|
g***p
发帖数: 139 | 2 首先我不是大牛，但一直想写个关于option的长文，虽然不能避免一些青蛙上纪念碑，
至少可以让大多青蛙少走弯路，如果如下的文章有错误，欢迎拍砖指正。
option的Implied Volatility（IV），delta，gamma，theta，alpha，vega，rho受股
价的影响，和对option价格的影响一定要知道，这是游戏规则。如果说炒股难度是10，
玩option的难度就会是100。为什么呢，因为它对玩家的TA，FA，timing，心理承受力
，经验是全方位的高要求，因为影响因素多了，一个因素的误判就会带来很大的损失，
胜率总是在MM那边，就象deal or no deal，你翻开的箱子越多，你翻中1million的机
会就越多。当然高风险带来高利益。
玩option最忌讳的是吃全鱼，这是跟玩股票的最大不同。给你一个股票的历史数据，你
会很快算出整段的鱼身，但是给你一系列的option数据和相对应的股票价格的（当然不
包括option价格），专家还是很难算出鱼的全身。如果股票都很难吃到全鱼，option要
吃到基本不可能，因为option价格跟股票价格不是线型关系。反而会 |
|
f******u
发帖数: 250 | 3 (导入数据)
proc import out=aapl
datafile="C:\Users\aapl.xlsx"
dbms=xlsx replace;
sheet="sheet1";
getnames=yes;
run;
proc import out=spy
datafile="C:\Users \spy.xlsx"
dbms=xlsx replace;
sheet="sheet1";
getnames=yes;
run;
(筛选数据)
data aapl;
set aapl(keep=date adj_close);
label adj_close="Aclose";
rename adj_close=Aclose;
run;
data spy;
set spy(keep=date adj_close);
label adj_close="Sclose";
rename adj_close=Sclose;
run;
(整理数据)
proc sort data=spy;by descending date;run;
proc sort data=aapl;by descendin... 阅读全帖 |
|
p******m
发帖数: 224 | 4 option 5个基本 factors: theta, vega, delta,gamma,rho
要去学一学。
当然了学了该亏费还亏费。海海
给个包子吧 |
|
Y****a
发帖数: 796 | 5 股票价格变化仅跟期权价格的一个变量delta有关, 还有vega,theta, rho等，加上这些
变量的二阶变量，搞不清楚会吃大亏。 |
|
s*****o
发帖数: 459 | 6 简单解释一下，其实理论上并不复杂
首先，它基于假设在某一点股票的价格变化是正态分布的，好像个鸭梨的形状，也就是
上涨下跌是对称的，实际当然不是这样
以下Greeks参数描述股票的期权：
delta：期权的变化相应于单位股价变化，这个是最主要的，直接就能观察到
gamma：delta变化的快慢，也就是鸭梨胖瘦，越接近股价变化越快
theta：跟时间相关，时间越久价格越高，并随时间接近衰减
vega: 该股票的volatility，波动越大，以上参数变化越大，另外，这个参数就反映在
ask/bid差别上，像uco，uco一下上穿15%，bid/ask差别大了，你可以设中间值不能保
证买/卖掉
rho： interest rate 变化1%期权的价格变化，长期的期权据说受此影响，可能现在低
利率，可以忽略不计
lambda：期权的leverage， delta×stock price/option price
基本这些就够用了，其它我也没研究，呵呵 |
|
c**t
发帖数: 9197 | 7 Delta Gamma Theta Vega Rho |
|
发帖数: 1 | 8 万分感谢，是通过IV，Gamma，Rho，Theta，Vega，POTM， PITM进行帅选吗？能否提供
一些经验阈值？ |
|
a*********0
发帖数: 268 | 9 转让life science 审稿一篇。Y-27632, a Rho-associated protein kinase
inhibitor, inhibits voltage-dependent K+ channels in rabbit coronary
arterial smooth muscle cells. 需要background 介绍和email，姓名以便推荐。 |
|
d*******d
发帖数: 3382 | 10 对他们来说，什么是high priority? Rho的竞选？ |
|
m********w
发帖数: 69 | 11 A few years before I joined the Aces, I had the following encounter
with Bobby Goldman. In the Cleveland Nationals, I was playing with
Harold Guiver in a pair game. We came to Bobby Goldman's table. It
was the first time I had met him.
