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全部话题 - 话题: yellen
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c*******o
发帖数: 3829
1
估计夜轮上台又是大阳棒伺候
10/09/2013: Yellen was officially nominated to replace Bernanke as head of
the Federal Reserve. 花街大阳棒伺候
12/20/20, 2013, the U.S. Senate voted 59–34 for cloture on Yellen's
nomination. 花街大阳棒伺候
01/06/2014, Yellen was confirmed as Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve.花街大
阳棒伺候
1/31/2014 or 2/3/2014 ????
l*********m
发帖数: 16971
2
来自主题: Stock版 - 你信吗?
There has been a leak at the Federal Reserve.
In a statement on Friday, the Fed said its in-house economic forecasts
compiled by its staff ahead of the June FOMC meeting were accidentally
published on June 29.
As a result, the Fed published those documents on its website, and you can
view them here.
The documents include projections for the unemployment rate, inflation, and
gross domestic product.
These projections are not the forecast from the FOMC — the Fed committee
that establishes monetary ... 阅读全帖
y***r
发帖数: 16594
3
叶大妈这工作也不好做。。。。。
Market participants warned that the Yellen must walk a fine line in her
testimony. Too dovish a posture and she could raise alarms about the economy
, while too hawkish a posture threatens to roil stocks, expecting punishing
rate increases amid a world-wide economic slowdown.
“Janet Yellen had to be dovish enough so as not to spook the market but
hawkish enough to signal that the economy is still growing and she achieved
that,” said Kelly Bogdanov, vice president and portfolio an... 阅读全帖
m*****t
发帖数: 1987
4
来自主题: Stock版 - 今天联储讲话都说点啥?
不痛不痒的,快像我党领导人的讲话了
In a get together with the prior three chairs of the Federal Reserve, Janet
Yellen repeated that the Fed remains on path for a gradual set of rate hikes
. Yellen said the U.S. consumer, supported by progress in the labor market,
is propelling the U.S. economy forward despite global headwinds and that she
does not see the December rate hike as a mistake. She said most of her FOMC
colleagues expect to overshoot the Fed's long-term 4.5 percent unemployment
goal but are not seeking... 阅读全帖
y******r
发帖数: 2986
5
FED希望加息,保证美元的信誉,防止政府因为欠债而崩盘。可是今年正好大选,而
Trump不喜欢Yellen。如果我是Yellen,我会不加息,尽量让民主党上台,让我再安心做
几年,或许以后还有机会来加强信誉。就算最后政府崩了,只要不在我的任期,我就放
心了。最后结论,要是Yellen自私一点儿,肯定11月份前不会加息!
a****o
发帖数: 6612
6
首先,靶子你自己先树的。你在结论中是川普犯的五个错误。我觉得你说的四个都不对
,就被你说成捧川普的臭脚了。
你如果只是分析经济和股市,就拿事实来说话。加息是Yellen任期就开始了的,缩表的
计划也是Yellen任期就提出并开始实施的。从你的结论里,美联储的加息缩表成了川普
的错误。这里又把理由改成没有继续任命Yellen造成了不确定因素。川普自己就是个最
大的不确定因素--很方便把错误归结到川普身上。
你的博客前面总结数据和分析很好。但是结论关于川普的“错误”显画蛇添足。你提到
这些“错误”已经是即成事实。对于像我这样的“屁民”来说,根本无力去抗争。你要
是分析这些“错误”在将来产生的影响,长期的也好,短期的也好,比拿川普出来批斗
一番,看你博客的读者容易接受多了。
N*****d
发帖数: 9872
7
来自主题: Stock版 - 要出大事了
2007 Bernanke Believes Housing Mess Contained
https://www.forbes.com/2007/05/17/bernanke-subprime-speech-markets-equity-cx
_er_0516markets02.html#78bcfa1710e1
2017 Fed's Yellen expects no new financial crisis in 'our lifetimes'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen/feds-yellen-expects-no-new
-financial-crisis-in-our-lifetimes-idUSKBN19I2I5
g****t
发帖数: 31659
8
来自主题: Detective版 - [bssd]跳水的原因 (转载)
【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: guvest (我爱你老婆Anna), 信区: Stock
标 题: [bssd]跳水的原因
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Aug 26 14:28:40 2016, 美东)
今天还是挺明显的吧?
