X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 1 Next week the market-moving news will be dominated by the FOMC meeting on
Wednesday, and remarks from the Federal Reserve about its forward plans for
monetary policy.
The FOMC monetary policy statement, due out at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, will
be followed by a press conference with Ben Bernanke 30 minutes later. It’s
unlikely that any announcement about a taper in the Fed’s bond-buying
program will move the market, as the market is expecting a slight taper.
However, if the taper is extreme in either direction -- if purchases will
not be reduced, or if the reduction is sizable -- the market will react.
Interest rates will move if the Fed changes its unemployment or inflation
thresholds for future policy action. The first rate hike is expected to
occur in February 2015, and any change in that timing would result in a
large decline or increase in US Treasuries. Also, the Fed may look to defend
its inflation goal, an unprecedented step since the central bank has always
been an inflation-fighting institution. Lastly, central growth forecasts
should be taken down to reflect the slower pace of growth projected for this
year.
Economic releases will also make the news. On Monday, we see the first
glimpse of September manufacturing data from the NY Fed’s Empire
Manufacturing survey. Additionally, August industrial production and
capacity utilization figures will be released. In the August ISM
manufacturing survey, the diffusion index and new orders sub component rose
to the highest level since April 2011 and represented the strongest
continued acceleration since spring 2009. Economists are expecting a strong
0.5% monthly growth in industrial production.
Preliminary August housing data is due out on Wednesday in the form of
housing starts and building permits. Economists are estimating a modest 2.1%
growth in starts and a 0.4% decline in permits. The August retail sales
report this past week showed a -0.9% decline in building materials, which
typically indicates a decline in building permits. However, the July report
was revised up to +0.4% from -1.8%, so the net change should be close to
neutral. New home starts peaked in March and new home contracts peaked in
July. The other piece of housing data out for the week is Thursday’s
existing home sales. Sales are expected to fall 2.6% to an annual rate of 5.
25 million.
The last piece of economic data due out is August consumer price indices.
The consumer price index is estimated to fall to an annual rate of 1.6% from
2.0% in the prior month. A decline is forecast in part because of falling
gas prices; the core index is forecast to rise to an annual rate of 1.8%
from 1.7%. National average gas prices fell by $0.035 during the month of
August. Grain prices were also down heavily on a much better than expected
crop report.
The Bank of India will release its monetary policy decision on Friday
morning. This decision had been delayed by the new governor in order to give
him time to work out the central bank's forward policy. Another central
bank-related release is the Bank of England's minutes from the meeting
earlier this month. New governor Mark Carney appears to have a divided
Monetary Policy Council and these minutes should offer more information on
the behind-the-scenes sentiment.
The unofficial start of earnings season begins next week with a report from
economic bellwether Fedex (NYSE:FDX). Other reports for the week include
Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), and General Mills (NYSE:GIS).
Monday, September 16
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Empire Manufacturing – consensus 9.00, prior 8.24
09:15 Industrial Production MoM – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.0%
09:15 Capacity Utilization – consensus 77.9%, prior 77.6%
11:00 Fed to purchase $750m-$1b bonds in 11 to 18-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $30b 3-month bills, $25b 6-month bills
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
CNY Foreign Direct Investment
09:00 Eurozone CPI
Earnings
No major reports
Tuesday, September 17
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY – consensus 1.6%, prior 2.0%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.7%
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index – consensus 59, prior 59
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills, $22b of 52-week bills
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
08:30 GBP PPI
08:30 GBP CPI
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment
Earnings
After:
Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE)
Wednesday, September 18
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 Housing Starts – consensus 921K, prior 896K
08:30 Building Permits – consensus 950K, prior expected to be revised up to
954K from 943K
2:00 FOMC Rate Decision
2:30 Bernanke press conference
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
01:30 CNY China Property Prices
08:30 GBP BoE Minutes
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey Expectations
22:45 NZD GDP
23:50 JPY Trade Balance
5:30 Germany selling EU5b in 2-year notes
Earnings
Before:
FedEx (NYSE:FDX)
After:
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL)
General Mills (NYSE:GIS)
Thursday, September 19
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - consensus 330k, prior 292k
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 2913K, prior 2871K
08:30 Current Account Balance (2Q) – consensus -$97.6B, prior -$106.1B
10:00 Philadelphia Fed – consensus 10.0, prior 9.3
10:00 Existing Home Sales – consensus 5.25M, prior 5.39M
10:00 Existing Home Sales MoM – consensus -2.6%, prior 6.5%
10:00 Leading Index – consensus 0.6%, prior 0.6%
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7 to 10-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 10-year TIPS (1st reopening)
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda to give speech in Tokyo
05:00 JPY Leading Index (final estimate July)
06:00 CHF Trade Balance
07:30 CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision
08:30 GBP Retail Sales
9:30 Spain selling 3, 15-year bonds
9:50 France selling 2, 3, 5-year notes
10:30 UK selling GBP4.75b 5-year notes
Earnings
Before:
ConAgra (NYSE:CAG)
Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD)
Pier 1 Imports (NYSE:PIR)
Friday, September 20
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
No major reports scheduled
11:00 Fed purchasing $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year range
Fedspeak
12:30pm George speaking on economy in NY
12:55pm Bullard speaking on economy and monetary policy in New York
1:45pm Kocherlakota speaks on economy in NY
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
JPY Japanese Investors Buying of Foreign Stocks/Bonds
01:30 INR Bank of India Rate Decision
08:30 GBP Public Credit Growth
12:30 CAD CPI
Earnings
No major earnings reports
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/global-markets/articles/FOMC-ben-bernanke-central-bank-industrial/9/13/2013/id/51761#ixzz2ephuBsUW | t*******y
发帖数: 348 | | ak
发帖数: 512 | 3 Thanks!
【在 X*****s 的大作中提到】
: Next week the market-moving news will be dominated by the FOMC meeting on
: Wednesday, and remarks from the Federal Reserve about its forward plans for
: monetary policy.
: The FOMC monetary policy statement, due out at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, will
: be followed by a press conference with Ben Bernanke 30 minutes later. It’s
: unlikely that any announcement about a taper in the Fed’s bond-buying
: program will move the market, as the market is expecting a slight taper.
: However, if the taper is extreme in either direction -- if purchases will
: not be reduced, or if the reduction is sizable -- the market will react.
: Interest rates will move if the Fed changes its unemployment or inflation
| t**e
发帖数: 2379 | 4 Thanks for sharing, I can feel it will be a "no taper", and even the dow
will move to another all time high.
One more thing to notice, Obama is set to herald economic records next week.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/09/15/on-anniversary-
Market tends to float up when Obama speaks and to decorate his economic
achievements.
It will be a volatile week with a bias to the upside.
for
will
s
【在 X*****s 的大作中提到】
: Next week the market-moving news will be dominated by the FOMC meeting on
: Wednesday, and remarks from the Federal Reserve about its forward plans for
: monetary policy.
: The FOMC monetary policy statement, due out at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, will
: be followed by a press conference with Ben Bernanke 30 minutes later. It’s
: unlikely that any announcement about a taper in the Fed’s bond-buying
: program will move the market, as the market is expecting a slight taper.
: However, if the taper is extreme in either direction -- if purchases will
: not be reduced, or if the reduction is sizable -- the market will react.
: Interest rates will move if the Fed changes its unemployment or inflation
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