b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 1 Two scenarios discussed by mainstream wavers.
Bullish scenario is labelled in grey.
The below is the post several days ago.
Today, June 1st, 2010, we are probably entering 3(iii), the most
dreadful waterfall is beginning IF the bearish model is correct (in
green and blue).
================================================
发信人: badfish (badfish), 信区: pennystock
标 题: Re: re: 【TA讨论】5月大盘 （05/2010）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 28 12:52:12 2010, 美东)
1) BTW, FYI, the above chart is the bearish scenario:
Bearish down wave passed 1,2,3(i), now in 3(ii).
In this model, we shall see a horrifying down wave at the next 3(iii),
which would make us feel the market is collapsing. The last 30 days'
drop would be tiny mini comparing to the 3(iii).
2) However, there is a bullish scenario as well that the A correction
wave was done in a fashion of 3-wave structure (abc).
> 1175, bullish case will be more likely.
< 1040-1050, you'd better run away like hell. |
e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 2 你知不知道什么地方能吧SPX分时图给解析了，看那组股票拖累大盘？
就跟Finviz那个红色方块图差不多，但是要分时跟踪每只成分股的。
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: Two scenarios discussed by mainstream wavers.
: Bullish scenario is labelled in grey.
: The below is the post several days ago.
: Today, June 1st, 2010, we are probably entering 3(iii), the most
: dreadful waterfall is beginning IF the bearish model is correct (in
: green and blue).
: ================================================
: 发信人: badfish (badfish), 信区: pennystock
: 标 题: Re: re: 【TA讨论】5月大盘 （05/2010）
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 28 12:52:12 2010, 美东)
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 3 I personally favor the bearish count, since the down waves are more like
impulses, and up waves have signs of weakness and don't show up with a clear
5-wave structure, which happens in correction waves. |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 4
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~don't know ah...
【在 e*n 的大作中提到】
: 你知不知道什么地方能吧SPX分时图给解析了，看那组股票拖累大盘？
: 就跟Finviz那个红色方块图差不多，但是要分时跟踪每只成分股的。
|
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 5 这个咋样？
http://busystock.com/cloud/
【在 e*n 的大作中提到】
: 你知不知道什么地方能吧SPX分时图给解析了，看那组股票拖累大盘？
: 就跟Finviz那个红色方块图差不多，但是要分时跟踪每只成分股的。
|
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 6 更新一下俺滴野鸡图：
Rising wedge breakout，现在在下降通道下沿，短期可能反弹，不过大概至少要去
wedge的理论目标，测试前低 |
u*****n
发帖数: 778 | 7 深深叹口气阿，看了好多网站和blog好像再没有人看牛了吧。。。 |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 8 no good, we need laoniu to balance the bearish view. hoho
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 深深叹口气阿，看了好多网站和blog好像再没有人看牛了吧。。。
|
y***q
发帖数: 4147 | 9 老牛估计也不敢看牛了，等他割肉的时候我们就可以进了
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: no good, we need laoniu to balance the bearish view. hoho
|
u*****n
发帖数: 778 | 10 对啊师傅出来吧
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: no good, we need laoniu to balance the bearish view. hoho
|
|
|
d****7
发帖数: 2241 | 11 Great discussion, thanks. But could we at least have a small bounce tomorrow
?
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: Two scenarios discussed by mainstream wavers.
: Bullish scenario is labelled in grey.
: The below is the post several days ago.
: Today, June 1st, 2010, we are probably entering 3(iii), the most
: dreadful waterfall is beginning IF the bearish model is correct (in
: green and blue).
: ================================================
: 发信人: badfish (badfish), 信区: pennystock
: 标 题: Re: re: 【TA讨论】5月大盘 （05/2010）
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 28 12:52:12 2010, 美东)
|
M*****g
发帖数: 3145 | 12 干吗。。。你想逃跑？
tomorrow
【在 d****7 的大作中提到】
: Great discussion, thanks. But could we at least have a small bounce tomorrow
: ?
|
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 13 今天日内又是个小rising wedge，希望下午不会哗啦 |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 14 broken?
【在 f*****e 的大作中提到】
: 今天日内又是个小rising wedge，希望下午不会哗啦
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 15 forget about the counts, pay attention to the trendlines |
t*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 16 alphahorn上面的压力线trendline1080左右今天被彻底破了，虽然成交量不明
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: forget about the counts, pay attention to the trendlines
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 17 yeah, cover le
【在 t*******o 的大作中提到】
: alphahorn上面的压力线trendline1080左右今天被彻底破了，虽然成交量不明
|
p**p
发帖数: 742 | 18 明天大盘还能再涨吗？
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: yeah, cover le
|
t*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 19 把大三角先架起来了，这下行通道看起来就很吓牛。这些blog为啥没人讨论说在一个
range里面猪一阵子，比如1040-1140之间平缓波动，毕竟VIX要一直保持在30以上很难
，过去三年也只有08年底前后的时候。
市场该回到平静的大盘而不是前一段时间那样心跳癫狂了，毕近持续癫狂是要有持续的
爆炸性消息刺激了，还能有啥吓死人的消息啊？法国被降等？欧元汇率掉到1：1？投行
欺诈案？that's it. |
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 20 收最高，牛，但心里没底的是量又小了，重复5月27号？ |
|
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 21 I think the most bearish stage isn't gonna be there in next few days.
【在 f*****e 的大作中提到】
: 收最高，牛，但心里没底的是量又小了，重复5月27号？
|
u*****n
发帖数: 778 | |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 23 Bears were pondering if wave ii (direction:up) was finished
two days ago, and if the exciting wave iii was coming. However,
Today market made a new high in this wave ii, and hold very well.
Clearly, wave ii isn't finished yet, if it is in wave ii.
At this point, both bearish and bullish views are still valid.
If tomorrow, $SPX can decisively break SMA200, the odds will
favor bulls for a couple of weeks.
In even longer term, the current bearish count will not be
invalidated until $SPX break 1175, the high of bearish wave 2 (May 13th).
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 今天是十字星阿
: 谁说说大盘吧
|
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 24 逼近阻力位，有卖压显现（同样的量，看昨天涨多少，今天涨多少）。明天有job数据
，但是经过O8昨天pump，说不定已经price in，要警惕sell on news。欧元还是很弱，
对大盘也不是很有利。
如果能在200天均线以下盘几天，再一举突破均线和下降趋势线，就比较牛了；如果就
是直着上去，多半是再坐着电梯下来。
个人意见，目前最好还是不动。 |
d****7
发帖数: 2241 | 25 Great comments. Looks the $SPX did not decisively break SMA200 today. Any slim
chance for bearish people?
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: Bears were pondering if wave ii (direction:up) was finished
: two days ago, and if the exciting wave iii was coming. However,
: Today market made a new high in this wave ii, and hold very well.
: Clearly, wave ii isn't finished yet, if it is in wave ii.
: At this point, both bearish and bullish views are still valid.
: If tomorrow, $SPX can decisively break SMA200, the odds will
: favor bulls for a couple of weeks.
: In even longer term, the current bearish count will not be
: invalidated until $SPX break 1175, the high of bearish wave 2 (May 13th).
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 26 In my view, tomorrow is more important to bulls than to bears.
Bulls have got to break SMA200 tomorrow, I feel.
【在 d****7 的大作中提到】
: Great comments. Looks the $SPX did not decisively break SMA200 today. Any slim
: chance for bearish people?
|
h*****3
发帖数: 543 | 27 Cited from Elliott Wave ~ 3 June update
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
the blogger predicts that if tomorrow it gaps up with good employment news,
it's might be actually good for the bears; while if it gaps down, it could
be good for the bulls. Correct me if I read it wrong. Let's see what happens
tomorrow---a big day for both bears and bulls
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: In my view, tomorrow is more important to bulls than to bears.
: Bulls have got to break SMA200 tomorrow, I feel.
|
d****7
发帖数: 2241 | 28 I did not follow your message. In fact, I got really confused by it. Could
you please say something more of it?
,
happens
【在 h*****3 的大作中提到】
: Cited from Elliott Wave ~ 3 June update
: http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
: the blogger predicts that if tomorrow it gaps up with good employment news,
: it's might be actually good for the bears; while if it gaps down, it could
: be good for the bulls. Correct me if I read it wrong. Let's see what happens
: tomorrow---a big day for both bears and bulls
|
h*****3
发帖数: 543 | 29 The link is in my previous post, here is the link again
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
【在 d****7 的大作中提到】
: I did not follow your message. In fact, I got really confused by it. Could
: you please say something more of it?
:
: ,
: happens
|
d****7
发帖数: 2241 | 30 Thanks for the link, happy03. Do you really believe the site? Although I hope it is bearish tomorrow, in reality probably it acts like a wake-up bull. I don't think the $SPX will get under 1065 anytime soon, though I secretly wish so.
【在 h*****3 的大作中提到】
: The link is in my previous post, here is the link again
: http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
|
|
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 31 I don't quite get it. I guess it is for short term or DT?
For mid term, breaking SMA200 successfully is absolutely good for bulls.
In fact, I think bulls live or die tomorrow.
,
happens
【在 h*****3 的大作中提到】
: Cited from Elliott Wave ~ 3 June update
: http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
: the blogger predicts that if tomorrow it gaps up with good employment news,
: it's might be actually good for the bears; while if it gaps down, it could
: be good for the bulls. Correct me if I read it wrong. Let's see what happens
: tomorrow---a big day for both bears and bulls
|
h*****3
发帖数: 543 | 32 it seems bulls will die today? let's see... |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 33 I'm afriad so.
【在 h*****3 的大作中提到】
: it seems bulls will die today? let's see...
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 34 If 1175 was taken by bulls, bearish count is invalidated.
If 1040 was taken by bears, bullish count is invalidated. Collapse~~~ |
e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 35 Worst S&P Decline on Jobs Day Since 1998; Down Next Week?
Posted by Tiernan Ray
Today was the worst decline on record going back to 1998 for the Standard &
Poor’s 500 following a monthly jobs report, observe our friends at Bespoke
Investment Group this afternoon.
The S&P fell 38 points, or 3.44%, to close at 1,064.88.
According to Bespoke’s data, on a day when the S&P falls following a jobs
report, whether the report was better or worse than expected, the average
return on the S&P the following week is a decline of 0.75%.
But take heart: the average gain in the month following the jobs day decline
is 1.19%!
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/?mod=BOL_hpp_stw
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: Two scenarios discussed by mainstream wavers.
: Bullish scenario is labelled in grey.
: The below is the post several days ago.
: Today, June 1st, 2010, we are probably entering 3(iii), the most
: dreadful waterfall is beginning IF the bearish model is correct (in
: green and blue).
: ================================================
: 发信人: badfish (badfish), 信区: pennystock
: 标 题: Re: re: 【TA讨论】5月大盘 （05/2010）
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 28 12:52:12 2010, 美东)
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 36 a leading diagonal count orginally proposed by alphahorn is getting more and
more attention:
This count is more aligned with your view, and $NYMO will form a postive
divergence at the bottome.
another count is the bearish count in the first post.
either one points to a new low.
&
Bespoke
decline
【在 e*n 的大作中提到】
: Worst S&P Decline on Jobs Day Since 1998; Down Next Week?
: Posted by Tiernan Ray
: Today was the worst decline on record going back to 1998 for the Standard &
: Poor’s 500 following a monthly jobs report, observe our friends at Bespoke
: Investment Group this afternoon.
: The S&P fell 38 points, or 3.44%, to close at 1,064.88.
: According to Bespoke’s data, on a day when the S&P falls following a jobs
: report, whether the report was better or worse than expected, the average
: return on the S&P the following week is a decline of 0.75%.
: But take heart: the average gain in the month following the jobs day decline
|
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 37 30分钟图上不论是double top还是rising wedge下破，理论目标都还没到。
日线图上
（1）光头光脚的大红棒棒，略微放量，象这种大棒棒，大部分情况下是还没到底；
（2）看起来有点熊旗的形状；
（3）周五的大跌把BB的下沿顶开，也是bearish的信号；
（4）量在缩，说明下跌动能有减弱的迹象，不过要反转可能还不是一天两天的事。
and
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: a leading diagonal count orginally proposed by alphahorn is getting more and
: more attention:
: This count is more aligned with your view, and $NYMO will form a postive
: divergence at the bottome.
: another count is the bearish count in the first post.
: either one points to a new low.
:
: &
: Bespoke
: decline
|
n*****4
发帖数: 228 | 38 顶一下。
【在 f*****e 的大作中提到】
: 30分钟图上不论是double top还是rising wedge下破，理论目标都还没到。
: 日线图上
: （1）光头光脚的大红棒棒，略微放量，象这种大棒棒，大部分情况下是还没到底；
: （2）看起来有点熊旗的形状；
: （3）周五的大跌把BB的下沿顶开，也是bearish的信号；
: （4）量在缩，说明下跌动能有减弱的迹象，不过要反转可能还不是一天两天的事。
:
: and
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 39 because today SPX almost made a new low, $RUT made a new low,
more importantly, because there are clearly more than 3 waves
since April high,the ABC bullish count is very close to be INVALIDATED.
Only two major bearish counts left. Alphahorn's count is the
best news for bulls. Even so, a new low is predicted.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TA7T2lzkvdI/AAAAAAAAFqg/Z2FAgYhYU04/s1600/
spxdaily.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-p17nqJfPI8/TA6vmWllfpI/AAAAAAAAB0I/YzGX87qbWBA/s1600/
spx+60.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TA6igoiYM9I/AAAAAAAACjo/Gh8kyaawQA8/s1600/
spx-8-4.png |
d****7
发帖数: 2241 | 40 Frightening and redoubtable indeed if two major bearish strikes come as
predicted . Hopefully, the new low will not happen in next 2 days.
Thanks for the post, badfish.
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: because today SPX almost made a new low, $RUT made a new low,
: more importantly, because there are clearly more than 3 waves
: since April high,the ABC bullish count is very close to be INVALIDATED.
: Only two major bearish counts left. Alphahorn's count is the
: best news for bulls. Even so, a new low is predicted.
: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TA7T2lzkvdI/AAAAAAAAFqg/Z2FAgYhYU04/s1600/
: spxdaily.png
: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_-p17nqJfPI8/TA6vmWllfpI/AAAAAAAAB0I/YzGX87qbWBA/s1600/
: spx+60.png
: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TA6igoiYM9I/AAAAAAAACjo/Gh8kyaawQA8/s1600/
|
|
|
m*****t
发帖数: 257 | 41 So far the target is spx 1000 (-18% from top) ? |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 42 don't know the target... the leading diagonal is correct as long as
there is a new low.
The real bottom for this round should be where a capitulation occurs, I
think.
The volume is just so so at the bottom, no panic sellings. In addition, just
read through some posts of our neighbors, I sense there are still some
bullish sentiment. No capitulation occurs at this point in my view.
【在 m*****t 的大作中提到】
: So far the target is spx 1000 (-18% from top) ?
|
e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 43 以你的经验看，需要SPX要放多大量才合适?
1.5x?
just
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: don't know the target... the leading diagonal is correct as long as
: there is a new low.
: The real bottom for this round should be where a capitulation occurs, I
: think.
: The volume is just so so at the bottom, no panic sellings. In addition, just
: read through some posts of our neighbors, I sense there are still some
: bullish sentiment. No capitulation occurs at this point in my view.
|
S******t
发帖数: 8388 | 44 现在开起来有点象falling wedge. 昨天底点的大量不可忽视. |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 45 So far, the both bearish counts accurately predicted today's market.
Nothing new to add for today. Wave iii at some degree(in Wave 3 or 5)
is happening.
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: don't know the target... the leading diagonal is correct as long as
: there is a new low.
: The real bottom for this round should be where a capitulation occurs, I
: think.
: The volume is just so so at the bottom, no panic sellings. In addition, just
: read through some posts of our neighbors, I sense there are still some
: bullish sentiment. No capitulation occurs at this point in my view.
|
m*****t
发帖数: 257 | 46 多谢坏鱼的分析，现在彻底看熊了。 打算等1020再慢慢建仓。 |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 47 Just let you know, this time, the primary count I choose is
alphahorn's leading diagonal. It predicts there will be a series
impulse down, but they belong to wave 5, the end of this round.
It is more consistent with other TA indicators telling there are
quite a few positive divergence, such as RSI, MACD.
【在 m*****t 的大作中提到】
: 多谢坏鱼的分析，现在彻底看熊了。 打算等1020再慢慢建仓。
|
n**********6
发帖数: 558 | 48 我靠！你这头引颈长啸的熊真TMD有气势！
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: Just let you know, this time, the primary count I choose is
: alphahorn's leading diagonal. It predicts there will be a series
: impulse down, but they belong to wave 5, the end of this round.
: It is more consistent with other TA indicators telling there are
: quite a few positive divergence, such as RSI, MACD.
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 49 hehe, I'm looking for an image showing a bear disguised as a bull.
since after this round, I'll join those bulls, hoho.
【在 n**********6 的大作中提到】
: 我靠！你这头引颈长啸的熊真TMD有气势！
|
q**6
发帖数: 513 | |
|
|
m*****t
发帖数: 257 | 51 多谢，长期是牛就不怕。 我这几天打算休息休息，养精蓄锐准备buy dip
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: Just let you know, this time, the primary count I choose is
: alphahorn's leading diagonal. It predicts there will be a series
: impulse down, but they belong to wave 5, the end of this round.
: It is more consistent with other TA indicators telling there are
: quite a few positive divergence, such as RSI, MACD.
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 52 哦，alphahorn的模型是短期中熊，长期大熊。在他眼里，从4月高点以来，这总共才算
第1波。
anyway，我time frame就是一个礼拜。 先不管那么多，即使大熊，
等这次牛牛无条件投降后，也有第2波可以long.