Yellen讲话暴涨。
Fischer讲话之后暴跌。
时间上是不是也对的上?我怀疑是
Yellen讲话之后,发现情况不对,有被捧
杀的迹象。Fischer临时改剧本。
其实我觉得吧,FED的主要任务是调节price return的平方,
不是return。return的高低,是企业自己和政府管的。
如果各种暴涨暴跌,那就是FED的责任。
只要不各种暴涨暴跌,那全球就有一个比较好的经济环境,
可以正常贸易和生产。
华尔街反正是开赌场的。腰里别着牌,见谁跟谁来。
但是如果暴涨暴跌,引起大面积赌客都被憋死了,那赌场就距离关门
差不多了。
另外今天这段挺合乎逻辑的。Utility今年涨了那么多,
跌一下不是无所谓么。
最后来个喜闻乐见的猜大盘:今天微跌。0.2%以内吧。
a*******m
发帖数: 14194
9
美国贫富差距不断拉大这个事情,不止奥巴马这一时期,
很长时间了,跟美国的社会体制,政治体制,财税体制都有关系,
等我有时间了,再跟你解释。
你先看个新闻吧。
耶伦:美国贫富差距日益拉大令人担忧
http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/20141017/213820572862.s
美联储(FED)主席耶伦(Janet Louise Yellen)周五(10月17日)表示,美国贫富差距日益
拉大让她“十分”担心。她在一份演讲稿中详细对此一充满政治意味的议题做出评论,
称美国民众应该问的是这是否符合美国的价值观。
美联储(FED)主席耶伦(Janet Louise Yellen)周五(10月17日)表示,美国贫富差距
日益拉大让她“十分”担心。她在一份演讲稿中详细对此一充满政治意味的议题做出评
论,称美国民众应该问的是这是否符合美国的价值观。
全球金融市场最近数日面临疯狂抛盘而下跌,不过耶伦并未就市场波动或货币政策
置评。她反而将焦点放在贫富差距,她称贫富差距过去数十年在美国经济复苏中持续扩
大。
“美国贫富不均的程度及持续扩大的情形让我感到非常忧心... 阅读全帖
a*******m
发帖数: 14194
10
这一波的贫富差距持续拉大,
跟里根上台之后,共和党的各种减税有关系。
还跟,分配模式改变有关系,
比如50年代,一个CEO就拿几十个工人的工资,
今天搞到,一个CEO拿上千个工人的工资。
还有其他很多因素,我今天没空分析了。
最后就说一点,美国人爱怎么闹,就怎么闹,中国人没事别瞎搀和。
别自己引火烧身!
发信人: awaydream (大剑一挥风雷动,不畏豪强斩蛇虫。), 信区: Military
标 题: Re: 给富人征税 Vs 给穷人减福利 对在美中国wsn的影响分析
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 23 19:04:14 2012, 美东)
就算美国政府真的持续砍老黑,老模的救命钱,
华人千万别出来给政府站台,说什么不该养懒汉,
他们活该之类的话。
人家本来就快过不下去,你要还不长眼,给人家上眼药,
到时候骚乱一来,等着煞笔吧。
我提醒大家一下,不要干傻事。
今天灌得有点多,就这样吧,88。
贫富差距拉大问题正引起全球高度关注
2014年
最近,美国经济与人口统计专家HarryDent发表惊人评论,他强调,美国贫富差距
过于悬殊,将会出现较大调整,美国经济甚至可... 阅读全帖

发帖数: 1
11
【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: Yellen (MMT负利率Okay), 信区: Stock
标 题: 把本大妈去年的贴再贴一次:华人在美国反美就是找死
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Mar 22 10:39:40 2020, 美东)
总结: 要么低调,要么赶快离开。不要等到你家孩子上学莫名其妙失踪了,再来后悔。
发信人: Yellen (加息加到4%), 信区: Stock
标 题: 本大妈说一句吧:拿华人和犹太人比是没有意义的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu May 23 01:07:56 2019, 美东)
1. 中国是14亿人口大国,以色列是600万人小国,以色列再强对美国都不构成威胁,中
国现在已经被认为对美国是致命威胁。正因为以色列不对美国构成威胁,犹太裔美国人
再爱以色列都没问题,在美华人极不一样,会被本土人认为是大威胁,这里本土人包括
白,黑,西。
2.相似于华人,阿拉伯人(总人口过亿),或者回教徒(总人口过10亿),一旦与美国
矛盾激化,也会被认为是大威胁。印度人也一样,只不过现在印度还很弱,不对美国构
成威胁。
3.一般来... 阅读全帖

发帖数: 1
12
四月就说好了。是白宫和耶伦之间的秘密会议。 估计是不要加息,一定要继续撒钱,
让经济指数一片大好。
Infowars.com - APRIL 18, 2016
This week, President Obama and Vice President Biden held a hastily arranged
secret meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen.
