s*****h
发帖数: 44903 | 1 参加人数太少 奖金我也match一份
先发660伪币给南瓜
sunfish，您好：
您转给 pumpkin18,现金(伪币):660,收取手续费:6.6
同时附加了如下留言给 pumpkin18.
survivor game二期奖金
===
另请伪币中心代发的版面奖金如下：
pumpkin18 330伪币
SCIP 200伪币 |
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s*****h
发帖数: 44903 | 2 恭喜SCIP
本周果断选狗
目前生命力1.5了
玩Survivor游戏，还是要敢于选狗
第一期就是选狗的玩家笑到最后 |
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p**s
发帖数: 788 | 3 WHAT WAS COLBY DOING IN THE MEN'S ROOM WITH AMBER?
HAS hunky Survivor II star Colby Donaldson gone sex crazy, or is he just
making up for lost time in the Outback?
That's the question Early Show co-host Jane Clayson is asking after learning
that Texan Colby was two-timing her -- with fellow castaways Amber Brkich and
buff personal trainer Alicia Callaway, say insiders.
"Jane was furious when she found out that Colby has been playing her for an
easy good time," says an insider.
"It was a bitter p |
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p**s
发帖数: 788 | 4 HOW TINA SEDUCED $1M AWAY FROM COLBY
SURVIVOR II winner Tina Wesson cleverly scored the $1 million first prize by
"seducing" runner-up Colby Donaldson into thinking of her as his surrogate
mother, a stand-in for his own beloved mom.
That's the conclusion of noted New York psychologist Dr. Judy Kuriansky and
famed Beverly Hills psychiatrist Dr. Carole Lieberman, who believe Tina won by
playing a complex head game with Colby.
"Once Tina figured out Colby's uncommonly close relationship with his |
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d**w
发帖数: 14889 | 5 the tribe is divided by race. which means there is a number of asians in
this Survivor. |
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d**w
发帖数: 14889 | 6 CBS has booked China as the location for the next edition of "Survivor,"
and locked in premiere dates for two key summer reality shows --
including Mark Burnett's "Pirate Master."
Production of U.S. entertainment projects in mainland China had been
rare, due to logistical and government restrictions. But with a
growing economy, China has begun a more open policy, including its
active wooing to host the 2008 Beijing Olympics. While bigscreen
features, such as the 2006 "The Painted Veil," forged n |
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d**w
发帖数: 14889 | 7 i have been watching flash forward and missed survivor all season. |
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j********y
发帖数: 278 | 8 really? I just remembered he's a nice solid guy; want to see him compete
again...I am not very into players who plays mind games in survivors, like
to see more physical challenges |
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d**w
发帖数: 14889 | 9 Jennifer Lyon, a contestant on Survivor Palau, has died at age 37,
UsMagazine.com has confirmed. Lyon finished in fourth place in the reality
competition's tenth season, which aired in 2005.
A former nanny, Lyon was diagnosed with stage three breast cancer at age 33
in 2005, and spoke to Us Weekly about the news and her eventual decision to
get a double mastectomy, followed by chemotherapy. "I was completely shocked
and overwhelmed," Lyon told Us at the time. "I felt fine that day; in fact,
I've |
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p**s
发帖数: 788 | 10 Colby这个loser,对他太失望了。
其实heroes这个alliance根本不存在，只不过是editng让你觉得这几个人是一起的，不
然这几个heroes怎么也得轮流盯着Danielle去找idol吧。
Russell就是厉害，看了上一季的Survivor，你就知道他就是玩心理游戏的，没啥卑鄙
可言。
个hidden |
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J****n
发帖数: 3011 | 11 卑鄙就是survivor这个游戏的特点，游戏本身规则决定的。
russel是很坏，ego相当的大（人本来也是一百万富翁），上一季开头也是无数人及
其讨厌他，直到他只手翻天，很多人转变成很欣赏他。
JT是自己愚蠢，比tyson好点，但是有限。
candice和amanda在以前好像有点什么恩怨历史，被欺骗过什么的。
Colby完了3季，没有看到这人有任何进步，就一二愣子
sandra还是那么聪明，擅长从复杂的环境和人际关系中迅速找到自己的切入点。
parvati，嗯，长得一般，但是媚力惊人，而且聪明。怪不得这么多人会被他利用。
包括king russel
个hidden |
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d**w
发帖数: 14889 | 12 this is Survivor, dude. Russell is just playing the game.
