T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | 1 Market Outlook: Jobs Report to Cap a Hectic Week
CNBC.com | January 27, 2012 | 08:53 PM EST
The January employment report will cap a hectic week of earnings news,
economic reports and Fed testimony.
Throw in the European leaders summit Monday, a possible Greek debt deal and
Chinese manufacturing data Wednesday, and you get a week that could shake
stocks out of their doldrums?one way or the other.
Stocks in the past week were mixed with the Dow down a half percent at 12,
660; the S&P 500 basically flat at 1316, and the Nasdaq, up 1 percent, as it
benefitted from Apple’s sharp move higher on explosive earnings growth.
The market got a lift from Wednesday’s Fed forecast, which was for a now
super-long period of extended low rates, through the end of 2014.
But gains were chiseled away by disappointing economic news, particularly
Friday’s slightly lower than expected fourth quarter GDP report.
The five-year note yield fell to its third record low of the week after the
GDP report added to speculation the Fed could now move ahead with another
round of quantitative easing. It was yielding 0.749 percent late Friday. The
10-year was yielding 1.891 percent, its lowest level of the week.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Economic reports in the coming week could be mixed, as the January jobs
report Friday is likely to show lower job growth in January, with an
increase of nonfarm payrolls of about 125,000 jobs.
December’s report showed 200,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate
fell to 8.5 percent.
“There were a couple of seasonal numbers that helped last month’s jobs
number that probably won’t recur this time. There was a big increase in
carriers and messengers, which is probably due to the increase of online’s
share of holiday shopping,” said Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Tilton.
“It had its benefit in December, and there’s payback this month,” said
Tilton.
There were 42,000 courier jobs added in December. ISM manufacturing data and
monthly auto sales Wednesday will also be important. Chain stores report
their monthly sales on Thursday.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony Thursday before the House Budget
Committee will also be closely watched, as he is undoubtedly going to be
asked about the Fed’s policies, its new forecasts and whether it has any
plans to undertake another round of quantitative easing, or asset purchases.
Bernanke this past week said the Fed has no current plans for a new QE
program, but it could carry out another easing program if the economy runs
into trouble.
If there is more QE, Fed watchers believe the Fed would target the mortgage
market, buying hundreds of billions of securities in an effort to keep
interest rates low.
Earnings Central
Earnings reports are expected this week from more than a fifth of the S&P
500, with oil major Exxon Mobil reporting, as well as pharmaceutical
heavyweights Merck and Pfizer, and a long list of others including Amazon.
com, Blackstone, Aetna and MasterCard.
A bright spot midweek may be the much-anticipated filing by Facebook for an
IPO.
So far, about 37 percent of the S&P 500 companies have reported, with
Thomson Reuters noting that just 59 percent beat earnings estimates, well
below recent the 70 percent plus in recent quarters.
This is also the first quarter of the recovery where earnings growth is
single digit.
“For the year, we’re looking for a five percent earnings (growth) number,
but we’re not really looking for much margin expansion,” said Wells Fargo
Advisors chief equity strategist Stuart Freeman.
Freeman said he expects stocks to reflect the slower earnings growth, as
well as other factors, including political uncertainty and concerns about
the economy.
“I think we’ll be in a trading range for a while that’s got some
volatility to it,” said Freeman.
“I think we’ll slowly see the employment numbers go up, and we’ll slowly
see them go up in a breadth of industries like they have been, but not real
aggressively.” “Last year, you had a lot of people worried about the
second dip and the market got hit and commodities got hit.
I think this year we’re going to find we can grow at a slow pace, even if
Europe is in a recession,” he said. “I think we can continue to see
expansion. But unfortunately you don’t really see much multiple expansion
until there’s a great deal of investor sentiment that’s favorable and
consumer sentiment (rises)?just a better comfort level of taking risk in
general.”
Your Money, Your Vote
Traders have become more interested in the presidential election, though
many say it is not yet affecting stock prices and may not for awhile.
Florida’s Republican primary Tuesday could be a close race between former
House speaker Newt Gingrich and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and
it is getting a lot of attention.
Romney is the founder of Bain Capital and the preferred candidate of many on
Wall Street, who disagree with President Obama’s policies.
Some analysts believe the market could have a negative reaction if Gingrich
wins Florida, since they see Romney as the best Republican candidate to
challenge President Obama.
“It’s not going to be a comfortable year. Politically we’re going to hear
a lot of noise and backbiting. We’ll trudge through it as we always do,”
said Freeman. “I think the market will be calmer once we see clear
candidates. Although historically, the fourth year of the presidential cycle
is not really a hot one.”
Some strategists say the market could rally later in the year, once the
uncertainty is removed and it becomes clear who might win the election,
regardless of the candidate.
While it’s early days, the Intrade predictions market shows odds on Obama
to win.
Freeman expects the S&P 500 to finish the year between 1325 and 1376, and
while he notes that move is not far from current levels, his target last
year was 1250 to 1275. The S&P finished flat and close to dead center at
1263.
Europe European leaders meet Monday and are expected to finalize new budget
oversight rules, as well as discuss strategies about ways to stimulate euro
zone economies.
“We have the summit taking place on Monday and over the weekend we are
expecting to get details on whatever the Greek debt deal entails,” said
Brian Dolan of Forex.com.
The euro was up 2.2 percent for the week, to 1.3219 and has risen more than
4 percent in the past two weeks.
The euro has risen, in part from a short squeeze, as the markets have become
calmer about progress in Europe’s handling of its debt crisis.
The LTRO liquidity facility has protected European banks and spreads have
come in dramatically on Italian and Spanish bonds.
Dolan said the market is awaiting the details on the size of the “hair cut
” and other details of Greece’s expected deal with private sector debt
holders.
“We’re just one headline away form a move out of the euro and a stampede
back into the dollar,” said Dolan.
Dolan said in addition to Europe, he is watching Chinese data.
He said manufacturing PMI data for January, released Wednesday, is expected
to drop under 50, which would signal contraction.
The week marks the end of January, and there will be portfolio adjustments
as a result.
“Overall, the portfolio rebalancing flows should be U.S. dollar negative
across the board,” he said.
What to Watch (all times Eastern time)
Monday
EU Leaders Summit
8:30 a.m. Personal Income/spending
8:30 a.m. Core PCE prices
10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Survey
2:00 p.m. Senior Loan officer survey Q1
Earnings: Philips Electronics, Gannett, Ryanair, Reinsurance Group of
America, Enbridge Energy Partners, McKesson, Plum Creek
Tuesday
8:30 a.m. Employment cost index
9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices
9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI
10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence
10:00 a.m. State Street investor confidence index
10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies
Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Honda, Lilly, UPS, Pfizer, Illinois Toolworks, Amazon
.com, Aflac, Broadcom, Entergy, ADM, Danaher, Oshkosh, U.S. Steel, Tyco,
Celanese
Wednesday
January vehicle sales (throughout the day)
7:30 a.m. Challenger job cuts
8:15 a.m. ADP employment
8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on the economic outlook
10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing
10:00 a.m. Construction spending
Earnings: Aetna, Whirlpool, Tupperware, Qualcomm, Chipotle Mexican Grill,
JDS Uniphase, Las Vegas Sands, Allstate, Northrop Grumman, Nasdaq OMX,
Marathon Oil
Thursday
8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims
8:30 a.m. Productivity/unit labor costs
10 a.m. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the House Budget
Committee
RBC Consumer Outlook Index
January chain store sales
4:30 p.m. Fed balance sheet
4:30 p.m. Money supply
Earnings: AstraZeneca, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell Unilever, Sony, Kellogg,
MasterCard, Allergan, Viacom, Cigna, Dow Chemical, Blackstone, Tesoro, CME
Group, Diamond Offshore, Pulte Group, Royal Caribbean
Friday
8:30 a.m. Employment report (January)
10:00 a.m. ISM Services
10:00 a.m. Factory orders
Earnings: Clorox, Estee Lauder, Aon, Tyson Foods, Weyerhaeuser, Simon
Property | T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | 2 Market Outlook: Jobs Report to Cap a Hectic Week
CNBC.com | January 27, 2012 | 08:53 PM EST
The January employment report will cap a hectic week of earnings news,
economic reports and Fed testimony.