http://www.infowars.com/what-did-fed-chairman-yellen-tell-obama/
d*********2
发帖数: 48111
13
你别逗了。
1) trump初选的时候就是这个主张了。 我当时还发过帖子, 我LD因为这一点更支持
Ted, 因为Ted是彻底repeal
2)不政治追杀是美国的政治传统, 尼克松也都被赦免了
3)Yellen打从上任起就是背锅的, 让她在任内升息。 现在不一定有人愿意上去背锅。
而且只要yellen肯加息, 换不换都无所谓。 何况Trump的经济主张也是需要印钱宽松
的。
你什么都不懂的,就不要出来现眼了。
g******t
发帖数: 18158
14
来自主题: USANews版 - 说下加息这个事
https://www.businessinsider.com/we-are-in-a-bubble-trump-debate-attacks-
federal-reserve-chair-yellen-2016-9
'We are in a bubble': Trump says the economy is unstable
Sep. 26, 2016, 9:46 PM
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is going after Janet Yellen
again, claiming that the Federal Reserve is creating an investment bubble.
During the first presidential debate, Trump said that the economy is having
"the worst revival of an economy since the Great Depression" and that
nothing in the ... 阅读全帖
g******t
发帖数: 18158
15
来自主题: USANews版 - big, fat, ugly bubble
https://www.businessinsider.com/we-are-in-a-bubble-trump-debate-attacks-
federal-reserve-chair-yellen-2016-9
'We are in a bubble': Trump says the economy is unstable
Sep. 26, 2016, 9:46 PM
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is going after Janet Yellen
again, claiming that the Federal Reserve is creating an investment bubble.
During the first presidential debate, Trump said that the economy is having
"the worst revival of an economy since the Great Depression" and that
nothing in the ... 阅读全帖
s*******h
发帖数: 1361
16
来自主题: Investment版 - 请教目前状况下买bond的方法
I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help op
and others with a better understanding.
1) We are in a low rates environment, and Fed says rates will surely go up
in the next year, in the next 10 years and even maybe in the next 100 years.
Therefore if I buy a bond (or a bond fund) and hold it, my position will
lose value w... 阅读全帖
s*******h
发帖数: 1361
17
来自主题: Investment版 - 请教目前状况下买bond的方法
I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help op
and others with a better understanding.
1) We are in a low rates environment, and Fed says rates will surely go up
in the next year, in the next 10 years and even maybe in the next 100 years.
Therefore if I buy a bond (or a bond fund) and hold it, my position will
lose value w... 阅读全帖
c*******a
发帖数: 1879
18
【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: Yellen (加息加到4%), 信区: Military
标 题: Tesla又出大事,老中码男的model X撞隔离墙失火身亡 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Mar 27 14:29:44 2018, 美东)
发信人: Yellen (加息加到4%), 信区: Automobile
标 题: Tesla又出大事,老中码男的model X撞隔离墙失火身亡
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Mar 27 14:24:09 2018, 美东)
https://www.facebook.com/NBCBayArea/videos/10155221169526990/
A driver who died after his Tesla Model X went up in flames Friday morning
on Hwy 101 in Mountain View has been identified as 38-year-old Wei Huang of
San Mateo. http://n... 阅读全帖
r******e
发帖数: 289
19
The best rate so far came before the Columbus’ Day and left after the
holiday was gone. People always ask when next round of good rate will be
coming. If you have not heard QE II, you should know that even as an
ordinary mortgage rate shopper.
Recently, mortgage rate is not controlled either by black Friday or stock
prices rally, it is driven by Fed’s Quantity Easing program and how the
market is reacting to its investment.
Next meeting is supposed to be held on November 3rd and 4th. A lot of
s... 阅读全帖
s****r
发帖数: 5546
20
Fed’s Yellen: QE3 May Be Warranted for Stimulus
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-21/fed-s-yellen-says-qe3-
d******8
发帖数: 1972
21
Reuters) - The European debt crisis is raising the odds of a U.S. recession,
with economic contraction more likely than not by early 2012, according to
research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank.
While it is difficult to gauge the odds precisely, an analysis of leading U.
