m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 1 Wall Street: The First Hindenburg Omen Confirmed
The feared Hindenburg Omen was Thursday confirmed in the US stock market as
the number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69, according to The
Wall Street Journal‘s interactive Market Data Center.
“The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective,
not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
The first omen was spotted on August 12th: “The indicator may suggest a
savage equity downturn is imminent,”... 阅读全帖 |
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b**t
发帖数: 656 | 2 加抄一段:
The Omen finally got triggered today, first, a quick refresher of what the
Omen is:
It is a set of conditions, and rules that when all are met, greatly
increases the odds of a large sell-off, or crash of the markets. In fact no
crashes in the last 22 years have happened, that did not first have a
confirmed signal of a Hindenburg Omen. Just because all the conditions have
been might, and it becomes a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not guarantee a
crash, only greatly increases the chances of... 阅读全帖 |
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t******2
发帖数: 2265 | 3 不知道为什么这周末,Hindenburg Omen的贴子到处都是,我是N年前研究过Hindenburg
Omen的, 对此,我要提醒一下各位几句.
1,Hindenburg Omen和我的小时信号一样,不是每个波都有信号,有信号时,有时提前,有
时滞后,而且是长期信号,所以可靠性因人而异.
2,Hindenburg Omen和我的小时信号一样,需要有confirm信号才有效. 周四出的那个只
是预警信号,需要在之后的36天内出confirm信号才有效,所以不要被忽悠.
关于我的长期趋势判断,上次那个system error那件事搞出了很大卖压,倒置了这一段时
间的走势比较弱,且朝着做头发展,上周四那天很可能是一个confirming day,确认了从2009年3月以来的熊反弹的结束.
之所以说可能,是因为那个system error给搞的,如果正常状况,应该是这样的,
1,出长期反转信号confirming day那波的高,应该是整个牛势的最高的那一波,或之后稍低一点的一个价位那波.(但这次差的比较多)
2,今后几周应该还有一个反复,并出现VOLUME减少的现象,就如这波从7月初上来一 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 4 Be very careful with the stock market in the next couple months.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hindenburg-omen-here
Easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the
bullishly inclined) is the dreaded Hindenburg Omen. Those who know what it
is, tend to have an atavistic reaction to its mere mention. Those who do not
,
can catch up on its implications courtesy of Wikipedia, but in a nutshell:
"The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a
forthcoming |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 5 Wall Street: The First Hindenburg Omen Confirmed
The feared Hindenburg Omen was Thursday confirmed in the US stock market as
the number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69, according to The
Wall Street Journal‘s interactive Market Data Center.
“The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective,
not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
The first omen was spotted on August 12th: “The indicator may suggest a
savage equity downturn is imminent,” |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 6 From wiki:
From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the
downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place
within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and
the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does
not have a 100% success rate, every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded
by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%)
have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% |
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m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 7 Wall Street: The First Hindenburg Omen Confirmed
The feared Hindenburg Omen was Thursday confirmed in the US stock market as
the number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69, according to The
Wall Street Journal‘s interactive Market Data Center.
“The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective,
not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
The first omen was spotted on August 12th: “The indicator may suggest a
savage equity downturn is imminent,” |
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m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 8 抄来一段.不怕一万
Hindenburg Omen, 据说这是market要crash的前兆. 今天触发了. 下面的图是2007 and
2008出现Hindenburg Omen时的情况: |
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r*****t
发帖数: 7278 | 9 我的英文不好，看不懂
the probability of a move greater than 5%
to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%
这是说77%的可能是往上走吗？（比向下多5%？是什么东东？） |
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K********g
发帖数: 9389 | 10 所谓的Hindenburg，全是马后炮。根本就没有任何人提前分析出来，况且那些分析的依
据全扯淡
现在就是华尔街来制造混乱而已。
as
, |
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n**2
发帖数: 630 | 11 Hindenburg Omen需要一些要素的，不是凭空的，的确是根据历史总结出来的。但有时
也不灵，只不过人们总会记住它灵的时候。
我对上文也持保留态度。其实股市本质就是混乱的集合。 |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 13 我觉得Hindenburg Omen可以概况为一句话
人心散了，队伍就不好带了
人心散了: The 52week high and 52 week low divergence.
队伍就不好带:Negative $NYMO: Kind of like money outflow.
BTW: This is the real-time chart for the Omen
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20489603975
//我的工具箱里面有用的links还是不少的，hehe |
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B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 15 Since Fed started the printing press, Hindenburg Omen had stopped working.
It makes me wonder what is the motive of the media to mention it now.
hehe |
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t******2
发帖数: 2265 | 17 Last Weekend I mentioned a Hindenburg Omen Signal occurred on August 12th.
This week we almost got two more Signals on Thursday and Friday however
technically based on the rules and numbers from the Wall Street Journal none
occurred by the smallest of margins |
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x*******1
发帖数: 28835 | 18 发信人: today222 (道.道.道), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: 关于Hindenburg Omen和我的长期趋势信号
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Aug 15 22:16:44 2010, 美东)
不知道为什么这周末,Hindenburg Omen的贴子到处都是,我是N年前研究过Hindenburg
Omen的, 对此,我要提醒一下各位几句.
1,Hindenburg Omen和我的小时信号一样,不是每个波都有信号,有信号时,有时提前,有
时滞后,而且是长期信号,所以可靠性因人而异.
2,Hindenburg Omen和我的小时信号一样,需要有confirm信号才有效. 周四出的那个只
是预警信号,需要在之后的36天内出confirm信号才有效,所以不要被忽悠.
关于我的长期趋势判断,上次那个system error那件事搞出了很大卖压,倒置了这一段时
间的走势比较弱,且朝着做头发展,上周四那天很可能是一个confirming day,确认了从
2009年3月以来的熊反弹的结束.
之所以说可能,是因为那个system error给搞的,如果正 |
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S*******e
发帖数: 2319 | 19 尼玛，让我想起那个Hindenburg什么的。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 20 徐贲：他们以为他们是自由的
小人物是用父母和子女的关系来理解希特勒与自己的关系的。对于小人物来说，摧毁伟
大领袖就像摧毁自己的父母一样不可思议，完全在他们的理解力所能企达的常识之外。
这是因为，伟大领袖“这个人物代表了我们自己的最好自我；那是我们自己想成为的样
子，而且通过认同作用，我们自己就成了那个样子。
我们需要有人像迈耶那样为我们写一本记录普通人常识和小人物自我意识变化的微型社
会学历史。
米尔顿·迈耶的《他们以为他们是自由的》是一本写作于1950年代，于1966年再版的老
书，作者在书里记录了他于二战后与10位德国纳粹“小人物”的交谈和交往。读中译本
，对书中小人物的自我意识有一种似曾相识的感觉，他们以为自己是自由的，便是这种
自我意识的一部分。
这10位德国人之所以是“小人物”，不仅因为他们都很平凡，地位低下，见识不高，而
且更因为他们时时都觉得自己是小人物，永远在用小人物的眼光打量他们的生活世界。
对身边周围发生的事情，他们满足于小人物的理解，如果他们有所期待，那也是安分守
己，与小人物身份相符的期待。他们是凭着小人物“常识”生活的人——什么安全，什
么危险、什么对自己有好... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 21 土共喜欢拿这个历史来颠倒是非，混淆视听，说什么“民主导致独裁”等等类似的话，
不一而足。而英文记载的很清楚：
德国一战后被动接受民主，总统兴登堡（Hindenburg）被规定赋予了各种紧急权力，以
便在可能的危机之中来捍卫德国民主，结果兴登堡利用这些特权取消了民主规范，然后
与纳粹结盟，用专制统治取代议会政府。由此可以非常清楚地看出，这个民主转化成专
制/独裁的过程是很特殊的，实施民主在技术细节上出现了漏洞错误，而不是民主制度
自身的问题。而且这是一个很容易解决的技术问题，即规定不给总统这个权力，就堵住
了这个漏洞。 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 22 By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com
on February 1, 2011
President Obama better hope that the crowds clamoring for an overthrow of
the Mubarak regime really do achieve a functioning liberal democracy rather
than an Iranian-style theocracy. His reelection hopes could be doomed if
Iran takes over.
Just as Nixon helped to discredit Harry Truman and defeat Democratic
presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson in 1952 by trumpeting the question, "
Who lost China?," Obama may well have to explain how and... 阅读全帖 |
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f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 23 这二十五点主张是纳粹上台前的要求。当然没有全部实现。
和苏联不同，纳粹并没有一个贯彻始终的经济和政治主张。然而他还是一样的偏向于政
府干预。在经济学的定义上，不是全盘公有化才叫左派，政府动辄干预经济，干预的后
果就是需要更多干预，这也是左派。
这是奥地利经济学家米塞斯讲纳粹对经济的控制。
The second pattern [of socialism] (we may call it the Hindenburg or German
pattern) nominally and seemingly preserves private ownership of the means of
production, and keeps the appearance of ordinary markets, prices, wages,
and interest rates. These are, however, no longer entrepreneurs, but only
shop managers (Betriebsführer in the terminology of the ... 阅读全帖 |
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t******2
发帖数: 2265 | 24 not confirm yet, but his methodology is quite similar with mine on weekly
basis.
trace back to 1960's, his signal not that accurate even after confirming,
but good enough.
the other drawback is he have no buy signal at all. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 25 another one on last Friday?
not confirmed yet
But this signal keeps blinking, like a couple years ago
not
of |
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S***l
发帖数: 383 | 26 this upcoming crash is the most highly advertized crash as far as I can
remember.
guess we are at the bottom now.
not
of |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 27 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: NeverLearn (24K Bear - Got Silver?), 信区: Stock
标 题: Bill Gross 'front-ran' Fed's QE (zz)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 16 00:26:36 2010, 美东)
Who needs Hindenburg Omen any more now that you can just follow Bill's
insider track ... uh I mean, Bill's incredible 'insight'?
=====================================================================
(ZZ from ZeroHedge)
As we pointed out last month, in June and July Pimco raised its allocation
to government bonds to the highest ever, or |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 28 标准：
1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number
of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE
issues traded that day.
2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.
772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This
condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day. |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 30 不知道，我也是头一次听说。但是wiki上找的那几个历史数据还挺吓人的，不是吗？ |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 33 就是说一旦有个确立的HO, 有77%的概率市场会发生一个大于5%的下跌。中文也够绕嘴
的。。。 |
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r*****t
发帖数: 7278 | 34 哦，谢谢
看来历史真的和我感觉相符啊。
我觉得还会大瀑布的真的是历史上有过很多次啊。
看来买put还不晚 |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 35 “确认”指的好象是说一个月时间里出现两个以上这种TA combination. 今天好象是第
一个，而昨天只差一点点。 |
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MO
发帖数: 592 | 38 香港8月15日电／美国经济数据差强人意，美股持续弱势，道琼斯工业平均指数全周累
跌3.3%。但更令投资者担心的，相信是预示股市大跌市的技术指标“兴登堡凶兆”(
Hindenburg Omen，又称“兴登堡警讯”)再次出现。这指标的创造者更预测，股市将于
9月出现大跌市。 www.6park.com
市场担心美国经济放缓，投资者纷纷沽货，美股经历6周以来最差的一周。道指全
周累跌3.29%，收报10,303点；标普500指数累跌 3.78%，收报1,079点；纳斯达克指数
表现更差，大跌5.02%，收报2,173点。股市大幅波动，投资者都希望依靠一些技术指标
，了解后市走向。 www.6park.com
新高新低股份 数目齐超标 www.6park.com
“兴登堡凶兆”是股市技术分析上，用作预测走势转弱或暴跌的重要方法之一，由
失明数学家米耶卡于1995年创造，主要追踪纽约证券交易所上市股票，由多项标准组成
，其中一项重要判定标准是创52周新高或新低的股票数目。 www.6park.com
米耶卡指出，美股上周四有92只股份创52周新高，占全部上市股份的2.9%，另有81
只股份创5 |
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P*B
发帖数: 2876 | 39 zt
兴登堡凶兆再现 股市是否会崩溃？
来源: 华尔街日报 于 10-08-17 17:00:01 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [
给我悄悄话]
忘掉13号黑色星期五吧。华尔街上的很多人开始窃窃私语一个更加恐怖的现象──
“兴登堡凶兆”(Hindenburg Omen)。
“兴登堡凶兆”以1937年在新泽西州雷克霍斯特(Lakehurst)坠毁的著名德国飞艇命名
，这个技术指标不仅可以预测熊市的到来，还可以预测股市的崩溃。提出兴登堡凶兆之
说的盲人数学家米耶卡(Jim Miekka)说，眼下该指标显示，9月份将发生股市崩溃。
http://finance.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=wsj&MsgID=2970 |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 43 Hindenburg Omen was first spotted on Aug 12 and confirmed once on Aug 19.
It happened 7 times before 2008 crash though. |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 46 Not a silver bullet, but works
better than Head & Shoulder,balabala
It reflect some sorts of market structure changes.
That's my understanding. |
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x*******1
发帖数: 28835 | 47 mlgb,现在人都从明了。 看看人散户怎么讲的。
“With what we have now, I think it’s possible we could get a 20% decline
going into the fall,” Miekka said. “But I would expect some type of
selloff and be buying at a lower price.”
MM就是忍者不卖。tnnd的。 虽然不买，但是也不卖，人不做赔本的事阿。 没有
selloff就没panic. 没panic,大家都没得底来。 |
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q**y
发帖数: 29 | 48 80后90后有几个懂的？
哈哈哈
祖国的小花朵 |
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q**y
发帖数: 29 | 49 80后90后有几个懂的？
哈哈哈
祖国的小花朵 |
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s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 50 从长期看，20%算个头啊。我就指望油啊米啊（没钱炒期货）化肥啥的卖个地板价。然
后我就抱着10年不看了。 |
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