G*****n
发帖数: 3863 | 1 你学过数学和物理么？你列出的都是Secondary condition，derivatives. 这就好比速
度和加速度的区别。
GDP总量才是取决于你所说的那些东西。而GDP growth rate 取决于和以前相比，你的
所列出的这些条件进步了多少。
1. innovation: 过去的15年里，美国除了发明了CDO, subprime, 还发明了些什么？因
特网是60年代美国军方的project发明的，电子业也是那个时候的冷战军事东西打的基
础。过去的15年美国什么都没有发明。
2. initial condition: 如果你讲的是Growth Rate, 那你的initial condition 也必
须是growth rate. 要不然就是驴唇不对马嘴。美国过去10年的growth rate都不怎么样
，勉强徘徊在3%左右。
3. investment: 过去的十五年里，美国的投资环境严重的恶化了。因为制造业外移，
产业空洞，所以导致没有好的项目可以投资。好不容易出了个IT, 但是也是钱大大多于
可行的项目，导致泡沫。后来换成了房地产，又泡沫；金融，更泡沫。美国现在是投资 |
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x**n
发帖数: 1936 | 2 (续一）
做为华尔街出身的老狐狸， 又在五角大楼和白宫职业生涯过， Paulson 自然精通美国政
治，经济等运作。 并能把这些东西有效地整合在一起并着力应用。 也难怪他在2006
年6月份答应接受W. Bush 的 offer时的条件是：能保证给予足够的授权to make an
impact. 这不， 自2006年下半年开始， 美国次级房贷因为Subprime 的倒闭而被揭开
。原来，给穷人贷款的一大堆公司在放手给没有偿还能力的人猛借钱买房把房价推高到
极点后开始崩溃。 结果， 狂跌的房间使银行和参与贷款的公司被深度套牢。大多数银
行和公司走入倒闭关门的边缘。
可是， 细细一想， Paulson 是在两年半前的那时候上台。也就是说， 他上台的时候
，是在这一危机开始暴露但却没有全面爆发之前。他有足够的时间从那时起着手解决这一
问题。然而，极顶聪明的他并没有立即着手去做这件事。 一直把它拖到他将要离别他
的这以职务的前7个星期， 也就是在9月14日， 在华尔街的四大投资银行之一，
Lehman Brother破产后， 他才开始大显身手， 大手笔的于9月15日逼着MER和BAC合并 |
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c*c
发帖数: 58 | 3 其实很简单一个事，华尔街刷小聪明用subprime圈钱，圈到一半发现系统设计有错误，
但骑虎难下只好硬着头皮往自己挖的坑里跳。后来发现中国阿联酋新加坡什么的国家有
钱又没经验，于是高喊此地人傻钱多速来，跑到中国什么的软硬兼施要求救济。
如果中国真的出手救济，可能的结果也很简单。如果美国度过危机，政府可以挣一笔大
钱，中国人也可以捞到很多好处。如果美国人耍赖，中国人会吃一笔亏，但美国的信用
没了，对世界的统治也就快到头了，这就是温总的言外之意。真到那时候中国的好处就
不是用钱能算出来的了。把眼界放高一点，跳出受害者的思想，少计较一城一地的得失
，把自己当作成长中的领导者，就可以看到另一片天空。
美国人也不那么短视，搞东南亚国家可以，跟欧洲联合搞日本可以，搞现在的中国就得
想想了。美国政府救两房，救AIG，但不救lehman是有道理的。两房有很多外国政府投
资，lehman没有。 |
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a***c
发帖数: 315 | 4 http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html
The strategy of forcing political change through orchestrated crisis. The "
Cloward-Piven Strategy" seeks to hasten the fall of capitalism by
overloading the government bureaucracy with a flood of impossible demands,
thus pushing society into crisis and economic collapse.
Investor's Business Daily added:
The revisions also allowed for the first time the securitization of CRA-
regulated loans containing subprime mortgages. |
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a***o
发帖数: 3734 | 5 不管你喜欢不喜欢，obama的胜利近在咫尺。分析一下obama胜利的原因。
it is economy！！不是说subprime和stock market crash
造成了obama的胜利。还有更广泛更深层的原因。
全球化造成了美国中产阶级，特别是劳工阶层的消失。美国正在分化
为资产者，尤其是海外资产者的美国和穷人的美国。Dem曾经的中坚，
产业工会，在primary里支持hillary，被打的灰头土脸。dem的主力
变成了college kids，young professional还有黑人。college
kids和young professional算不上资产者，但他们是替资产者服务
的，和资产者一个声音。黑人则是穷人和福利受益者的典型。至于
铺天盖地的媒体，则是资产者在发言。
美国新的社会结构将是：资产者，那些有海外投资的人。军队，保证
资产者的海外利益。服务业，为资产者服务的人。穷人，吃福利的，
被当作猪养起来。
曾经的美国梦是努力工作挣钱，move up。新的社会结构使upward
mobility越来越困难了，社会的稳定曾经是通过upward mobility
来实现的 |
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y*****6
发帖数: 9545 | 6 By Thomas Sowell
After the big gamble on subprime mortgages that led to the current financial
crisis, is there going to be an even bigger gamble, by putting the fate of
a nation in the hands of a man whose only qualifications are ego and mouth?
Barack Obama has the kind of cocksure confidence that can only be achieved
by not achieving anything else.
Anyone who has actually had to take responsibility for consequences by
running any kind of enterprise-- whether economic or academic, or even just
m |
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s******s
发帖数: 13035 | 8 说是应该blame谁for这次经济危机呢?
举了四个targets
1. 贪心的花街
2. 老降利率的老格
3. 95年强迫银行给不符合贷款要求的人发subprime的民主党政府和议会
4. 美国人不正确的生活方式.
作者总结说, 每次危机都是很复杂的, 不过最后帽子都被扣在一个原因
上. 这次作者认为4的影响最大, 不过估计以后帽子都会扣在1上, 谁叫
花街是easy target, 民主党上台, 扣了4也没办法解决问题, 更别说扣
2和3了. |
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m******c
发帖数: 55 | 9 美国哪衰落了? 能把一个危机或者萧条叫国家衰落吗. 反到有什么证据说剪羊毛是荒谬
至极.
我倒觉得是借subprime夸大的出来的利益再分配. 那几个大佬拼命搞cheap credit, 又
早知道MBS这些东西不靠谱，又放任瞎搞, 时机一到, JP收了BS, Leh倒掉，BOA收了
Merrill, CITI本来要收Wells Fargo, 没弄成马上又问政府要20billion. 几个银行有
真亏得很惨的吗. 倒是现在轻松挤倒对手，民众也丝毫没有怨言说垄断，又逼着政府背
7000亿的债, 现在马上又奔1万亿.
至于那3个汽车厂，20年前就知道不行了，现在不过又拿出来做文章。
好多人说现在萧条是greedy造成的，我却觉得是greedy的开始.
看吧，马上又会大吹奥巴马新政, 借着往池塘里放水。 |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 10 again, another useful idiot.
do you know banks got sued for not lending subprimes?
will
RICH |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 11 do you know, banks get sued for not lending subprime to low income joe? |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 12 你真的知道什么是deregulation吗？
你真的知道谁在deregulation吗？
你真的知道啥被deregulate了吗？
这场经济危机正是
由于国家政策上出于可负担房屋的共产理念，
liberal政客对两房的deregulation,
liberal流氓无产者胁迫银行对低收入强制信贷.
造成subprime mortgage泛滥，
流氓无产者最终无法负担造成的。
完全脱离了free market本质。
两房是什么?