Bobby opened two clubs and Harold bid five clubs. My RHO, who I do
not recall, bid six diamonds. My hand was horrible but did include
six solid hearts starting with the ten spot.
In those days, penalties were based on the 1 3 5 7 9 11 plan, not
the 1 3 5 8 11 |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 12 Playing online, against expert opposition. I held
SAK7x HQ Dxx CAQxxxx
both vul. RHO opened a 1st seat 2D, weak two.
Overcalling the minor is often wrong so I tried 2S. LHO gently raised to 3D.
Partner came in with a 4D. So I cooperated with a 4H. Partner signed off with
4S and I don't have further opinions.
LHO led the DA and dummy tabled down:
S QJTx
H K9xxxx
D Kxx
C -
S AK7x |
|
z***y
发帖数: 198 | 13 Kaleidoscope Series Lesson #5 - Part 2 of 3
Squeezes
--------
---------- Isolate your Opponent ---------
In the above sample squeeze, LHO was overloaded
with work, forced to guard both the major suits. RHO
could not help LHO here. Thus, we would say that LHO
is "isolated" in hir responsibility to protect the Heart
and Spade suits. Let us change our sample hand slightly:
Pard
|
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 14 今天, 几乎所有的竞争叫牌的讨论都要涉及到总墩数定律. 为了估算最佳结果,
你需要知道同伴有几张将牌配合. 考虑下面的问题.
LHO---You---RHO---Partner |
|
a***n
发帖数: 287 | 15
Chairman, are you kidding?
"Opp"="Opponent". In this case, should be "RHO" (Right-hand
Opponent),
specifically. |
|
f*o
发帖数: 168 | 16 S x
H AJxxx
D xx
C Axxxx
swiss team game
Vul. None
RHO(dealer) opened with 3S, I did not bid, LHO raised to 4S,
partner doubled, should I bid 5H? I did not do so. It was
the same 4SX on
the other table. We could have gained some pts on this board
Any comment? Now I think my first pass is OK, I should not
pass the 2nd one,
it is so obvious my partner's strength was on the unbid
suit, with 2A, I should
be more constructive.
Partner's hand is like this:
S xx
H KQxx
D AKQxx
C Kx |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 17 * Light response
Textbook dictates that if you have 0-3, you should pass
partner's 1 level opening.
I have no intention to challenge this rule, but in some
cases, light response has to be the right call.
This hand was from a regional flight A pairs barometer
final:
Not vul vs vul, I held QJ32 75 10754 852 and heard partner
open 1st seat 1D. RHO passed. My call.
I think 1S is clear-cut. Vul is favorable; 1S response may
shut out LHO's competition; we have a place to flee to if
things go bad; and |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 18 As I see it, the only legitimate chance is if someone holds singleton or
doubleton DA, or CJ doubleton drops, and they cannot cash 4 S.
So win the A, try a DK, if anyone wins immediately you'll have a safe way to
home (unless they cash 4 more S. If all duck, unblock a C and try a D and
pray.
Ducking the S may have some merit (S 5-2, HKQ with RHO), but will lose more
often.
The key is to unblock C before playing a 2nd D. Otherwise you will have
communication problems.
Opps |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 19 This lead very much worth (cost) $1600 (a GNT final).
You have your usual garbage:
S xx H xxx D xxxx Cxxxx
and hear this uncontested auction:
RHO LHO
1NT(1) 2D(2)
2H 3C
3N 4C
4S 4NT(3)
5C 5H
6C 6H
-
(1): 12-14
(2): transfer
(3): hesitation
Your lead. |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 20
I guess a diamond lead works.
