f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 1 on this board, NOBODY at low stake would fold a flopped set and turned boat
here, 99% would re-shove that short stack (1% is just for the sake of being
"objective").
he just got a weak hand (something like J9o etc.) and thought he'd take it
down here. he didn't see you could check raise river at all, now he had to
donate more $$ because of crying odds.
he'd shove even he only got a str8. |
|
t****t
发帖数: 95 | 2 On the flop, what do you do when your opponent is on a flush draw and
pushes
all-in first, while you have the top set or straight flopped? |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 3 call, 101% of times.
2:1 ahead, if we're afraid of that 1, then no poker, hehe. |
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t****t
发帖数: 95 | 4 That's what I did. BUT, my biggest variance came from these lately. |
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p*******p
发帖数: 13670 | 5 i will thank god and kiss their stinky ass all day long!
oh, also to call |
|
p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 6 that is just part of game. nothing you can do. it is a game of imcomplete
informatin and uncertainty. Getting in with good sharp is pretty much the
best you can do lots of time. |
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p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 7 lol. I always like Li Shu's post style. too bad that we miss you in Vegas
party. |
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t****t
发帖数: 95 | 8 right! the rest of it is beyond our control.
Indeed, in terms of pot odds, I had some thought which is related to
this
topic.
1. Pot odds implies the percentage hands that hit or miss.
2. for a given hand, the sequence of cards is deterministic but not
random.
3. If we must apply pot odd to one hand, the following must be true:
a) the pot size is consistently same. Here, pot odds/EV is perfectly
justified with little variance.
b) the pot size is random enough in large-number sample pool.... 阅读全帖 |
|
c******q
发帖数: 456 | 9 I feel you are talking about two things here, EV of a hand and EV of a
session. For EV of a hand, the stack size doesn't play in the math because
it is a known parameter. However in term of EV of a session, stack size is
indeed a important factor to consider (especial for a live session since you
only play limited amount of hands, a few big hands could define the result
at the end). And under certain situation, playing a hand in a -EV way is
more appropriate if it can increase your EV for the se... 阅读全帖 |
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t****t
发帖数: 95 | 10 I think we share the same thought.
To be clear of my opinion:
When you calculate EV of a given hand by number of outs and pot odds, you
already made the assumption that pot size in the long run is either
consistent or random enough. Without the assumption, it's meaningless.
you
result
this
if |
|
t****t
发帖数: 95 | 11 BTW, "In coin flip, the pot we won is smaller than the pot we lose on
average" --- I don't see any sound logic behind this.
This is an example of variance. In coin flip, if the pot we won is
smaller than the pot we lose on average, PL is not zero.
because
size is
since
you
result
is
hands
illustrated
this
disappear
if |
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 12 Pot size has no effect on whether your ev is + or - for one hand or over
long term. Variance also has no impact on true EV. Your actual money gain
or loss is only an estimate of the true EV. Variance has an impact on how
often your estimate can deviate from your true EV. It can deviate up or down
. The larger the sample size is, the less variance it has for the estimate
and it should always converge to your true EV. (We say variance, it is
really standard error which should be used to describe... 阅读全帖 |
|
T*********k
发帖数: 1621 | 13 I can't agree with you more. Excellent points.
When ppl talk about long term, we have to put players in the context.
For poker pros or ppl can play everyday, the long term could mean a year, 2
years. But for recreational players who only play 30-50 sessions a year, the
long term could mean really long. Thus stack size should be a huge factor
in our decision making process. You lose 2-3 big pots in 60% vs 40% or 55%
vs 45% situation in one session, sometimes it takes you 1-2 month or even
longer ... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******o
发帖数: 4896 | 14 laf I saw this arguements way many times.
One mathmatical side always claim bankroll management, EV, and long run.
On the other side, people always claim you cannot find a realist way to
get large sample size, thus reduce variance/sample size ratio.Thus, they
always consider protecting their stack as most important thing, even it
is -EV play(e.g., buy insurance).
I can't see either these two side can convince the other side. hahahaha
down
estimate |
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 15 I am not trying to convince anyone how they play. People can choose to play
with maximum ev and high variance or less ev and low variance or anyway they
want.
What I said here is just stat 101. I just thought there were some mis-
conception in the early post. |
|
p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 16 we can assume most ppl are gambling with limited BR. We should always think
about risk averse factor when making decision, even at poker table ie, EV
is NOT the only factor that we should consider. This is also fun part of
poker,IMO.
In Bill chen's book, it gave a simple example. If we are given a
chance to choose two following options. We use coin flip as gambling tool.
Chance are strictly 50/50
1. We keep 1 million$ without any risk/gambling.
2. We gamble 1 time coin flip,... 阅读全帖 |
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p*******p
发帖数: 13670 | 17 没bank roll的么就随便玩玩了，for fun，for fun呀
think
lose |
|
b*******s
发帖数: 1175 | 18 excellent analysis. I think this applies to most recreational players.学习了
。
think
lose |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 19 bottom set is always scary, against these 2 hands, best situation!
i posted before, once i was dealt 99 in LP, raised pot preflop.
flop: 9TJ rainbow.
MP checked and then over shoved $800 (pot was < $100), the next guy shoved
too like $900... i was sitting there like a duck for a loooooong time (i
covered both of them by a little).
finally i decided to let it go since very likely one of them hit a better
set, and i couldn't lose my $1K stack like this (big hole just filled).
both turned over the ... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 20 想起以前AC的一个大锅，什么牌不记得了，反正赢家是str8，3-way，~$6K的大锅。
结果人家只给了dealer $5，dealer气愤了N天，象祥林大嫂一样逢人就说，呵呵。
1/2能有这样的锅，可能也算记录了。 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 21 FT, shhhhh, could you just keep your voice lower???
1) hand 1:
black 99 at LP, 3 limpers, i raise to $11, all call + BB.
flop: Qs8dTc, very shitty one for my holding in 5-way, even with position.
all check to me, i don't think i can take it down here with a c-bet, so i
check.
turn: 9d
it hits me but also a ton of other hands, all still check to me, i still
check.
river: Td
BB (a short stack) leads out $35 (with ~$20 left), tight ABC lady calls, i
shove $170. BB snap calls, lady tables KJo or tur... 阅读全帖 |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 22 small hands, and don't be result oriented, right? lol.
another 2 hands:
1) first hand of this session, i am BB with 8Jo, 5 limpers.
flop: 7c9cTc, damn, isn't this nut str8?
i bet $10, 1 caller, ABC lady pops up to $35, before i re-evaluate what is
going on, LP shoves $100.
i happily muck. lady calls with Kc3c, and LP shows Jc6c.
2) 5 hands later, i got AsKs at MP.
straddle pot, MP (a regular) makes it $20, one caller, i call too, action is
back to straddler who looks like an internet kid, he imm... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 23 is very easy... lol.
trash 67o, family limped pot to me at CO, BTN calls too.
it's very funny i am having this pic in my head, "en, i haven't flopped
anything today, maybe this one is diff."
one by one, the dealer reveals the flop: 589 rainbow, holy moly.
some MP guy jokingly bets $5, one caller, i pop up small to $15 to keep them
in and build a pot.
BTN suddenly announces he's all-in for $800!!!
a little history about him: he claims he owns 5 gas stations (or he's rich)
in VA. he short buys in ... 阅读全帖 |
|
p*******p
发帖数: 13670 | 24 utg is relatively short stack and there are possible flush and str8 draws, u
really need to worry is bb,
u have k9, so kk or 99 (kk is very unlikely since BB doesn't 3bet pre), only
1 combo each, and 3 combo 88, that's all the combo can beat u, and total 5
(probably 4 combo) are your coolers, the rest you are either a small
favorite (against combo draws) or big favorite (against small 2 pairs),
really depends on your imagine and history, and your style
for me? TOP 2 here are good enough, after a... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 25 自从WV的BBJ上了100K，目前是260K以后，一群老头老太连平时都能开2桌3/6，活脱脱
的一个现实版手株待兔，呵呵。
不过也别笑，今年以来，已经在3/6桌上打爆了至少2次。其中一次一个不会玩的小白女
，过生日来玩，quad 7s lost to str8 flush，拿了90K。事前信口说给同伴一半，结
果真给了，赞。 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 26 haha, same thing in WV, even on boring tuesdays, you can find 2 3/6 tables.
old guys are all hunting for this.
and i guess they might even have a plan, say, if you're chasing a gutshot
str8 flush, touch your nose twice or so...