那可是正宗的国家政府企业,是你要打倒其他的资本家们而真正建立的共产实体！
对了,你有没有脑子啊。自己会不会思考啊？
你真能理解你读的那点垃圾吗？ |
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Q*u
发帖数: 142 | 13 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: Qiu (邱), 信区: Stock
标 题: 经济危机是民主党一手造成的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Nov 8 22:42:27 2009, 美东)
看到有人把经济危机归于共和党的deregulation，实在忍不住说两句。
经济危机不是因为deregulation，而是有太多的regulation，这些regulation
荒唐到银行为了避免诉讼而不得不做出很多违背自身经济利益的事情。
Carter搞了个Community Reinvestment Act，
Clinton为了拉老黑劳模的选票，极大地加强了Community Reinvestment Act的适用范
围，
使得银行如果不给黑人/劳模社区贷款的话，很容易被告，巨额settlement，
民主党又通过国会要求fannie mae, fredie mac给次级贷款担保，
来降低穷人贷款利率，增加黑人/劳模的home ownership比例，
subprime基本都是黑人/劳模，尽管它们人在美国只占少数。
结果大家都知道，银行不得不给完全没有性用/没有 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 14
Clinton let the Nasdaq bubble develop and then collapse b4 Bush came in.
Clinton repealed Glass Steagall act to allow Wall St. casino go crazy.
Clinton added fuel to subprime mortgage industry that exploded later on.
Clinton failed. |
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r*******t
发帖数: 8550 | 15 What?
What little Bush did compare to Clinton:
1) Bush: Expand Government, Hire more Government employees
Clinton: Cut down Government, much less Government employees
2) Bush: Expand Military Spending, which is 10 x (universal healthcare
spending)
Clinton: Cut down Military Spending HUGE
3) Bush: encourage bubble in SubPrime Loans
Clinton: Courage builders to sell certain units to lower income people by
offering tax credits to increase diversifications.
4) BUSH: Stupidest President in r |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 16 Bush: encourage bubble in SubPrime Loans?
Not try to defend bush, but at least you need to get your facts straight
first.
lol..
by |
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r*******t
发帖数: 8550 | 17 Most law supporting Subprime Loans signed by Bush. Bush could veto them but
he didn't.
LOL! |
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Z*****l
发帖数: 14069 | 18 俺刚才贴的那词条里面，生产过剩只是这次recession原因的一种说法，还是在2.7的几
个其它说法里面，还是加形容词是global生产过剩主要怪中国印度。恐怕不能这么肯定
就是这个原因。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_crisis_of_2008
2 Causes
2.1 Debate over origins
2.2 Subprime lending as a cause
2.3 Government deregulation as a cause
2.4 Over-leveraging, credit default swaps and collateralized debt
obligations as causes
2.5 Credit creation as a cause
2.6 Oil prices
2.7 Other claimed causes |
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f******x
发帖数: 2260 | 19 Paulson is only betting on future. GS doesn't know it's junk, if it knows,
it would short the junk Paulson Sells. In fact, GS is flat on the trade.
Think SEC/Media used to maintain that GS shorts subprime. At the time
Paulson made the bet, most people don't believe the bubble and GS was net
long. By the time mortgages melt down, GS is net flat. So GS didn't lose
much but didn't gain either.
The conflict of interest is true but Paulson should be sued too since it
knows that it should be put on th |
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d****z
发帖数: 9503 | 20 It was well known that John Paulson thought subprime mortgage backed
security were junk at that time. Paulson NEVER told anyone that those CDOs
were gold. However, the majority in the market at that time thought John
Paulson was dead wrong. And those buyers were more than happy to take
advantage of the "stupidity" of Paulson.
Whenever you sell something, you, by definition, think the price is more
than its value for you. There is nothing wrong about it. If you sell a stock
and then it goes down, |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 21 April 16, 2010
Investor Who Made Billions Is Not Target of Suit
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON and LOUISE STORY
Three and half years ago, a New York hedge fund manager with a bearish view
on the housing market was pounding the pavement on Wall Street.
Eager to increase his bets against subprime mortgages, the investor, John A.
Paulson, canvassed firm after firm, looking for new ways to profit from
home loans that he was sure would go sour.
Only a few investment banks agreed to help him. One was Deutsche |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 22 April 17, 2010
For Goldman, a Bet’s Stakes Keep Growing
By LOUISE STORY and GRETCHEN MORGENSON
For Goldman Sachs, it was a relatively small transaction. But for the bank
— and the rest of Wall Street — the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Accusations that Goldman defrauded customers who bought investments tied to
risky subprime mortgages have only just begun to reverberate through the
financial world.
The civil lawsuit that the Securities and Exchange Commission filed against
Goldman on Friday seemed |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 23 also i really want to have someone investigate into fnm and fre to see why
all the risky subprime mortgages were even allowed and forced as our huge tax
dollar is in stake.
they |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 24 拉倒吧。
the first 8 months of obama deficit surpass bush 8 years combined. If not
for fnm/fre libtard communism subprime mortgages, we wont have today's
situation.
任感的总统，不像小树丛，我下台之后，哪怕洪水滔天。。。 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 25 Ben Bernanke's Inflation Deception --
and What to Do About It
Ann Coulter
Dear Fellow Conservative,
Prices are soaring. From milk to gasoline, the things you buy every day are
skyrocketing.
Yet when '60 Minutes' asked Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke what "
degree of confidence" he had in his ability to prevent inflation from
getting out of control, he responded with a jaw-dropping "100 percent"!
Even Diane Sawyer's expression changed, and that hasn't happened since the
late 70's.
Even Andy... 阅读全帖 |
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a**x
发帖数: 255 | 26 lol
鼓励信用过于透支以及超多的subprime mortgage是谁造成的?Clinton.
Obama还诉过银行不放贷给无信用低收入.
民主党向来只管拉屎让共和党擦 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 27 By Richard Baehr
The Obama administration wants to "pivot" to jobs. A bit late, I would say.
They wasted a year pushing health care reform. That passed with zero
Republican votes in the House and Senate, and about the same number of
Republican ideas. When the Democrats controlled both branches of Congress
and the White House, they shoved their approach down the throats of
Republican in Congress, and an American public that opposed it then, and
still opposes the legislation by a 3-to-2 margi... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 28 你傻啊. 第二次的时候民主党已经控制参众两院两年了, 通过了无数nc的法律, 那个
subprime就是民主党沙比通过的硬要银行借钱给黑鬼买房子的法律搞出来的. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 29 谁应该为次贷风暴负责？
作者:鲁克
2008-10-03 08:30:54
奥巴马和麦凯恩首场辩论由经济议题开始，围绕金融救助，开支，税收等等议题，足足
辩论了三十分钟。谁胜谁负，我暂时留给各位读者自己结论。
不过，在回答是否要通过金融救助来结束这场次贷风暴造成的金融危机时，奥巴马严厉
指责布什说“金融危机罪魁祸首是布什的经济政策，而同时麦凯恩曾是这些失败的政策
支持者。”奥巴马直截了当把这顶所谓的“失败的经济政策”大帽子扣到布什头上，而
其后他并没有再给出对此的解释。
那我们就要追问一下奥巴马先生：“为什么说布什政府的经济政策错了，到底是他任期
哪些条政策造成了如此可怕的金融危机？”扣帽子很容易，如果没有逻辑和常理来胡乱
扣帽子，那么你的言论还有没有意义。
我们现在回过头来讨论一下次贷风暴，都知道这次所谓的经济危机，不是发生在Main
Street（缅因街），不是普罗大众的商业经济整体出了大问题（在今年前两季度美国的
GDP也不是负增长）而是Wall Street（华尔街）出了事情，是一次金融界的信贷危机，
当然Wall Street 的坍塌，必定会拉Main Street下水，... 阅读全帖 |
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l*******y
发帖数: 862 | 30 共和党的广告当然是只说自己好的。 别忘了Banking deregulation 是里根开始的哦，
布什在位的8年是subprime闹得最凶的，全怪民主党？总统怎么当的？布什的财政部长
还是高盛的前CEO, 共和党能干净到那去？ |
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y*****1
发帖数: 316 | 31 subprime的主因是民主党,这点你不能否认.