This season has almost become a Russell show. He is that good.
个hidden |
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s******m
发帖数: 590 | 13 I do think if Rupert voted with Sandra, he would have been safe at least for
last episode. Sandra just hates Russell too much. And Sandra may go with
Rupert and Colby to the final 3, since she has been a outsider in the
Villain tribe.
I have not watched the seasons that Jerri and Colby played. I do not know
how they deserve to be invited back to the Survivor.Jerri is totally
brainless and Colby is way too weak mentally and physically.
I hope Sandra will be the one to win 1M.
aggressive |
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d**w
发帖数: 14889 | 14 what is Boston Rob doing on survivor again!? |
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b***e
发帖数: 15201 | 15 话说某日无事，晃去某国企AMC就座。酒足饭饱血涌下头再加上灯光昏暗，即刻便睡了
过去。醒后录下惊险动作梦一部，以此为记。
在很久很久以前的2005年，阿美利加帝国正在中亚小国阿富汗清剿邪教势力塔利班。
塔利班在1995到2001年间，控制了阿富汗90%以上的领土，建立了全国政权，国号阿富
汗伊斯兰酋长国。它和美帝本无大仇。在2001年911事件之后，因为支持和庇护笨拉灯
领导的基地组织，遭到了美帝和大英帝国联合打击。
《简氏防务周刊》2001年公布的塔利班武装力量评估显示，塔利班拥有4.5万名武装人
员，650辆坦克和其他装甲车，250架飞机(包括战斗机)以及有效火炮。到了2005年，虽
然被美英联军赶出了大城市，但塔利班依然掌握可观的武装力量，并将战术转变为几十
人一组的游击作战，依托北部山区的复杂地形和隔壁巴基斯坦的支持，同联军开展持久
战。
游击战who怕who阿，美军的海陆空各种特种部队任务之一就是应对非常规战争和反游击
战。在2005年6月到7月间，美军陆战队3师3团2营联手海军海豹特种部队和陆军160特种
作战航空团展开了红烧鸡翅膀行动（Operation Red Wing... 阅读全帖 |
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z**x
发帖数: 3629 | 16 lone survivor这部电影是近期比较少的一部打枪的打仗电影。
我印象当中，之前就是黑鹰降落了（black hawk down）。不过那讲的是陆军的三角洲
特种部队（delta force）和游骑兵部队（US Army Rangers）。
这里说的是海军的海豹突击队，从特种部队的角度来说，似乎是更加牛。
大概分几个方面来谈谈。
1. 谈谈剧情：
一开始就是花了很多时间来描述海豹突击队（Navy seal）这个特种精英部队的人员是
如何魔鬼训练的。这些训练也确实是后来这些队员实战的生存基础。
然后就是作战计划安排，要斩首行动，干掉塔利班头目，先空投下去一个4人侦查小组
确定目标，然后后续分队再进入。
坑爹的通讯器材使得这4人侦查小分队没法联系上，而且还和3个阿富汗平民不期而遇。
面对如何处置这一个老头，两个小孩，4人小分队火线开会，最后队长拍板放人，埋下
了之后被放走的一个小孩去通风报信引来塔利班大队人马伏击的祸根。
还是坑爷的通讯不畅，使得小分队走远了又重新走回来，结果交火。
交火这些是最好看的，此处省略xx字。
在通讯员被擒身亡，其他三人都身负不同伤势的危急情况下，队长决定舍身... 阅读全帖 |
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s****h
发帖数: 25 | 17 SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — A young Mormon missionary from Utah who previously
lived through cancer was among the survivors of the Spain train crash that
left 80 dead.