.. |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 27 上周末。
AA river set又搞死了KK flopped set，现在人称河神。
Q5o runner runner boat on 256QQ，臭小子34o flopped nut str8，turn上raise，哥
river induce $20, 家伙raises to $50，哥shove $200，pot有$200多... 孙子想了半
天，哥听岔了，翻牌早了，被丫赖掉。
KsTs reshoves on 5s4s5c flop，然后turn 8s，清空preflop aggressor老黑。
赖掉俺boat的，最后被俺55 flopped set，TsJs flopped 2 pair (vs. QQ)连着两把正
义的灭掉，还不包括中间被俺诈的。离桌悲嚎，you got my number!
在众人评为石头的评论中，扬长而去。 |
|
D********i
发帖数: 78 | 28 semi-bluff with both nut flush draw and gut-shut str8 draw.
Ac10x or Ac8x
maybe? |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 29 of course, no wonder they call this WSOD, or world series of donks (where
did these donks get that $10K buy-in from? lol)
they push hard and put their tourney life on the line with 5th and 6th nuts,
just to ignore they're:
1) drawing dead vs. over set, 1 or 2 hands;
2) 1:4 big dog vs. made str8, 3 hands.
in order to crush the so-called semi-bluff range:
1) slightly behind 2 combos, SFD;
2) even money with FD+gutshots, a few hands;
3) 2:1 or "huge" favorite vs. FD or SD only, tons of hands.
very ... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 30 1/2NL, loose aggressive table.
limped pot, LAG with 1K at BTN raises to $15. he does $7-10 blocking/
stealing bets a lot, but rarely $15.
BB, MP and another call.
flop: TcJcQh, BB bets $30, MP (another LAG) quickly raises to $100, all fold
to BTN, he stands up and announces all-in, yes, $1K.
BB calls with his last $200, MP doesn't even think and calls with his last $
800!
so we're looking at a pot of $2K+, very rare in this low stake game, and
with big stacks from 2 LAGs who're more than ready t... 阅读全帖 |
|
p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 31 suppose we're dealt an SC (54s-JTs), we want to know the odds of flopping a
big draw, flush draw or 8-outer straight draw.
flush draw is trivial, total flop combo =(50 3)=19600. target flop combo =(
11 2)*(39 1)=2145. hence, Pr(FD)=2145/19600=10.94%.
somehow I cannot get the odds for straight draw (8 outers: OESD or double
belly) correct. the number I got is 9.7% whereas the correct number
available online (or from software) is 9.6%. could someone check to see what
's wrong with the following ca... 阅读全帖 |
|
p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 32 true, when you use it, you don't really need the exact number. for instance,
you probably only need to know ~10% chance for FD, ~10% for OESD, ~20%
chance flopping FD/OESD (19.1% to be exact), and 2% flopping flush or str8.
but when I tried to derive the numbers (to help myself memorize them), it's
different: if I cannot get the exact number, something must be wrong. |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 33 来自主题: TexasHoldem版 - 这把也挺搞 these are from two diff angles:
1) wait and see, by calling;
2) commit and go, by shoving.
with 1/3 stack in (if call), this is already way beyond committment
threshold. if i'm counting on a free card or will be able to fold on a
paired turn, then i should just lay down here on flop.
i only hit the turn 18% or less (if one of them is drawing too), that means
82% of time i have to lay down without seeing the river.
it's 3-way, if they're afraid of a 4-card str8 turn, then what kind of river
would... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 34 8h9h, limp at UTG, 5 limpers including one LAG.
flop: 7dTdJs, bang
i lead out $10, one new guy next to me calls, short LAG (black dude) moves
in for $48, others all fold.
new guy apparently got very excited, shouts, "hey, i don't know about you,
but whether you call or not, i'll go all-in..."
he and i each got $300 left, and he looks serious to me.
what should i do? |
|
|
S**********n
发帖数: 250 | 36 Case 1: Flopped Straight vs Flopped Straight---Wrong time for him to get
excited
Case 2: Flopped Straight vs Flopped Set---Time to Gamble!!!
