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f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 1 UP in pre-market.
The Long Case for Avalon Rare Metals
2 comments | by: Michael Filloon February 08, 2011 |
about: ARAFF.PK / AVL / MCP / QSURD.PK / REE
Rare Earth Elements or REEs seem to be the newest big mover on Wall Street.
Although most have heard of them, they do not know what their use is. The
best way to identify them is by going back to chemistry class and looking at
a periodic table. Here is an easier introduction.
Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL) has seen a large appreciation of market cap
over the past year, but this may just be the beginning. Avalon has a well
diversified set of rare earth holdings. All of their projects are 100% owned
.
The Thor Lake holding is delineated into two separate mines. Nechalacho has
several heavy rare earths such as tantalum, niobium, zirconium, haffnium,
and gallium. The North deposit contains berylium, lithium, gallium and
niobium. Separation Rapids has lithium. Lilypad Lakes has tantalum. Warren
Township has anorthosite and East Kemptville has tin-indium.
Avalon's Thor Lake deposit at Nechalacho had a positive prefeasibility study
done in 2010. The company has invested $27 million Canadian since 2005. The
bankable feasibility is underway and is fully financed. This should be
completed by 2012. This large resource could be quite profitable as it has a
20%-28% heavy earths. Recovery process at bench scale, with pilot plant in
progress. Production start up is planned for 2015.
When comparing the Nechalacho to other areas with large concentrations of
rare earths, we see a very large concentration of the heavy rare earths. Mt.
Weld in Australia, Mountain Pass in USA, and Nolans in Australia all show a
much smaller concentration of heavy rare earth elements. Heavies constitute
22.2% of rare earths in Nechalacho as opposed to the high of 3.13% at
Nolans to the low of .39% at Mountain Pass. Although this gives a limited
comparison, it shows the heavy rare earths are in much more limited supply.
Interestingly there has been a much larger demand for rare earths over the
past few years, and nothing shows it slowing down. At the same time China
has begun to decrease exports. Export quotas will be reduced by 35% in the
first half of this year. There has also been an increase in media coverage
for this group. The REE groups have benefited by posting a 300% increase in
2010. Molycorp (MCP) has done a great job of attracting media coverage and
with is has seen a large jump in share appreciation. Molycorp's magnet alloy
joint venture with Hitachi Metals also added investor interest. The company
also announced expansion plans to 40000 tpa TREO and new equity finance.
Looking at Chinese REE exports from 1990 to 2011, show a decrease in overall
exports, but a very large jump in the value of those exports. It shows
price increases of REEs.
As of January 19th of 2011, MetalPages.com listed the prices of these rare
earths:
Light Rare Earths
Lanthanum Oxide 99% min- $61-$63/kg (Rechargeable Batteries)
Cerium Oxide 99% min- $66-$68/kg (Catalyst, glass, polishing)
Praseodymiun 99% min- $89-$92/kg (magnets, glass colorant)
neodymium 99% min-$89.50-$92.50/kg (magnets, lasers, glass)
samarium 99% min-$54-$55/kg (magnets, lighting, lasers)
Heavy Rare Earths
Europium Oxide 99% min- $620-$640 (TV Colour Phosphors: red)
Terbium Oxide 99% min-$610-$630 (Phosphors: Green, magnets)
Dysprosium Oxide 99% min- $285-$305 (Magnets, Lasers)
Gadolinium Oxide 99% min- $53-$56 (Magnets, Superconductors)
Yttrium Oxide 99.999% min- $72-$77 (Phosphors, Ceramics, Lasers)
Two of the REEs listed are of particular interest. Pricing with respect to
dysprosium and neodymium has been quite bullish since December of 2009.
Dysprosium is up over 300% and neodymium is up approximately 500% over this
time frame. Demand is up significantly with many of the REEs, and this
demand should continue for some time.
Magnets and electric motors or Neo magnets allow for a reduced electric
motor/generator size and weight. This improves motor efficiency. Examples
broken down by amount of REE used are:
Electronics- use small amounts (grams)
Hybrid electric cars- use one to two kilograms
Industrial air conditioners- use on average 500 kg
Wind turbines- use .6-1.0 tonne/MW
MRI machines- use 1-3 tonnes
It is safe to say, that some of the rare earths could see dramatic price
increases. When looking at the cost savings with respect to reduced power
consumption (up to 50%), and decreased size, consumers will be willing to
pay higher prices for these advantages. 30% of these magnets are made from
neodymium metal. Dysprosium and terbium make magnets heat resistant, which
is becoming much more important in automotive applications. Many of the
heavy rare earths are used in energy efficient lighting and display screens.
