G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 1 Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be ‘Fairly Bad’
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy is
likely to be “fairly bad” or “very bad” over the next six to nine months
.
“We see two main scenarios,” analysts led by Jan Hatzius, the New York-
based chief U.S. economist at the company, wrote in an e-mail to clients. “
A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent
rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises
moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to
an outright recession.”
The Federal Reserve will probably move to spur growth as soon as its next
meeting on Nov. 2-3, Hatzius said. Expectations for central bank action have
already led to lower interest rates, higher stock prices and a weaker
dollar, according to Goldman, one of the 18 primary dealers that are
required to bid at government debt sales.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers are debating
whether to increase Treasury purchases to spur the U.S. economy by keeping
borrowing costs low. U.S. five-year yields dropped to a record 1.1755
percent today amid signs the recovery is losing momentum.
The “fairly bad” outlook for slow growth and rising unemployment without a
recession will probably be the one that occurs, the e-mail said.
Renewed Recession
Hatzius’ note reiterated comments he made yesterday at a forum in
Washington, when he placed the odds of a renewed recession at 25 percent to
30 percent. He told reporters that was up from 15 percent to 20 percent at
the start of the year.
Another $1 trillion of asset purchases by the Fed would probably lower long-
term interest rates by about 0.25 percentage point, adding a “few tenths of
additional GDP growth,” he said yesterday.
The Fed bought $1.7 trillion worth of Treasury and mortgage debt in a
program that ended in March. The purchases helped push mortgage rates to
historic lows.
New York Fed President William Dudley, the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren and
Chicago’s Charles Evans have all advocated further Fed action. Bernanke
said Oct. 4 that restarting large- scale asset purchases would probably spur
growth, after saying last week the central bank has a duty to aid the
economy as unemployment holds near 10 percent.
Investors forecasting Fed purchases pushed two-year Treasury yields to a
record low of 0.3987 percent on Oct. 4. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
rose 2.1 percent yesterday to the highest level since May.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the
greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, slumped
0.9 percent yesterday to the lowest since January. | l******s
发帖数: 1276 | 2 新一轮吹double dip开始了。。。 在ER前先把股价打回原形。。。
months
percent
to
【在 G*********8 的大作中提到】
: Goldman Sachs Says U.S. Economy May Be ‘Fairly Bad’
: Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy is
: likely to be “fairly bad” or “very bad” over the next six to nine months
: .
: “We see two main scenarios,” analysts led by Jan Hatzius, the New York-
: based chief U.S. economist at the company, wrote in an e-mail to clients. “
: A fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent
: rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises
: moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to
: an outright recession.”
| g***y
发帖数: 1025 | | m****2
发帖数: 1504 | 4 Agree!
【在 g***y 的大作中提到】
: 这帮人真是翻手为云覆手为雨
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