N***i
发帖数: 2063 | 1 http://74.53.4.74/mitbbs_postdoc.php?board=Stockcafeteria&ftype
Filed Under: Energy,Fundamental Analysis,Stocks
Tickers in this Article: APA, CVX, DVR, HERO, HLX, SPN, TTI
It looks like the U.S. government is getting serious about cleaning up the
Gulf of Mexico. In the wake of the BP (NYSE: BP) Macondo oil spill, the U.S.
government has issued an order that will require energy companies to
permanently decommission idle wells in the Gulf. Under the order, wells and
platforms that have been idle for five or more years will have to be plugged
and dismantled, and it would appear to include roughly 3,500 wells and 650
production platforms.
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To a large extent, this move makes sense. The temporary plugs that are
installed in idle wells do not last forever and can leak. Likewise, a
platform can be vulnerable to severe events, like a hurricane. While severe
damage is relatively rare (these platforms are built to withstand bad
weather), it is nevertheless possible that a bad storm could wreck a
platform and create both an oil spill risk and a hazard to navigation.
Major Gulf operators like Chevron (NYSE:CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), BP and
Apache (NYSE:APA) could all be on the hook, as well as numerous tiny
operators. Although it is not uncommon for operators to use temporary plugs
for marginal wells (particularly when prices are low), this order would
require permanent plugs that would not be removable later. Then again, given
the high prices of the past five years, if a well has been idle for all of
that time, it is not too likely that it would be coming back into
significant production. (For related reading, see A Primer On Offshore
Drilling.)
A Boon for Some Service Companies
While operators are not going to be thrilled with a multi-billion dollar
mandate from Washington, this could be a boon to many service companies.
Given the moratorium on new drilling activity in the Gulf, many of these
companies have found their business flagging. Fortunately for them, however,
a lot of the equipment used in commissioning wells and platforms is useful
in the decommissioning process as well.
That should spell business opportunities for the likes of TETRA Technologies
(NYSE:TTI), Superior Energy Services (NYSE:SPN), Cal-Dive (NYSE:DVR), Helix
Energy Services (NYSE:HLX), Global Industries (Nasdaq:GLBL), Hercules
Offshore (Nasdaq:HERO) and Technip. That list includes a wide variety of
services and technologies, ranging from well plugging to undersea robots to
liftboats, all of which are necessary for cleaning up these old platforms.
Frankly, almost all of these companies could use the boost. Through a
combination of stagnant energy prices and the drilling moratorium, these
companies have all seen analysts lower their estimates multiple times over
the past few months, and only Superior's stock is up for the past year (
though TETRA is close). Cal-Dive, Helix, Global and Hercules are all trading
at less than stated book value, and TETRA's EV/EBITDA is a puny 4.3.
The Bottom Line
This government order is not going to revolutionize anything.
Decommissioning is a normal part of business, and there have been around 150
platform removals per year for the last three years. By the same token,
this mandate could significantly boost that pace of activity and deliver
some much-needed revenue to these service companies.
As always, a list like this should simply be a starting place for due
diligence. Companies like Cal-Dive and TETRA seem intriguingly cheap, but
history has shown time and time again that this is a volatile sector and
cheap stocks can easily become even cheaper. (For more, see Understanding
Oil And Gas Terminology.)
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By Stephen Simpson
Stephen Simpson, CFA, is a freelance financial writer, investor, and
consultant. He has worked as an equity analyst for both sell-side and buy-
side investment companies in both equities and fixed income. Stephen's
consulting work has focused primarily upon the healthcare sector, while he
has also written extensively for publication on topics pertaining to
investments, security analysis, and healthcare. Simpson operates the
Kratisto Investing blog, and can be reached there. | u*****n
发帖数: 778 | | N***i
发帖数: 2063 | 3 自言自语?
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 对这些公司是利好了？
| u*****n
发帖数: 778 | 4 我怎么记得昨天那谁说是利空啊 可能我理解错了
【在 N***i 的大作中提到】
: 自言自语?
| N***i
发帖数: 2063 | 5 对于石油公司来说，应该是利空吧，毕竟要花一些钱去plug,但是service companies应
该算是利好吧,直接的收入来源，但是至于谁能得到合同，那是另外一回事
我觉得还有一个需要注意的是stec所在的行业，就是data storage，dell肯定还会寻找
并购对象的，而且这个行业因为3Par竞购而被聚集到闪光灯下,应该会再次炒作一次
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: 我怎么记得昨天那谁说是利空啊 可能我理解错了
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