M*****y
发帖数: 666 | 1 From the company web site:
October 26, 2011
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. Announces Fiscal 2011 Fourth Quarter
and Full Year Reporting Date, Conference Call and Live Webcast
WATERBURY, Vt.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (GMCR
) (NASDAQ: GMCR), a leader in specialty coffee and coffee makers, today
announced that the Company plans to announce financial results for its
fiscal 2011 fourth quarter and full year in a press release to be issued
following the close of the... 阅读全帖 |
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s***y
发帖数: 357 | 2 Chairman is fired
By Courtney Dentch
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Green Mountain Coffee removes Chairman
Robert Siller, board member William Davis, effective
immediately, citing sale of margin call-related GMCR shrs. GMCR
down 2.6% post-mkt.
• Director Michael Mardy named interim chairman, Hinda Miller to head
governance committee
• Board says Siller’s, Davis’s stock sale “inconsistent” with
internal trading policies; margin-call sale of 5.548m shrs related to margin
loans, secured by G... 阅读全帖 |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 3 【 以下文字转载自 Chinook 俱乐部 】
发信人: wavelets02 (消失), 信区: Chinook
标 题: Re: sina should be ok
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Apr 1 15:56:30 2012, 美东)
by the way GMCR update: the CEO selling made the 10%+ bounce finished.
And it seems still an OK stock to me, due to the overall kcup trend.
发信人: wavelets02 (消失), 信区: Chinook
标 题: 好吧，GMCR快速总结一下
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 12 17:35:32 2012, 美东)
这个飞刀我周末看的很高兴，有点屁股决定脑袋，也同时主要被一些仍然保持的增长数
字所吸引。
。这个sbux的deal短中期实质影响不大，但人心散了，很多可能的潜在负面影响大家在
猜测，我仍然认为现在的股价变动是overreaction。这个就不细说了。
。s... 阅读全帖 |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 4 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
waitfortaxi (土人) 于 (Wed Nov 9 17:27:48 2011, 美东) 提到:
有short position的不要急着cover啊
盘后高点51加了点short position.
lol
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
debt1234 (青蛙酋长) 于 (Wed Nov 9 17:28:28 2011, 美东) 提到:
market close前你都没有short么？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
ShortCut (总想偷懒) 于 (Wed Nov 9 17:31:08 2011, 美东) 提到:
太猛了。够胆！
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
waitfortaxi (土人) 于 (Wed Nov 9 17:31:58 2011, 美东) 提到:
呵呵，我的盘前的Short Po... 阅读全帖 |
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c********r
发帖数: 128 | 5 That is typical frog perception. It is TOTALLY wrong to think that way for a
stock.
A stock is a piece of coffee business. That business has no moat. Other
companies will emulate GMCR's business model. GMCR can not do anything about
it. Also the coffee market is a saturated market with very little upside(
UNLESS inflation comes to play). Some one's gain will be another people's
loss.
In meanwhile, GMCR's PE is too high at 78 comparing to its peers(SBUX is
only 28, PEET at 38). Crashing 50% more ... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 6 "Einhorn then moved onto criticizing the company: Poor transparency. Doesn’
t even report lbs shipped, k-cup units, or precise Keurig brewers units.
GMCR has cut their amount disclosure over time, which is what companies
usually do when metrics are deteriorating."
Einhorn discusses in 2008 GMCR published Total Pounds shipped, as well as
pounds shipped per channel. He indicates that in 3Q11 this ceased to be
reported.
He claims in 2008 units were rounded to the nearest thousand, and now 3Q11,
uni... 阅读全帖 |
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d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 7 这是David Einhorn在他去年的presentation里面讲的，而不是GMCR自己说的$9一股，
但是GMCR后来又发更多股票，所以不知道净收入应该多少一股。并且由于GMSR的patent
过期，今后可能只是生产企业，而不是技术企业，PE倍数就不应该很高。
如果是$3.5一股，即使是10x的倍数，股票应该35，可惜估计GMCR增发很多，并且过去
几年现金流很差，真不知道它真正的earning能多少一股。如果是减半$1.75一股，10X
的倍数，就是股票每股$17.5 |
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T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 8 Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): FQ3 EPS of $0.52 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $869M (+21% Y/Y) misses by $4M. Lowers FY13 EPS estimate to $2.55
-$2.60. Earnings CC scheduled for 5:00 PM EST.
More on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): Says sales growth trajectory
will moderate downward from its "hyper-growth" phase. Single-serve pack
sales up 153% Y/Y to $638M, with a 28% percentage point gain in sales volume
. Gross margin fell to 34.9%, from 36.8% a year ago. For FY12, sees net
sales o... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********6
发帖数: 544 | 9 GMCR- partially owned by Coco-cola
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (GMCR) -NasdaqGS Follow
80.88 Up 0.74(0.92%) 4:00PM EST|After Hours : 112.75 Up 31.87 (39.40%) 5:
40PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price
SBUX PUT
GMCR CALL
(they are opposite) |
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S**********r
发帖数: 553 | 10 我玩过GMCR,它$36暴跌到$27时我接了。 结果它还继续跌，我就知道是群众恐慌了，$
30时出了。
我比较看好，毕竟它的产品很棒，很令人上瘾。 有些人，特别比较有钱的prefer
Tully(GMCR) over Starbucks. 它推出的家用咖啡机加咖啡也满好，我估计可以走国际
路。 现在我不敢买，因为怕大盘回条。
好了，发包子给我吧。 |
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g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 11 LULU: in my 10 years of looking at retailers, this is the most ridiculously
priced company. They are obviously firing on all cylinders, but it is
laughable how anyone can capitalize current margins and sales productivity (
just read the latest quarterly call and see how much one-off there is in the
gross margin line). i am virtually certain this will be a $30 stock some
time in the next 3 years. The trick is obviously when and whether it could
visit $150 first. A small short position seems appro... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 12 不太好搞，跟2002年的tyco international scandal有点类似，但有不同
当年tyco 的CEO，穷人家的孩子做了CPA，然后当了CEO，利用财务专长，搞了兼并狂潮，
成了各大杂志的封面，后来遇上电子业低潮，加上高债务，不得不mark down,
整个事件也不算scandal, 但是有人搞他，查出了他个人从公司无息高额借款等，进了
大牢
GMCR 也是走的高兼并的路，最近一期10Q，销售比去年同期增加了1 倍，利润增加了1.
5倍，同期资产也大幅增加>2倍，整体趋势是ROA在降低，但GMCR注意资产配置，配发了
不少新股，还了一些债务，没啥账务风险，而且解决了兼并的资金源(但同时也导致了
ROE的降低)
行业是日用易耗消费品行业，不像电子业会出现周期性萧条，而不得不做goodwill,
intangible impairment test。 现在年销售也才$2.3B,用高兼并的方法还有空间，背
后又有美林备书
去年有说做假账，但不了了之，(个人没找到以前资料), 2012年K-CUP专利到期，可关
注MM反应 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 13 It is bullish and supposed to go up more
GMCR, 20111027, 65.4400, 4.2765, 6.5
Way too early and too low a price to think of
selling short. Look for better candidates
somewhere else. Odds still favor GMCR bulls. |
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r****c
发帖数: 2585 | 14 早上再选short tna or gmcr,结果选了gmcr
从51.08到52.88只只是打平
要short tna都发达了 |
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l********g
发帖数: 5070 | 15 我没钱抄BIDU的底了，COVER了GMCR去抄百度，真奶奶的运气好。不过我今天早上盘前4
%的时候没COVER，去COVER FIO了，后来想撞死
土神，GMCR绿了，还烧不？？ |
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w********2
发帖数: 16371 | 16 we are discussing very hard on gmcr in qq.
its patent gonna expire on september and sbux push out similar kcup system
to compete gmcr
some people consider this is like rimm when face apple announcing iphone..
(but when I see the chart of rimm, it rise after iphone announcement... hoho) |
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n**x
发帖数: 606 | 17 难道你们没有搞清楚吗? SBUX和GMCR从来都是一唱一和,今年MM这手法简直跟去年是如
出一辙啊，一坏消息加一好玩死小散。下周GMCR就要冲上70了。 |
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l*****f
发帖数: 2198 | 18 do you mean institutions are still dumping GMCR today? I looked at the
volume, almost 60% of the outstanding shares were traded today. Institution
ownership is 81%. Does that mean most MM were wiped out this time that they'
re forced to cut meat on GMCR? |
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o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 19 certainly, most of MM were out due to several bad MM's action.
the big guy bought the PUT and hedge their position, and they lose nothing.
30-35 will be the short term easy target.
However, GMCR will go down for sure in the long run.
50 will be the sky for at least this year.
once SBUX release its sing-cup, the GMCR will go under 10.
Institution
they' |
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l*****f
发帖数: 2198 | 20 MCP的short float是25%左右，GMCR是18%，基本上可以确定有机构在做空。
根据之前恶庄们的表现，他们的控盘能力都十分强大（参见GMCR一个月前股价腰斩），
在它们COVER之前，股价是上不去的。
所以我觉得短期内这两只股票不能碰，等到放量之后再入也不迟。 |
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d**********r
发帖数: 24123 | 21 MB 一大早入的GMCR 和 TSLA 的Call
没想到 TSLA 亏匪了，GMCR 到赚了2倍。 |
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j******e
发帖数: 526 | 22 四个股票仓位比例 1:1:1:4
最后KORS季报很强，可惜股价没涨多少 小赚
GMCR和SCTY 小亏
tsla大赚
这次er一共买了
bbry, amd, zgna(几百股小赌一下), linkedin, SODA, SOHU
KORS, SCTY, KORS 和GMCR
除掉tsla，整体小亏吧，bbry和amd亏的最多，今年主要利润都靠tsla了，
60进的，80,110,1350分别加了几次仓，
scty是最失误的操作，这股下了40以后一直很弱，但是IPO日子对我很特别，感情用事
加了一次仓，现在小亏。。。。 打算后面找机会分批出掉 |
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j******e
发帖数: 526 | 23 四个股票仓位比例 1:1:1:4
最后KORS季报很强，可惜股价没涨多少 小赚
GMCR和SCTY 小亏
tsla大赚
这次er一共买了
bbry, amd, zgna(几百股小赌一下), linkedin, SODA, SOHU
KORS, SCTY, KORS 和GMCR
除掉tsla，整体小亏吧，bbry和amd亏的最多，今年主要利润都靠tsla了，
60进的，80,110,1350分别加了几次仓，
scty是最失误的操作，这股下了40以后一直很弱，但是IPO日子对我很特别，感情用事
加了一次仓，现在小亏。。。。 打算后面找机会分批出掉 |
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s**********e
发帖数: 268 | 24 青蛙我曾经搞过去年FB进SP500，当时FB自己增发了股票卖给各个基金，也曾骂过FB无
良。今天的GMCR同样也是进SP500，也没听说增发，这么多index fund需要的股票哪里
来的？为什么没有把GMCR拉起来？真心弱问求指教！ |
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N*****d
发帖数: 9872 | 25 可口可乐公司是最大的庄，卖可乐赚钱不如pump GMCR来得快
KO半年就从GMCR上赚了超过1B的钱，卖1年可乐才赚8B |
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w******e
发帖数: 1038 | 26 SBUX 不用说了，否则也不会再赌GMCR。
GMCR 每次都beat，连这次也beat，就是当时70 put 是call volume 的 两倍，这3个月
institutional sell 也是 buy 的两倍，周线上有背离还没调整到位，可是总总odds在
赌时是被忽略了。
严重告诫，没有赌运的不要赌，或者至少所有条件都满足才可以。 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 27 50 WB 求 GMCR closest competitor (PEET, SBUX 不算，有门面店的，FARM 不算)
最好生意类型和mkt cap 类同
100 WB 求能FA 找出GMCR fraud的地方 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 28 "Cramer said. “Over that period of time these mistakes led Green Mountain
to overstate its earnings per share by 3 cents.” "
3分钱， 3 分钱啊, 童鞋
问题是为什么SEC 会找到3分钱的GMCR？ aggressive rev recognition在上市公司很正
常啊，是不是shorty 配合得很好的一个阴毛
没有follow 过GMCR， 有人么？ |
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j******j
发帖数: 55 | 29 NEW ORLEANS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Former Attorney General of Louisiana, Charles
C. Foti, Esq. and the law firm of Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC (“KSF”) announce
the commencement of an investigation into Green Mountain Roasters Inc. ("
Green Mountain" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: GMCR - News) to determine whether
it has violated federal securities laws by issuing false and misleading
statements to its shareholders.
On September 28, 2010, Reuters reported that Green Mountain was the subject
of an investigation |
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S**********r
发帖数: 553 | 30 谢谢提醒! 当年GMCR从38一路跌到28,俺28捞了点30卖了买了件衣服和护肤品.
明天再捞点看看. |
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x****t
发帖数: 67 | 31 short 或者put GMCR AMRN CIGX 如何。
会不会裤衩都没了，都是牛股啊。 |
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v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 33 赞可乐美女。青蛙胡说几句：
GMCR是基金重仓股，最近几个季度大基金都在积极买入。
lulu最近由于split的消息已经过于extend了。
soda从技术形态上说快要大调整。
crox的增长率是多少？从真正的收入上来说还是一个one trick pony吧？ |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 34 GMCR,LULU are good stuff, but it may be too late for the game.
Not sure SODA,CROX |
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p*****l
发帖数: 638 | 35 经济回暖 这种consumer product获益是最快的。可能这也是为什么热钱愿意投资在这
上面。在大势不回转的情况下，风险相对比较小。长期来说，像GMCR这样的公司能否跑
赢大盘还得拭目以待。 |
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v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 36 我日，GMCR怎么可能强到这种地步，连beat带raise的。 |
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w*********i
发帖数: 3092 | 39 sina 108 cover
GMCR free run.
lol |
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w*********i
发帖数: 3092 | 42 GMCR空头的第二次集结号
应该会再砸下去的
lol |
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t******e
发帖数: 78 | 44 GMCR 主力护盘非常明显，月内恐怕难下100. |
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t******e
发帖数: 78 | 46 老兄啊，咱心脏不强大，昨天卖了30个GMCR PUT, 只有10个了。KICKING MY ASS HARD.
还是你淡定。 |
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w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 47 hoho. I test it as a stock picking for long on GMCR in chinook club. |
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t******e
发帖数: 78 | 48 HOBO 兄
你不是在说GMCR 吧。 你说的别的我信，这个难 |
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w*********i
发帖数: 3092 | 49 GMCR最后的疯狂
今天的高点，也许在盘尾，是最好的点了
lol |
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a*****n
发帖数: 2835 | 50 下面还有多大空间？这两个看着太肥了，但是风险好像很大，上次在GMCR上吃过大亏 |
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