A good example of production need are wind turbines. GE produces a 4 MW
model that uses 2 to 3 tonnes of neo magnets. GE has additional plans to
begin producing a 10 MW model.
Nechalacho is now the third largest deposit in the world with respect to
niobium. It is used in high strength, low alloy steels. Use of this type of
steel is expected to double in a the next few years. Bridge and ship
building create demand. Niobium is just starting to be used in automobiles
and the weight decrease increases fuel efficiency. $9 of niobium creates
fuel savings of one litre every 100 kilometers.
Most zirconium production comes form zircon sands in Australia and South
Africa. China currently imports zircon sands and is the only producer of
zirconium oxychloride. This is needed to produce Zr rated metal. Consumption
is increasing. It is used in nuclear reactor builds.
The Nechalacho mine will eventually produce 2000 tonnes per day, although it
is expected to initially be a lower rate. Production of 10000 tpa mixed REE
oxides for separation elsewhere. The market captures less than 5% of
estimated 2014 total rare earth oxide global demand. Operating costs are
estimated to be $267 per tonne. Cap ex estimate is $900 million for
Nechalacho.
Currently there are no large scale rare earth separation capabilities
outside of China. Building a 25000 tpa HREE plant would have an estimated
cap ex of C$345 million. Sites are being reviewed for possible build.
The best way to determine if Avalon is a good investment is through
comparison to other companies in the REE market. Avalon (AVL) has a market
cap of 633 million; it has 4.298 million tons of TREO, which values their
rare earth oxide at $147 per tonne. Arafura (ARAFF.PK) had a market cap of $
390 million; it has .84 ton of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at
$464 per ton. Quest Rare MInerals (QSURD.PK) has a market cap of 281 million
; it has 551 million tons of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $
511 per ton. Rare Element Resources (REE) has a market cap of 502 million;
it has .55 million of tons TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $913
per ton. Molycorp has a market cap of 4.22 billion; it has 1.395 million
tons of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $3025 per ton. It is
obvious some of these numbers are skewed as Molycorp is in the production/
expansion stage of their business and Avalon is in the development stage,
but this does not change the value of the metal in the ground, and
comparison to pears seems to show they are trading at a discount.
In Summary, REEs are an attractive trade based on the expansion of
technology with the emphasis on renewable energy. Although many of these
stocks are up an exceptional amount, this trade is somewhat like uranium.
They trade very high on the idea that companies will pay much more then
today's prices. An example is their use in steel creating a lighter car. The
$9 of niobium saves a liter of fuel ever 100 km. The savings in one
thousand km in month's driving would more then substantiate a major price
increase of niobium. If investing in the rare earths, Avalon is attractive
from two standpoints. The company has a very high concentration of heavy
rare earths. Since these are more scarce price increases will be more likely
here. Secondly, it seems to be a value when compared to REEs in the ground.
I think any of the names mentioned here are a good trade, until the current
trade ends.
Disclosure: I am long AVL. | k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 2 sold half of AVL
a close double for me
added GWG.V
AVL's underground mine may take years to be constructed
would like to get something closer to production, especially HREE
.
at
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】
: UP in pre-market.
: The Long Case for Avalon Rare Metals
: 2 comments | by: Michael Filloon February 08, 2011 |
: about: ARAFF.PK / AVL / MCP / QSURD.PK / REE
: Rare Earth Elements or REEs seem to be the newest big mover on Wall Street.
: Although most have heard of them, they do not know what their use is. The
: best way to identify them is by going back to chemistry class and looking at
: a periodic table. Here is an easier introduction.
: Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL) has seen a large appreciation of market cap
: over the past year, but this may just be the beginning. Avalon has a well
| f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 3 Niu.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: sold half of AVL
: a close double for me
: added GWG.V
: AVL's underground mine may take years to be constructed
: would like to get something closer to production, especially HREE
:
: .
: at
| f******r
发帖数: 3363 | | f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 5 People are always greedy. Looking for 8 or 9 later. Watch tomorrow.
【在 f******r 的大作中提到】
: AVL 7.5了，大家还HOLD吗？
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 6 You must have bought it in IRA.
I am up on AVL 140%, but I hate short term returns.
I got a small slice of great western and quest yesterday, both heavy REE
the reason I bought quest is that they will be uplisting in US soon.
Alkane also have heavy REE, and cheap price too, like LYSCF.
I guess Aussies are conservative people.
I am hoping that both will start running sooner than later.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: sold half of AVL
: a close double for me
: added GWG.V
: AVL's underground mine may take years to be constructed
: would like to get something closer to production, especially HREE
:
: .
: at
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 7 I like Quest too and bought it last December before the big run up
its mine is open pit so mining cost should be lower than AVL
Long term investors like you normally outperform most traders
I wanted to hold longer like you do
but sometimes just cant resist tradings lol
unfortunately AVL is in my regular account I will have to feed uncle sam
next year from my profit.
I try to follow my decipline to sell half at a double and only let the
free shares run the rest way. In these volitilesectors, diversification
makes me feel more comfortable with my holdings.
I also observed that ASX stocks move much slower than their peers in north
America. In fertilizer stocks, Minemakers is underperforming its peers
like AAA.V AMZ.V and BOE.V quite a bit, not to mention the wild card, PPI.V.
But it may be a better value now.
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】
: You must have bought it in IRA.
: I am up on AVL 140%, but I hate short term returns.
: I got a small slice of great western and quest yesterday, both heavy REE
: the reason I bought quest is that they will be uplisting in US soon.
: Alkane also have heavy REE, and cheap price too, like LYSCF.
: I guess Aussies are conservative people.
: I am hoping that both will start running sooner than later.
| y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 8 给两位做长线的发包子了。
Buy & Hold有什么诀窍？ | k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 9 thanks for baozi
I do not really have any specific reason to "buy & hold", simply because
I know I am a terrible trader. lol. I am new to stocks and very soon I
realized
that I am not good at playing with time. So I have been trying to dig out
undervalued junor natural resource stocks and shoot for at least a double.
My trades are mainly to rotate among different sectors and hope to ride the
momentum better. So far, I got 7 doubles since last October.
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】
: 给两位做长线的发包子了。
: Buy & Hold有什么诀窍？
| y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | | | | m*********n
发帖数: 6098 | 11 wow
what is the next one?
the
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: thanks for baozi
: I do not really have any specific reason to "buy & hold", simply because
: I know I am a terrible trader. lol. I am new to stocks and very soon I
: realized
: that I am not good at playing with time. So I have been trying to dig out
: undervalued junor natural resource stocks and shoot for at least a double.
: My trades are mainly to rotate among different sectors and hope to ride the
: momentum better. So far, I got 7 doubles since last October.
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 12 Minemaker made a nice run in ASX
same goes to my favoriate energy stock, Sundance
a switch from SSN to Sundance proved a nice one
I also observed that ASX stocks move much slower than their peers in north
America. In fertilizer stocks, Minemakers is underperforming its peers
like AAA.V AMZ.V and BOE.V quite a bit, not to mention the wild card, PPI.V.
But it may be a better value now.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: thanks for baozi
: I do not really have any specific reason to "buy & hold", simply because
: I know I am a terrible trader. lol. I am new to stocks and very soon I
: realized
: that I am not good at playing with time. So I have been trying to dig out
: undervalued junor natural resource stocks and shoot for at least a double.
: My trades are mainly to rotate among different sectors and hope to ride the
: momentum better. So far, I got 7 doubles since last October.
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 13 Kafen,
for Sundance, which one is the main factor, oil or gas?
was the run-up mainly due to the leverage on oil/gas rally?
Thanks.
BTW, big sell-off in miners just now, not sure exactly why.
V.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: Minemaker made a nice run in ASX
: same goes to my favoriate energy stock, Sundance
: a switch from SSN to Sundance proved a nice one
:
: I also observed that ASX stocks move much slower than their peers in north
: America. In fertilizer stocks, Minemakers is underperforming its peers
: like AAA.V AMZ.V and BOE.V quite a bit, not to mention the wild card, PPI.V.
: But it may be a better value now.
| f******r
发帖数: 3363 | | k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 15 90% oil for sundance
similar to SSN, its a shale play, so lower cost than off-shore and oil sand
KOG is another stock traded in AMEX
this sector has been hot for a while
Both SSN and Sundance have a large reserve of assets with rich oil
fields that they can drill from. They both have a lot cash in hand
and no debt.
