 哈哈,我也是这么想的。但是主要是中国女人搬运过来的毕竟是少数,百分之六十以上 : 还是工作的。
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H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 67 但愿NIW的增加被海龟抵消了,海龟能够找到回国的出路,也是好事。
【在 u**********s 的大作中提到】 : 但是不要忘了相当一部分中国wsnv申请了niw. 记得以前看过一个shmu的数据,最近 : 几年postdoc什么的特别多
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H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 68 Basically the cutting-off dates are decided by 2 factors: one is the number
of visas available, the other is how much you want to build the pending
inventory.
我把在一楼贴的数据与分析寄给了聱拜,他虽然不置可否,但是从回信的语气和内容看
来,我的思路是有可取之处的。
我觉得自己的PD是2011年初,还是稍安勿躁为好,静静等上三年吧。下面是别人的
分析,也有可取之处。
From US Non-Immigrants: EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?
If dates will only reach between PD June-July 2007 for EB2-India and China
for FY 2011 in September bulletin, what can we expect for FY 2012? We just
wanted to capture our comments from previous post on this topic.
What movement do we expect for EB2-IC in FY 2012?
It totally depends upon where we will end up in September visa bulletin.
Even if we will reach PD 08 July 2007, after that we still need 2874 more
visas for EB2-IC to cross PD July 2007. This is plainly from visible demand
used from currently released demand data, without including 'People Who
Missed the Boat" (PWMBs) during July 2007. Expected PWMB until July bulletin
cut-off date 08Mar07 was 1175, we did not even considered those numbers in
the calculations of 2560 visa numbers used for August visa bulletin movement
. We firmly believe any PWMBs until July visa bulletin have good chance to
get approved by September 30 or even in October, where USCIS usually tend to
use some unused visa numbers from the last fiscal year.
Other than those mentioned above, total PWMBs for EB2-IC until July 2007 is
around 10,605. Even if we assume that due to the economic recession and
other reasons mentioned, only 50% are eligible to pursue this, numbers still
come out to be 5,303. So to sum up, without even crossing EB2-IC PD of July
2007, for next fiscal year EB2-IC has demand of 5303+2874 = 8177.
Of these 8177 demand after 08 July 2007, EB2-I demand is 5032 and EB2-C will
be around 3145 (including PWMBs). Here we are not even consider porting
numbers. We will complete this analysis assuming no porting. Total demand of
8177 will be enough to keep dates stalled until Q1 and late Q2. Once DOS
will reach in Q2, just like this year it will start looking into half yearly
projected demand for EB1. If at this point, annual visa limit for the EB2-
IC (or any of the country) is exhausted due to above stated demand, it will
start looking into using any available unused visa numbers. Although, DOS/
USCIS are constrained to use only 30% of these numbers in first three
quarters (but they made exceptions this year), this move would totally
depend upon number of visas available.
Now for EB2-IC movement in FY 2012, it is usually based on available demand.
As we know that DOS will have no clue about this demand post PD July 2007,
so we can expect movement will be based on past number use; estimates of
future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and
Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements (quoted from our
previous article). Usually past trend has been around 3000 visa numbers each
month for EB2-IC. So even if expected spillover is 15000-20000, movement
will be only 5-8 months at most at first trial and error. If after this
movement, DOS will not receive this many applications, dates might move more
in next bulletin.
If this first trial and error will cause dates to move until PD March 2008
in late Q2 of FY2012, based on our estimation it will bring 18,264 EB2-I
application and 2,619 more EB2-C application. These numbers comes from PERM
data after applying I-140 conversion factor of 78%. Even in the case if we
consider most optimistic scenario that even after this due to economic
recession or other unforeseen reason only 75% are eligible to pursue this
anymore, total demand from Aug 2007 until March 2008 becomes – (0.75 x (
18264+2619)) = 15662.
Above numbers from Aug 2007-March 2008 plus EB2-IC demand from 08 July 07 to
cross July 2007 = 15662 + 8177 = 23,839. So any spillover received between
18000 + 5600 (annual limit) will be sufficient to cover demand upto Match
2008. I personally believe due to increasing backlog from EB1 and EB2-ROW,
we cannot expect much spillover next year from these categories.
Taking all this into account EB2-IC dates for EB2-IC can at most move into
PD March-May 2008 in late Q2 or early Q3. If spillover received is atleast
18K, dates might not retrogress beyond PD March 2008.
.
Above holds true only if dates will reach first week of July 2007 for this
fiscal year. Any dates between May-June 2007 for September bulletin means we
will need at least 21000 unused visa numbers other than EB2-IC annual limit
to see this scenario.
It should be noted no porting is considered in above scenario and PWMBs are
assumed 50% eligible. |
c**s 发帖数: 3796 | |
q******2 发帖数: 1368 | |
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A**********g 发帖数: 987 | 71 这个分析看起来很让人depressing啊
08年的PD要到明年summer才能递485了, 简直有从天堂到地狱的感觉
number
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : Basically the cutting-off dates are decided by 2 factors: one is the number : of visas available, the other is how much you want to build the pending : inventory. : 我把在一楼贴的数据与分析寄给了聱拜,他虽然不置可否,但是从回信的语气和内容看 : 来,我的思路是有可取之处的。 : 我觉得自己的PD是2011年初,还是稍安勿躁为好,静静等上三年吧。下面是别人的 : 分析,也有可取之处。 : From US Non-Immigrants: EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012? : If dates will only reach between PD June-July 2007 for EB2-India and China : for FY 2011 in September bulletin, what can we expect for FY 2012? We just
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M*N 发帖数: 435 | 72 我觉的挺正常的
我07年6月的PD还做好了最坏的打算, 就是明年夏天才可以交485
现在的人的胃口都被吊起来了
【在 A**********g 的大作中提到】 : 这个分析看起来很让人depressing啊 : 08年的PD要到明年summer才能递485了, 简直有从天堂到地狱的感觉 : : number
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c**l 发帖数: 1022 | 73
,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : 如果大家不方便看图,可以点击回复(但是不必真的回复任何内容),然后看到链接,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures. : 我自己很相信自己的这个分析,因为我的PD是2011年,所以决定现在回去静养,三年后再回本版折腾。 : 从07大潮清空后到拿到绿卡等待时间以及计算方法:
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a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 74 朝三暮四的猴儿们
容看
人的
China
just
【在 A**********g 的大作中提到】 : 这个分析看起来很让人depressing啊 : 08年的PD要到明年summer才能递485了, 简直有从天堂到地狱的感觉 : : number
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A**********g 发帖数: 987 | 75 太保守了吧,不是说有漆钱么, 怎么也到了
【在 M*N 的大作中提到】 : 我觉的挺正常的 : 我07年6月的PD还做好了最坏的打算, 就是明年夏天才可以交485 : 现在的人的胃口都被吊起来了
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A**********g 发帖数: 987 | 76 吐不出象牙的狗
【在 a***x 的大作中提到】 : 朝三暮四的猴儿们 : : 容看 : 人的 : China : just
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a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 77 汪汪!lol
【在 A**********g 的大作中提到】 : 吐不出象牙的狗
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s*****m 发帖数: 2024 | 78 宠物gou?
【在 a***x 的大作中提到】 : 汪汪!lol
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s*****m 发帖数: 2024 | 79 兄弟,我最近发了很多包子给你阿
,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : 如果大家不方便看图,可以点击回复(但是不必真的回复任何内容),然后看到链接,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures. : 我自己很相信自己的这个分析,因为我的PD是2011年,所以决定现在回去静养,三年后再回本版折腾。 : 从07大潮清空后到拿到绿卡等待时间以及计算方法:
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T******r 发帖数: 2937 | 80 08年的明年能地应该还不错吧
容看
人的
China
just
【在 A**********g 的大作中提到】 : 这个分析看起来很让人depressing啊 : 08年的PD要到明年summer才能递485了, 简直有从天堂到地狱的感觉 : : number
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L***a 发帖数: 3674 | 81 关门!
放
【在 a***x 的大作中提到】 : 汪汪!lol
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T******r 发帖数: 2937 | 82 握手
【在 M*N 的大作中提到】 : 我觉的挺正常的 : 我07年6月的PD还做好了最坏的打算, 就是明年夏天才可以交485 : 现在的人的胃口都被吊起来了
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H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 83 To express my thanks, I tried to join your club. But the website always
says "安全验证失败!!"
大纽约地区地产(NYCHouse)俱乐部
欢迎加入本俱乐部!
【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】 : 兄弟,我最近发了很多包子给你阿 : : ,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures.
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s*****m 发帖数: 2024 | 84 妹妹,你的pd是那天的?
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】 : 关门! : 放
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a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 85 乖
【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】 : 宠物gou?
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a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 86 来不及啦
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】 : 关门! : 放
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s*****m 发帖数: 2024 | 87 阿?那我问问站务阿,应该不会阿
你看着不像坏人,哈哈
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : To express my thanks, I tried to join your club. But the website always : says "安全验证失败!!" : 大纽约地区地产(NYCHouse)俱乐部 : 欢迎加入本俱乐部!
