J**G
发帖数: 3310 | |
c****r
发帖数: 969 | 2 也许该问什么时候能交485，没交过485的，要name check 等等，可能要花很久
【在 J**G 的大作中提到】
: 大侠给估计一下
|
J**G
发帖数: 3310 | 3 那13年能交485吗？
【在 c****r 的大作中提到】
: 也许该问什么时候能交485，没交过485的，要name check 等等，可能要花很久
|
d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 4 要是明年还有这么多SO，明夏就能交，然后申个AP，赶在12月前回国上船。 |
c****r
发帖数: 969 | 5 没绿卡的不能上船 hoho
【在 d**u 的大作中提到】
: 要是明年还有这么多SO，明夏就能交，然后申个AP，赶在12月前回国上船。
|
H**E
发帖数: 620 | 6 see the post by someone else :
PERM approved AFTER JULY 2007:
EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K
EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K |
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 7 After June the demand will be around 20k.
According to Indian guys, the demand before Jan 2008 should be around 20k.
Total demand before Jan 2008 should be around 40k.
In this summer we should have additional 16k-20k spillover.
After this summer, we should have around 20-24k demand before PD 2008.1.1.
In the next summer they should be able to clear all the cases before 2008.1.
1.
【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: see the post by someone else :
: PERM approved AFTER JULY 2007:
: EB- INDIA
: PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
: PD2008 - 23.3k
: PD2009 - 16.0k
: PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
: Total - 74.5K
: EB- China
: PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
|
H**E
发帖数: 620 | 8 how about 2008 ? do they have any demand data for 2008 ?
1.
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: After June the demand will be around 20k.
: According to Indian guys, the demand before Jan 2008 should be around 20k.
: Total demand before Jan 2008 should be around 40k.
: In this summer we should have additional 16k-20k spillover.
: After this summer, we should have around 20-24k demand before PD 2008.1.1.
: In the next summer they should be able to clear all the cases before 2008.1.
: 1.
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 9 Indian has 24k PERM in 2008 and China has 4k PERM in 2008.
Most of these PERM are EB2.
Let's assume 80% of them are EB2 and every EB2 has a family member.
1.)The total demand from PERM will be (24+4)*0.8*2=45k.
2.)If NIW demand is half of PERM, then NIW demand will be around 22k.
The total demand from Jan.2008-Dec.2008 will be around 67k.
Indian demand: 57k
China demand: 10k
【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: how about 2008 ? do they have any demand data for 2008 ?
:
: 1.
|
f****l
发帖数: 8042 | 10 我和lz同一个月也。LD13年H1到期，也是在盼望到时候能交上485先。 |
|
|
p******x
发帖数: 232 | 11 Good math， but 80% assumption does not make much sense.
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: Indian has 24k PERM in 2008 and China has 4k PERM in 2008.
: Most of these PERM are EB2.
: Let's assume 80% of them are EB2 and every EB2 has a family member.
: 1.)The total demand from PERM will be (24+4)*0.8*2=45k.
: 2.)If NIW demand is half of PERM, then NIW demand will be around 22k.
: The total demand from Jan.2008-Dec.2008 will be around 67k.
: Indian demand: 57k
: China demand: 10k
|
l****l
发帖数: 3394 | 12 NIW is way less than half of PERM. And the applicability of the PERM number
is overrated anyway. |
m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 13 你这算的也太粗糙了
4000的perm中有效的大约3700 （换工作等等有损耗）
然后1个EB2对应2个demand太conservative了，大约应该1：1.6左右，比如没结婚的，
或者两个都工作都eb2。。。
NIW绝对没有50%，考虑到还有很多NIW会申请EB1，所以有效数字给个多点的大约20%(其
实已经很conservative了）
2008年的demand
3700×1.2×1.6大约是7000左右，这是非常conservative的估计了。
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: Indian has 24k PERM in 2008 and China has 4k PERM in 2008.
: Most of these PERM are EB2.
: Let's assume 80% of them are EB2 and every EB2 has a family member.
: 1.)The total demand from PERM will be (24+4)*0.8*2=45k.