Pd could hardly be club void. coz that means opps have
9 clubs, i.e. LHO has 4 clubs at least. In this case,
he would have passed 5C or 6C most of the time.
It seems that RHO didn't take 4C as Ace asking, otherwise,
he should have passed 4NT. Therefore, 4S was a cuebid and he
took 4NT as Ace asking.
I guess the reason of LHO's hesitation is one Ace missing,
and he was thinking of taking chances that the missing ace was
not the crucial one.
4S cuebid indicated that |
|
c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 21 那个4C是这样的:
pd: SQxx
HAxxx
DAQJ
Cxxx
LHO: RHO:
Sxx x SJTx
HKQT9xx Hx
Dxxxx Dxx
Cx CAKQJxxx
me:
SAKxxx
HJx
DKTxx
Cxx
well, from the 4 hands, you can see that 4C would go down 3 for any
"so so" defense
bidding is totally maniac:
1C 1S 2H! 3C
x p p 3S
4C p p x
p p p
I led SA, pd discouraged, so I switched D,
pd won by DA, returned a trump,
declarer drew three tr |
|
c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 22 the problem is that pd need to hold at least 16 HCP to make this hand
"belong" to your side I think. in that case, he may take some action after
1S. Since your RHO didn't bid, he might be either too weak to bid or
have a heart stack. Three level usually belongs to opps, so if they bid
2S, I'd not compete, since my pd passed that 1S, which suggested that we
don't have enough HCP to compete to 3 level and pd may have sp stack
himself, because we are vul, opps tend to double us when possible.
Somet |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 23 S QT95
H A64
D 543
C QJ2
S AK86
H 8
D KJ876
C A64
RHO open 1H, you double, LHO 2H, raised to 4H.
SA , 5, 2, 4
what's next? |
|
c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 24 SQTxx HAKTx D- CK9xxx
MP, love all.
You are playing 2/1. You partner opens 1C, RHO overcalling 2D,
your call?
there are some options:
double, 3D, 4D, 2H? |
|
c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 25 On the first day of spingold,
I hold SKx H9xx DAK9xx CAxx
I decided to open 1NT, since I had good controls
and a very decent diamond suit.
Everybody passed.
My LHO led a low spade,
dummy:
Sxxx HAKTx D8x C8xxx
I won by SK on the first trick.
Then I ducked a dia, my LHO won by DJ,
Now she began to cash her long spade suit, wow, she had
6 spades. I discarded two clubs and one heart from dummy,
two clubs, one dia, one heart from hand.
My RHO discarded 3 clubs. and on the last spade, he was squeezed! |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 26 After fixing Michael Seamon with a 21 count 3N, none vul, I held another great
hand:
S AQT87x
H A
D Jxxx
C AQ
First seat I opened a 1S, of course, and LHO doubled. Pd passed, and it
suddenly took a dramatic turn when RHO also passed.
I wish I could redouble for business -- obviously cozofu's holding some H
stack out there unless LHO prepared to double and bid H.
LHO led the DA and the dummy, as expected, was not really thrilling:
S 2
H JT98xx
|
|
y****e
发帖数: 71 | 27 That is interesting dream, I never had anything close.
Maybe that suggested we should combine bridge board with other card games like
"red 10", :D
BTW, I played one hand the other day, I am the 4th position to bid, with card
lik1 AKxx x 109xxx KJx, Left hand opp opened 2S, my partner 3C, RHO pass, I
think for a while and bid 3S (opps asked what that means, I explain that it
means spade stoppers, consulting possible 3NT), partner 4H, I sign off at 5C.
The result is 6C, and partner said his 4H is |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 28 Right, this is my second point.
her hand is quite likely 5-2-3-3. you may need a ruff to
set up the spade suit. Thus 6H should have better chance
than 6NT, right?
So now you are the declarer of 6H, and LHO leads diamond 10.
