y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Chinook 俱乐部 】
发信人: yaokarl (大象), 信区: Chinook
标 题: 2012 Earnings Estimates Need to Fall 15%: Trennert
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 4 10:19:10 2011, 美东)
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/2012-earnings-estimates
It all begins a week from today when Alcoa (AA) reports third-quarter
earnings results after the bell next Tuesday, marking the "unofficial" kick
off of the latest earnings season. Contrary to broader market sentiment and
a pair of analyst downgrades this week, the aluminum maker is set to deliver
a strong set of results. Consensus for Alcoa is $0.27/share, up from $0.09
a year ago with sales forecast to grow 20%. Even so, Alcoa's stock is a
disaster. AA is down 42% year-to-date --the third worst performer among Dow
components-- and is today at levels not seen since April 2009.
Of course, with Alcoa - and stocks in general - it's more about where you're
heading than where you've been. It's also emblematic of why Jason Trennert,
chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners, is maintaining
an uncharacteristically bearish stance, which he took on in early August.
"I am still quite cautious on stocks," Trennert says in the attached video
clip, adding that it is hard to get excited about the market when the US,
Europe, and Asia are staring recession right in the eye.
"Earnings have not been the problem," he says. "It's the fact that people
continue to want to pay less for each dollar of earnings." And with
expectations for those earnings expected to be cut dramatically over the
next month or two, most investors feel the path lower is going to be a lot
easier than the path higher.
Like many investors, Trennert thinks 2012 earnings estimates of $115/share
for the S&P 500 need to come down. The question is how far down and how much
of that negative revisionism is already baked into the market. Trennert
believes it needs to head all the way down to $97/share (which would make
for flat year-on-year profits for 2012) and doesn't think it's already
discounted.
"I am not convinced that the market has completely priced in weaker earnings
or a global recession next year," he says, predicting that "the next 10% is
lower not higher."
Earlier this week on Breakout, S&P Strategist Sam Stovall voiced a similarly
spooky target, forecasting that if this market follows the path of the
average bear market, then we will be looking at the S&P 500 falling into the
900's in the next 6 to 9 months after closing out the year with a good
fourth-quarter.
Whatever the path and timing, the trajectory is clearly lower and the
expectations are falling. According to Factset, third-quarter consensus
estimates have come down 3% in the past 3 months. It's a start but only a
drop in the bucket for buyers like Trennert who says he needs to see the S&P
at 950 before he's an aggressive buyer. |
|
