g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: Landsend (错误的参数), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 去年买房的都在半山腰了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 5 17:25:24 2010, 美东)
到了明年回头望, 今年买房的也会在半山腰...介绍一个有理有据的房黑网站:
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
"... house prices will keep falling in most places. