N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: NeverLearn (24K Bear - Got Silver?), 信区: Stock
标 题: TBonds put JPM under stress
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 9 12:41:38 2010, 美东)
(ZZ)
JPMorgan is by far the largest derivative player in the world and they are
the largest player in interest rate derivatives. Most of these are in the
field of interest rate swaps.
In simple terms, our hero JPMorgan, on orders from the Fed buys a trillions
of dollars of long bonds in the future and at the same time sells or shorts
trillions ... 阅读全帖 |
|
z****g
发帖数: 4616 | 2 你别老捣乱好不好，今天第二次这么说你了。我对TBOND没发表过意见，别把我扯上。
骚扰的话题，你看清楚了再来发言。都是些道貌岸然的国男。大概这些国男结婚太早，
没好好玩过，婚后时间一长，就别提多想到外面偷腥了。已婚白男敢这样的，我还真没
遇上过，可能人家找白女去了吧。我想人家法律意识比较强，而且早玩过了，也不大好
奇，所以只要没离婚都还比较老实。 |
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 3 长期bond是非常volatile的，买之前先得确定你真的理解你买的是什么，想用它做什么
。这不是买菜，最好先投资时间，弄明白再说。
你如果只想要tbond的话，vustx 不理想。你得去看看prospectus，确定你可以接受它
只有80%是treasury.
vanguard当然可以买tlt，是个broker都可以买。你也可以直接买tbond，财政部
auction的，或是二手的。 |
|
b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 4 Try those
•FactorShares 2X: S&P500 Bull/TBond Bear (NYSEArca: FSE)
•FactorShares 2X: TBond Bull/S&P500 Bear (NYSEArca: FSA)
•FactorShares 2X: S&P500 Bull/USD Bear (NYSEArca: FSU)
•FactorShares 2X: Oil Bull/S&P500 Bear (NYSEArca: FOL)
•FactorShares 2X: Gold Bull/S&P500 Bear (NYSEArca: FSG) |
|
s******e
发帖数: 1751 | 5 Tbond is appreciating, so is US dollar.
All investment in US Treasury are golden (as for now). |
|
s******e
发帖数: 1751 | 6 1. if nobody buys Tbond, yield will raise.
2. a country's central bank buying its treasury's debt does solve any
problem. it's almost equivalent to printing money. |
|
发帖数: 1 | 7 Tbill也好，Tbond也好，到期之后都要roll的，所以都是长期债务。现在需要入手短债
，说明市面上流动性很差，上次那么差的时候华尔街倒了好几家。 |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 8
Since 2008, we have had Russian proposing a world currency, Japan asking
for Bond sale in Yen, China reducing TBond holding, Gulf nations talking
about a local oil currency, India buying gold at historical high ...
Every sign pointed to a shift away from Dollar. W/ national debt keeping
growing, how do you stop them from dumping Dollars? Not a chance. The
moment some major nations stop trading in Dollars, it's game over.
And don't think US military power can save the day. If it failed to save
U |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 9
In addition to what you've said, I think FDIC would have gone bust since
they definitely wouldn't have had money to cover that many bank deposits.
Dow would have hit 1000 or below. US government would have had to beg
for loan modification on TBonds b/c they had absolutely no way to honor
it under that situation. |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 10
Redemption = dumping bonds. Too much dumping, and it's certainly too much
in this April in the size of 640B, signals low confidence in TBond and a
run on Treasury department. If it continues like this, Fed will be buyer
of the last resort, and bond market will collapse, Dollar will collapse. |
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 11 Isn't JPMorgan already in bankruptcy because of their gigantic short
position in silver?
trillions
shorts |
|
p****e
发帖数: 1028 | 12 It should be 'futures', not 'future'.
And there is no 30-day money traded in the futures. If you are talking a
bout TBill futures in CME/CBOT, i can tell you there is no one trading t
hem.
also, the last time i checked our desk's position is 6pm today and i don
t find anything close to a 1 trillion at the long end. not even billions
.
so stop spreading rumors or you are just making yourself a big joke.
trillions
shorts |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 13
No one cares what's going on in your minor league insignificant CME/CBOT
field, capisce? So don't jump out talking like a smartass pundit.
I'm talking about data from "Office of the Comptroller of the Currency"
where JPM has 60+ Ts in play. Go read their book to hopefully get a clue. |
|
p****e
发帖数: 1028 | 14 You dont have to care about CME or CBOT. But you were saying JPM is taki
ng curve flattening positions with futures: is there any bigger exchange
than CME/CBOT in the treasury futures market?
OCC meets with us regularly and it just cannot happen that JPM has 1 tri
llion position in the long bonds: the total asset on our book is about t
his number and you think OCC is an idiot?
If you get confused between prop position and position taken for our cli
ents, i can tell you that we hold all kinds of ... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
p****e
发帖数: 1028 | 16 total notionals of derivatives?
ok i see. lol. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 23 “要是12年，肯定放SP了”
要是能穿越多好，要是能未卜先知多好。你现在看到12年之后是涨的当然容易了，当时
你买了多少？
你说以前不懂投资，现在比以前多懂了多少？光是知道点“利滚利的威力”是不算的，
那是常识。你怎么知道你现在不是误判？
别再跟小马过河一样需要每年、每月问别人应该买什么了。别人给什么金玉良言都不如
你投资在自己身上，自己多花时间研究、实践，找到适合自己的路。
别人让你trade，也得你自己有那个天分，何况提那种建议的人多数没那天分。别人让
你买spy/tbond，越跌越买，最终也得你自己能拿得住，做得到。我见得多了，别说10%
，20%的回调，基金分个红就有trading小天才屁滚尿流上来问怎么基金大跳水，是不是
出货了。。。让你放cd吧，那个选项最安全最好理解，不过算上通胀，你又该不甘心了。
说了那么多废话，其实就是想说，你不理解不适合的事情是做不好的，包括投资。 |
|
d********a
发帖数: 3698 | 24 看来米国的tbond5月又要流拍
老米今年太疯狂。四面出击：对欧元，对丰田，
对中国 - 一切就为了能卖出TBond
欧洲也要大印票子了。
08年开始的金融危机远远没有结束。 |
|
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 26 Bloomberg titled "Obama Pays More Than Buffett as U.S. Risks AAA Rating"
reveals that two-year notes sold in February by Warren Buffett's Berkshire
Hathaway yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity.