Throw in the European leaders summit Monday, a possible Greek debt deal and
Chinese manufacturing data Wednesday, and you get a week that could shake
stocks out of their doldrums?one way or the other.
Stocks in the past week were mixed with the Dow down a half percent at 12,
660; the S&P 500 basically flat at 1316, and the Nasdaq, up 1 percent, as it
benefitted from Apple’s sharp move higher on explosive earnings growth.
The market got a lift from Wednesday’s Fed forecast, which was for a now
super-long period of extended low rates, through the end of 2014.
But gains were chiseled away by disappointing economic news, particularly
Friday’s slightly lower than expected fourth quarter GDP report.
The five-year note yield fell to its third record low of the week after the
GDP report added to speculation the Fed could now move ahead with another
round of quantitative easing. It was yielding 0.749 percent late Friday. The
10-year was yielding 1.891 percent, its lowest level of the week.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Economic reports in the coming week could be mixed, as the January jobs
report Friday is likely to show lower job growth in January, with an
increase of nonfarm payrolls of about 125,000 jobs.
December’s report showed 200,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate
fell to 8.5 percent.
“There were a couple of seasonal numbers that helped last month’s jobs
number that probably won’t recur this time. There was a big increase in
carriers and messengers, which is probably due to the increase of online’s
share of holiday shopping,” said Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Tilton.
“It had its benefit in December, and there’s payback this month,” said
Tilton.
There were 42,000 courier jobs added in December. ISM manufacturing data and
monthly auto sales Wednesday will also be important. Chain stores report
their monthly sales on Thursday.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony Thursday before the House Budget
Committee will also be closely watched, as he is undoubtedly going to be
asked about the Fed’s policies, its new forecasts and whether it has any
plans to undertake another round of quantitative easing, or asset purchases.
Bernanke this past week said the Fed has no current plans for a new QE
program, but it could carry out another easing program if the economy runs
into trouble.
If there is more QE, Fed watchers believe the Fed would target the mortgage
market, buying hundreds of billions of securities in an effort to keep
interest rates low.
Earnings Central
Earnings reports are expected this week from more than a fifth of the S&P
500, with oil major Exxon Mobil reporting, as well as pharmaceutical
heavyweights Merck and Pfizer, and a long list of others including Amazon.
com, Blackstone, Aetna and MasterCard.
A bright spot midweek may be the much-anticipated filing by Facebook for an
IPO.
So far, about 37 percent of the S&P 500 companies have reported, with
Thomson Reuters noting that just 59 percent beat earnings estimates, well
below recent the 70 percent plus in recent quarters.
This is also the first quarter of the recovery where earnings growth is
single digit.
“For the year, we’re looking for a five percent earnings (growth) number,
but we’re not really looking for much margin expansion,” said Wells Fargo
Advisors chief equity strategist Stuart Freeman.
Freeman said he expects stocks to reflect the slower earnings growth, as
well as other factors, including political uncertainty and concerns about
the economy.
“I think we’ll be in a trading range for a while that’s got some
volatility to it,” said Freeman.
“I think we’ll slowly see the employment numbers go up, and we’ll slowly
see them go up in a breadth of industries like they have been, but not real
aggressively.” “Last year, you had a lot of people worried about the
second dip and the market got hit and commodities got hit.
I think this year we’re going to find we can grow at a slow pace, even if
Europe is in a recession,” he said. “I think we can continue to see
expansion. But unfortunately you don’t really see much multiple expansion
until there’s a great deal of investor sentiment that’s favorable and
consumer sentiment (rises)?just a better comfort level of taking risk in
general.”
Your Money, Your Vote
Traders have become more interested in the presidential election, though
many say it is not yet affecting stock prices and may not for awhile.
Florida’s Republican primary Tuesday could be a close race between former
House speaker Newt Gingrich and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and
it is getting a lot of attention.