【在 m*****t 的大作中提到】
: 多谢，长期是牛就不怕。 我这几天打算休息休息，养精蓄锐准备buy dip
|
y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 53 现在是第1波第5小波？感觉到底要反弹了。
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: 哦，alphahorn的模型是短期中熊，长期大熊。在他眼里，从4月高点以来，这总共才算
: 第1波。
: anyway，我time frame就是一个礼拜。 先不管那么多，即使大熊，
: 等这次牛牛无条件投降后，也有第2波可以long.
|
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 54 过去这三天和上个月25号到27号很像哈，先底部反转，再顶部反转，再无量大涨
【在 m*****t 的大作中提到】
: 多谢，长期是牛就不怕。 我这几天打算休息休息，养精蓄锐准备buy dip
|
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 55 再来一张小时图，下降三角
【在 f*****e 的大作中提到】
: 过去这三天和上个月25号到27号很像哈，先底部反转，再顶部反转，再无量大涨
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 56 I'll stop out my TZA if the decending trendline is broken, about 1085-1095.
Otherwise, it is still a sort of wave 2, in a double zip-zag form. abc-x-abc.
Yesterday's drop is "x" |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 57 If the $SPX goes up > 1105, the both bearish counts are invalidated,
although
the bearish trend is not over for sure. If $SPX can hold above SMA200=1107,
I may start to long a little.
abc.
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: I'll stop out my TZA if the decending trendline is broken, about 1085-1095.
: Otherwise, it is still a sort of wave 2, in a double zip-zag form. abc-x-abc.
: Yesterday's drop is "x"
|
e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 58 头像太让人不安了。
1107,
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: If the $SPX goes up > 1105, the both bearish counts are invalidated,
: although
: the bearish trend is not over for sure. If $SPX can hold above SMA200=1107,
: I may start to long a little.
:
: abc.
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 59 looks like it's gonna touch the "c" around 1090 before tomorrow noon. |
d****7
发帖数: 2241 | 60 badfish: Just hope your bearish wave can hold on for 2 more days. I am
satisfied if $SPX can reach 1100 by next week.
BTW, why does it increase so much today?
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: looks like it's gonna touch the "c" around 1090 before tomorrow noon.
|
|
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 61 ......
if my bearish count holds, tomorrow a waterfall is due.
the abc-x-abc deadcat bounce should be finished by tomorrow noon.
actually now it looks almost finished.
【在 d****7 的大作中提到】
: badfish: Just hope your bearish wave can hold on for 2 more days. I am
: satisfied if $SPX can reach 1100 by next week.
: BTW, why does it increase so much today?
|
e*n
发帖数: 1511 | 62 CoolMAX向牛哥靠拢【转载】：
前一阵子，搞了个牛市大2浪的系列帖子，从目前的形势发展来看，继续那个帖子，可
能已经不合宜了，原因也很简单，大2浪很大可能已经结束了。
所以重新开个新帖子。
旧贴见这里：
『中期看法 牛市大2浪系列』
基本看法：
1， 大2浪的ABC三浪非常清楚，大1浪是五浪结构，所以大2浪走三子浪合乎逻辑。无论
从幅度看，还是时间跨度看，都足够。这次回调，幅度超过2009年3月以来任何一次调
整的规模，所以是和大1浪同级的调整浪，我想这点牛熊都没有分歧。大量的底部信号
（抱歉，我就不一一例举了），后市能够重上200天均线，H&S底部确认，我们就可能在
大3浪里面了。最终确认，当然是出新高，你一定会说，那时候不是太晚了吗？这就是
风险的问题，没有风险的时候，回报当然也就不佳了。
2，如果是大3浪，是不是可以直接追高呢，我不给直接建议。其实好的买点，就那么几
个，教科书上都有，其它的点位，风险回报不是最佳，所以，功课还是要自己做，你才
明白怎样的操作才是有效率的操作。当然，这个是针对大盘而言，个股要具体情况具体
分析。大盘如此大幅回调，许多质优股反而率先创出新高。你如果还不承认经济的基本
面已经改善，我也就没啥好说的了。我就等着SPX站上1228的那一天，好正式宣布熊市
结束。如果大2浪完成，其实大家也看得到，能够抓住那个针尖尖的，没有几个人。大
家不必气馁，本来这个就是高难度的动作。从操作上讲，大3浪的第三子浪，会更容易
一些。
3，大3浪还没开始，这种可能性存不存在呢，当然，大2浪如果是五浪结构，那就还差
一个五子浪，出现比1040更低的低点的可能性是存在的。不过，牛牛没啥可担心的，
101x不破，股市就是牛的步调。
我现在讲这些，是希望大家能看到一个大的Picture，每天的涨跌重不重要，当然重要
，不过看清哪个是芝麻，哪个是西瓜，更重要。
SPX日线图，一个Higher low，一个higher high。是牛是熊，不用争论了吧？
短期盘面，是200天均线的争夺。鹿死谁手，让我们拭目以待。
总之，这次回调，MM操作手法凶悍，洗盘彻底，不服不行。在这里向MM致以最高敬礼！
不是想吊大家胃口，只是心里有些不成熟的想法，需要慢慢整理出来。跟大家说抱歉啊！
Happy Trading!
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: ......
: if my bearish count holds, tomorrow a waterfall is due.
: the abc-x-abc deadcat bounce should be finished by tomorrow noon.
: actually now it looks almost finished.
|
u*****n
发帖数: 778 | 63 明天要看零售数据了吧
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: ......
: if my bearish count holds, tomorrow a waterfall is due.
: the abc-x-abc deadcat bounce should be finished by tomorrow noon.
: actually now it looks almost finished.
|
m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 64 我觉得现在还是在走小双底.颈部是SPX 1105附近,正好也是200天线的位置. 如果下周
某天收盘前正好在这地方, 多头可以锁点利了. 要是站上去了, 下个高点按测量大概会
在1170附近. 我觉得真想空的话,下周二三会把握大点.
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: ......
: if my bearish count holds, tomorrow a waterfall is due.
: the abc-x-abc deadcat bounce should be finished by tomorrow noon.
: actually now it looks almost finished.
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 65 great! thanks. Does he have a chart to show the wave count? thanks.
【在 e*n 的大作中提到】
: CoolMAX向牛哥靠拢【转载】：
: 前一阵子，搞了个牛市大2浪的系列帖子，从目前的形势发展来看，继续那个帖子，可
: 能已经不合宜了，原因也很简单，大2浪很大可能已经结束了。
: 所以重新开个新帖子。
: 旧贴见这里：
: 『中期看法 牛市大2浪系列』
: 基本看法：
: 1， 大2浪的ABC三浪非常清楚，大1浪是五浪结构，所以大2浪走三子浪合乎逻辑。无论
: 从幅度看，还是时间跨度看，都足够。这次回调，幅度超过2009年3月以来任何一次调
: 整的规模，所以是和大1浪同级的调整浪，我想这点牛熊都没有分歧。大量的底部信号
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 66 agree.
【在 m*z 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得现在还是在走小双底.颈部是SPX 1105附近,正好也是200天线的位置. 如果下周
: 某天收盘前正好在这地方, 多头可以锁点利了. 要是站上去了, 下个高点按测量大概会
: 在1170附近. 我觉得真想空的话,下周二三会把握大点.
|
m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 67 鱼兄, 报报仓位吧. 你手上同时拿着TZA和TYH, 是看跌还是墙头草啊, 给个方向吧?
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: agree.
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 68 发信人: badfish (badfish), 信区: pennystock
标 题: Re: rebounds are for bears to short, bulls to escape
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 9 15:56:31 2010, 美东)
I bet on that with 0% long, 33% short...
I haven't bought TYH. Even if the bearish counts failed, I wouldn't
go long today. |
m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 69 手上一个锅都没了,全扔了吗?
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: 发信人: badfish (badfish), 信区: pennystock
: 标 题: Re: rebounds are for bears to short, bulls to escape
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 9 15:56:31 2010, 美东)
: I bet on that with 0% long, 33% short...
:
: I haven't bought TYH. Even if the bearish counts failed, I wouldn't
: go long today.
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 70
I don't go long in a bearish trend...
【在 m*z 的大作中提到】
: 手上一个锅都没了,全扔了吗?
|
|
|
s*********y
发帖数: 209 | 71 坏鱼呀，
你这个熊trend,你是从什么时候开始做空的呀？4月底？
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
:
: I don't go long in a bearish trend...
|
m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 72 我查了一下我的的邮箱, 坏鱼是三月中开始做小熊的.
【在 s*********y 的大作中提到】
: 坏鱼呀，
: 你这个熊trend,你是从什么时候开始做空的呀？4月底？
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 73 on and off with small portion, and a little longs as well.
but went short since the end of April with 50% portafolio, hehe,
【在 m*z 的大作中提到】
: 我查了一下我的的邮箱, 坏鱼是三月中开始做小熊的.
|
s*********y
发帖数: 209 | |
m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 75 买反指ETF的都是小熊,假熊, 随时就能把熊皮扒了换牛皮. 嗯!
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: on and off with small portion, and a little longs as well.
: but went short since the end of April with 50% portafolio, hehe,
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 76 well, I shorted TZA and VXX at the last lowest point.
just check the [TA] thread in may...
【在 m*z 的大作中提到】
: 买反指ETF的都是小熊,假熊, 随时就能把熊皮扒了换牛皮. 嗯!
|
S******t
发帖数: 8388 | 77 下周二三是什么日子?
【在 m*z 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得现在还是在走小双底.颈部是SPX 1105附近,正好也是200天线的位置. 如果下周
: 某天收盘前正好在这地方, 多头可以锁点利了. 要是站上去了, 下个高点按测量大概会
: 在1170附近. 我觉得真想空的话,下周二三会把握大点.
|
f******e
发帖数: 6488 | |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 79 这主题也不是我专有的。你们要感兴趣可以接着盖。
1040是牛牛的悬崖边，1175是熊熊的悬崖边。1110或200日均线是中间。200日均线
被牛牛破了，这两天buy on dip，已经2/3仓了。都是3xETF。
我现在没有精力做短线了，主要做mid-term trend. 2-3个礼拜，打算今年每个mid-
term
trend能挣到钱就可以。没精力中间倒腾小trend了，睡懒觉倒腾了几次还被两面抽。不
玩了。
【在 f******e 的大作中提到】
: 最近没更新啊
: 那个FA的也是
|
y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 80 中期看法 牛市大2浪系列
SPX在距1228.74不到10个点处止步。开始了大幅回调。
从回调的幅度看，基本上可以确定大1浪完成了，1219就是大1浪的终点。
基于这个判断，目前是在大2浪中，先假设大2浪走ABC的形态，目前看A也差不多了。前
期的1145-1150的高度，是一个重要的支撑区域。另外，很多指标也显示目前超卖的程
度非常严重了。有反弹的需要。
这个反弹，上去完成B浪，然后顺势调整去测试200天均线。
乐观的估计，是从200天均线开始反弹，走大3浪。这是最容易的走法。
悲观的估计，是刺破200天均线，造成恐慌，然后在200天均线上下拉锯，最终牛牛获胜
。但是列车开动的时候，车上的牛牛已经为数不多了。
http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=80991&page=1&extra=
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: great! thanks. Does he have a chart to show the wave count? thanks.
|
|
|
y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | |
y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 82 转贴老蛇
06/17/2010 After Bell Quick Summary
Remember the Extreme High NYMO Reading Chart I show you in the yesterday’s
After Bell Quick Summary? Here is the most recently chart, even more similar
to the January high 2009 market by blue cycle? Well, for fun only, as from
my experiences similarity seldom works.
I’m a little little little bit bearish toward tomorrow, the reason, when SPX up while TNX down 2.8%, short at today’s close and cover at tomorrow’s close, you’ll have 65% chances.
As for the seasonality, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, June Triple Witching Day, Dow up 4 of last 6. But the next week is not so bull friendly though – Week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 10 in a row and 17 of last 19.
http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=84860&extra=page%3D1%26amp%3Bfilter%3Dtype%26amp%3Btypeid%3D7 |
y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 83 6/4 五浪ABC 这个大家画得都差不多
【在 e*n 的大作中提到】
: CoolMAX向牛哥靠拢【转载】：
: 前一阵子，搞了个牛市大2浪的系列帖子，从目前的形势发展来看，继续那个帖子，可
: 能已经不合宜了，原因也很简单，大2浪很大可能已经结束了。
: 所以重新开个新帖子。
: 旧贴见这里：
: 『中期看法 牛市大2浪系列』
: 基本看法：
: 1， 大2浪的ABC三浪非常清楚，大1浪是五浪结构，所以大2浪走三子浪合乎逻辑。无论
: 从幅度看，还是时间跨度看，都足够。这次回调，幅度超过2009年3月以来任何一次调
: 整的规模，所以是和大1浪同级的调整浪，我想这点牛熊都没有分歧。大量的底部信号
|
u*****n
发帖数: 778 | 84 http://www.capitalessence.com/blog/2010/06/22/mo_cn_100622/
目前最重要的一点是关注对1105点附近支撑的测试，收盘跌破这一位置将触发大规模抛
盘，并最终将指数打压至1040点附近的下一个支撑位，即5-6月低点。阻力位在1133点
，收盘站上这一位置将使得短期趋势转涨并增加测试1150点附近的下一个阻力位的概率。
总结：周一的空头反转走势意味着6月份的反弹行情宣告终结。抛盘很有可能得到加速
，不过要抹掉短期上升趋势，还需幅度深得多的下跌。 |
u*****n
发帖数: 778 | |
d****7
发帖数: 2241 | 86 Thanks for sharing, urqueen.
What I don't understand is, these days the financial sector lags much behind
other sectors. The big MMs are still not actively participating.
