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发帖数: 558 | 1 下周出Q2 ER，具体时间还没看到有权威的公告，搞不懂。我从$5拿着至今，大家还敢
追否？
整体来说上半年美国风调雨顺，Q2肯定比Q1好，再帖上yahoo message board上的一位
哥们的分析：http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_F/threadview?m=tm&bn=27633&tid=5490&mid=5490&tof=13&frt=2
What is a proper valuation for AGM ? 29-Jul-09 11:30 am As I've
posted before, historically AGM has recieved a 10-12 PE, so why not now ?
There is really no reason at all except for the fact that skeptics likely
think AGM will start making substantially less in earnings going forward.
Here's my position. I do agree that for the ethanol portfolio risks and some
risk of additonal investment losses, the stock should be discounted- but by
how much ? Right now, the stock is being discounted huge as the PE going
forward on core operations is down to around 3, while it's normally 10-12.
So why the huge discount ?
Well for one, some think that the loan loss provisions will increase going
forward, and be a strain on earnings. Second, some are worried about more
realized losses from their investment portfolio. Third, some are concerned
about the ag sector in general slowing, thus causing higher delinquincies.
OK, so how much do we discount the stock price for all these worries, and
how much of a PE going forward should be attached ? My contention is this.
After looking at analyst outlook for ethanol going forward, that loan loss
provisions should remain constant or even decrease going forward. That other
than Sallie Mae($25M), which has less than a $1M unrealized gain attached,
I see only A-A+ ratings on their investment portfolio, so not much concern
there. On the Ag front going forward, I would say it's tough to predict. I
mean there will always be some farm sector that's doing good, while another
is having problems, so who knows. Lastly, AGM management is really on the
ball, and they recently mentioned other revenue streams coming in that will
help to counter any decrease in revenues from problem sectors.
So here's my view. I believe AGM should be given a 8-9 PE going forward at
present based on core earnings. Being that I strongly believe the company
can produce $1.75 minimum in after tax core earnings for 09, that would
culminate to a $14-$16 stock price. I also believe that if the June qtr
comes in at around $.50 or more, the stock will pop to the $10-$12 in a
heartbeat.
That's why I feel so strongly about AGMs potential. I mean, there is zero
stocks out there that I've found that trade on a major exchange, pay a
decent dividend, and that sell for a valuation 1/3 or less of normal for
fears which are unwarranted. The bottom line is, this stock was $30 only
months ago and is $5.50 now. The stock is selling with a 2.5 PE going
forward, as if another fannie/lehman/frddie is right around the corner, and
that there is still strong risk of recievership. To that I say popy@#$% !
I say this stock will double or triple within weeks assuming a decent June
qtr, and sellers are out of their minds ! Good luck,
Dalton |
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