Romney is the founder of Bain Capital and the preferred candidate of many on
Wall Street, who disagree with President Obama’s policies.
Some analysts believe the market could have a negative reaction if Gingrich
wins Florida, since they see Romney as the best Republican candidate to
challenge President Obama.
“It’s not going to be a comfortable year. Politically we’re going to hear
a lot of noise and backbiting. We’ll trudge through it as we always do,”
said Freeman. “I think the market will be calmer once we see clear
candidates. Although historically, the fourth year of the presidential cycle
is not really a hot one.”
Some strategists say the market could rally later in the year, once the
uncertainty is removed and it becomes clear who might win the election,
regardless of the candidate.
While it’s early days, the Intrade predictions market shows odds on Obama
to win.
Freeman expects the S&P 500 to finish the year between 1325 and 1376, and
while he notes that move is not far from current levels, his target last
year was 1250 to 1275. The S&P finished flat and close to dead center at
1263.
Europe European leaders meet Monday and are expected to finalize new budget
oversight rules, as well as discuss strategies about ways to stimulate euro
zone economies.
“We have the summit taking place on Monday and over the weekend we are
expecting to get details on whatever the Greek debt deal entails,” said
Brian Dolan of Forex.com.
The euro was up 2.2 percent for the week, to 1.3219 and has risen more than
4 percent in the past two weeks.
The euro has risen, in part from a short squeeze, as the markets have become
calmer about progress in Europe’s handling of its debt crisis.
The LTRO liquidity facility has protected European banks and spreads have
come in dramatically on Italian and Spanish bonds.
Dolan said the market is awaiting the details on the size of the “hair cut
” and other details of Greece’s expected deal with private sector debt
holders.
“We’re just one headline away form a move out of the euro and a stampede
back into the dollar,” said Dolan.
Dolan said in addition to Europe, he is watching Chinese data.
He said manufacturing PMI data for January, released Wednesday, is expected
to drop under 50, which would signal contraction.
The week marks the end of January, and there will be portfolio adjustments
as a result.
“Overall, the portfolio rebalancing flows should be U.S. dollar negative
across the board,” he said.
What to Watch (all times Eastern time)
Monday
EU Leaders Summit
8:30 a.m. Personal Income/spending
8:30 a.m. Core PCE prices
10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Survey
2:00 p.m. Senior Loan officer survey Q1
Earnings: Philips Electronics, Gannett, Ryanair, Reinsurance Group of
America, Enbridge Energy Partners, McKesson, Plum Creek
Tuesday
8:30 a.m. Employment cost index
9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices
9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI
10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence
10:00 a.m. State Street investor confidence index
10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies
Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Honda, Lilly, UPS, Pfizer, Illinois Toolworks, Amazon
.com, Aflac, Broadcom, Entergy, ADM, Danaher, Oshkosh, U.S. Steel, Tyco,
Celanese
Wednesday
January vehicle sales (throughout the day)
7:30 a.m. Challenger job cuts
8:15 a.m. ADP employment
8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on the economic outlook
10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing
10:00 a.m. Construction spending
Earnings: Aetna, Whirlpool, Tupperware, Qualcomm, Chipotle Mexican Grill,
JDS Uniphase, Las Vegas Sands, Allstate, Northrop Grumman, Nasdaq OMX,
Marathon Oil
Thursday
8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims
8:30 a.m. Productivity/unit labor costs
10 a.m. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the House Budget
Committee
RBC Consumer Outlook Index
January chain store sales
4:30 p.m. Fed balance sheet
4:30 p.m. Money supply
Earnings: AstraZeneca, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell Unilever, Sony, Kellogg,
MasterCard, Allergan, Viacom, Cigna, Dow Chemical, Blackstone, Tesoro, CME
Group, Diamond Offshore, Pulte Group, Royal Caribbean
Friday
8:30 a.m. Employment report (January)
10:00 a.m. ISM Services
10:00 a.m. Factory orders
Earnings: Clorox, Estee Lauder, Aon, Tyson Foods, Weyerhaeuser, Simon
Property |
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