Stephen Ward, 18, is hospitalized with a fractured vertebra in his neck but
is expected to make a full recovery, his father, Raymond Ward, said Thursday
. |
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W***s
发帖数: 955 | 20 战场上敌我从来不是那么分得清楚。对“我方”而言，敌方在任何情况下都可以称之为
“全民皆兵”。换句话说，敌我任何一方都随时能得到一部分老百姓的支援，并且让对
方分不清楚谁是敌兵谁是普通百姓。这本来就是所有战争的常态。或者说这就是战争的
本质 --- 一部分人用各自的手段反对另一部分人
这个事件里最后lone survivor也全靠当地老百姓救助。貌似被放的那三人中也就是有
一个告密了。所以“无害的真老百姓”跟“会向塔利班告密的假百姓”都长着类似的脸
。情报不到位谁知道无害的是不是会反手害人，看起来跟你很不客气的又未必要致你于
死地。最保险的方式是没有安全感就杀，但战场上谁有安全感？所以才会有“禁杀平民
”的说法，是判断犯战争罪与否的最基本标准
我觉得队长这一点上判断是对的。那三个老百姓是不能轻易杀的。虽然杀了他们三能保
住大兵的命，但战争不仅仅是那四条好汉的事情。现实中平民肯定有死伤，但看着有威
胁不是杀平民的理由---- 那三人杀了，通风报信的威胁是没有了，但大兵就成杀纯平
民了。一旦国际谴责转向各国抵制，那么很多前人的工作，数年来付出的努力，还有其
他大兵的牺牲，都是巨大的损失。那四... 阅读全帖 |
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W***s
发帖数: 955 | 21 仁义跟人心根本不是同一种东西。仁义是一种道德要求，人心是一种可再生资源。中共
建国用实践证明了掌握人心资源的威力。是你自己在把“人心”狭义理解为让世界充满
爱。
我再重申一下我的观点如果之前让几位误解了的话。我并不认为讲不讲”仁义”本身是
个首要问题。我觉得军队而言，效率是首要问题，利益最大化是首要问题。在这个前提
下你可以仁义，也可以不仁义。在lone survivor讲述的这件事上，我觉得“不轻易杀
老百姓”带来的损失要小于杀老百姓、保住4个美国大兵的损失
你可以从这个角度理解我提出的“这几个士兵临场作出的判断是最佳判断”“是美国军
队素质的体现”：
首先4个士兵临场的表现显然没有经过精密的计算。这几个人本身是普通老百姓，既没
有智商特别高，也没有智商特别低。他们作出的判断依据是来自他们日常的训练和灌输
。而他们日常的训练，是经过精密计算和设计的。这个计算的结果就是：不能轻易杀老
百姓
我前面回帖只是从我理解的角度提了一下为什么会有这种看上去效率极低的计算结果。
我想表达的是这种计算结果远比你以为的要高效的多。而这4个人面对突发事件没有做
超出这种计算之外自以为是的判断，这就是成功... 阅读全帖 |
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wh
发帖数: 141625 | 23 有人熟悉这个乐队吗？刚刚听到这支歌，初听声音以为是air supply，挺喜欢的。
Eye Of The Tiger
Risin' up
back on the street
did my time took my chances
went the distance
now i'm back on my feet
just a man and and his will to survive
so many times
it happens too fast
you trade your passion for glory
don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past
you must fight just to keep them alive
Chorus
It's the eye of the tiger
it's the thrill of the fight
risin' up to the challenge of our rival
and the last known survivor stalks his prey in t... 阅读全帖 |
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H******7
发帖数: 1728 | 24 survivor s19真的是巅峰，有russel hantz撑场面简直太酷 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 25 那个人告诉你光survivor benefit就是4700了？ |
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t******n
发帖数: 2939 | 26 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
monarch8 (哈哈) 于 (Thu Apr 4 23:25:57 2013, 美东) 提到:
对于这个qingxi, 实在不想说什么
人要脸，树要皮
昨天
胡说八道被拆穿后就卖萌
http://www.ssa.gov/pubs/10084.pdf
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
monarch8 (哈哈) 于 (Thu Apr 4 23:29:38 2013, 美东) 提到:
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
lolhaha (人生如棋，棋如人生) 于 (Thu Apr 4 23:31:29 2013, 美东) 提到:
其实所有人都不理伊的帖子是正道
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tidewater (弦影·著名走音错拍公鸭嗓) 于 (Thu Apr 4 23:31:43 2013, 美东) 提到:
赞！
不过... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****c
发帖数: 20445 | 27 【 以下文字转载自 Movie 讨论区 】
发信人: joycee (买买提头号女魔头), 信区: Movie
标 题: lone survivor不用看了(剧透）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 13 14:15:57 2014, 美东)
剧情和打斗都没什么新意，一点都不精彩。角色里有两个脑残(剧透）：
1）美军发现三个可疑阿富汗人，两未成年一老头。美军带队脑残执意认为三人是平民
，不顾
某些部下强烈反对把三人放了，结果全军覆没，来救援的战斗机也机毁人亡，就一个残
兵侥幸活下来。
2）某阿富汗平民脑残主动帮助这一个美国人逃离塔利班爪牙，结果整个村子都险些被
塔利班灭了。
2)很可能是夸大的，但1)肯定是事实。整个事件是脑残制造的。 |
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s*****h
发帖数: 44903 | 28 注：1）版面活动：手续费无；个人申请：手续费10%；:
1)
代发版面/ID::
Football版
代发事由(主题标题及链接，如有链接必须附上链接)::
[版面竞猜]2017 Football版Survivor游戏
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Football/32395409.html
赞助（有：附链接。没有：无）::
无
楼主是否计入统计（如不填写，默认否）::
是
奖励金额（需注明扣除伪币来源）::
（请从Football版面金库扣除）
备注::
以下ID奖励720伪币
bbdou
以下ID各奖励200伪币
pumpkin18
pplulu
感谢站务！ |
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m*********k
发帖数: 10521 | 29 "[Football]sunfish Aug 3. ● [恭喜bbdou独赢大奖]2017 Football版
Survivor游"
成功奖励 720 伪币的用户: bbdou
成功奖励 200 伪币的用户: pumpkin18, pplulu
扣除版面:(Football)1120伪币成功 |
|
s*****h
发帖数: 44903 | 30 注：1）版面活动：手续费无；个人申请：手续费10%；:
1)
代发版面/ID::
Football版
代发事由(主题标题及链接，如有链接必须附上链接)::
[版面竞猜][第二期]2017 Football版Survivor游戏
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t1/Football/32407661_0_1.html
赞助（有：附链接。没有：无）::
无
楼主是否计入统计（如不填写，默认否）::
是
奖励金额（需注明扣除伪币来源）::
（请从Football版面金库扣除）
备注::
以下ID奖励330伪币
pumpkin18
以下ID各奖励200伪币
SCIP
感谢站务！ |
|
m*********k
发帖数: 10521 | 31 "[Football]sunfish Oct 16 ● [恭喜pumpkin18活到最后][第二期]2017
Football版Survivor游戏"
成功奖励 330 伪币的用户: pumpkin18
成功奖励 200 伪币的用户: SCIP
扣除版面:(Football)530伪币成功 |
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 32 -
Choice Hotels will make a $1 donation to Tragedy Assistance Program For
Survivors (TAPS), if you download a free .mp3 song.
TAPS assists the families of our fallen military cope with their loss of a
loved one.
The song is pretty good too.
Maximum donation amount is $10,000.
Help families heal.
OFFER LINK
PERFECT DAY VIDEO
-
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 33 Verizon Wireless has the Survivor case from Griffin for $9.97 with free
shipping. This case meets or exceeds the US Department of Defense Standard
810F and UK Department of Defense Standard 00-35 for protection against dirt
, sand, rain, and shock. It features a silicone exterior, hard front, back
snap-on shell, and removable belt clip kickstand.
Link:
http://www.verizonwireless.com/b2c/store/accessory?action=acces
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 34 Amazon has Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked for the 3DS. This
game had a short print run and was OOS everywhere...came back briefly and
sold out again. It is in stock for retail ($39.99).
Link:
http://www.amazon.com/Shin-Megami-Tensei-Overclocked-Nintendo-3
***Works with their Buy 1 get 1 50% off
If you have been hard pressed to find this game, now is the time to pick it
up. Recently ended eBay auctions end at about $60 for a new copy of the
game.
