H******e
发帖数: 4682 | 1 hehe, why short it riskier than long? I think long and short are the same
risky level... |
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u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 2 Why has the stock market been rallying during the past five months? In
hindsight, it seems simple. As long as the Fed or any other central bank (
most recently, the Bank of Japan) is printing money, then stocks rally.
As I have been writing in recent months (Read Viewpoints: Will the sweet
spot for stocks continue?), there have been four factors supporting risk
assets since November: the economy, the market's technical condition (or
tape), sentiment, and monetary policy. Until a few weeks ago, t... 阅读全帖 |
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u*****e
发帖数: 744 | 3 Why has the stock market rallied during the past five months? In hindsight,
it seems simple: As long as the Fed or any other central bank is printing
money, then stocks rally.
As I have been saying, four factors have been supporting risk assets since
November: the economy, the market's technical condition, sentiment, and
monetary policy. Until a few weeks ago, the first three factors had been
losing steam and were at risk of toppling the market—or so it seemed. But
they didn’t.
In terms of the e... 阅读全帖 |
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u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 4 IBD 50 are riskier than those big cap stocks like yhoo or goog. |
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m*******l
发帖数: 621 | 5 广告：请大家顺便支持一下我们第一篇发表的文章
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1526532-a-chinese-perspective-o
1. 为什么要写这篇文章
从2012年5月 开始重新进入美国股市、债市，到现在刚刚满一年。一直想写一点自
己投资的心里历程。一来感谢我的投资启蒙老师（M老师），二来也提供一些经验教训
给和我一样在投资路程上摸索的新手。
2. 复利效应和股场初试
我们对投资重新开始感兴趣，主要是两个原因。一是因为M老师一直以来将他的投
资理念蕴含在和我们闲聊的过程中。现在回头想想，真是辜负和浪费了许多M老师的投
资机会。尤其是听M老师聊在2008年金融危机时的经历，让我们对投资有了一个全新的
认识。原来投资还是有可能“有章可循”。
第二个原因，是对复利效应和追求经济独立之间关系的认识（compounding effect
vs. financial independence）。当时我自己用excel坐了一个文件来看复利的效应。
如果能够保持8%到12%的年收益率，并且假定到退休以后仅以5%的固定收... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******t
发帖数: 335 | 6 Investors Struggle With Cash Conundrum
By E.S. Browning
Reuters
Charles de Vaulx has an investment idea: cash.
That may seem an odd choice, since cash earns less than inflation, making it
a money-losing proposition.
But Mr. de Vaulx, who oversees $17.8 billion as chief investment officer at
International Value Advisers in New York, has been boosting his cash
position. He is having trouble finding stocks he considers cheap and won’t
buy overvalued stocks. He considers bonds even more overvalu... 阅读全帖 |
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l******r
发帖数: 4021 | 7 U.S. stocks edged higher Tuesday and were on track to climb out of a four-da
y slump, as investors focused on earnings reports from several prominent ret
ailers.
J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) posted a big loss that was even worse than th
e forecasts. Despite that, the struggling retailer noted that its same store
sales, a key measure for retailers, were slightly better than they were dur
ing the first quarter of 2013. Shares surged in early morning trading on the
news, but then struggled to hol... 阅读全帖 |
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S*******i
发帖数: 2018 | 8 I agree this one is a bit riskier than my normal style.
I might just hold till next Tuesday or buy a weekly put by then to hedge. |
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c*******y
发帖数: 1630 | 9 it's far more complicated than you think.
first one is like a carry trade, with 2-4X leverage. Some ppl disagrees.
key is to buy(hard to find now) distressed REO/foreclosure inventory
from banks.
it's a volume business with high operational cost.
carry(rent - pmt) varies city by city. For example, in NYC metro area,
it's not easy to find possible carry now. If you buy apt units, there
is extra cost.
I asked lots of top REIT PMs, very few favored this idea. And some of
them performed very bad. Fo... 阅读全帖 |
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k******a
发帖数: 2436 | 10 Calculate portfolio beta (systematic risk)? that is only part of the risk
measure. And the text below, your port is XX% less volatile than S&P is
misleading because it hides many assumptions.
A low beta portfolio can be much more riskier than an SP index , e.g.
managed futures.
Sharpe ratio/sortino ratio is a lot better. |
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e********9
发帖数: 444 | 11 junior, more riskier, more reward |
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e********9
发帖数: 444 | 12 12月有人说biotech parabolic growth，risky
结果又涨了几个月，是不是riskier，呵呵 |
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N*****d
发帖数: 9872 | 13 BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
— 7:14 PM ET 03/24/2014
What goes up must come down, a lesson investors in some of the fastest-
climbing U.S. stocks are learning the hard way.
Shares of companies including Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA), SolarCity Corp. (
SCTY) and Twitter Inc. (TWTR) have fallen sharply this month. They are among
the most popular "momentum" stocks, favorites of day
traders but where profits are sometimes more of a hope than a reality.
For some market watchers, this selloff simply reflec... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******y
发帖数: 1630 | 14 FROM ZH
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-13/31-year-old-hedge-fund
Over the weekend, there has been some consternation over the report that the
CEOs of the 6 largest US banks: JPM, BAC, GS, MS, C and WFC, collectively
made $96.1 million in 2013, more than $86.3 million the year before and the
most since the financial crisis.
However, we are confident those same people would have an aneurism if they
were to learn that James "Jimmy" Levin, a 31-year-old hedge fund trader -
head of global cred... 阅读全帖 |
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N*****d
发帖数: 9872 | 15 John Kerry几乎每种蓝筹都有1M的仓位。经常听到股版一个谁被某个垃圾股坑了，听说
过哪个议员买股票外婆了吗？
Remember all the outrage about whether General Electric (GE +0.71%) paid
federal taxes last year? There weren't too many complaints from Congress
about that, even though the country probably could have used that money.
Maybe this explains the silence: GE is the No. 1 stock investment for
members of Congress, with 75 of them holding shares, according to CNBC.
The top GE investors were Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who was in for at
least ... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 16 The run of A shrs is amazing |
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u******n
发帖数: 5727 | 17 both are the very good bets.. |
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l*********t
发帖数: 1067 | 18 赌场，而且是老千横行，but you can still make money, still, i think etf here
for china market is riskier |
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d****m
发帖数: 1008 | 19 of course ETF is less risky except leveraged ETF.
Buying one single stock and buying a mixed portfolio of stocks, which is
riskier? |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 20 Now that the Fed will raise rates, can it?
Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
benchmark rate to: Can it?
Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually ... 阅读全帖 |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 21 Now that the Fed will raise rates, can it?
Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
benchmark rate to: Can it?
Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually ... 阅读全帖 |
|
d**z
发帖数: 3577 | 22 The Year the Hedge-Fund Model Stalled on Main Street
By Sarah Krouse
Dec. 30, 2015 6:59 p.m. ET
Enthusiasm is fading for what had become one of the hottest products in
asset management
It is getting a lot harder to sell hedge-fund-style investing to the masses.
More “liquid alternative” mutual funds closed in 2015 than in any year on
record, according to research firm Morningstar Inc., as inflows dwindled and
performance weakened.