They are similar to exploers in Gold/Silver plays, with more leverage than
miners but less affected by the commodity price in short term
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】
: Kafen,
: for Sundance, which one is the main factor, oil or gas?
: was the run-up mainly due to the leverage on oil/gas rally?
: Thanks.
: BTW, big sell-off in miners just now, not sure exactly why.
:
: V.
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 16 great, thanks a lot, Kafen.
I will get into this sector on a dip since I am short on dry powder now.
The overall stock market is much stronger than I expected, however, need to
have some dry powder for a correction.
sand
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: 90% oil for sundance
: similar to SSN, its a shale play, so lower cost than off-shore and oil sand
: KOG is another stock traded in AMEX
: this sector has been hot for a while
: Both SSN and Sundance have a large reserve of assets with rich oil
: fields that they can drill from. They both have a lot cash in hand
: and no debt.
: They are similar to exploers in Gold/Silver plays, with more leverage than
: miners but less affected by the commodity price in short term
| y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 17 ASX牛,SSN猛,可以做短线。
那几个AV都翻了好几倍，厉害，mark了。
V.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: Minemaker made a nice run in ASX
: same goes to my favoriate energy stock, Sundance
: a switch from SSN to Sundance proved a nice one
:
: I also observed that ASX stocks move much slower than their peers in north
: America. In fertilizer stocks, Minemakers is underperforming its peers
: like AAA.V AMZ.V and BOE.V quite a bit, not to mention the wild card, PPI.V.
: But it may be a better value now.
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 18 I own AAA.V. This is the best fertilzier play IMO
large and shallow deposit. it can use Africa's natural weather to dry
solutions so mining cost is very low
rumor says BHP has been talking with them after the failure with POT
It got a fat finger today. very strange session with huge volumn
their CEO will be on TV tomorrow. Let's see what happens.
I looked at PPI.V a couple months ago but passed it. was not very sure
about its projects. kicking myself now for the miss
For traders, better to get an Etrade account. Pinks are almost impossible
to trade.
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】
: ASX牛,SSN猛,可以做短线。
: 那几个AV都翻了好几倍，厉害，mark了。
:
: V.
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 19 Etrade cheaper than fidelity in trading international stocks?
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I own AAA.V. This is the best fertilzier play IMO
: large and shallow deposit. it can use Africa's natural weather to dry
: solutions so mining cost is very low
: rumor says BHP has been talking with them after the failure with POT
: It got a fat finger today. very strange session with huge volumn
: their CEO will be on TV tomorrow. Let's see what happens.
: I looked at PPI.V a couple months ago but passed it. was not very sure
: about its projects. kicking myself now for the miss
: For traders, better to get an Etrade account. Pinks are almost impossible
: to trade.
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 20 the same
requirement is lower in Etrade for small frogs like me
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】
: Etrade cheaper than fidelity in trading international stocks?
| | | y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 21 AAA.V PPI.V 不是主席的菜吗? 拉得太高要回调了。
农业股如果做长期的话，你推荐什么？POT MON MOS。。。还有中概的YONG怎么样？
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I own AAA.V. This is the best fertilzier play IMO
: large and shallow deposit. it can use Africa's natural weather to dry
: solutions so mining cost is very low
: rumor says BHP has been talking with them after the failure with POT
: It got a fat finger today. very strange session with huge volumn
: their CEO will be on TV tomorrow. Let's see what happens.
: I looked at PPI.V a couple months ago but passed it. was not very sure
: about its projects. kicking myself now for the miss
: For traders, better to get an Etrade account. Pinks are almost impossible
: to trade.
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 22 AGU VT.to ADM are my picks in that order for large cap
TITN is a good play too focusing on agriculture machines
ANDE just broke out with very good ER
these 2 are mid cap
I dont want to play with zhonggai, did not get luck with SEED last year
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】
: AAA.V PPI.V 不是主席的菜吗? 拉得太高要回调了。
: 农业股如果做长期的话，你推荐什么？POT MON MOS。。。还有中概的YONG怎么样？
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 23 I had yong some time ago
It didn't work for me
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】
: AAA.V PPI.V 不是主席的菜吗? 拉得太高要回调了。
: 农业股如果做长期的话，你推荐什么？POT MON MOS。。。还有中概的YONG怎么样？
| f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | | f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 25 UP in pre-market.
The Long Case for Avalon Rare Metals
2 comments | by: Michael Filloon February 08, 2011 |
about: ARAFF.PK / AVL / MCP / QSURD.PK / REE
Rare Earth Elements or REEs seem to be the newest big mover on Wall Street.
Although most have heard of them, they do not know what their use is. The
best way to identify them is by going back to chemistry class and looking at
a periodic table. Here is an easier introduction.
Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL) has seen a large appreciation of market cap
over the past year, but this may just be the beginning. Avalon has a well
diversified set of rare earth holdings. All of their projects are 100% owned
.
The Thor Lake holding is delineated into two separate mines. Nechalacho has
several heavy rare earths such as tantalum, niobium, zirconium, haffnium,
and gallium. The North deposit contains berylium, lithium, gallium and
niobium. Separation Rapids has lithium. Lilypad Lakes has tantalum. Warren
Township has anorthosite and East Kemptville has tin-indium.
Avalon's Thor Lake deposit at Nechalacho had a positive prefeasibility study
done in 2010. The company has invested $27 million Canadian since 2005. The
bankable feasibility is underway and is fully financed. This should be
completed by 2012. This large resource could be quite profitable as it has a
20%-28% heavy earths. Recovery process at bench scale, with pilot plant in
progress. Production start up is planned for 2015.
When comparing the Nechalacho to other areas with large concentrations of
rare earths, we see a very large concentration of the heavy rare earths. Mt.
Weld in Australia, Mountain Pass in USA, and Nolans in Australia all show a
much smaller concentration of heavy rare earth elements. Heavies constitute
22.2% of rare earths in Nechalacho as opposed to the high of 3.13% at
Nolans to the low of .39% at Mountain Pass. Although this gives a limited
comparison, it shows the heavy rare earths are in much more limited supply.
Interestingly there has been a much larger demand for rare earths over the
past few years, and nothing shows it slowing down. At the same time China
has begun to decrease exports. Export quotas will be reduced by 35% in the
first half of this year. There has also been an increase in media coverage
for this group. The REE groups have benefited by posting a 300% increase in
2010. Molycorp (MCP) has done a great job of attracting media coverage and
with is has seen a large jump in share appreciation. Molycorp's magnet alloy
joint venture with Hitachi Metals also added investor interest. The company
also announced expansion plans to 40000 tpa TREO and new equity finance.
Looking at Chinese REE exports from 1990 to 2011, show a decrease in overall
exports, but a very large jump in the value of those exports. It shows
price increases of REEs.
As of January 19th of 2011, MetalPages.com listed the prices of these rare
earths:
Light Rare Earths
Lanthanum Oxide 99% min- $61-$63/kg (Rechargeable Batteries)
Cerium Oxide 99% min- $66-$68/kg (Catalyst, glass, polishing)
Praseodymiun 99% min- $89-$92/kg (magnets, glass colorant)
neodymium 99% min-$89.50-$92.50/kg (magnets, lasers, glass)
samarium 99% min-$54-$55/kg (magnets, lighting, lasers)
Heavy Rare Earths
Europium Oxide 99% min- $620-$640 (TV Colour Phosphors: red)
Terbium Oxide 99% min-$610-$630 (Phosphors: Green, magnets)
Dysprosium Oxide 99% min- $285-$305 (Magnets, Lasers)
Gadolinium Oxide 99% min- $53-$56 (Magnets, Superconductors)
Yttrium Oxide 99.999% min- $72-$77 (Phosphors, Ceramics, Lasers)
Two of the REEs listed are of particular interest. Pricing with respect to
dysprosium and neodymium has been quite bullish since December of 2009.
Dysprosium is up over 300% and neodymium is up approximately 500% over this
time frame. Demand is up significantly with many of the REEs, and this
demand should continue for some time.
Magnets and electric motors or Neo magnets allow for a reduced electric
motor/generator size and weight. This improves motor efficiency. Examples
broken down by amount of REE used are:
Electronics- use small amounts (grams)
Hybrid electric cars- use one to two kilograms
Industrial air conditioners- use on average 500 kg
Wind turbines- use .6-1.0 tonne/MW
MRI machines- use 1-3 tonnes
It is safe to say, that some of the rare earths could see dramatic price
increases. When looking at the cost savings with respect to reduced power
consumption (up to 50%), and decreased size, consumers will be willing to
pay higher prices for these advantages. 30% of these magnets are made from
neodymium metal. Dysprosium and terbium make magnets heat resistant, which
is becoming much more important in automotive applications. Many of the
heavy rare earths are used in energy efficient lighting and display screens.