S. economic indicators suggests a rising chance of a recession through the
end of the year and into early next year, researchers at the regional Fed
bank wrote on Monday. The risk of recession recedes after the second... 阅读全帖
d******8
发帖数: 1972
22
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday left monetary policy on hold but said
financial market turbulence posed threats to economic growth, leaving the
door open to further easing next year.
Getty Images
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
The Fed characterized the U.S. economy as expanding moderately despite an
apparent slowing in global growth, though it added that unemployment
remains elevated and housing activity de... 阅读全帖
P**B
发帖数: 1051
23
来自主题: Stock版 - 赶紧买吧,QE4 要来了!
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Janet Yellen, President Barack Obama’s pick to
lead the Federal Reserve, defended the central bank’s unconventional asset
purchase program, calling it the best way to get the economy back to normal.
“I believe that supporting the recovery today is the surest path to
returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy,” Yellen said.
n*******3
发帖数: 347
24
YELLEN: GLOBAL MARKET SHIFTS NOT A BIG RISK TO U.S. OUTLOOK
YELLEN SAY FED TO `CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR EMERGING RISKS'
赤果果挤钱过来。
c*******o
发帖数: 3829
25
来自主题: Stock版 - 今天这个剧本如何
FOMC出来,暴跌。Yellen讲话暴涨暴跌暴涨,最后Yellen高潮,大盘新高。
c*******o
发帖数: 3829
26
来自主题: Stock版 - 今天这个剧本如何
看清楚了:FOMC出来,暴跌。Yellen讲话暴涨暴跌暴涨,最后Yellen高潮。
j**l
发帖数: 486
27
来自主题: Stock版 - 苹果涨 1%, NFLX 得跌 20%
最近听说 NFLX 的多头把 NFLX 卖了买 AAPL, 这么看起来还真有点像。
最近花姐怕 PUTIN 的拳头, YELLEN 的大嘴巴, 花姐也得玩 AAPL IBM JNJ 这些大树
靠, 块头大才不怕 PUTIN 的拳头和 YELLEN 的大嘴巴。
E******w
发帖数: 2616
28
来自主题: Stock版 - 女人掌控FED
事实上就是以前Bernanke多次意外的发言,对市场的影响也在几天之内就被消除了。
Yellen这次,肯定是有人早就想甩卖,正好有个合适的借口而已。这些人资金量都很大
的,怎么可能听一句话那么快随意做这样的决定。
大户的行动一般早就策划好了,而且需要很长时间慢慢执行。如果你看不出迹象,只根
据Yellen一两句话来判断,那会被玩得很惨的。
a**********2
发帖数: 355
29
来自主题: Stock版 - 高盛每日市场小结 4/2
NY ROUNDUP – Wednesday, April 2, 2014
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
COMMENTS
· Equities put in another day for the faithful and make new highs
yet again. The bourses came cruising out of the gate following consensus ADP
numbers and positive revisions as investors focused their sights on the end
-of-week employment metrics. The good spirit was almost universally felt as
all but one sector finish in the green (Utilities small -0.16%). SPX and
Nasdaq now +2.5% for the year, while DJIA is back to flat. C... 阅读全帖
E******w
发帖数: 2616
30
来自主题: Stock版 - 今天很可能要收黑柱子。
Janet Yellen马上就要说话了。我觉得暴涨的可能性很大。不过这个价位我自己也不敢
进去赌涨。
Yellen讲话结束。看来我预测错了,至少今天应该不会大涨。
i******y
发帖数: 1049
31
来自主题: Stock版 - lexian 说市场有问题
如果让我选择信yellen还是别人,我选择信yellen。

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.7
j***u
发帖数: 836
32
来自主题: Stock版 - 叶轮说什么了
下面这个太TMD致命了:
While Yellen's remarks were mostly benign and cautious on the economy, a
separate Federal Reserve report indicated concern over asset prices.
"Valuation metrics in some sectors do appear substantially stretched—
particularly those for smaller firms in the social media and biotechnology
industries, despite a notable downturn in equity prices for such firms early
in the year," said remarks in the full policy report accompanying Yellen's
testimony.
s*******i
发帖数: 2386
33
来自主题: Stock版 - 小妖股被打入冷宫
Fed Chair Yellen Says Small Biotech Stocks Over-Valued
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, speaking in front of Congress
Tuesday, said the valuation of small-cap biotech stocks are "substantially
stretched."