The results show that enthusiasm is fading for what had emerged i... 阅读全帖 |
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p******m
发帖数: 758 | 23 They could be more leveraged, exposed to riskier assets, etc. |
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q********g
发帖数: 10694 | 24 最近科密厉害啊，用词都很专业。
Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. |
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g*******h
发帖数: 1327 | 25 No where is this comparable to 2008.... see below
A 10% appreciation in the dollar will cut U.S. GDP by 0.4% after one year;
An increase in BBB yields of 1%—as investors move away from riskier
corporate borrowers—will lower GDP by 0.2%;
A sustained 20% decline in the S&P 500—which may be the result of increased
volatility following the vote—lowers GDP by 0.2% and raises the
unemployment rate by 0.1%; and
A 100 basis-point decline in the 10-year rate U.S. Treasury rate—as
investors flee to the sa... 阅读全帖 |
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h********o
发帖数: 3320 | 26 Stock market看的不是当前的价值，从来都不是，而是未来的发展和前景。strong
dollar会降低公司未来的预期，前一段时间已经降低一次了，再降低预期说明目前在下
降，前景不明确，就是GDP再好，前景要下降，stock仍然会跌。market从来看的都不是
当前的价值。
: No where is this comparable to 2008.... see below
: A 10% appreciation in the dollar will cut U.S. GDP by 0.4% after one
year;
: An increase in BBB yields of 1%—as investors move away from riskier
: corporate borrowers—will lower GDP by 0.2%;
: A sustained 20% decline in the S |
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h********o
发帖数: 3320 | 27 Stock market看的不是当前的价值，从来都不是，而是未来的发展和前景。strong
dollar会降低公司未来的预期，前一段时间已经降低一次了，再降低预期说明目前在下
降，前景不明确，就是GDP再好，前景要下降，stock仍然会跌。market从来看的都不是
当前的价值。
: No where is this comparable to 2008.... see below
: A 10% appreciation in the dollar will cut U.S. GDP by 0.4% after one
year;
: An increase in BBB yields of 1%—as investors move away from riskier
: corporate borrowers—will lower GDP by 0.2%;
: A sustained 20% decline in the S |
|
发帖数: 1 | 28 No recession until late 2020, so keep buying stocks, Credit Suisse says
A U.S. recession won't happen until the third quarter of 2020, and in the
meantime stocks are a good bet, says Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Garthwaite.
High volatility is also here to stay, meaning credit is riskier than equity,
Garthwaite says.
He suggested staying underweight cyclicals such as consumer discretionary,
materials and industrials, calling the group "expensive" and "over-owned."
"At this stage of yield curve fl... 阅读全帖 |
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T*******y
发帖数: 6523 | 29 I really don't know the differences between such subtle wordings. If you
really want to know what Liu meant, you could ask him. That's how I got his
explanations earlier.
In one way, the numerical evaluation and its associated wording may help
people gain a better understanding of their cases. However, in another way,
this evaluation really limits people's thinking.
Being 70% or 80% probable, does it make much difference in your case's
preparation or the final result? If Liu said risky, would yo... 阅读全帖 |
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p*******l
发帖数: 2495 | 30 I see. If you can get your NIW approved, NIW generally is quicker than PERM
(i.e., you might get an earlier PD), and there are only two steps: 140+485
For PERM, you have to get the prevailing wage, post the ad, get the PERM
approved (this process can take a long time) and when PERM is approved, 140+
485.
However, if the lawyer is good, PERM should easily get approved (although
many people get audited too). NIW might be riskier comparing with PERM.
Many company lawyers would suggest you to go wit... 阅读全帖 |
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T*******y
发帖数: 6523 | 31 Okay, I see. It's similar to that F visa holder applies for green card.
It's theoretically not compatible with F or J, but before F or J expires,
the F or J may be still in effect in practice, although risky.
F is even riskier than J, as F may not be renewed or the OPT may not be
granted, but J can be renewed.
the approved J waiver. |
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j**********9
发帖数: 5431 | 32 Capitalone portfolio targets on relative riskier population, like low credit
score people or new coming students.
They have pretty good risk controls about this kind of portfilio.
Comparing with Chase, Citi, or AMX, capitalone is easier to get for people
who just start building credit history.
But as the trade-off, some capitalone cards' apr or some fees related will be a little higher |
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T*R
发帖数: 36302 | 33 随便GOOGLE了一下：
Price of cardiac ablation?
I have insurance but I'm told it won't cover the whole thing, so I wonder if
anyone knows how much a procedure like this might cost?