S KJ863
H 75
D KJ5
C A92
S A5
H AKQJ10
D AQ
C 10854
Ha, everything goes exactly as your plan. the dummy, the opening lead...
you win the Ace in hand, and lay down the Ace and King of trump, but
RHO pitch a diamond on the second round of hearts.
How will you approach the play? |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 29 already down if you stick to RHO having 4 spades.
some |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 30 OK some more water.
non vul, IMP,
4S, lead DK. bidding was
LHO CHO RHO YOU
1N 2H(1) - 4S(?)
P
(1) DONT, both majors
(?) good judgement
dummy
Q9854
KQ42
-
K762
you
A32
63
QJT763
A3
How do you plan the play? |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 31 Holding Q842 J652 63 Q42, white on red, hearing this auction:
RHO LHO
1D 1S
3N
What do you lead? |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 32 You bid to 6D uncontested with this hand
AK9x
x
K86
A9xxx
J6xx
KJx
AQT97
K
(bidding was
1C-1D
1S-2H(GF)
3D-3S
4C-4D
4N(RKC)-5D
5H-6C(DQ+CK)
6D)
LHO led HA and continues a H, RHO plays low H, and your J wins (you pitch a S
from dummy). How do you proceed? |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 33 IMP None,
you hold
S -----
H AQJ8
D 1054
C AQ9765
Pd deals and open 1D, RHO makes a 1S overcall, what's your call? |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 34 Imp, 1st hand in long (KO) game. Opponents are good -- they can get into final
of blue ribbon and are a sound partnership -- but you are certainly not afraid
of them, see post 2514 for a reason as they are the victim.
Vul vs not. You hold 9xxxx Kx Axxx xx. Your righty deals and opens a multi 2D,
showing either major or a strong 2N hand. You pass, of course, and the bidding
went:
RHO YOU LHO CHO
2D P 2H (pass or correct) P
P(weak |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 35 Hold Qxx Jx Ax Axxxxx, love all. Long match IMPs. Your Righty deals and opens
1H. You overcall 2C. And it went
RHO YOU LHO CHO
1H 2C 2H 3C
4H all pass
What do you lead? |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 36 Man, your hand evaluation is so... uhh... agressive. Just because RHO opened
doesn't mean your 2 kings are both well placed, and even further out, doesn't
mean that you have have chance to lead to it twice -- or even once to take it.
Just because you have a 6 card suit headed by AKQ does not mean the suit is
solid without losers. And just because you have a 4 card suit doesn't mean the
distribution will be right and that you will have the right timing to
establish the 4th. Kings are not equivale |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 37 One of the only very few lucky hands in a losing effort of a KO.
Hold QT KQ8 97xx Axxx, I'm fourth to speak with both red.
The bidding soon went high:
LHO CHO RHO ME
1H 1S 3H! ?
3H was preemptive. And I have a bidding problem.
My option is
1. Pass, hope pd to reopen w/ extra;
2. x for responsive, hoping pd to have a 2nd minor suit;
3. 3S, honor doubleton sometimes suffices;
4. 3N, with both red, the overcalling is not based on too light values.
I guess with some 13 count, our 3N might be cold |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 38 Vul vs not, imp, hold Q KJxx AQTxx KTx. You open a 1st seat 1D. The bidding
went
YOU LHO CHO RHO
1D 2S P P (long hesitation)
X P 3H* P
?
3H's supposed to be lebensol, showing better than a minimum -- he can't have
much as he already failed to make a negative double. Now do you bid the game? |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 39 Vul vs not. Imp. Hold
AT87 K87 - AKQ532
you are 2nd to speak. Righty opens 2D, multi, usually weak 2 in a major. You
double to show either a strong hand or 13-15 even. And the bidding went:
RHO YOU LHO CHO
2D x P(1)P(2)
2H ?