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e****e
发帖数: 1775 | 37
btw, just got to know that the one i am watching is survivor V. |
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i******e
发帖数: 217 | 38 http://www.bishop-accountability.org/AtAGlance/USCCB_Yearly_Dat
just read the numbers and tell me you actually feel safe to put your
children near these people
Number of Priests Accused of Sexually Abusing Children
As Reported by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops
with Numbers of Persons Alleging Abuse
Compiled by BishopAccountability.org
From reports commissioned by the USCCB
Updated April 10, 2012
As of April 10, 2012, the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) has
counted 6,115 cler... 阅读全帖 |
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z********0
发帖数: 9013 | 39 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Hardlife (Survivor) 于 (Thu Sep 15 23:08:00 2011, 美东) 提到:
大家轻点拍，我知道体形差，所以才来请教请教该怎么练
已经练了大约一个月了（可见以前多丑陋），现在卧推120lbs，哑铃单手25lbs，飞鸟
20lbs
每天也就练这3样，每样大概四组。
肚子还是很大（奔三了，照片有点吸气，不过刚吃完饭），每周cycling大约3次，每次
30分钟（屏幕显示200cal），大约两天一次8min abs。 没有刻意调节饮食
其实我也不想要多少肌肉，看起来健康，胖一点就好。请大家指点指点，还需要怎么练
，哪些地方需要加强。我每天只有1个小时锻炼时间。
大家都怎么热身？昨天卧推的时候突然脑充血，晕菜了，现在还没好
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
anoia (high estrogen man) 于 (Thu Sep 15 23:11:03 2011, 美东) 提到:
就按你现在这样练，3~6个月后再说... 阅读全帖 |
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a***k
发帖数: 1038 | 40 【 以下文字转载自 paladin 讨论区 】
发信人: atack (小军号), 信区: paladin
标 题: 红死病 by 杰克.伦敦
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Oct 11 07:40:15 2014, 美东)
I
The way led along upon what had once been the embankment of a railroad. But
no train had run upon it for many years. The forest on either side swelled
up the slopes of the embankment and crested across it in a green wave of
trees and bushes. The trail was as narrow as a man's body, and was no more
than a wild-animal runway.
Occasionally, a piece of rusty iron, showing through ... 阅读全帖 |
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W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 41 犹太人唠唠叨叨他们这个所谓大屠杀70多年了。耳朵都磨出茧子了。别的民族经历的屠
杀都不重要，就他们的这个重要。够了！
Get what you need to know to start your day. Sign up for the Morning
Briefing Newsletter.
Holocaust Is Fading From Memory, Survey Finds
For seven decades, “never forget” has been a rallying cry of the Holocaust
remembrance movement.
But a survey released Thursday, on Holocaust Remembrance Day, found that
many adults lack basic knowledge of what happened — and this lack of
knowledge is more pronounced among millennials, whom the survey de... 阅读全帖 |
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a***k
发帖数: 1038 | 42 I
The way led along upon what had once been the embankment of a railroad. But
no train had run upon it for many years. The forest on either side swelled
up the slopes of the embankment and crested across it in a green wave of
trees and bushes. The trail was as narrow as a man's body, and was no more
than a wild-animal runway.
Occasionally, a piece of rusty iron, showing through the forest-mold,
advertised that the rail and the ties still remained. In one place, a ten-
inch tree, bursting through... 阅读全帖 |
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W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 43 Michigan State University reaches $500 million settlement with Larry Nassar
victims
Updated 12:46 PM EDT May 17, 2018
Michigan State University will pay $500 million to settle lawsuits brought
by 332 victims of Larry Nassar, the former associate professor and doctor
who sexually abused hundreds of young girls and women.
The terms of the settlement include $425 million paid to current claimants,
and $75 million set aside in a trust fund to protect "any future
claimants alleging sexual abuse b... 阅读全帖 |
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t******n
发帖数: 2939 | 44 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
burst (FakeMask的马甲) 于 (Fri Mar 15 23:53:05 2013, 美东) 提到:
如果这是真的，那班上很多人还呼吁买保险，我看保险不用买了，哪怕还有房贷，只要
房子不太贵，也勉强够了！求懂行的验证，如果真的，我将来也不买保险了，只要多生
几个即可。我是认真的，哈哈
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luowei (天堂<>地狱) 于 (Sat Mar 16 00:00:30 2013, 美东) 提到:
是的，你要有孩子，也要有足够高的收入，而且只能领到孩子18岁
如果你做薄厚10年，现在死了，老婆孩子大概每个月1400/月，吃饭够了
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burst (FakeMask的马甲) 于 (Sat Mar 16 00:18:54 2013, 美东) 提到:
那你的算法有点问题啊。lilykang的先生10年前15万的可能性不大，估计... 阅读全帖 |
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l**t
发帖数: 10440 | 45 http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/07/04/MNG
San Francisco -- One man died and eight more were missing Monday, a day
after a boat carrying 28 American tourists, most of them Bay Area men on an
annual Fourth of July fishing trip in Mexico, capsized in the Gulf of
California, authorities said.
