n****c
发帖数: 512 | 1 The current market bears a striking resemblance to another range-bound,
election-burdened year. So how'd that one end?
SOMETIMES, A WRITER HAS TO stretch and twist to find a patch of market
history that matches up neatly with the present one. (Trust me.)
But it's become easy to draw parallels with 2004, a year that's been a
touchstone for this column for a while—a corrective, digestive, trading-
range-burdened election year, one that saw an economic slowdown from
strong levels that incited "double-dip" chatter.
How's this: On Friday, Sept. 17, 2004, the Standard & Poor's 500 index
closed at 1128, having started the year at 1111. On Friday, Sept. 17,
2010, the S&P 500 finished at 1125, having started the year at 1115. The
recent bear-market low had occurred in March of the prior year. A long,
strange round-trip, yes?
The market had been stuck in an energy-sapping range since the spring at
that point in 2004, and had made a low in mid-summer, much like this
year. Conviction was negligible, volumes were unimpressive. There was a
general feeling that election results would be market-friendly, but few
bet heavily on that in advance. Familiar?
At this point in '04, stocks had just rallied 6% from an August low, and
today they're up 7% since August. Back then, the market ran into another
pullback, dropping a few percent into late October, and then went nearly
straight up through the end of the year to close at a high.
These echoes (coincidences?) can only be taken so far, of course.
Developed-world economic growth is probably more fragile now,
governments are strapped, we're in a debt hangover versus a debt party
back then, and by this time in '04 the Federal Reserve had already
become confident enough to start taking back its recession rate cuts.
Don't hold your breath for that now.
Still, stocks are cheaper now based on reported earnings. Bond yields
are a good deal lower and investors remain in post-traumatic stress
mode, continually bracing for the next shock. (There's $2 billion
sitting in the leading exchange-traded fund that tracks market
volatility, symbol VXX.) Clues of the macro stresses that fueled the
market agita in recent months, such junk-bond spreads, copper prices and
the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index, have mostly returned to more
benign early-May levels.
This all seems to insulate the market from much more than a swift and
perfunctory pullback, until it changes. Yet a pullback is indeed looking
more likely, with the indexes at the top of the longtime ranges and
given the spurt in the AAII poll of retail-investor sentiment from
despondent to quite-bullish in a matter of a few weeks. This typically
thwarts rallies before too long—and, by the way, the surge from bearish
to bullish feeling the past four weeks was the biggest since…April 2004,
says Michael Shaoul of Oscar Gruss & Sons.
TRADERS ARE BACK TO PLAYING the game of Pick the Next Buyout Target, a
favorite pastime from the deal-making boom of a few years ago. Screens
of unusual stock-options activity have lately surfaced a steady supply
of names. (For more on this topic, see Striking Price, "Rumor-trage
Makes a Comeback.")
Credit markets are again accommodative, if not nearly as active or
pliant as they were three years ago. And the Wall Street Journal reports
that—because so much private-equity money was raised in mid-decade with
a promise to use or return it within five years—buyout funds need to
deploy some $50 billion by the end of 2011 or else hand it back to their
investors.
Typically, prospecting for potential buyout targets leads to companies
with strong balance sheets, opportunities for profit-margin improvement
and stable revenue trends. Companies such as, say, Chico's FAS (CHS).
The once over-loved and over-valued women's clothing retailer, whose
stock appears attractively priced, circumstantially seemed last week to
be in the sights of takeover speculators.
Who knows whether there's any fire producing that smoke? Would
management of a company whose shares traded above $40 about five years
ago, and at $16 this past spring, rush to sell with the stock sitting
under 10?
It almost doesn't matter. The attributes that would attract a buyer
should also help a current shareholder. There is more than $2 a share in
cash on the books, pent-up demand for women's apparel and margin
enhancements on the come.
Chico's has a goal of $1 in earnings per share for next year, which
would mean the company is trading at less than eight times next year's
earnings, excluding cash on hand. Even if that proves over-ambitious,
there's enough room between $1 and the consensus forecast of 85 cents to
imply that the Street's expectations are reassuringly muted on the
company's prospects. | b*******y
发帖数: 1455 | 2 不错，准备在10月初大捞一把
【在 n****c 的大作中提到】
: The current market bears a striking resemblance to another range-bound,
: election-burdened year. So how'd that one end?
: SOMETIMES, A WRITER HAS TO stretch and twist to find a patch of market
: history that matches up neatly with the present one. (Trust me.)
: But it's become easy to draw parallels with 2004, a year that's been a
: touchstone for this column for a while—a corrective, digestive, trading-
: range-burdened election year, one that saw an economic slowdown from
: strong levels that incited "double-dip" chatter.
: How's this: On Friday, Sept. 17, 2004, the Standard & Poor's 500 index
: closed at 1128, having started the year at 1111. On Friday, Sept. 17,
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