E******w
发帖数: 2616
34
Yellen给的是个perfect talk。比如提到支持市场,可以被理解为好消息,也可以理解
为经济还有问题的坏消息。提到要提升利率,可以理解为坏消息,也可以理解为经济恢
复不错的好消息。反正Yellen肯定不会说经济有问题,但是我们仍然要提升利率。
所以,最终该怎么走,华尔街应该早有剧本,绝不会等到明天再临时决定。明天的讲话
就是个发令枪而已。可惜剧本到底是什么不好判断。我觉得要么小幅回落,要么大幅上
涨。大涨的可能性稍微大一点。
k*********2
发帖数: 98
35
Yellen dovish 表态 USD会暂时走弱 对crude 有一定支撑,一般SMID cap E&P 会跑赢
large cap E&P,SMID cap oil services,large cap oil services, big oil和
crude。个人认为big oil和crude是这些所有的东西里最没有搞头的。XLE中重要的成份
好多都是big oil 和 large cap E&P,比较稳但是没有beta,top holdings 里我最看
好的是EOG PXD,宁愿投这两个个股。XES在油价反弹时要跑赢XLE,它有beta而且很多
成分股都是highly shorted, 但是在油价下跌时XLE肯定比XES 稳。虽然今天下午
Yellen暂时稳住USD(就像我们昨天讨论的)目前crude市场还是看短期油价的下行风险
。那些short sellers 没那么容易放弃, 所以在XLE和XES之间,我个人选择XLE。今天
很多低质量energy 股票下午的beta rally 都是shortable的。
这三个ETF从TA看,XOP的momentum 也好些,ener... 阅读全帖
g******4
发帖数: 6339
36
来自主题: Stock版 - Billionaires Dumping Stocks,
Now that the Fed will raise rates, can it?
Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
benchmark rate to: Can it?
Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually ... 阅读全帖
g******4
发帖数: 6339
37
来自主题: Stock版 - Billionaires Dumping Stocks,
The Fed accidentally released a confidential analysis of where interest
rates are going
----------------
Currently, the fed funds rate is between 0 and 0.25 percent, the same level
it has been since the financial crisis hit in 2008. Top Fed officials,
including Chair Janet Yellen, have telegraphed for months that they expect
to finally raise it by the end of the year. In the confidential forecast,
staff estimated the fed funds rate would be 0.35 percent during the fourth
quarter.
That tells us a... 阅读全帖
g******4
发帖数: 6339
38
来自主题: Stock版 - Billionaires Dumping Stocks,
Now that the Fed will raise rates, can it?
Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
benchmark rate to: Can it?
Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually ... 阅读全帖
g******4
发帖数: 6339
39
来自主题: Stock版 - Billionaires Dumping Stocks,

--------------
U.S. hiring swelled in October by the largest amount all year, and
unemployment dropped another notch to 5 percent, increasing the likelihood
that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month for the first
time in a decade. With Americans spending more on everything from restaurant
meals and clothing to new cars, employers added an impressive 271,000 jobs
last month. That was a strong rebound from August and September, when
turmoil in China and other economies oversea... 阅读全帖
u******n
发帖数: 5727
40
来自主题: Stock版 - 叶大妈拉盘
大妈拉不动了吧。。
Yellen Meetings With Financial Firm Come Under Scrutiny
http://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-meetings-with-financial-firm
b*********n
发帖数: 13256
41
来自主题: Stock版 - 夜轮这是语无伦次
又开始喊负利率
YELLEN SAYS IF OUTLOOK WORSENED FED MIGHT WEIGH NEGATIVE RATES
YELLEN SAYS NEGATIVE RATES COULD HELP ENCOURAGE BANKS TO LEND
x****e
发帖数: 1780
42
来自主题: Stock版 - 来一点比特币的阴谋论
为什么Bernanke and Yelen 对比特币很友好,而JPMorgan的CEO Dimon 对比特币非常敌
视呢,我们能不能推出Fed Reserve和米国大银行的到底是个什么关系呢。
Fed Chairman 和 JP Morgan CEO对比特币有截然不同的公开看法,显然说明了他们的
利益是冲突的。JP Morgan是Fed的shareholder之一,也就是说JP Morgan的
shareholder同时也是Fed的shareholder。从Fed chairman对比特币的态度,我们可以
断定,JP以至于FED的后台老板是支持比特币的,甚至也是这个金融试验的组织者和发
起人。也许FED的后台老板就是所谓共济会高层级长老吧,这些人是总后台老板,难怪
那么多美国议员替比特币说话
至于Dimon,他就是给JP Morgan的shareholder打工的马仔。他为什么这么恼火,是因
为他的老板想重起炉灶搞虚拟货币,抛弃传统银行的产业模式了, 他们要完蛋啦。
Dimon也许都不知道,他的老板偷偷摸摸Ditch他。他的那些老板可不是他能见到的JP的
董事会成员,这些Board o... 阅读全帖
a*******m
发帖数: 14194
43
来自主题: Stock版 - 金价再创新低!