Case 3: Flopped Straight vs Two Pair---Odds in your favor
Case 4: Flopped Straight vs Straight Flush Draw---Odds in your favor
Case 5,6,7... You win |
|
n***a
发帖数: 274 | 37 his speech seems to be a tell of combo draws, u'r slightly behind KQdd and
Q9dd HU. However, the lag is probably holding the villain's outs which makes
your calling a little more justified.
当然还有很多各种各样的draw，只要不是straight w/ free roll老大的odds都不错。
Speaking as a nit if we worry too much about variance, this might be a spot
for a fold |
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 38 pause a sec and say "i have to peel one here, call" and hope for a shove.
shove blank turn if he just calls flop. |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 39 1) from the too excited way he talks, i know he must have a monster, bluff
is out of question.
2) apparently he under estimates my hand too.
3) the pot is odd, with one short stack in.
i tank for a few secs, and raise to $100 ($52 on top of $48), he immediately
shoves as said. damn, i guess i have to take variance/free roll/whatever now
, and i call.
yes, he got 89o with 9d too, a semi runner runner free roll.
river pairs the board, and short stack triples with a boat (flopped T7o
bottom 2 pair)... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*******o
发帖数: 4896 | 40 好像一般情况下正常的3way allin这里你的胜率估计也就是coin flip吧，比如一个set
一个flush draw
最怕被人freeroll，那太惨了
now |
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 41 这在Holdem 里被free roll 的可能性太小了。 这又不是PLO. 150bb 也不是深筹码。
这里就是要想方设法把筹码在flop全放进去。 如果这里有人考虑要fold, 那么1/2$
may be too big a stake for him.
set |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 42 来自主题: TexasHoldem版 - 新手求指点 hand 1: don't be worried of being bluffed. yes, it happens but far less
often in low stakes than you might think. oftentimes actually it's us who
talk ourselves into a hero/impulsive call (and ignore a lot of strong
indications), and then kick ourselves hard at the show down.
for this hand, you noticed he's tight already, and on this dry board, unless
he's extremely familiar with your play style, it's very unlikely he'd:
1) chase big and catch a gutshot str8;
2) or hit 6 on the turn;
3) or float... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 43 earlier this week, the BBJ ($300K) was hit again in WV. as said before, WV
has "tiered" (as i call it) BBJs, i.e., once the main BBJ is over $100K,
they start to put a portion into the 2nd BBJ, and so on... i like it because
at any time, there'll always be a decent pot, instead of one huge BBJ got
hit, and nobody wants to play for a long while after.
ok, back to the drama, losing hand, quad 9s (quad 7s are the minimum),
winning hand KQs for a str8 flush.
the KQs guy got toooooo excited and threw... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 44 what?!
don't you see this is a lottery ticket? the new poker game in MD (oh, now i
see).
$2 each ticket, computer picked cards, you got 2 chances to win a prize.
