T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 1 今天绿的板块： cons non-cyclical, healthcare, utilities |
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 2
oil as a leading indicator, yes, at least for the most part of this cyclical
bull market since March 2009. But extra work is needed to spot its low and
high.
oil gave back 50% of its gain since its bottom in June and the market is
in the timing band for a turn according to my model, so it was a good spot
for oil to dictate the market to start a rally again, especially if we
have other secondary confirmations.
in a big picture, the simple fact that all risk-on assets have been moving
in the same... 阅读全帖 |
|
M****h
发帖数: 472 | 3 thanks kafen for not only sharing your conclusion but also providing a
learning opportunity for the readers. We are here to improve our technique
as well as for fun.
cyclical
indeed |
|
w*s
发帖数: 7227 | 4 thanks Kafen as well as Zijing !!!
pls come post more.
cyclical
indeed |
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 5
oil as a leading indicator, yes, at least for the most part of this cyclical
bull market since March 2009. But extra work is needed to spot its low and
high.
oil gave back 50% of its gain since its bottom in June and the market is
in the timing band for a turn according to my model, so it was a good spot
for oil to dictate the market to start a rally again, especially if we
have other secondary confirmations.
in a big picture, the simple fact that all risk-on assets have been moving
in the same... 阅读全帖 |
|
M****h
发帖数: 472 | 6 thanks kafen for not only sharing your conclusion but also providing a
learning opportunity for the readers. We are here to improve our technique
as well as for fun.
cyclical
indeed |
|
w*s
发帖数: 7227 | 7 thanks Kafen as well as Zijing !!!
pls come post more.
cyclical
indeed |
|
s******v
发帖数: 4495 | 8 你刚穿越来的？这都是那年的陈芝麻烂谷子的新闻当事说。INTC和其他AMD/NVDA/SYNA/
MRVL/不行了，你根本没有说到点子上，那就是，
PC growth age is over, it is becoming a cyclical industry like utility or
auto. We probably will see a shipment drop as early as 2013 Q1. |
|
f*******h
发帖数: 721 | 9 正常现象。IT一直是cyclical。
现在是传统意义上经济上升周期的开始。前一阵IT走高主要是企业扩大产能，升级设备
。现在已经告一段落。IT在这方面的营收会受到不小影响。
从消费市场上看，经济上升率先恢复的是房市，直接带动金融业，等到买房的越来越
多，就会带动家电和汽车，接下来再带动IT。接下来IT会主要受益于消费者市场。现在
我们看到的是IT的downside surprise。一年后会有很多upside surprise。因为买房到
消费有一定传导时间。当然，MSFT，AAPL，和GOOG，竞争太激烈，产品从技术上讲有很
多不确定性，想搞清楚谁赢谁输，必须具备很强的软件，硬件，设计，消费心理学和
supply chain的知识，缺一不可。任何一项都可能置这三家于死地。所以我还不敢碰这
些股票。
而像MCD这样的快餐店有一个重要的客户群，就是construction和maintenance worker.
建筑业正在逐渐从每年40万套房的低谷恢复到100万套的平均水平。快餐店的客流量会
有较大增长。
再加上退休的boomer数量庞大，这些人在无法从固定利率获得足够收入的情况下会被... 阅读全帖 |
|
y******i
发帖数: 2584 | 10 http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-chanos-on-value-traps-2012-6
Here's Jim Chanos' Presentation On How To Spot A Crappy Stock
Julia La Roche | Jun. 27, 2012, 9:45 AM | 123,422 | 5
inShare17
Email
More
Jim Chanos
Bloomberg TV
Hedge fund titan Jim Chanos, the founder of Kynikos Associates, gave a
presentation last week at ValueX Vail on how to spot a company that looks
good, but is actually a value trap. [via Jacob Wolinksy at ValueWalk]
Chanos, who famously shorted Enron before the... 阅读全帖 |
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 11 both charts look terrible. besides, aapl is running out of innovations,
whereas apa is in a cyclical industry and it's not even a leader. why bother
? |
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 12 Long bond is sitting at the critical point
expecting it to fall off the cliff in the next few months
this might drive the stock market bull in a parabolic fashion.
if it does, it might be the last leg of this cyclical bull market.
most assetts should receive a strong dose due to the liquidity rushing
out of the bond market.
but the general stock market, especially the weak Nasdaq, might leave
the party earlier than things like oil and gold.
the coming summer can be very bloody. |
|
k*****x
发帖数: 713 | 13 我看好，金融是late cyclical, 现在买正合适，再不济还有1.6%股息 |
|
l*****7
发帖数: 8463 | 14 pure option games:-)
AAPL is not worth investing till 280-350 range!!!
AAPL will be a stock for cyclical trading only |
|
p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 15 闲来无事，发个贴谈一下spx。 事先声明，以下用来估spx价值的方法不适宜用来炒
spx，也不是本人用来炒spx的基础，但对于长线投资或许有点参考价值。
数据来源， yale robert shiller 的网站的.
CAPE(or shiller pe)-cyclically adjusted price to earning,就是price/10yr
average earning, shiller 用real price/real earning, 我用他的nominal data,估
计差不多。
以下是统计数据
post 1881 post 1945 post 1972
average cape 18.089121132 21.2391410143 22.9730820113
median cape 15.9243524863 20.0333490382 21.8896179244
stedev cape 7.0461650924 7.6921046915 9.05... 阅读全帖 |
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 16 SP rose from 666 to 1680 in 4 years
a bear market lasting about one to two years are quite normal following
a strong cyclical bull market we just experienced
the question should be how deep this bear market goes |
|
r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 17 大仓位的确下次要小心，真赶上日本那样大盘涨到1700的确会比较惨，但wipe out还是
没可能，损失会有15-20%左右。我最后一次加仓是因为看到cyclic sector已经连续2周
不行了，大盘涨完全是靠utility等板块了
但margin现在broker的利息都超低，这次搞了1个半月借了差不多20万，算上short
interest,刚才看statement, IB只收了我大概100刀都不到。 |
|
J******s
发帖数: 913 | 18 Did you mean SPY? Most cyclical stocks are at bottom, and will get huge
bounce.
Bull market will continue! |
|
r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 19 天天有板块出来领舞，不领舞的就后面猪着。今天是原材料,等下周出点坏消息，就说
投资者避险都去了defensive板块，大盘还是涨，然后又出来说经济好转，大家再去
cyclic板块，真是良性循环啊 |
|
r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 20 i don't think bond is the issue. How much rate of bond can you expect from
small cyclic house builder company in a "house bubble" country like xinyuan?
B+ rating is good enough and 13% is a typical rate for a B+ international
bond. Their bond underwriters are all big financial firms. If they don't
check/believe xinyuan's accounting, they wouldn't endorse it. Xin also used
to issue/re-pay like $100M bond several years ago.
But I have to admit, today's trading looks very weird and their conference... 阅读全帖 |
|
k******i
发帖数: 686 | 21 现在就算不是牛市末期，也是牛市中晚期了，买点cyclical和垃圾股就好了。
你提的FCX不错，买一点看看。
其实如果大家真确定commodity类能涨，直接买龙头就好了。就像看好太阳能就买FSLR
一样。 |
|
u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 22 Why has the stock market been rallying during the past five months? In
hindsight, it seems simple. As long as the Fed or any other central bank (
most recently, the Bank of Japan) is printing money, then stocks rally.
As I have been writing in recent months (Read Viewpoints: Will the sweet
spot for stocks continue?), there have been four factors supporting risk
assets since November: the economy, the market's technical condition (or
tape), sentiment, and monetary policy. Until a few weeks ago, t... 阅读全帖 |
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 23 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-currency-markets-its-a-90s-
In currency markets, it’s a ‘90s flashback
Commentary: Reliving America’s ‘comeback’ decade
There’s a distinctly 1990s feel to currency markets right now.
It’s not that Wall Street FX traders are breaking out their grunge clothing
or firing up their 28-bps dial-up modems. It’s that the dollar’s current
moment of global strength looks more like the second half of that go-go
decade than any other period in its recent history.
The Wall... 阅读全帖 |
|
m****e
发帖数: 85 | 24 新手做股票基本上就是烧钱买教训，但是少缴学费也是好的，毕竟是血汗钱，所以提供
以下几点建议
(1)市场基本常识: 比如知道股票是分类的，分类很有学问，新手要知道简单的分类
energy, material, industrial, consumer staple, consumer discretionary, heath
care, financial, technology, telecom, utility 这些sectors 有的是defensive(
通常和经济周期无关,pay dividend,比如utility),有些是cyclical(与经济周期相关，
经济好，长得快，经济差，跌得快，比如 industrial)
(2)有了基本常识后从简单入手，比如 DOW 30. 一共就30只蓝筹，好好消化就不错了，
比如说都属于什么sector，谁和谁都是一起走的等等
(3)练心理: 这个对新手最必要。找一只猛涨的股票，天天看，不久估计你就会有要买
的冲动，但是绝对不要买，直到你看得没感觉。再找一只猛跌的股票，天天看，如果有
反弹，估计不久你就会有买的冲动，一样绝对不买，直到没感觉... 阅读全帖 |
|
m****e
发帖数: 85 | 25 新手做股票基本上就是烧钱买教训，但是少缴学费也是好的，毕竟是血汗钱，所以提供
以下几点建议
(1)市场基本常识: 比如知道股票是分类的，分类很有学问，新手要知道简单的分类
energy, material, industrial, consumer staple, consumer discretionary, heath
care, financial, technology, telecom, utility 这些sectors 有的是defensive(
通常和经济周期无关,pay dividend,比如utility),有些是cyclical(与经济周期相关，
经济好，长得快，经济差，跌得快，比如 industrial)
(2)有了基本常识后从简单入手，比如 DOW 30. 一共就30只蓝筹，好好消化就不错了，
比如说都属于什么sector，谁和谁都是一起走的等等
(3)练心理: 这个对新手最必要。找一只猛涨的股票，天天看，不久估计你就会有要买
的冲动，但是绝对不要买，直到你看得没感觉。再找一只猛跌的股票，天天看，如果有
反弹，估计不久你就会有买的冲动，一样绝对不买，直到没感觉... 阅读全帖 |
|
a******n
发帖数: 70 | 26 Will go to 12.5 very soon
Then buy. This is a cyclic stock |
|
s***m
发帖数: 6197 | 27 我对这个pick主要是用cyclical pattern来分析它的，我觉得pattern很清晰
所以我准备在它downtrend要开始的时候开始short
我觉得在22.5到23之间有很大的阻力
你的这个分析法的原理是什么呢？ |
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 28 GS said(your money your call):
The current valuation of the S&P 500 is lofty by almost any measure, both
for the aggregate market as well as the median stock: (1) The P/E ratio; (2)
the current P/E expansion cycle; (3) EV/Sales; (4) EV/EBITDA; (5) Free Cash
Flow yield; (6) Price/Book as well as the ROE and P/B relationship; and
compared with the levels of (6) inflation; (7) nominal 10-year Treasury
yields; and (8) real interest rates. Furthermore, the cyclically-adjusted P/
E ratio suggests the ... 阅读全帖 |
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 29 we are no where close to a biotech bubble, at least 10 years away
an anology would be IT companies in early 80's
yes, many of them will be eliminated through the next cyclical bear market
but the sector will be the main driver for the following secular
bull market, which will push SP500 to 10000 |
|
a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 30 Americas : Market Intelligence – Morning Update
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
by Chris Hussey
Published March 28, 2014
Stocks in Asia were mixed Friday with a somewhat positive tilt as Japan and
Hong Kong saw gains while Shanghai and Taiwan ticked down a hair. Data out
of the region continues to paint a complex picture. In Japan, February
retail sales were strong (+3.6% yoy) but appears to be tied to consumers
buying items ahead of a planned sales tax hike in April since the February
real household spendi... 阅读全帖 |
|
Z****g
发帖数: 13731 | 31 高手做股票基本上就是烧钱买教训，但是少缴学费也是好的，毕竟是血汗钱，所以提供
以下几点建议
(1)市场基本常识: 比如知道股票是分类的，分类很有学问，高手要知道简单的分类
energy, material, industrial, consumer staple, consumer discretionary, heath
care, financial, technology, telecom, utility 这些sectors 有的是defensive(
通常和经济周期无关,pay dividend,比如utility),有些是cyclical(与经济周期相关，
经济好，长得快，经济差，跌得快，比如 industrial)
(2)有了基本常识后从简单入手，比如 DOW 30. 一共就30只蓝筹，好好消化就不错了，
比如说都属于什么sector，谁和谁都是一起走的等等
(3)练心理: 这个对高手最必要。找一只猛涨的股票，天天看，不久估计你就会有要买
的冲动，但是绝对不要买，直到你看得没感觉。再找一只猛跌的股票，天天看，如果有
反弹，估计不久你就会有买的冲动，一样绝对不买，直到没感觉... 阅读全帖 |
|
s******e
发帖数: 493 | 32 cyclical seems to be the right word to describe them if they can survive the
down trend |
|
D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 33
坐稳了，这个是要翻倍的， cyclic play |
|
D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 34
坐稳了，这个是要翻倍的， cyclic play |
|
C*G
发帖数: 7495 | 35 版大的 cyclic play，是指TA，还是FA，还是行业板块？
hiahia |
|
C*G
发帖数: 7495 | 36 版大的 cyclic play，是指TA，还是FA，还是行业板块？
hiahia |
|
N****p
发帖数: 1691 | 37 Stocks Stage Positive Reversal, Wiping Out Early Losses
By PAUL WHITFIELD, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 10/16/2014 07:08 PM ET
Stocks made several U-turns Thursday, eventually closing just above the
break-even line.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 edged up fractionally. The IBD 50 popped 1.5%.
Volume fell across the board.
The indexes were sharply negative until Federal Reserve non-voting member
James Bullard said the Fed should delay the end of its bond-buying program,
set to conclude this month.
Wh... 阅读全帖 |
|
N****p
发帖数: 1691 | 38 当心 有可能IBD和我们都错了 呵呵
Indexes Mark Follow-Through, Confirming Uptrend
By JUAN CARLOS ARANCIBIA, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Stocks soared Tuesday, signaling that the market correction has ended.
The Nasdaq surged 2.4% and the S&P 500 2%, their best gains so far this year.
Coupled with a solid increase in volume, the two major indexes made a follow
-through signal, which changed the market outlook from bearish to bullish.
The magnitude of Tuesday's move was compelling, if not surprising. Gains
wer... 阅读全帖 |
|
r***s
发帖数: 1805 | 39 很多老年美国人依靠投资的401K或别的retirement fund, 08年他们发现投资的钱蒸发
了,很多老年人才不得不在继续工作. 如果再过15年大盘又象00/08年那样crash了,现在
投资的人恐怕有相同的命运.所以我说你着种投资方法要用不需要的闲钱,四十年不看.
倒霉的话碰上00/08年那样的cyclical markets, 跌的时候吓死, 回来的时候也没多少
赢利.
>Plus you don't really want to invest the money for living expenses, who
does
?That would be crazy. |
|
k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 40 不要。
Cbi是cyclic play.
过不了多久就会再回个位数，然后再拉起。。。
说错了别怨我，仅供参考 |
|
J**********D
发帖数: 160 | 41 I just got some, hoping it could be a long term play. BRK owns about 10%,
probably not picked by Buffett but his designated successors. It acquired
another company a couple of years ago so carries a lot of debt ($4bln?) So
seems depressed. You can check seeking alpha website for some in-depth
analysis and make your own decision. Its business does not solely consist of
oil and natural gas, but also nuclear. Some claims it has only 3% oil
exposure but was wrongly dragged down. There are lots of a... 阅读全帖 |
|
g*****k
发帖数: 1669 | 42 non-cyclical. good to have during financial crisis. |
|
k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 43 下10可以砸锅卖铁熬硬
跟公司跟石油市场一点关系没有。
2009年cbi是整个休斯顿大公司停车场唯一爆满的公司。而且还雇人。
现在cbi也在雇人，很多LNG项目。
这个公司股票是cyclic play |
|
v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 44 growth stock短期都受制于大盘，甚至比大盘多跌两三倍。但是中长期来看其实是可以
脱离大盘的，因为根本来讲他们的故事是secular的，大盘的故事是cyclical的。 |
|
N*****d
发帖数: 9872 | 45 http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/092214/how-selec
Concern areas for trading/investing in penny stocks:
Lacking the stringent regulatory requirements, Penny stocks may not be
listed on national exchanges – a clear indication of the high risks
associated with penny stocks.
Trading occurs on smaller exchanges (like OTCBB and Pink Sheets) which may
not have requirements of returns filing and open information sharing,
keeping investors unaware of the company’s business and prospects
Sho... 阅读全帖 |
|
l*****g
发帖数: 391 | 46 又一个坏消息。VALE 惨了 ：
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Brazilian iron ore producer Vale (VALE -
Get Report) were flat at $7.11 in early afternoon trading Thursday after
peer company BHP Billiton (BHP) defended its strategy of increasing iron
ore output during a global oversupply.
The company stood by its approach even as iron ore prices have declined
approximately 40% in the past 12 months.
"This is a market which is highly competitive. It's cyclical, and so our
performance will be dependent on be... 阅读全帖 |
|
M***n
发帖数: 5815 | 47 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
eMan36 (西风独自凉) 于 (Wed May 13 00:26:01 2015, 美东) 提到:
这个股票现在还在20均线之上。。担心什么呢
At
(P
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
lovesag (lovesag) 于 (Wed May 13 00:28:12 2015, 美东) 提到:
明天要去50日均线， $7.07 ?
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
xxhh (嘻嘻哈哈) 于 (Wed May 13 01:31:33 2015, 美东) 提到:
50日均线不是6.5吗？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
lovesag (lovesag) 于 (Wed May 13 07:51:08 2015, 美东) 提到:
如果像这样，每天都是 VALE 的坏消息，那就跌去 6.5 了。
☆──────────────... 阅读全帖 |
|
N****p
发帖数: 1691 | 48 不排除重测低点 但是基本没有大熊可能 这是最重要的
我现在基本convinced 今年相当于1998 或者 2012 的位置
接下来Consumer Cyclicals 和 Commodity 要领跑 |
|
C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 49 $6.84啦，哈哈哈哈哈哈，有被俺猜中了。
白机器人继续developing中，这个统计模型中叫cyclical effect。 |
|
g*****1
发帖数: 1121 | 50 这几个月来，做短线一直在亏，但是之前做长线一直都是赚的。因为broker建议我各个
行业都分散投资，所以对一些行业都做过一些研究，抛砖引玉，欢迎讨论。
石油科技生药板块版上说的很多，我就不列举了。
地产：EXR,AVB
home builder这块，我知道最大的几家分别是PHM和DHI，但是我这几年观察下来，手势
并不算很强，所以不做推荐。
REIT这块，最近几年走势很强。但是相比于builder，REIT受房产价格涨跌的影响更大
，投资时应注意相应风险。推荐EXR和AVB，前面一个是专做物流仓储的，后面一个公寓
出租。
医疗：HCA
除了生药以外，healthcare里面还有医院这块。HCA算是其中的佼佼者，市值很大，营
收也非常稳定，过去5年走势也很稳定。不过HCA在8/24以后明显走势偏弱，估计也和其
他生药类一起被打击了。
Consumer Cyclicals:DIS
DIS是绝对的优质股，在传媒影视方面的地位无人能比。我从12年开始一直都持有DIS，
47的成本，直到上个季报暴跌后（120跌倒105），stop out。但即使是现在，如果要做
长线，DIS依然是非常值得占有一... 阅读全帖 |
|