耶大妈憋不住了,喷了,
正式加息!
Fed's Yellen: Economy is ready for rate hike
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/12/02/janet-yellen-spe
d********1
发帖数: 2462
44
来自主题: Stock版 - 昨天和今天
这台戏,主题是“Currency Star Wars”:)。。
从周三Yellen老太开始第一天唱红脸:美元加息基本confirm,从她给出的keywords,
加息likelihood从68% -> 79%;美元强(expected),但是黄金并没有跌太多(dust没有
过15%),但是我觉得黄金没有被大抛,是部分因为第二天的ECB不确定。
应该是:美元强 -> dollar index涨,commodity prices跌。
第二天Draghi唱白脸,他先看到了Yellen的戏,知道美元涨,欧元即便不动,也会衰减
,所以,他的QE有保留。大家都看到了,欧元不跌反涨,美元弱 -> dollar index跌,
但是commodity prices有涨有跌,油是因为opec,除油之外,按理都该涨。
美股跌,是因为欧元QE这个event长期性是撬高了美元,美国的出口竞争减弱,制造业
受打击,但是对retailers,如wmt之流是好消息。
第三天Draghi不敢保留了,欧元到位,美元涨,shorts不敢过周末,被squeeze一把。
。所以呢,真正的好戏是下周:)。。
(Star War... 阅读全帖
c********e
发帖数: 4283
45
来自主题: Stock版 - 旗帜崩了
联储刚升好息,也不能马上就降不是?QE也不能说进行就要进行的,怎么也要把利率降
到0才好不是?
这次12月份的升息,是Yellen太天真了,老奶奶实际上是个很clueless的人物,呵呵。
病入膏肓的人,天天靠野山参给吊着,这保命的东西你一高兴就能给抽走的?问题是,
这一抽走,Yellen为了面子,还不能马上给加回去。
c********e
发帖数: 4283
46
来自主题: Stock版 - 现在真的不是经济衰退
大ben才是真正的历史罪人,yellen收了个烂摊子,淡然她也是个烂人。yellen的问题
是,还无知,收了个烂摊子,还以为拿到了一副好牌,还要挣面子。
C*******r
发帖数: 10345
47
这个自然,其实一个比较专业的都比业余版友强,比如这个
Bear Hunt FOMO Melt-Up
By Kevin Cook
March 11, 2016 2:40 PM
have a confession: I have been a stock market bear this year. “But I had a
great reason,” you can hear me say.
My reason was the Earnings Recession. In the video that accompanies this
article, I show the update on forward estimates that shows negative 9.4% “
growth” for the first quarter and minus 4% for Q2. Even when you strip out
Energy sector data, negative 4.5% earnings “growth” is the result for Q1.
I hav... 阅读全帖
E******w
发帖数: 2616
48
来自主题: Stock版 - 其实耶伦挺牛的
所谓的communication tool就是靠忽悠来操纵股市,希望不花钱就能达到花钱的效果。
Yellen做得挺成功。不过,这种伎俩只能玩一次。当年Greenspan通过降息刺激经济,
初次使用也是异常的成功,被人捧成神一样的存在。最终还不是越玩越惨。Yellen现在
做的,短期看是奇迹,长期看是在出卖美联储最后剩下的一点信用。等这点东西也卖完
了,我看谁还救得了他们。
n***i
发帖数: 777
49
不会加,目前国际形势不稳,而且美国数据不太一致,yellen不会加
yellen的风格:
比较鸽派,不会surprise华尔街
n***i
发帖数: 777
50
是的,但是有机会让自己有更多的办法,为什么不呢?
yellen希望在不太大影响股市的情况下加息。
去年12月的加息,华尔街给了点颜色看,这次yellen至少不会在这个节骨眼上加息。
但是美联储会议投票的人中也有鹰牌的,这就看双方negotiation了。但是由于退欧的
事情而暂时延迟加息是很强的argument。
美联储总是想减少market volatility的

fomc tool box很多trick,可以直接Q E来降低长短期利率同样可以起到减息的
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