Best Answer - Chosen by Voters
Well I just had one last Sept 20, '07 at UPMC in Pittsburgh....It cost total
$44,000....my insurance ended up paying the whole thing because they had to
move me from one hospital to another b/c the one covered at 100% did/could
not perform the procedure there. So....they had no choice to pay. I ... 阅读全帖 |
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a***x
发帖数: 26368 | 34 en,其实叫riskier fund更合适。。。 |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 35 (1) 泡沫: 股市, bit frothy有点泡沫:房市
(2) 全球余震: 投资者预期美国更高的回报，从新兴市场自己的钱拿出来
(3) 稀缺的工作机会
(4) 政治干预
-----------------------------------
(1) Bubbles. They’re hard to spot when you’re in them, but there certainly
is some risk that artificially low interest rates have pushed stock prices
a lot higher than they’d be otherwise. Bernard Baumohl of the Economic
Outlook Group points out that margin debt—which is basically borrowed money
used to buy stocks--is at an all-time high of $445 billion, driven at least
in p... 阅读全帖 |
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a*******6
发帖数: 38 | 36 We refinance our first mortgage.The house is worth 200k even. We are doing
cash out refinance at 80% meaning the new loan is going to be 160k. The 160k
is going to pay off 60k existing loan. That would leave us about 100k in
the bank. We don't have 2nd mortgage nor any other debt.I was shocked to
hear the rate comparing what you guys reporting here. The only thing i could
think of was the cash out factor. It is considered riskier for lenders.
After reading the other comment, I went ahead to call... 阅读全帖 |
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c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 37 跟你们这些自以为是的美国乡巴佬讲讲：最好跟聪明的中国老百姓们学学：看到事故现
场不要随便乱动， 要不然加州最高法院要你倾家荡产！
Good Samaritans get no aid from high court
Civilian rescuers can be sued for injuries from nonmedical care.
December 19, 2008|Carol J. Williams
Being a good Samaritan in California just got a little riskier.
The California Supreme Court ruled Thursday that a young woman who pulled a
co-worker from a crashed vehicle isn't immune from civil liability because
the care she rendered wasn't medical.
The divided high court appeared to sig... 阅读全帖 |
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Y******u
发帖数: 1912 | 38 if u haven't hit income limit, max roth ira first. even if u hit, u can also
do the trick (put money in normal ira and transfer to roth)
for old 401k money, don't transfer to roth immediately because of income tax
. if you foreseen in the future u may have less income (go to school again
or take a long vacation etc), transfer to roth at that time.
if u don't know how to invest, read some online articles about personal
portfolio allocation first and choose the style u want. u can get a lot of
inf... 阅读全帖 |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 39
before
You just bought the property last year and your current principle payment is
already 50% of your monthly payment for a 30-year loan. How is that
possible?
If as you said you are only paying 1500 on mortgage interest how can you get
$1000 tax savings on your mortgage payment? Please don't tell me your
marginal tax rate is 66% -- you wouldn't need a loan in that case.
Your down payment could be earning 2-3% even if we are using long term
treasury yield as the benchmark. In reality, your mo... 阅读全帖 |
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b********2
发帖数: 5191 | 40 【 以下文字转载自 CaliforniaMortgage 俱乐部 】
发信人: blueangel2 (Feedback is power), 信区: CaliforniaMortgage
标 题: Interest Rates Jump to Highest Level in Three Months zz
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Aug 15 19:03:37 2012, 美东)
Treasury yields moved to their highest level in three-months Wednesday, as
selling hit the bonds sought as the safest haven in a scary world just a
month ago.
Traders said improving U.S. economic data was behind the selling. But they
also pointed to a big seller overnight during the Asian session... 阅读全帖 |
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y****i
发帖数: 778 | 41 You need to compare after tax return and timing of the market. I can put
every penny to individual tax free muni bonds with 4-6% yield and insured by
AGM or MBIA because the interest can offset the down side risks. High
dividend stocks have same function that's why they are less riskier than
normal stock but the dividend has to be stable. When bond interest goes up
or lower 1%, a 20 or 30 year bond can move 20-30% of the mark price. Buy and
sell bonds to make capital gains are not fundamental st... 阅读全帖 |
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 42 The tax free yield for series D 2027 3.6%, 2030 3.9%, equal to 5.5% and 6%
before tax return. If you refinance 15 year mortgage 2.5-2.625%, you can
make money easily. CA PWB bond never default in history, though
theoretically a little bit riskier than GO bond.