1) instant win, if you make a hand better than Js using 5 cards (Js, $2, 2
pair, $3, .... str8 flush $1K, royal $10K);
2) then there's another daily drawing, if you match 2+ cards, you win from $
3 to $100K.
pretty good and fun game. |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 45 最近有点忙，好歹周末了，玩几把吧。
衰得难以置信，三个小时下来，一把牌都没赢，这也没什么，连一个turn都没看到，一
把也没preflop“错”fold，牌力之烂，你懂的，史上罕见，无聊得开始看WSOP新闻，
打愤怒的小鸟。
然后这把，Kh7h跟在后面call了四个人的$12，flop all low, 2 hearts，UTG bets $
60，一看就剩130了，无脑推，turn Jh赢了，老墨很气愤的亮出KK，哦，原来俺outs没
那么多啊。
未久，老墨又是EP opens $17, 3 callers, loose table，哥SB，认真看了看红AA，慎
重考虑了看flop的风险，raise to $81，老墨显然还有气，all-in $400，其他人识趣
闪开，哥$300勇士欣然应战，再次不幸整死KK。
两把下来，哥的萎缩形象在被遗忘的角落得到极大改观。
在开始那么挫的情况下，五个小时up将近400，基本实现老湿说的神仙水平，准备归家。
UTG，哥一看一对JJ，太弱了，limp，MP raises to $10, 3 callers，哥看odds正好
call。
flop有... 阅读全帖 |
|
d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 46 "鉴于事态严重，对方又是比较tight nit chip leader，哥慎重的考虑了杯具在quad
7s
和str8 flush手里的可能性，但是心想
*****不能丢老中的脸******，
更何况旁桌一个亚洲一流美女
含情脉脉，哥发出了呐喊，all-in。" |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 47 这牌俺自己打臭了，觉得她多少有点中等以上货，面上还有broadway呢，遭遇战不是很
了解，看她象是个有经验磨豆腐的，直觉了一下就装毛驴overbet，欠考虑。
这牌常规平平的bet个$20，没准weak Kx, Jx之类的还有看看showdown的欲望，她真中了
trip，str8以上的大牌，还有raise/shove的空间。
臭，poker god更臭，也不顺带给丫一个AK，多美好。
nuts |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 48 1/2NL, i'm new to this table, only for 2 rounds, not quite familiar with how
each one plays.
well, i feel the table is kind of weak so open and bluff twice, medium pots,
take down both, but i can sense ppl are getting suspicious. there're two 1K
+ stacks on my left and right, so i better be careful, lol.
then this hand comes, i "unfortunately" pick up red AA from CO, 2 limpers, i
pop up to $15, BB and both call.
flop: 894 rainbow, all check to me, i bet $30 (when i bluff, i bet this much
too), o... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 49 I doubt I will play fri./sat. night sessions again. it's just simple, you
either have to be there before 5PM or after 1AM, otherwise you're wasting 2
hours of your life... and for what? 1/2? you got to be kidding, right?
now since it's like my home game, I could hit there any time I want or can
go. it solved my #1 leak in donkey poker, emotion control.
here I have to say it again and again, it's always about disciplines. I don'
t care if our AA/KK/flush/str8/whatever, got sucked X times in a row... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 50 介个，烂人实在太多了，尤其脏兮兮的那些老油条，赢个200乐翻天，输了就耍街头无
赖。
1)拿大牌千万别冲昏头脑；
2)钱不 $$全部$$ --进锅确认，决不亮牌；
3)在对方没有亮出经过dealer确认的牌前，绝不轻易muck自己的牌；
4) muck之前一定确认两遍没看错，没漏看str8之类的组合，因为有些赌场是不允许同
桌的人提醒你的；
5)如果还要加注，一定沉着，先口头申明raise，再想好数好，别不小心string bet痛
失value；
6)不要激动过度，漏掉后面还在局内还没说话的玩家，你要拿个第N nuts，高兴早亮牌
，对不起，人家后面有的是折磨你的法子;
7)muck的大牌没有必要亮给桌子看，除了得到廉价的唏嘘，一点意义没有，相反，你打
大牌的整条思路，压注大小，步骤尽在别人眼里。
.......
题外话，MDL阳台上藏污纳垢，有一圈吸大麻的，还盛情要给俺chop chop，lol。还有2
楼不愿意下去上厕所的，直接就在阳台角落里开干了，所以如果哪天你开车路过，突遇
雨露，莫要奇怪。还有爱吹牛逼的，那天一个打2/5的巴拿马小伙子，给大家讲自己在
巴拿马惹了黑帮边缘份子... 阅读全帖 |
|