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L***a 发帖数: 3674 | 88 跑的还贼快?
【在 a***x 的大作中提到】 : 来不及啦
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L***a 发帖数: 3674 | 89 回熟鸭子姐妹板大的话
俺是07年那一大波的
【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】 : 妹妹,你的pd是那天的?
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z*****y 发帖数: 330 | |
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H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 91 发信人: deliver (自动发信系统), 信区: NYCHouse
标 题: [通知] 恭喜 Helsinki 成为本俱乐部正式成员
发信站: BBS 未名空间站自动发信系统 (Fri Jul 22 11:36:19 2011)
【此篇文章是由自动发信系统所张贴】
Helsinki 已经成为本俱乐部的正式成员, 特此通知. |
c**s 发帖数: 3796 | |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | |
a****9 发帖数: 642 | |
h*******1 发帖数: 242 | |
s*********g 发帖数: 46 | |
p*****a 发帖数: 3634 | 97 I don't do any analysis but just use some common sense.
2008/12 PD has been current in 2011/12. It is 3 years.
In consideration of high volume of 07大潮 and low volume of 2009 PD, any PD
after 2008 should be current significantly less than 3 years.
In your case, it can be expected that 2011 PD will be current in 2 to 2.5
year (from the PD).
2010 PD should be current in 2 to 2.5 year (from the PD).
,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures.
三年后再回本版折腾。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : 如果大家不方便看图,可以点击回复(但是不必真的回复任何内容),然后看到链接,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures. : 我自己很相信自己的这个分析,因为我的PD是2011年,所以决定现在回去静养,三年后再回本版折腾。 : 从07大潮清空后到拿到绿卡等待时间以及计算方法:
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H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 98 I wish you're right. I'll give you baozi in the next 3 minutes.
PD
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】 : I don't do any analysis but just use some common sense. : 2008/12 PD has been current in 2011/12. It is 3 years. : In consideration of high volume of 07大潮 and low volume of 2009 PD, any PD : after 2008 should be current significantly less than 3 years. : In your case, it can be expected that 2011 PD will be current in 2 to 2.5 : year (from the PD). : 2010 PD should be current in 2 to 2.5 year (from the PD). : : ,copy the links to your browser to see complete pictures. : 三年后再回本版折腾。
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a**********r 发帖数: 1069 | 99 中国人的预测一向很悲观,不用认真。好多人还说清空07大潮要10年,现在不都拿着绿
卡偷着乐呢吧? |
f******d 发帖数: 202 | 100 感觉一个坏消息,一个好消息。
坏消息是我也是2011年的,看着还要等3-4年,真伤心。也许前面排队的人都是等这么
长,可就因当年公司不给申请,错过大潮,一直等到现在。
好消息是有LZ同行,估计不会无聊和无助。起码能有明白的人。
再次感谢。 |
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O7 发帖数: 321 | 101 满足把,我们一起来的A3还有人现在140还没有挤上去呢
我们都c了。。。
【在 f******d 的大作中提到】 : 感觉一个坏消息,一个好消息。 : 坏消息是我也是2011年的,看着还要等3-4年,真伤心。也许前面排队的人都是等这么 : 长,可就因当年公司不给申请,错过大潮,一直等到现在。 : 好消息是有LZ同行,估计不会无聊和无助。起码能有明白的人。 : 再次感谢。
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a***x 发帖数: 26368 | 102 你俩date吧
【在 f******d 的大作中提到】 : 感觉一个坏消息,一个好消息。 : 坏消息是我也是2011年的,看着还要等3-4年,真伤心。也许前面排队的人都是等这么 : 长,可就因当年公司不给申请,错过大潮,一直等到现在。 : 好消息是有LZ同行,估计不会无聊和无助。起码能有明白的人。 : 再次感谢。
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m****p 发帖数: 865 | 103 Helsinki,这个表里说的等待时间是07大潮清空之后到pd current。 08的显然等了不
到3个月。 |
H******i 发帖数: 4704 | 104 Better than anyone expected.
I thought that I was too optimistic. But actually I was too conservative.
【在 m****p 的大作中提到】 : Helsinki,这个表里说的等待时间是07大潮清空之后到pd current。 08的显然等了不 : 到3个月。
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t**c 发帖数: 7480 | 105 主要是这个非线性得太厉害了
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : Better than anyone expected. : I thought that I was too optimistic. But actually I was too conservative.
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m****p 发帖数: 865 | 106 Yes. That's Mr. O unpredictable.
Bur recent unpredictable movements are really appreciated.
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】 : Better than anyone expected. : I thought that I was too optimistic. But actually I was too conservative.
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