GO) |
|
m*******l
发帖数: 621 | 43 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: maizegirl (叮当), 信区: Stock
标 题: 股市债市投资经验小结
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jul 13 11:49:58 2013, 美东)
广告：请大家顺便支持一下我们第一篇发表的文章
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1526532-a-chinese-perspective-o
1. 为什么要写这篇文章
从2012年5月 开始重新进入美国股市、债市，到现在刚刚满一年。一直想写一点自
己投资的心里历程。一来感谢我的投资启蒙老师（M老师），二来也提供一些经验教训
给和我一样在投资路程上摸索的新手。
2. 复利效应和股场初试
我们对投资重新开始感兴趣，主要是两个原因。一是因为M老师一直以来将他的投
资理念蕴含在和我们闲聊的过程中。现在回头想想，真是辜负和浪费了许多M老师的投
资机会。尤其是听M老师聊在2008年金融危机时的经历，让我们对投资有了一个全新的
认识。原来投资还是有可能“有章可循”。
第二个原因，是对复利效应和追求经济独立... 阅读全帖 |
|
m********8
发帖数: 7463 | 44 来自主题: SanFrancisco版 - 说说租房？ Rents are really sticky--- or "autoregressive"--- meaning once it went up,
it takes a long time for them to go down.
Normally you would see "incentives" on rents before nominal values go down.
And there is no freaking incentives whatsoever as of now.
So rents are unlikely to go lower any time soon.
It is riskier, certainly, to buy rental properties in south bay, that is for
sure. Prices went higher, rates are higher, IRR a lot lower, appreciation
potential a lot lower, and you face incoming com... 阅读全帖 |
|
m********8
发帖数: 7463 | 45 来自主题: SanFrancisco版 - 说说租房？ Rents are really sticky--- or "autoregressive"--- meaning once it went up,
it takes a long time for them to go down.
Normally you would see "incentives" on rents before nominal values go down.
And there is no freaking incentives whatsoever as of now.
So rents are unlikely to go lower any time soon.
It is riskier, certainly, to buy rental properties in south bay, that is for
sure. Prices went higher, rates are higher, IRR a lot lower, appreciation
potential a lot lower, and you face incoming com... 阅读全帖 |
|
l**t
发帖数: 10440 | 46 一句话摘要:传统mail轰炸(几毛钱的邮票而已，比email震撼!)
---------------------
My Friends at Tsinghua:
My name is Kai Zhu, a patent litigation attorney who graduated from Shanghai
Jiao Tong U. in 1993.
I am launching an anti-SCA5 project as below and I urgently need your help,
now:
http://1drv.ms/1m6IkwN
Although this document itself is very much a work in progress, please share
as much as you can, but only within the Asian communities for now - because
I really need help in manpower, please.
If you can do some WordP... 阅读全帖 |
|
z*****a
发帖数: 3809 | 47 The Pro Bowlers who are traded like this are usually old and on the decline.
They also have expensive guaranteed contracts. Freshly drafted rookies
might or might not turn out to be any good, but they would definitely be
cheaper, younger, and less riskier financially for the team since most
rookies don't have guaranteed contracts and you can just cut them if they
don't perform. |
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 48 Pete Carroll may have a lifetime of nightmares for calling that pass play,
and he'll certainly be on the receiving end of a Legion of Boos, but that
was a perfectly good call.
A pass play when 100 million people are certain of a run -- that's a good
idea, especially if a 100 of them are Pats players and coaches.
Lynch's record of runs from the 1 yard line this season: 5 tries, 1 TD. Not
such a sure thing.
A well designed pass play, really well designed.
And jumping a route that is all of five fe... 阅读全帖 |
|
l******8
发帖数: 1691 | 49 it counts the probability of winning, not the size of winning. This result
shows us that the best move to win big is also often a riskier move.
Your basic assumption is wrong. |
|
n***k
发帖数: 2780 | 50 think about this.
#1. he may miss this PAT again, even though the chance is not that high.
#2. in the next OT, orst has to start first, and if it faces 4th down, what
to do? a risky 4th down offense or a even riskier field goal???
they are not idiots as you thought, and they have been playing like this for
many many years ... |
|
