j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 1 年内有望15 - 20， 我觉得挺 make sense的。这是一位同志的保守估计：
Whole schizophrenia drug market in year 2011: 12-15 Billion (expect the
whole market to shrink a bit)
VNDA market share: 5% (600M to 750M)
25% royalty to Novatis and Titan: (450M to 560M left)
each share: $16-$20
我的估计：
如果VNDA找partner的话， 还要再割10%的rev给人家， 所以只剩下65%。
Whole schizophrenia drug market in year 2011: 12-15 Billion (expect the
whole market to shrink a bit)
VNDA market share: 5% (600M to 750M)
25% royalty to Novatis and Titan: (450M to 560M left)
1 |
j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 2 Pennbrook wrote on 05/22/09:
VNDA has been consolidating for the past two weeks between $10-12.5 after
having run up 1000% after the FDA granted approval for Fanapt™ for the
acute treatment of adult patients with schizophrenia. Upon further review,
VNDA’s strength may be attributed to Wednesday’s upgrade by Natixis
Bleichroeder analyst Corey Davis, who raised his target from $12 to $22.
Davis is the only analyst still following VNDA, so his opinion is
particularly relevant. In his opinion, |
j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 3 Morning Star:
Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. VNDA
Analyst Picture by Lauren Migliore
Thesis 05-22-2009
Following a nonapprovable letter from the Food and Drug
Administration, antischizophrenia drug Fanapt came back from the dead
to win marketing approval. Although Vanda will have to face off
against well-entrenched competitors in the antipsychotic market, we
think Fanapt's surprise approval has resurrected Vanda's chances of
gaining profitability.
Vanda Pharmaceuticals has followed an atypical path |
q*********u
发帖数: 9501 | 4 这个可不是头肩型的pattern，12以上是买点，13以上是加码的地方。
当然强阻力是15。 |
j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | |
q*********u
发帖数: 9501 | 6 对于这个股票的基本面你有信心的话，应该这么做，MM在内太强了。
【在 j*****7 的大作中提到】
: 今天要是带量收在＞１２块的地方就加仓吗？
|
m*****u
发帖数: 189 | 7 13+ le...
【在 q*********u 的大作中提到】
: 对于这个股票的基本面你有信心的话，应该这么做，MM在内太强了。
|
f******e
发帖数: 6488 | |
m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 9 TANG KEVIN C 10% Owner 2009-10-15 Sell 600000 $12.67 -12
.87
Ramsay David Russ Director 2009-10-13 Sell 237500 $12.65
-12.73
KARABELAS ARGERIS N Director 2009-10-13 Sell 237500 $12.65 |
c*******n
发帖数: 1082 | |
j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 11 总结一下, 有同志PM了我, 问我对于VNDA的看法.
我的看法基本上可以概括如下:
1) 由于partnership已经搞定, 短期内没有噱头了.
2) Biotech最近总体走的不好.
3) VNDA今后的看点在于销售量, 可能要一年, 至少两,三个季度才能看出点端倪, 由于
Novartis自己也有药在市场上, 它对于Fanapt的销售倒底会持什么样的态度, 我猜不出
来. 有兴趣的同志自己可以去查一下Novartis的药的专利到期时间(2016年).
4) Fanapt的注射版出来之前可以考虑一搞.
转一篇BioWorld上的文章.
Fanapt Comes (Almost) Full Circle
Vanda Inks $465M Novartis Deal, but Acquisition Not off the Table
By Trista Morrison
Five months after the surprise FDA approval of schizophrenia drug Fanapt (
iloperidone), Vanda Pharmaceutic |
T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | |
