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发帖数: 16371 | 1 June 1, 2012, 10:50 A.M. ET
Apple: How Many $2K TVs Could They Sell? Asks Piper
By Tiernan Ray
Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster this morning opines that it’s a matter of “
not if, but when,” Apple (AAPL) will introduce its own branded television
set, citing his “checks” over the course of the last week and also from
the past two years.
Munster, who has an Outperform rating on Apple shares, and a $910 price
target, reiterates a view that such a device could be unveiled “late this
year” and go on sale in the first half of next year.
An aluminum casing and a radical streamlining of the wires for a TV would be
just a couple of features of an Apple model, he thinks, along with an LCD-
based display given the high cost of organic light-emitting diode (OLED)
technologies:
We expect the TV to include Siri and compatibility with third party devices
as well as potential integration with content guides, offering consumers
improved control which should lead to greater value from their monthly cable
subscription. We note that cable companies could charge a fee for consumers
to use Apple Televisions ($5-10/month similar to cable box rental fees).
Some investors do not believe Apple will be able to gain control of cable
interfaces due to advertising on the interface, but we note that the ads are
typically house ads and are not significant revenue contributors.
The TV might cost $1,500 to $2,000, he thinks and come in 42-inch to 55-inch
sets, based on the standard gear for a home entertainment system these days
, assuming a 20% markup for an Apple model, which he sees as customary for
the company’s products.
How many could they sell? Munster sees iPhone sales as a guide:
We note that in its first full year (CY08), the iPhone sold 13.7 million
units, which represented ~10% of total smartphones. While we acknowledge
that the iPhone was sold at a subsidized price for many of the units, we
believe Apple could capture similar market share of connected TVs in its
first year. Piper Jaffray Analyst Michael Olson estimates the 2013 connected
TV market at 110 million units. We believe Apple could ultimately capture 5
-10% of the market in the first full year. Given this range of sales (5.5-11
million) and a $1,750 ASP, we note the television could add 4-8% to CY13
revenue.
Apple shares today are down $8.95, or 1.6%, at $568.78. |
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