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发帖数: 904 | 1 (ZT)
Stocks that could be negatively impacted due to Sandy
Insurers: (CB, TRV, AIG, ALL, TWGP, BRO)
William Blair notes that both Chubb (CB) & Travelers (TRV) have exposure
throughout the East Coast, losses from Irene, which totaled approx. $6 bln
in damages equaled $335 mln and $390 mln on a pre-tax basis respectively
which represents 51% and 37% of firm's expected Q4 EPS estimate for the
company.
Allstate (ALL) is the 2nd largest homeowners insurance underwriter. Irene
losses totaled $500 mln on pre-tax basis which is 55% of expected Q4 EPS est
for the company.
Tower Group (TWGP) relatively large East Coast property exposure through its
homeowners' and commercial property book. Irene losses totaled $60 mln pre-
tax, which is roughly 170% of firm's expected Q4 2012 EPS estimate for the
company.
MKM Partners said although the group will suffer losses, it will not be a
major "capital" event for the average company even if Sandy results in $10
billion of insured losses. They also believe the industry will continue to
be vigilant in getting rates as they incorporate this loss into their rating
plans.
Travel/Leisure Stocks (LCC, UAL, DAL, SAVE, LUV, PCLN, OWW, EXPE, WGO, THO,
HTZ, DTG, CAR, BA)
Sandy grounded 15 percent of U.S. flights from Oct. 27 through late
yesterday, according to data compiled by industry researcher FlightStats.
Boeing (BA) suspended operations at sites in Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey
and Pennsylvania and will determine plans for the remainder of the week on a
day-to-day basis.
Casino Stocks (Atlantic City) (CZR, MGM, BYD, WYNN)
Atlantic Casino casinos have suspended operations over the weekend. There
are reports of widespread flooding in Atlantic City. So far initial reports
indicate that there is no flooding inside the casinos. However, there is
still no indication on when these casinos will resume normal operations.
Caesars (CZR) may re-open Thursday, according to latest reports from CNBC.
Power Utilities (PGE, CEG, ED, FE)
Power outages are expected to last for more than a week in some areas.
Latest reports indicate that 7.8 million customers have lost power. Record
tides from the storm combined with hours of pounding wind and rain to flood
and electrical substations and shut down New York's financial district.
Power was lost in Manhattan south of 35th Street. Some outages were
deliberate as Consolidated Edison (ED), the city's utility, proactively shut
off parts of downtown Manhattan, including Wall Street, and Brooklyn.
Retail (XRT, SKS, JWN, RL, BURBY, LULU etc...)
We would note that retailers will report same store sales on Thursday,
however, any storm effects will not be included in those reports.
Avondale partners noted this morning that his group is likely to face lost
sales and will resort to markdowns. They say the specialty apparel retailers
face the greatest negative impact/ Examples in that sector include: SKS,
JWN, RL, BURBY, LULU).
Oil/Gas Names (HES, OIH, VLO, TSO, SUN, XLE, XOM, PSX)
There are several refinery's that are located in the northeastern United
States. Reports indicated that Hess (HES) plans to cut back on production
due to the storm.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), NuStar Energy LP, Phillips 66 (PSX) have also
closed energy terminals they operate in New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts
, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Virginia and Maryland, according to the Energy
Department.
Stocks that could be positively impacted
Insurers (BRO, MMC)
These names could benefit from the storm because both company's have a large
property wholesale book that is sensitive to property-catastrophe pricing.
While, the cos are exposed to storm damage, they both should see additional
pricing power following this event.
Home improvement & storm preparation (HD, LOW, BGG, GNRC)
Barron's had a positive report this morning on both Lowe's (LOW) and Home
Depot (HD) following the storm. Other names in the storm preparation and
recovery area include: BGG and GNRC, who is a supplier of standby
generators for the residential, commercial, industrial, and construction
markets. GNRC reports earnings Wednesday before the open, so this conference
call should be of interest to see if the company provides any commentary on
the Hurricane. |
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