: 2.)If NIW demand is half of PERM, then NIW demand will be around 22k.
: The total demand from Jan.2008-Dec.2008 will be around 67k.
: Indian demand: 57k
: China demand: 10k
|
H**E
发帖数: 620 | 14 也许另一个比较准确的估算办法是比较2006，2007和2008 的PERM数据和每年的TOTAL
DEMAND 的比例。
这几年里每年的 TOTAL DEMAND / PERM 的比例应该是差不多的。
这三年的PERM数据都有。 total DEMAND 2006年已经知道了； 2007有七月前的。根据
2006 和 2007年的比例应该可以大致推算出2008年及以后的每年TOTAL DEMAND。
不知道哪里可以找到这样的数据/分析。 |
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 15 I already analyzed it. Currently the monthly demand for China is around 700/
month based on 6800 PERM per year. The future demand will be:
2008: 400-500/month
2009/2010: 200-300/month
Year --2010---2009------ 2008 ---------2007------------2006------------2005
India--21000---16000------23420---------24573-----------22298-----------1350
China--2300-----2200-------4100---------6846------------6779-------------868
You can see the Indian PERM level kept around 20k from 2006-2008. Indian
PERM is stunning 10 times of China PERM!!!
1. Indian 2006/2007 PERM was 3.5 times of China PERM.
2. Indian 2008 PERM was 6 times of China PERM.
3. Indian 2009 PERM was 8 times of China PERM.
4. Indian 2010 PERM was 10 times of China PERM.
You can see the Indian people are growing and growing.........China PERM is
becoming smaller and smaller.
I don't think Indian demand will go lower and the demand will be around 1500
per month.Our China PERM went down in 2008, so our demand will go lower,
only half of current demand, so after 2008 our demand will be around 400/
month.
My estimation of monthly demand:
1. 2008: Indian 1600/month, China 400-500/month
2. 2009: Indian 1200/month, China 200-300/month
3. 2010: Indian 1600/month, China 200-300/month
Conclusion:
We have to rely on our own quota after 2007, but at the same time our own
demand will not be too high. We will move PD one year ahead per fiscal year.
【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: 也许另一个比较准确的估算办法是比较2006，2007和2008 的PERM数据和每年的TOTAL
: DEMAND 的比例。
: 这几年里每年的 TOTAL DEMAND / PERM 的比例应该是差不多的。
: 这三年的PERM数据都有。 total DEMAND 2006年已经知道了； 2007有七月前的。根据
: 2006 和 2007年的比例应该可以大致推算出2008年及以后的每年TOTAL DEMAND。
: 不知道哪里可以找到这样的数据/分析。
|
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 16 1. NIW is plenty........All my friends with PD in engineering are doing NIW.
Meachnical Engineering/Civil Engineering/Petroleum Engineering, etc.
Additionaly many people did NIW even with Master's degree in engineering.
Many companies are not very glad to file PERM, so many Chinese filed NIW.
2. Many of these people filed PERM/NIW in 2008 are married now. If they
filed PERM/NIW when they were 25-28 years old, now they are 28-31, it's very
likely they got married. One lady in my company are filing 4 visas based on
her PERM because she had two foreign born babies plus her husband.
I admit that my original estimation was a little high because I didn't have the time to calculate carefully. I agree that 6000 is a reasonalbe estimation.
【在 m********e 的大作中提到】
: 你这算的也太粗糙了
: 4000的perm中有效的大约3700 （换工作等等有损耗）
: 然后1个EB2对应2个demand太conservative了，大约应该1：1.6左右，比如没结婚的，
: 或者两个都工作都eb2。。。
: NIW绝对没有50%，考虑到还有很多NIW会申请EB1，所以有效数字给个多点的大约20%(其
: 实已经很conservative了）
: 2008年的demand
: 3700×1.2×1.6大约是7000左右，这是非常conservative的估计了。
|
j******0
发帖数: 558 | 17 it si difficult, so many Indians
I gusee some time in 2014
【在 J**G 的大作中提到】
: 大侠给估计一下
|
d*****g
发帖数: 1538 | |