Lefty's pass shows some interest in playing 2D, so does pd's pass. Now what? |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 40 I met this hand 8 years ago in an IMP match,
Playing 2/1, you hold
S Axx
H xx
D KQx
C AQJxx
Pd deals and opens 1H. When you are looking for the 2C bidding card, RHO,
who never gives you a break, preempts with 3S, What are you going to do? |
|
f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 41 you sit south, holding
S: XX
H: KJ9876XX
D: AXX
C: --
PD open 1c, you 1h, pd 1N, then you leap to 4h. LHO lead HA and continue H,
RHO dropped HQ and discard a C9. Dummy is
S: KJX
H: 10X
D: QXX
C: AQ10XX
how to play? |
|
t*****a
发帖数: 4 | 42 You are brave to bid 6S.
Over 2N, I might choose 3NT or pass depending on the situation.
As for the play, according to the bid, I would play RHO hand as 1-1-6-5.
Win the first trick in hand and play SJ. If LHO does not cover with SQ,
play low in dummy. After three rounds spades, lead low H from dummy to
HK and clear the last trump outside. One H finesse and H ruff will bring
the contract home. |
|
f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 43
九
since
here is the problem. if rho did not follow, then u will lose sq and ca |
|
f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 44 YOU SIT SOUTH, HOLDING
S:KQ7
H:4
D:AKQ9
C:J9753
PD OPEN 1S, RHO 2H, AND THEN GOES:
1S-2H-3H-4H-4S-5H-? |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 45 If I read that correctly, the dealer is your RHO, right?
I would choose not to balance.
The reason is that I DEFINITELY had overcalled 1H right after
the opening bid. |
|
w****b
发帖数: 623 | 46 Playing on BBO, with decend partner and good opposition. I held ATxxxx ATxx x
Tx, love all and I was 3rd to speak. Pd opened 1H, RHO passed.
The question is whether I should bid slowly or fast. I think there are several
reasons to take the slow path: 1. I had the master suit; 2. Even if they found
a save my 2 A's rate to take 2 tricks, and I don't have to worry too much
about double game swing. 3. Facing an average opening hand, this may actually
produce slam. For example, KQx KQxxx xxx Ax, slam |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 47 Red vs White.
holding
S A109
H AQxx
H KQ7
C Axx
you open a strong no-trump. Pd transfer hearts, but RHO come in
with 2S, you 3H, LHO raise 4S, pd double and it's the final contract.
You hate to be on leading but you have to. what will be your choice? |
|
a*******s
发帖数: 295 | 48 No physical evidence has ever been provided to their case, just
rumors. :)
In 70s, there were suspected cheating in auctions:
IMPs red vs white.
one of the brother hold something like:
S Axx
H Axx
D J9xx
C Q10x
RHO opened 1H and raised to 2H by lefty, partner's 3C passed to him,
He passed.
Then another hand, again red vs white:
S AQ10xx
H xx
D Jx
C A10xx
LHO opened 1H and partner overcall 1S, this time he raised to 4S.
Those "experts" at that time said that same 11 POINTS but different
actions. |
|
f*****x
发帖数: 545 | 49
op
It's
understand it and let aloine to use it when play. Just ordered cohen's TO BID
OR NOT TO BID. hope to arm myself with this stuff.
actually it is very interesting that 5c is a good sacrifice, pd holds:
S: --
H: KJTXX
D: AQXXX
C: XXX
LHO HOLDS:
S: KQXXXX
H: AX
D: XX
C: AKJ
RHO HOLDS:
S: JTXX
H: QXXXX
D: JTX
C: Q
They can win 4 tricks only. |
|
c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 50 It's always a contradiction in balancing style. Some like sound overcalls
and aggressive balancing, others like aggressive overcalls and don't
like balancing much.
When you hold something like:
SAxxx Hxxx DAxx CKxx,
even the most crazy player wouldn't double RHO's 1S opening.
However, when the bidding goes like this way:
1S p 2S p
p ?
It's quite a sound way to reopen the bidding since partner
is rated to be short in S and has some value. What would you
bid now?
double? Isn't that a penalty doub |
|
