C**E
发帖数: 2573 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: CBOE (CBOE), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 为啥闪崩？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 18 12:38:21 2012, 美东)
蓉儿 postPosted: 10/18/12 08:46
说一句 GOOG ，，， ，， 赌博大跌 8% ～ 10% ，，， | C**E
发帖数: 2573 | 2 题: Optionpain.com predicted GOOG bad ER 5 days early
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 18 12:52:54 2012, 美东)
Here is the record of the discussion on Optionpain's 99% forum
GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:28 pm
About 10, 000 contracts of Oct. $700 Puts were dumped to the market around
Sep 25 and 26 at $7.2.
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:51 pm
About 5,000 contracts of $700 Put were bought back between Oct 2 and 10, at
lower prices such as $3.5, $4.0, etc.
It is interesting to observe what the seller would do for the rest of 5,000
contract of $700 put.
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:11 am
the goog oct 20 800 calls have a 20607 open intrest and the goog nov 17 810
calls have open intrest 17333 huge calls sittin in open int........
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:38 am
jpester1 wrote:
the goog oct 20 800 calls have a 20607 open intrest and the goog nov 17 810
calls have open intrest 17333 huge calls sittin in open int........
Oct $800 calls appeared around Sep. 24 and 25.
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:39 am
jpester1 wrote:
the goog oct 20 800 calls have a 20607 open intrest and the goog nov 17 810
calls have open intrest 17333 huge calls sittin in open int........
Nov 800 calls also appeared on Sep. 24, 25
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:45 am
Around Sep 24 and 25, there were huge surge of
(1) Oct 800 calls
(2) Oct 700 puts
(3) Nov 800 calls
But it seems that Oct 700 puts have been partially bought back, while the
Oct and Nov. 800 calls are still sitting there.
Buying Oct 700 puts back could mean that these puts would become more
valuable in the near future, it is likely that GOOG will show big drops
recently (it could break 700).
It would be interesting to watch what happens to these three options next.
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:19 pm
i think what they are doin is sellin the oct 800 calls to buy the nov 810
calls.....
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:44 pm
There must be a large firm involved here, due to the large trade size, let
us call it firm A.
The question is who was the counter party of the large trade.
(1) If Firm A was dumping the options to small traders, then open interest
reflects the creation of new OI by from A, and Firm A profit from small
traders' losses.
(2) If another large Firm B was the counter party, then the goal of the
trade could be hedging, swap, or cooperation in price manipulation.
Based on what happened to Oct 700 puts, relatively small reducing of OI over
several days, it seems to me that firm A was buying back the puts from
retail, small, traders.
jpester1 wrote:
i think what they are doin is sellin the oct 800 calls to buy the nov 810
calls.....
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:16 pm
therefore thinkin goog is headed towards 800 vs 700 correct?
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:40 pm
jpester1 wrote:
therefore thinkin goog is headed towards 800 vs 700 correct?
Based on the continuing disappearance of 700 put, it seems going south.
But please be extremely careful,
your money, your risk.
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:35 pm
the nov options are showing those 700 puts being dumped to market...any new
thoughts on goog here?
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:50 pm
jpester1 wrote:
therefore thinkin goog is headed towards 800 vs 700 correct?
Without looking Nov options, it looks to me GOOG has more chance going down
(Oct puts were bought back).
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by hat4715 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:53 pm
No, I would think $700 or lower is in play possibly. If Firm A is
anticipating Google might be going lower than $700., Then Firm A would not
want the premium they are collecting at $700 to become a loser. I had
purchased $700 put credit spread Monday. I received a good price Monday
because Google was way down at one point. I was legging into an Iron Condor.
On the bounce up this morning I sold the position for a small profit. $700
stil has high OI but the buy backs scare me. MR. Optionpain am I
interpreting this safe way. I know there are no guarantees in trading. Just
looking for how to interpret option dumping. Thanks.
hat4715
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 12:27 pm
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Tue Oct 16, 2012 4:06 pm
I have watched many GOOG ERs.
But this Oct. 2012 ER seems to have a very strong and consistent signal.
Please always consider risk management (in case we are wrong) before you put
money at risk.
Optionpain
Posts: 114
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:48 am
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 5:10 am
gettin mixed signals from option dumping chart on goog sometimes it pulls up
that more 800 calls being sold and sometimes it s pulling up those 800
calls being bought back........what are you seeing optionpain??
jpester1
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2012 2:59 pm
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by hat4715 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 5:40 am
You scared me for a minute. To me it still has high open interest at the $
800 at least. Where the $700 has never really been sold back into the market
.
Optionpain, a question. Since you have to work with data one day behind. In
other words this morning current pain and weekly pain on figured on
yesterday data. Thus AAPL current pain $645 and weekly at $650. Tomorrow
morning these two should match? Correct or? Thanks
hat4715
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 12:27 pm
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:36 am
[
quote="hat4715"]You scared me for a minute. To me it still has high open
interest at the $800 at least. Where the $700 has never really been sold
back into the market.
Optionpain, a question. Since you have to work with data one day behind. In
other words this morning current pain and weekly pain on figured on
yesterday data. Thus AAPL current pain $645 and weekly at $650. Tomorrow
morning these two should match? Correct or? Thanks[/quote]
Yes, the best you can figure out is what they were doing in the previous
trading day.
Optionpain
Posts: 114
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:48 am
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:38 am
jpester1 wrote:
gettin mixed signals from option dumping chart on goog sometimes it pulls up
that more 800 calls being sold and sometimes it s pulling up those 800
calls being bought back........what are you seeing optionpain??
Our purchased data, very reliable, is available around 7:00pm est. before
that, we get data from Yahoo!finance, which is not very reliable.
Optionpain
Posts: 114
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:48 am
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by jpester1 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:39 am
does goog still look like it s headin lower? thanks
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:47 am
jpester1 wrote:
does goog still look like it s headin lower? thanks
I have not looked at the charts, but based on past charts, someone was
buying back large amount of oct. 700 puts.
Optionpain
Posts: 114
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:48 am
Top
Re: GOOG Option Movements Before Oct. 2012 ER
by Optionpain » Thu Oct 18, 2012 8:45 am
Optionpain wrote:
Around Sep 24 and 25, there were huge surge of
(1) Oct 800 calls
(2) Oct 700 puts
(3) Nov 800 calls
But it seems that Oct 700 puts have been partially bought back, while the
Oct and Nov. 800 calls are still sitting there.
Buying Oct 700 puts back could mean that these puts would become more
valuable in the near future, it is likely that GOOG will show big drops
recently (it could break 700).
It would be interesting to watch what happens to these three options next.
GOOG dropped to 700 after the announcement! | C**E
发帖数: 2573 | 3 发信人: EmMeadow (青山绿水), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 输的好冤啊
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 18 14:10:11 2012, 美东)
每个青蛙都有这样的经历吧。其实每个意外之前市场都有预警信号。青蛙对此不敏感，
总觉得自己的判断没有问题。如此而已。 | T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | 4 "Earlier this morning RR Donnelley, the financial printer, informed us that
they had filed our draft 8K earnings statement without authorization,"
Google said in a statement. "We have ceased trading on NASDAQ while we work
to finalize the document. Once it's finalized we will release our earnings,
resume trading on NASDAQ and hold our earnings call as normal at 1:30 PM PT."
收盘的报告弄到盘中出来了，真夸张 | q*********u
发帖数: 9501 | 5 其实每个意外之前市场都有预警信号
---------------------------------
能有这样的认知不容易，预警信号就是技术分析所追求的，你说的这点我是深有感触的。
我在几个月前就说过aone会破产，现在不是兑现了吗？
【在 C**E 的大作中提到】
: 发信人: EmMeadow (青山绿水), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Re: 输的好冤啊
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 18 14:10:11 2012, 美东)
: 每个青蛙都有这样的经历吧。其实每个意外之前市场都有预警信号。青蛙对此不敏感，
: 总觉得自己的判断没有问题。如此而已。
| s***g
发帖数: 1250 | 6 掌柜当时是怎么分析aone的？想学习一下。
的。
【在 q*********u 的大作中提到】
: 其实每个意外之前市场都有预警信号
: ---------------------------------
: 能有这样的认知不容易，预警信号就是技术分析所追求的，你说的这点我是深有感触的。
: 我在几个月前就说过aone会破产，现在不是兑现了吗？
| B*********e
发帖数: 909 | 7 NB!!
【在 C**E 的大作中提到】
: 发信人: EmMeadow (青山绿水), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Re: 输的好冤啊
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 18 14:10:11 2012, 美东)
: 每个青蛙都有这样的经历吧。其实每个意外之前市场都有预警信号。青蛙对此不敏感，
: 总觉得自己的判断没有问题。如此而已。
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