A good example of production need are wind turbines. GE produces a 4 MW
model that uses 2 to 3 tonnes of neo magnets. GE has additional plans to
begin producing a 10 MW model.
Nechalacho is now the third largest deposit in the world with respect to
niobium. It is used in high strength, low alloy steels. Use of this type of
steel is expected to double in a the next few years. Bridge and ship
building create demand. Niobium is just starting to be used in automobiles
and the weight decrease increases fuel efficiency. $9 of niobium creates
fuel savings of one litre every 100 kilometers.
Most zirconium production comes form zircon sands in Australia and South
Africa. China currently imports zircon sands and is the only producer of
zirconium oxychloride. This is needed to produce Zr rated metal. Consumption
is increasing. It is used in nuclear reactor builds.
The Nechalacho mine will eventually produce 2000 tonnes per day, although it
is expected to initially be a lower rate. Production of 10000 tpa mixed REE
oxides for separation elsewhere. The market captures less than 5% of
estimated 2014 total rare earth oxide global demand. Operating costs are
estimated to be $267 per tonne. Cap ex estimate is $900 million for
Nechalacho.
Currently there are no large scale rare earth separation capabilities
outside of China. Building a 25000 tpa HREE plant would have an estimated
cap ex of C$345 million. Sites are being reviewed for possible build.
The best way to determine if Avalon is a good investment is through
comparison to other companies in the REE market. Avalon (AVL) has a market
cap of 633 million; it has 4.298 million tons of TREO, which values their
rare earth oxide at $147 per tonne. Arafura (ARAFF.PK) had a market cap of $
390 million; it has .84 ton of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at
$464 per ton. Quest Rare MInerals (QSURD.PK) has a market cap of 281 million
; it has 551 million tons of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $
511 per ton. Rare Element Resources (REE) has a market cap of 502 million;
it has .55 million of tons TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $913
per ton. Molycorp has a market cap of 4.22 billion; it has 1.395 million
tons of TREO, which values their rare earth oxide at $3025 per ton. It is
obvious some of these numbers are skewed as Molycorp is in the production/
expansion stage of their business and Avalon is in the development stage,
but this does not change the value of the metal in the ground, and
comparison to pears seems to show they are trading at a discount.
In Summary, REEs are an attractive trade based on the expansion of
technology with the emphasis on renewable energy. Although many of these
stocks are up an exceptional amount, this trade is somewhat like uranium.
They trade very high on the idea that companies will pay much more then
today's prices. An example is their use in steel creating a lighter car. The
$9 of niobium saves a liter of fuel ever 100 km. The savings in one
thousand km in month's driving would more then substantiate a major price
increase of niobium. If investing in the rare earths, Avalon is attractive
from two standpoints. The company has a very high concentration of heavy
rare earths. Since these are more scarce price increases will be more likely
here. Secondly, it seems to be a value when compared to REEs in the ground.
I think any of the names mentioned here are a good trade, until the current
trade ends.
Disclosure: I am long AVL. | k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 26 sold half of AVL
a close double for me
added GWG.V
AVL's underground mine may take years to be constructed
would like to get something closer to production, especially HREE
.
at
【在 f**********g 的大作中提到】
: UP in pre-market.
: The Long Case for Avalon Rare Metals
: 2 comments | by: Michael Filloon February 08, 2011 |
: about: ARAFF.PK / AVL / MCP / QSURD.PK / REE
: Rare Earth Elements or REEs seem to be the newest big mover on Wall Street.
: Although most have heard of them, they do not know what their use is. The
: best way to identify them is by going back to chemistry class and looking at
: a periodic table. Here is an easier introduction.
: Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL) has seen a large appreciation of market cap
: over the past year, but this may just be the beginning. Avalon has a well
| f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 27 Niu.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: sold half of AVL
: a close double for me
: added GWG.V
: AVL's underground mine may take years to be constructed
: would like to get something closer to production, especially HREE
:
: .
: at
| f******r
发帖数: 3363 | | f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 29 People are always greedy. Looking for 8 or 9 later. Watch tomorrow.
【在 f******r 的大作中提到】
: AVL 7.5了，大家还HOLD吗？
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 30 You must have bought it in IRA.
I am up on AVL 140%, but I hate short term returns.
I got a small slice of great western and quest yesterday, both heavy REE
the reason I bought quest is that they will be uplisting in US soon.
Alkane also have heavy REE, and cheap price too, like LYSCF.
I guess Aussies are conservative people.
I am hoping that both will start running sooner than later.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: sold half of AVL
: a close double for me
: added GWG.V
: AVL's underground mine may take years to be constructed
: would like to get something closer to production, especially HREE
:
: .
: at
| | | k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 31 I like Quest too and bought it last December before the big run up
its mine is open pit so mining cost should be lower than AVL
Long term investors like you normally outperform most traders
I wanted to hold longer like you do
but sometimes just cant resist tradings lol
unfortunately AVL is in my regular account I will have to feed uncle sam
next year from my profit.
I try to follow my decipline to sell half at a double and only let the
free shares run the rest way. In these volitilesectors, diversification
makes me feel more comfortable with my holdings.
I also observed that ASX stocks move much slower than their peers in north
America. In fertilizer stocks, Minemakers is underperforming its peers
like AAA.V AMZ.V and BOE.V quite a bit, not to mention the wild card, PPI.V.
But it may be a better value now.
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】
: You must have bought it in IRA.
: I am up on AVL 140%, but I hate short term returns.
: I got a small slice of great western and quest yesterday, both heavy REE
: the reason I bought quest is that they will be uplisting in US soon.
: Alkane also have heavy REE, and cheap price too, like LYSCF.
: I guess Aussies are conservative people.
: I am hoping that both will start running sooner than later.
| y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 32 给两位做长线的发包子了。
Buy & Hold有什么诀窍？ | k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 33 thanks for baozi
I do not really have any specific reason to "buy & hold", simply because
I know I am a terrible trader. lol. I am new to stocks and very soon I
realized
that I am not good at playing with time. So I have been trying to dig out
undervalued junor natural resource stocks and shoot for at least a double.
My trades are mainly to rotate among different sectors and hope to ride the
momentum better. So far, I got 7 doubles since last October.
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】
: 给两位做长线的发包子了。
: Buy & Hold有什么诀窍？
| y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | | m*********n
发帖数: 6098 | 35 wow
what is the next one?
the
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: thanks for baozi
: I do not really have any specific reason to "buy & hold", simply because
: I know I am a terrible trader. lol. I am new to stocks and very soon I
: realized
: that I am not good at playing with time. So I have been trying to dig out
: undervalued junor natural resource stocks and shoot for at least a double.
: My trades are mainly to rotate among different sectors and hope to ride the
: momentum better. So far, I got 7 doubles since last October.
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 36 Minemaker made a nice run in ASX
same goes to my favoriate energy stock, Sundance
a switch from SSN to Sundance proved a nice one
I also observed that ASX stocks move much slower than their peers in north
America. In fertilizer stocks, Minemakers is underperforming its peers
like AAA.V AMZ.V and BOE.V quite a bit, not to mention the wild card, PPI.V.
But it may be a better value now.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: thanks for baozi
: I do not really have any specific reason to "buy & hold", simply because
: I know I am a terrible trader. lol. I am new to stocks and very soon I
: realized
: that I am not good at playing with time. So I have been trying to dig out
: undervalued junor natural resource stocks and shoot for at least a double.
: My trades are mainly to rotate among different sectors and hope to ride the
: momentum better. So far, I got 7 doubles since last October.
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 37 Kafen,
for Sundance, which one is the main factor, oil or gas?
was the run-up mainly due to the leverage on oil/gas rally?
Thanks.
BTW, big sell-off in miners just now, not sure exactly why.
V.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: Minemaker made a nice run in ASX
: same goes to my favoriate energy stock, Sundance
: a switch from SSN to Sundance proved a nice one
:
: I also observed that ASX stocks move much slower than their peers in north
: America. In fertilizer stocks, Minemakers is underperforming its peers
: like AAA.V AMZ.V and BOE.V quite a bit, not to mention the wild card, PPI.V.
: But it may be a better value now.
| f******r
发帖数: 3363 | | k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 39 90% oil for sundance
similar to SSN, its a shale play, so lower cost than off-shore and oil sand
KOG is another stock traded in AMEX
this sector has been hot for a while
Both SSN and Sundance have a large reserve of assets with rich oil
fields that they can drill from. They both have a lot cash in hand
and no debt.
