g****r
发帖数: 306 | 1 03/03/2012
i am initiating a thread on the coal sector and call close attention to coal
tickers in the coming days, weeks or months (or even years??) for those who
are interested in the energy sector, and the coal industry in particular.
If a true bottom, a near-bottom or even a significant rebound can be tracked
, discovered and caught during the course of close attention, wouldn't the
return to be generated be hefty? wouldn't that type of return alone be good
enough in a given year to be shown off to your friends, your family, your
loved ones and people here as well?
You are very welcome to contribute to this effort in the form of either
technical or fundamental analysis.Just wild thinking or brain storming? Sure
, no problem at all.
Disclamer: i am currently long MTL @11.26. I may buy more or sell it at any time without prior notice.
Series 1:
The status - black and white sides in the macro view
Black side:
"The sector feeling the worst impacts from gas' downturn is thermal coal.
Demand for the coal burned to generate power in the US is plummeting as
utilities take advantage of the cheapest natural gas in ten years.
Consumption of coal to produce electricity is expected to fall 2% this year
to its lowest level since 1992, while gas-fired consumption rises 5.6%.
Making matters worse, winter heating demand is falling in the face of mild
weather: through January, this has been the warmest winter since 2006 and
the fourth-warmest on record. With natural gas and warm weather conspiring
against it, coal demand is decidedly down - in the second week of February,
coal consumption was 4.3% lower than it was a year ago.
Exports are not going to provide any help. Last year, Europe bought 50% of
America's thermal coal exports, but demand from the EU is shrinking as the
region struggles to stave off a recession. The economies of the EU shrank 0.
3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the previous quarter, the first
contraction since mid-2009.
In response, US thermal coal prices are deteriorating. Appalachian coal, the
US thermal-coal benchmark, fell 15% in January alone to sit near US$60 per
tonne and has moved little since (by comparison, Australian thermal coal is
currently fetching almost US$120 per tonne). Mining costs to dig thermal
coal out of the ground range from $60 to $75 per tonne for Central
Appalachian producers, which means margins are already razor thin or
nonexistent. Several major US thermal coal producers are reducing output and
in some cases closing mines, including Arch Coal (NYSE.ACI), Patriot Coal (
NYSE.PCX), and Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE.ANR)."
White side
"Thermal coal prices in the United States may be faltering, but that doesn't
mean that coal is in the doldrums across the globe. In fact, quite the
contrary: global thermal-coal demand is expected to increase by 50% from
2008 to 2035, with the vast majority of increased demand coming from the
developing world. That equates to a demand increase of 1.5% each year, and
production is not quite expected to keep up to that pace. Rising demand plus
not-quite-enough supply equals investment opportunities - maybe not in the
US, but elsewhere.
That's just thermal coal. There's another component to the coal world:
metallurgical coal, the higher-carbon coal used to make steel. Supplies are
even tighter with metallurgical coal, which is why our subscribers have
exposure to "met coal" through either equities or a fund. " | g****r
发帖数: 306 | 2 Series 2: Cheap or expensive at near 52 weeks low?
Here is one perspective based on valuation. According to him, they are still quite expensive in terms of current and forward PE. Keep in mind that anybody's opinions or views on any stock could only be taken as a reference at any time.
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"I've written 10 articles on the coal sector in February. A common theme
throughout is that earnings estimates for 2012 and 2013 are at risk. I
backed this up with quotes from industry consultants and company executives
and a warning on the implications of the imminent benchmark coking coal
settlement. With both coal prices and coal company stocks lower, I recommend
further caution.
However, there may be light at the end of the coal shaft. Frequently, when
coal stocks bottom, the rebound can be ferocious. A prime example is the
massive rally from the bottom of October 3rd, 2011. In just 19 trading days,
from October 3rd to October 28th, the average U.S. producer was up 62%!
Walter Energy, (WLT) was the worst relative performer, up "only" 43%.
Peabody Energy, (BTU), Consol Energy, (CNX) and Cloud Peak, (CLD) were each
up 48%. James River, (JRCC) was up the most, from $5.55 to $11.44 per share,
for a gain of 106%. Stick that in your hat and annualize it.
Since that 10/28/11 high mark, the average coal stock is down approximately
30%. In fact, Patriot Coal, (PCX), JRCC and Arch Coal, (ACI) are each less
than 10% from their respective October lows. Are we approaching another
aggressive buying opportunity? Sadly, no. At current stock prices, there's
little possibility of an explosive rally, but downside below last October's
levels is quite possible. Back in early October, the coal stocks were really
cheap AND coal fundamentals were way better than they are today.
To understand my thinking, consider Alpha Natural Resources, (ANR).
According to YahooFinance, (which gets its data from Capital IQ), in the
past 90 days, EPS estimates for 2012 moved down to $0.84 per share from $1.
88. This means that ANR was trading at a 1-yr forward (2012) multiple of 8.
5x its October low of ~$16 per share. Today, ANR is trading at a 10.2x
multiple of that prior $1.88 estimate, but with the consensus down to $0.84,
2012's P/E is now 22.9x.
Some will argue that I'm not comparing apples to apples. Back in October
investors were looking at a 1-yr forward, (2012) EPS multiple, so to make a
fair comparison I should use today's 1-yr forward, (2013) EPS estimate.
Doing that generates a P/E of 14.9x. To repeat, on October 3rd, Alpha stock
bottomed at ~$16 per share with a then 1-yr forward, (2012) P/E of 8.5x.
Today, at ~$19 per share, the stock is trading at a 1-yr forward, (2013) P/E
of 14.9x.
For ANR to trade as cheaply as it did last October, the stock would have to
fall to [8.5 P/E x $1.29 equals approximately $11 per share]. Even if one
argues that ANR is still a Buy at a 10 or 12 2013 P/E, I have more bad news
for you. I'm pretty sure that Alpha's consensus 2013 EPS figure remains too
high. Of the 9 published research reports (that I've seen) issued subsequent
to ANR's recent earnings miss, the average EPS estimate is $0.92, almost 30
% below the official $1.29 average.
According to YahooFinance, 2013's consensus is comprised of 25 estimates. I
argue that of the remaining 16 EPS estimates that were not updated via a
published note, many are probably stale. Simple math shows that if 9 of 25
EPS estimates average $0.92 per share, then the other 16 estimates must
average $1.50 per share to reach the consensus of $1.29. However, only 2 of
the 9 reports that I've seen have 2013 EPS estimates at or above $1.50 per
share, and the other 7 reports have an average 2013 EPS estimate of just $0.
46.
Okay, a lot of numbers have been thrown around. Please re-read the last few
paragraphs if necessary because I believe the implications of my reasoning
is inescapable. ANR and peers will have great difficulty rallying unless
coal fundamentals improve markedly. And as I've been writing all month,
there's scant evidence of any meaningful improvement.
By no means am I picking on ANR. The same reasoning can be applied to each
of the coal names. None are attractive at current prices. If in the coming
weeks or months the stocks trade materially lower AND coal fundamentals
improve, that might set up the potential for a rip-a-thon like that of 10/3/
11-10/28/11. In the meantime, we're nowhere near that scenario."
coal
who
tracked
good
【在 g****r 的大作中提到】
: 03/03/2012
: i am initiating a thread on the coal sector and call close attention to coal
: tickers in the coming days, weeks or months (or even years??) for those who
: are interested in the energy sector, and the coal industry in particular.
: If a true bottom, a near-bottom or even a significant rebound can be tracked
: , discovered and caught during the course of close attention, wouldn't the
: return to be generated be hefty? wouldn't that type of return alone be good
: enough in a given year to be shown off to your friends, your family, your
: loved ones and people here as well?
: You are very welcome to contribute to this effort in the form of either
| b**********k
发帖数: 1262 | 3 煤股最近跌的真惨， JRCC 那天一个10%+的反弹，接着第二天就-7%的下去了。
看着真刺激..... | t********o
发帖数: 555 | 4 是啊，pcx跌得超过预期了，还好没有在7的时候接飞刀
【在 b**********k 的大作中提到】
: 煤股最近跌的真惨， JRCC 那天一个10%+的反弹，接着第二天就-7%的下去了。
: 看着真刺激.....
| t****g
发帖数: 3434 | 5 暂时不看好能源板块。
现在中美合作玩欧洲，能源暂时没戏。 |
|
