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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 2 Friends and Family Sale, starting today 11/01/11 to 11/05/11, 20% off
everything, including the Naked palette.
Code FFHOLIDAY11
The sale section is included in the holiday sale! Free shipping over $50.
Link:
http://www.urbandecay.com/on/demandware.store/Sites-UrbanDecay- decay&utm_campaign=phone extensions - urban decay branded
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M*****t
发帖数: 40 | 3 We did inspection today. Two expensive issues
(1) Roof needs to be replaced within 3-5 years [currently it is 16 years old
.]
(2) Siding need to be replaced ASAP ----[major issue]
All the others are cheaper ones.
What can I do? Especially for siding, it is wood-decay fungal rot and my
inspector recommends to replace it with hard-wood right away. My inspector said It is L-P Innerseal Siding composite, which had a class action 7, 8 years. That materials were bad.
Very dissapointed....What should |
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d*******2
发帖数: 397 | 4 看中的房子查出三处wood decay fungus. 位置在(1) roof deck left rear corner
of the garage (2) roof deck east face of rear bay window 这两处是从attic看
到的 (3) roof deck south east corner of home
请问这种问题严重吗？ 一般怎么修呀？ 谢谢！ |
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t*******n
发帖数: 4445 | 5 Go & see a dentist.
Unless you have an x-ray machine at home, there is no way to tell whether it
's really a "small decay" or not. |
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S******0
发帖数: 1183 | 6 连我在内家长版来了好些新人，天天那么多更新，考古不过来了呀。
要不，俺也包子答谢潮水一个？
发信人: tidewater (弦影·著名走音旱鸭嗓), 信区: Parenting
又跟第一个 decay 点的时间吻合。。。 |
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S******0
发帖数: 1183 | 7 连我在内家长版来了好些新人，天天那么多更新，考古不过来了呀。
要不，俺也包子答谢潮水一个？
发信人: tidewater (弦影·著名走音旱鸭嗓), 信区: Parenting
又跟第一个 decay 点的时间吻合。。。 |
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u*****a
发帖数: 6276 | 8 那些知道前天（2015年6月25日）是个重要日子的家长，其孩子已经通过了第二个decay
点。
祝贺你们！ |
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u*****a
发帖数: 6276 | 9 过不过 decay 点，仅和孩子年龄有关；与智力或成绩水平无关。 |
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h**w
发帖数: 4510 | 10 当然有关，要多拖孩子后腿，别跑太快，这样到了 decay 点就不用担心落差太大了。 |
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u*****a
发帖数: 6276 | 11 潮水已经自己 decay 了。和三年级学生无异。连个 0% 到 100% 之间的数都算不出来。 |
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j******8
发帖数: 66 | 12 urban decay naked 3，naked2和naked1 大量求收购价54*0.85
有货的联系我qq 1712772628 |
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L****a
发帖数: 572 | 13 这个图说明 3X long 的 decay 没有想象的那么快，
另外 如果指数一直涨的话，3X 涨幅将大于指数涨幅
3 倍。 |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 14 这个不是time decay造成的。用3X margin模拟也是一样。 |
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L****a
发帖数: 572 | 15 主要原因是 3X ETF 是保证 daily return 3X, 所以
如果指数一直涨，则 return 会大于 3 X （N 天的 return）.
但是如果指数跌跌涨涨，则会有 time decay.
我的直觉是 Average down 对 3X ETF 可能更有效。 |
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r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 16 同时short fas/faz想吃decay赚钱也不是天上馅饼的生财之道
比如去年3月开始同时short fas/faz, 各short 10k的话，现在faz从1000跌到10多刀，
算是赚了1万，但 fas从5刀涨到24刀，净亏数万。。。 |
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q**********e
发帖数: 270 | 18 两个例外：
1. ＜5%的ID，其帐户随时间轴延伸而增长，，100个里面不超过5个。
2. 某些帐户其来源于别处的收入（工资，生意等）的成长速度大于股票帐
号decay的速度，可以不停的补钱，这种情况，帐号不会清零 |
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z****g
发帖数: 4616 | 19 QQQQ２００７年最高时是５５，现在是５０左右，而QLD２００７年最好时是１２０，
现在只有６７，这个DECAY也有点太大了。 |
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B*S
发帖数: 1328 | 20 I think only the leveraged ones decay, it's because of the design of the
derivative, otherwise it should be close to zero...
So going short is a better choice. Is it not? |
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f*********0
发帖数: 861 | 21 现在大盘这个点位,FAS应该在24左右,很好奇地问,这些DECAY的钱都到哪去了,被散户赚
走了, 还是被建这个基金的人一点点地侵吞了? |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 22 天下没有免费的午餐
这些decay是你买FAS必须付出的，要不然怎么保证 1）超过1的leverage 2） 保证
最大损失是100% |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 23 主要原因不是所谓的time decay.
是杠杆所至。 |
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C*G
发帖数: 7495 | 24 ung/unl/gaz/nags都有decay，NG历史低位，中长投资参考选择。
hiahia |
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G*******m
发帖数: 16326 | 26 建议，要吃organic的Time Decay。 |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 27 赞分析
一般的delta hedge 需要不停的reblance, 估计一般股友没办法做到的.
sillycat 这招确实应该不错的. 说到根本, 吃time decay 的收益包括interest 和
short volatility 两个, 如果能一直握到oe 同时股价变化不大的话基本上两个都能吃
到. |
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g****u
发帖数: 695 | 28 难为你写了这么多字。可惜从头就错了。
FAZ 这种东西压根也没有 time decay 的问题。Nx ETF overtime 不能
跟上指数的原因是它们 daily settlement reset 的机制。这种机制在市场
单调运动的时候实际上是 work for you 而不是 against you 的。 |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 29 股大帅要不再详细解释一下"daily settlement reset" 和 time decay for "FAZ" 这
种东西？ |
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j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 30 Because the market tends to go up over time, so the positive 3x ETF usually
won't go to zero even there is "time decay". But it will suffer very badly
during bear market, but still it can recover during bull market. During bull
market, positive 3x etf out performs market by a huge margin. |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 31 I understand the daily settlement. The 3X ETF fund management has to do the
rebalancing to make sure the etf will have a promised 3X performance on a
daily basis compared to the underlines.
I guess my real questions is about "How does the 3X ETF get the 3X leverage
without paying the time value"?
Or in other words, it looks to good to be true that you can buy 3X etf get
3X up side profit room when the down side risk is still -100% compared to
buying the 1X etf. So there must be something the ... 阅读全帖 |
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u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 32 解释得有道理,见教了.
看来这些etf也一样要吃"类似于"margin call" 的亏啊(输多了翻不回来), 用margin来
获取leverage 在波动大时吃的亏不比time decay的亏少啊. |
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j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 33 类似的simulation我早就做过了。我用dji的数据从1928年模拟到现在。结果是dji的hypothetical 3x etf只是略微under perform dji本身。这是在经历过大萧条那样小屁孩们连想都想象不到的大熊市。如果去掉大萧条，dji三倍etf大大outperform dji本身。
其实即使股价上下波动，最后回到原点，那也同样是三倍反向etf比正向的decay大。原因很简单，股价跌了10%，需要涨11%多一点才能回到原点。
三倍正向etf的特点就是熊市的时候跌的非常快，牛市的时候涨的非常快。但是总体上基本是上涨的，甚至可以outperform市场。只是熊市的drawdown极其巨大。
FAS |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 34 我什么时候说我short了？我一直强调这是纯理论分析，看看FAS到底有没有decay，具
体怎么操作就是另外一回事了。
现在看来，从98年到07年，financial sector APY 6.5%的情况下，3x ETF 收益在
after fee 之后是负的，这并不代表我要short，我从一开始就是讨论做time neutral
bearish put spread。当然，huge bid/ask difference 又是一个问题。
总之，这是纯理论讨论，不涉及实际操作。 |
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s********0
发帖数: 3644 | 35 和1/2/3x 没有关系，看etf是hold stocks或者options/future. 后者需要roll over，
所以会decay。 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 36 Decay is proportional to
(1) square of underlying index
(2) square of 倍数 |
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S*******s
发帖数: 13043 | 37 obviously it is wrong because FAZ decays much faster than FAS |
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o**o
发帖数: 3964 | 38 It's not news that N x EFTs decay over time because the instruments they use
can't be gamma neutral, so lose money at constant re-balancing. Before
looking into the math, wanted to check some boundary conditions.
your last equation seems to suggest long and short the same stock (a=-1, b=0
?), the short leg constantly underperform the long? |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 39 Just more clarification based on the assumption of equal up/down days. For a
nX bull/bear ETF pair on an underlying index with volatility v. The rates
of decay are:
Bull ETF: ~ n(n-1)v^2
Bear ETF: ~ n(n+1)v^2
~ means proportional
are
they |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 40 An ETF may do daily rebalance. Then a bear ETF is no longer a pure short
play.
should
does
decay |
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L*******n
发帖数: 3169 | 41 未必是time decay，也有可能是vol下降了 |
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j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 43 Time decay is kind of mystified here. It is not magic.
For example, people talk about shorting tna and tza at the same time. Lets
take a look at such a trade.
Imagine you short $10,000 worth of TNA and TZA both. So you need a fund of $
20,000. Imagine IWM first go down 3% and then up 3%. So TNA and TZA go up 9%
and down 9% in different order, and both becomes 99.19% of the original
value, and you pocket a profit of .81%, or $162.
Now imagine instead of doing the above trade, you buy $5400 worth ... 阅读全帖 |
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j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 44 No it's not unfair.
Time decay is realized by adjusting position (done automatically through the
use of leveraged etf), the second trade did the same thing -- adjusting
position, just manually.
right |
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j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 45 The problem is can you short both position with you entire account? No right
? Do you know why? Because these trades have high beta.
Shorting 3x etf for time decay is basically the good old gambling trick of "doubling my bet if I lose". You are guaranteed to win if you have infinite capital.
100% |
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L**J
发帖数: 606 | 46 time decay不能算myth吧，看看8/8和10/3的TZA就是了，在IWM新低的情况下，TZA却还
离高点有10%。
不过能不能吃到那是另外一回事，我看不见得比DT fasfaztnatza来得容易，或者说谈
不上风险free |
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h****n
发帖数: 3447 | 47 逻辑呀逻辑
我说如果keep adjust就没有讨论的必要了。因为adjust base on future,future不停
的变，就不停的adjust。那么讨论一个strategy就没有意义了.需要讨论的是一个
strategy在不停变化的市场条件下的实用性。
然后你和我说你的trade不是based on tomorrow.我随便举了个市场变化的例子，你有
说adjust position.
你到底adjust不adjust base on future market呢？
发信人: jszhb (金嗓子喉宝), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Once again, about "time decay"
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 12 12:42:35 2011, 美东)
My second trade is not based on tomorrow, it the good old strategy of buying
dip.
very |
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h****n
发帖数: 3447 | 48 Then answer my question?
发信人: hatwin (傻就一个字), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Once again, about "time decay"
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 12 12:43:26 2011, 美东)
if the price drop 2% and then go up 4%, where is your trade?
buying
based |
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h****n
发帖数: 3447 | 49 发信人: hatwin (傻就一个字), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Once again, about "time decay"
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 12 12:34:16 2011, 美东)
In the first case, you short without a condition.
In the second case, you buy with a condition.
You can not compare these two because the second trade would not exist if
the condition does not meet. |
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j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 50 I've been trying to be technical, not personal, but a couple of IDs such as
you and the other one kept being personal.
Just to point this out in case someone says I'm trying to pick a fight.
decay |
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