当然bush是烂人,没有挡住民主党,这点他是要负责的. |
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y*****1
发帖数: 316 | 32 and dont give me it is all bush's fault crap again.
as we all know, subprime mortgage was all propelled by democraps unaffodable
housing act and deregulations on GSE.
if you dont know what i am talking about. you can take a sneak peak example
of ex-NJ governer,民主diang忠诚的老diang员 Jon corzine and his MF global.
obama bin biden 曾经这么评价过jon.
“You know what we were doing? We were on the phone calling Jon Corzine —
literally. I literally picked up the phone and called Jon Corzine, and said,
‘Jon, what... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 33 Downgrade of Debt Ratings Underscores Europe’s Woes
By LIZ ALDERMAN and RACHEL DONADIO
PARIS — Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit ratings of France, Italy
and seven other European countries on Friday, a move that may have more
symbolic than fundamental financial impact but served as a reminder that
Europe’s economic woes were far from over.
Another memory jog came Friday from Greece, the original source of Europe’s
debt troubles. Talks hit a snag between the new Greek government and the
ban... 阅读全帖 |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 34 Obama: subprime, a good idea.
you know, socialism is also a good idea. |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 35 拉倒把
obama acorn lawyer, 跟银行打官司,逼着人家贷次贷的.
还alarm呢.
John
degree,
two |
|
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 37 why libtards are so lack of basic facts?
ok, how about this,
google
Buycks-Roberson v. Citibank Fed. Sav. Bank Fair Housing/Lending/Insurance
Docket / Court 94 C 4094 ( N.D. Ill. ) FH-IL-0011
State/Territory Illinois
and this is your homework. |
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P*********0
发帖数: 4321 | 38 You know basic facts?
Why you didn't know GOP was backstabbing your founding fathers by mandates?
Back to the lawsuit. Who won and based on what?
See how well you did your homework. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 39 On the evening of January 11, 1996, while Mitt Romney was in the final years
of his run as the head of Bain Capital, Barack Obama formally joined the
New Party, which was deeply hostile to the mainstream of the Democratic
party and even to American capitalism. In 2008, candidate Obama deceived the
American public about his potentially damaging tie to this third party. The
issue remains as fresh as today’s headlines, as Romney argues that Obama
is trying to move the United States toward European-... 阅读全帖 |
|
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 41 Where do you get this shit?
How we got here is because of subprime mortgage.who caused it? watch my
signature video
Also there is an auto company called ford, which takes 0 cent from obama
money, not only they survived, they survived very well. |
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y****j
发帖数: 314 | 42 你应该先了解一下什么是Subprime Lending. 政府有不可推卸的责任.
government |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 43 acorn gonna sue your ass, if you dont make the subprime mortgage loan to "
Minorities".
the |
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K******S
发帖数: 10109 | 44 1: Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) was strengthened during Clinton time
2: At then attorney General Janet Reno actually prosecuted several banks for
racism landing criteria.
3: HUD (The Dept. of Housing and Urban Development) authorized Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac to buy mortgage-backed securities (a lot of subprime and
other risky loans)
4: investment banks and wall street follows because even government is
backing the sub-prime loans. |
|
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p******o
发帖数: 9007 | 46 How much subprime mortgage F&F bought? |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 47 open your favorite search engine.
type
subprime mortgage bought by gse |
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p******o
发帖数: 9007 | 48 I see this, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis
"In the mid-2000s, GSE securitization declined dramatically as a share of
overall securitization, while private label securitization dramatically
increased.[1] Most of the growth in private label securitization was through
high-risk subprime and Alt-A mortgages.[1] As private securitization gained
market share and the GSEs retreated, mortgage quality declined dramatically
.[1] The worst performing mortgages were securitized by the... 阅读全帖 |
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p******o
发帖数: 9007 | 49 Private sector 84%, GSE 16%.
Private sector did like subprime mortgage very much. Why? I will enlighten
those who are willing to listen later. |
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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 50 let me ask you again.
what is the total amount of subprime mortgage gse held at that moment. |
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