They are similar to exploers in Gold/Silver plays, with more leverage than
miners but less affected by the commodity price in short term
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】
: Kafen,
: for Sundance, which one is the main factor, oil or gas?
: was the run-up mainly due to the leverage on oil/gas rally?
: Thanks.
: BTW, big sell-off in miners just now, not sure exactly why.
:
: V.
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 40 great, thanks a lot, Kafen.
I will get into this sector on a dip since I am short on dry powder now.
The overall stock market is much stronger than I expected, however, need to
have some dry powder for a correction.
sand
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: 90% oil for sundance
: similar to SSN, its a shale play, so lower cost than off-shore and oil sand
: KOG is another stock traded in AMEX
: this sector has been hot for a while
: Both SSN and Sundance have a large reserve of assets with rich oil
: fields that they can drill from. They both have a lot cash in hand
: and no debt.
: They are similar to exploers in Gold/Silver plays, with more leverage than
: miners but less affected by the commodity price in short term
| | | y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 41 ASX牛,SSN猛,可以做短线。
那几个AV都翻了好几倍，厉害，mark了。
V.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: Minemaker made a nice run in ASX
: same goes to my favoriate energy stock, Sundance
: a switch from SSN to Sundance proved a nice one
:
: I also observed that ASX stocks move much slower than their peers in north
: America. In fertilizer stocks, Minemakers is underperforming its peers
: like AAA.V AMZ.V and BOE.V quite a bit, not to mention the wild card, PPI.V.
: But it may be a better value now.
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 42 I own AAA.V. This is the best fertilzier play IMO
large and shallow deposit. it can use Africa's natural weather to dry
solutions so mining cost is very low
rumor says BHP has been talking with them after the failure with POT
It got a fat finger today. very strange session with huge volumn
their CEO will be on TV tomorrow. Let's see what happens.
I looked at PPI.V a couple months ago but passed it. was not very sure
about its projects. kicking myself now for the miss
For traders, better to get an Etrade account. Pinks are almost impossible
to trade.
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】
: ASX牛,SSN猛,可以做短线。
: 那几个AV都翻了好几倍，厉害，mark了。
:
: V.
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 43 Etrade cheaper than fidelity in trading international stocks?
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I own AAA.V. This is the best fertilzier play IMO
: large and shallow deposit. it can use Africa's natural weather to dry
: solutions so mining cost is very low
: rumor says BHP has been talking with them after the failure with POT
: It got a fat finger today. very strange session with huge volumn
: their CEO will be on TV tomorrow. Let's see what happens.
: I looked at PPI.V a couple months ago but passed it. was not very sure
: about its projects. kicking myself now for the miss
: For traders, better to get an Etrade account. Pinks are almost impossible
: to trade.
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 44 the same
requirement is lower in Etrade for small frogs like me
【在 a********h 的大作中提到】
: Etrade cheaper than fidelity in trading international stocks?
| y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 45 AAA.V PPI.V 不是主席的菜吗? 拉得太高要回调了。
农业股如果做长期的话，你推荐什么？POT MON MOS。。。还有中概的YONG怎么样？
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I own AAA.V. This is the best fertilzier play IMO
: large and shallow deposit. it can use Africa's natural weather to dry
: solutions so mining cost is very low
: rumor says BHP has been talking with them after the failure with POT
: It got a fat finger today. very strange session with huge volumn
: their CEO will be on TV tomorrow. Let's see what happens.
: I looked at PPI.V a couple months ago but passed it. was not very sure
: about its projects. kicking myself now for the miss
: For traders, better to get an Etrade account. Pinks are almost impossible
: to trade.
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 46 AGU VT.to ADM are my picks in that order for large cap
TITN is a good play too focusing on agriculture machines
ANDE just broke out with very good ER
these 2 are mid cap
I dont want to play with zhonggai, did not get luck with SEED last year
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】
: AAA.V PPI.V 不是主席的菜吗? 拉得太高要回调了。
: 农业股如果做长期的话，你推荐什么？POT MON MOS。。。还有中概的YONG怎么样？
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 47 I had yong some time ago
It didn't work for me
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】
: AAA.V PPI.V 不是主席的菜吗? 拉得太高要回调了。
: 农业股如果做长期的话，你推荐什么？POT MON MOS。。。还有中概的YONG怎么样？
| f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | |
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