率。
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: http://www.capitalessence.com/blog/2010/06/22/mo_cn_100622/
: 目前最重要的一点是关注对1105点附近支撑的测试，收盘跌破这一位置将触发大规模抛
: 盘，并最终将指数打压至1040点附近的下一个支撑位，即5-6月低点。阻力位在1133点
: ，收盘站上这一位置将使得短期趋势转涨并增加测试1150点附近的下一个阻力位的概率。
: 总结：周一的空头反转走势意味着6月份的反弹行情宣告终结。抛盘很有可能得到加速
: ，不过要抹掉短期上升趋势，还需幅度深得多的下跌。
|
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 87 上张野鸡图
个人觉得，没有反弹直奔1040的可能性比较小，除非有很坏的消息出来。但是，反弹的
力度很难说，就算是破了wedge的上沿，也很可能没法突破前高，从而形成新的下降通
道。当然，也不能排除突破wedge然后一飞冲天的可能性，所以要作N手准备。嗯，一堆
废话，说了等于没说，hoho |
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 88 no update? hehe, don't you guy realize the importance of da pan?
and the predictive power of elliot wave? |
g***y
发帖数: 1025 | 89 俺们都不会数浪，所以你要常来啊，LOL
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: no update? hehe, don't you guy realize the importance of da pan?
: and the predictive power of elliot wave?
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 90 sigh, just follow the blogs I listed in the first post of last month.
but it needs hard work to summarize their views and arguments, and make
your own choice ...
【在 g***y 的大作中提到】
: 俺们都不会数浪，所以你要常来啊，LOL
|
|
|
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 91 是啊，数波波太麻烦了，还是画道道简单
今天头肩顶初具规模了啊，死皮和纳斯达克都算破了吧，RUT还挺着没出新低 |
f*****e
发帖数: 94 | 92 又见野鸡图
【在 f*****e 的大作中提到】
: 是啊，数波波太麻烦了，还是画道道简单
: 今天头肩顶初具规模了啊，死皮和纳斯达克都算破了吧，RUT还挺着没出新低
|
b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 93 The primary counts are bearish in various form.
Briefly, from April high to June low is the big Wave 1
after Wave 2 up, we are now in Wave 3.
And it's probably just the beginning or middle of Wave3, since Wave3
is often more serious than Wave 1. |
N***i
发帖数: 2063 | 94 那看来我输错了，我数成wave2了. fat finger那个也算的话，现在是wave 3了，下面
是9000那附近了，我想知道3波走完一般会怎么走？
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: The primary counts are bearish in various form.
: Briefly, from April high to June low is the big Wave 1
: after Wave 2 up, we are now in Wave 3.
: And it's probably just the beginning or middle of Wave3, since Wave3
: is often more serious than Wave 1.
|
L********l
发帖数: 575 | 95 请问第三波一般多久？
【在 N***i 的大作中提到】
: 那看来我输错了，我数成wave2了. fat finger那个也算的话，现在是wave 3了，下面
: 是9000那附近了，我想知道3波走完一般会怎么走？
|
N***i
发帖数: 2063 | 96 这个不好说，我也在学习阶段，才刚刚开始学习. 这个波段一般是最久最暴力的, 和上
升波的第三波相似.
其实你看看四月底到现在的djia，lower highs and lower lows, 每次反弹都不过上次
的高点，和阻力位. 如果这样都还否定目前的熊市的话，我作为little teddy bear,我
就不说啥了.
如果看不清楚，你可以看看前面的上升波，higher lows and higher highs. 明显不同的
【在 L********l 的大作中提到】
: 请问第三波一般多久？
|
u*****n
发帖数: 778 | 97 却是这样 关建这是回调还是熊市的确立 就看下周了在不长就真的不妙了
同的
【在 N***i 的大作中提到】
: 这个不好说，我也在学习阶段，才刚刚开始学习. 这个波段一般是最久最暴力的, 和上
: 升波的第三波相似.
: 其实你看看四月底到现在的djia，lower highs and lower lows, 每次反弹都不过上次
: 的高点，和阻力位. 如果这样都还否定目前的熊市的话，我作为little teddy bear,我
: 就不说啥了.
: 如果看不清楚，你可以看看前面的上升波，higher lows and higher highs. 明显不同的
|
N***i
发帖数: 2063 | 98 作为teddy bear,我想说的是这个是熊市确立中的反弹，所以叫回调不太确切，回调是
牛市中的暂时下跌. 反弹是下跌中的暂时上升.
我觉得这波要到9000去看看.
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 却是这样 关建这是回调还是熊市的确立 就看下周了在不长就真的不妙了
:
: 同的
|
u*****n
发帖数: 778 | 99 对我得意思也是这样 到底是熊市的反弹还是牛市的回调下周很关键了 不是开玩笑的
【在 N***i 的大作中提到】
: 作为teddy bear,我想说的是这个是熊市确立中的反弹，所以叫回调不太确切，回调是
: 牛市中的暂时下跌. 反弹是下跌中的暂时上升.
: 我觉得这波要到9000去看看.
|