The U.S. Coast Guard and the Mexican navy were searching for survivors more
than 36 hours after a sudden, unexpected storm toppled the boat. The man
confirmed dead was American, but he has... 阅读全帖 |
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b****a
发帖数: 4465 | 46 发信人: Huangchong (净坛使者), 信区: Joke
标 题: Re: 昨天看BBC的大西洋战役纪录片 残酷的反潜战 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 28 21:49:07 2019, 美东)
查到这个
德国潜艇击沉一艘运输船以后 主动救援落水者 并且通知盟军他们的位置 换上红十
字旗帜 带着被救者在水面航行 结果美军收到消息后主动攻击该潜艇 迫使它下潜
导致被救人员死亡
后来审判邓尼茨的时候还把这事翻出来 导致美国极其丢脸
Laconia incident
Add title description
The Laconia incident was a series of events surrounding the sinking of a
British troopship in the Atlantic Ocean on 12 September 1942, during World
War II, and a subsequent aerial attack on German and Italian submarine... 阅读全帖 |
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c***t
发帖数: 383 | 47 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
doyouloveme (doyouloveme) 于 提到:
作为女人我还是很同情康妈的。虽然对她的有些做法不太认同。但是看到有些人不放过
她，不断地整她，到天涯等华人论坛上发她的故事，还贴人家的私人照，觉得这些人实
在是做得有些过分了。将心比心吧，得饶人处且饶人。何必打压这么一个苦命的女人呢？
康妈40岁出头就丧夫，没工作带3个孩子，人生已经遭遇很大变故了，又遇到网上大面
积强势打压，真是个命苦的女人啊。即便得到点金钱上的补偿，谁愿意遇到这样的事呢
。看她40出头外貌就那个样子，看得出还是照顾孩子和家庭很辛苦的。刚刚丧夫，又得
到网上这么强势的打压，还给不给人一点活路了。
她同意捐款是有些冲动了，也是有些无知的因素在内吧。当时丈夫刚去世，一下子没了
主心骨，毕竟还是脱离社会太久，对捐款带来的影响欠考虑，有好心人提议捐款，就不
拂对方好意地接受了。仿佛快溺水的人，有人伸出个枝子就拽住了。她为啥有那种快溺
水的感觉？也许是一时觉得孤儿寡母，没工作，带三个孩子，前途灰暗。也许她自己当
时也不知道... 阅读全帖 |
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M****N
发帖数: 27 | 48 嗯，love and appreciate五柳的质疑。不过好像我们讲的是一回事。
1. 关于巴菲特:Fooled by Randomness的作者Taleb（虽然没有明确指名道姓）说巴菲
特其实就是个randomness的survivor而已。就像你所说“...所以如果有足够耐心持续
投资108年，赶上这个阶段的美国，任何一个人都挣钱了”，大家封他为投资之神就是
survivor bias。 我受到Taleb的书很多启发，但是我不太认同他的很多观点和推理。
但是不管什么样的观点，我们分析巴菲特的现象必须用到randomness。
2.关于模型： 我的这个模型的目的就是为了简单，用所有人都能看懂的二元论：挣钱
与亏钱来描述因果关系。因为是二元的，所以50%的概率代表随机性的极限。我们俩的
模型其实从正反两个方向来证明同一件事：我们必需用概率语言来描述现象，哪怕是很
确定的事，其实0.99994288也是一个概率值。而且你的简单模型恰恰是大家用来证明
survivor bias的模型，用这个模型我们无法回答谁是这10，000人中的survivor呀，这
个survivor out of 1... 阅读全帖 |
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G*M
发帖数: 6042 | 49 不知道该说什么。
Oslo, Norway (CNN) -- The death toll in the mass shooting and bomb attack in
Norway rose to 92 Saturday, as leaders and the public alike tried to make
sense of what the prime minister called the country's "worst atrocity" since
World War II.
New details emerged surrounding Friday's attacks, as a fuller picture of the
suspect charged in the crimes came to light. The man faces charges related
to terrorism, which carry a maximum sentence of 21 years in prison if
convicted. The charges may ... 阅读全帖 |
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