While 3.5 basis points is not a huge amount (100 basis points equals one
percentage point), the simple fact that the bond market is saying that it's
safer to lend to Warren Buffett than Barack Obama is telling.
And Buffett's not the only one enjoying this safer than "risk free" |
|
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 28 The whole GS thing is pure PR-stunt the politicians wanna use to pretend
they are up to the job in order to score some votes in coming elections.
There are far bigger frauds out there not addressed by D.C. The biggest
of all is Treasury bonds.
They accuse GS of selling garbage. Well, that's exactly what TBond is -
garbage, especially the 10Y and 30Y ones on that insanely low yield.
They accuse GS of misleading investors. Well, that's exactly what they
are doing with TIPS - suppress the true stat |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 29 Hello? Did Obama forget to tell them recession is gone and all is fine in
USA from now on. Maybe they should sell their RMB bonds (and gold) to load
some Treasuries instead.
==================================================================
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fecc16fc-c417-11df-b827-00144feab49a.html
Malaysia's central bank has bought renminbi-denominated bonds for its
reserves, marking a significant advance for Beijing's attempts to
internationalise the use of its currency, pitched by Ch |
|
g******n
发帖数: 53185 | 30 人民币应该跟黄金挂钩，打出10万人民币对1oz黄金，可买可卖。
美国立马傻眼。 |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 31
China is probably running a covert gold assault via individual investors
to buy as much gold as possible before the SHTF inevitably. |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 32 (ZZ)
JPMorgan is by far the largest derivative player in the world and they are
the largest player in interest rate derivatives. Most of these are in the
field of interest rate swaps.
In simple terms, our hero JPMorgan, on orders from the Fed buys a trillions
of dollars of long bonds in the future and at the same time sells or shorts
trillions of dollars of short term money of say 30 days or 90 days also in
the future. The long bond was purchased at say a yield of3.4% to 4% and the
short term mo... 阅读全帖 |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 33 Straight talk from Peter Schiff again. Notice that fool's little smirk
at 2:08. It's priceless. |
|
i****e
发帖数: 451 | 34 nice. Do you have other suggestions in addition to buying gold/sliver? |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 35
Energy (sans solar) and oil are fine to diversify your investment. |
|
o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 36 Agriculture will be in a great bull market in the next 50 years. |
|
i****e
发帖数: 451 | 37 Thanks. Any ticker to recommend? I found it hard to invest in OIL (compared
to physical metals). |
|
i****e
发帖数: 451 | 38 I thought this too, in fact since a few years ago. However, didn't find any
effective way to invest. Furthermore, looking at DBA, it does not bring a
lot of returns in the past couple of years.
Is that because it is another shitty product of those sucker banks (quite
likely I guess as it is no free way to store them) or am I looking at the
wrong thing?
Thanks ! |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 39
I have a small position in PBR and CEO. They aren't necessarily the best
picks tho. |
|
i****e
发帖数: 451 | 40 Good. CEO seems to have a high beta on oil price, and I guess this is due to
the fact that their profit is directly related to oil price as they own
some oil fields. Why is PBR performing so poorly? Any good ETF? Thanks. |
|
o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 41 For agriculture, RJA is better than DBA.
any |
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 42 真好！
我得给弄在了4.75
哭死
实在不行自己弄点tbond hedge一下 |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 43
That's FED's propaganda. They won't admit they are inflating the money
supply but the stats don't lie. Check the M2 money supply below while
they still publish it. It's been going up by 400B from June to October
when QE2 was supposed to be over.
It's hidden monetization like this preventing TBond going the way of
Greece bond or Italian bond. Bottomline: QE never ends.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist1.htm |
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 44
Government rigged stats to fool people.
ditto
ditto
He who doesn't care 赤字 is a joke.
TBond low rate is the work of trillions derivatives. Again rigged.
#1 Who says China has to buy? #2 Who says China has that much money
to buy like, what, 1.5 trillion new debt every year?
If MSFT is traded to 200$/share and then falls down to 20$/share then
it's not 通缩. It's simply a normal price action. If you print money
to prevent it then you have 通胀.
Nah. Expect US to slump (if not a total collapse) at lea... 阅读全帖 |
|
y*******o
发帖数: 6632 | 45 you can do that but many institutional investor can not do so.
I personally think the money from debt market will flow to other market(
stock, commodity, other bond market).
people pull money from the most safe bond market(tbond),does not mean they
will put into stock market. they can put into corporate bond to get a better
yield.
The key of lowering treasury yield is that the confidence in market is
recovering. That would sustain a good stock/bond market.
So I am very bullish on the stock marke... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
|
|
|
z****g
发帖数: 4616 | 50 你爱怎么想怎么说是你的权利，但是我自己猜是因为我多年来单身独居，生性开朗健谈
，再加上我天生丰满，所以容易招惹是非 |
|
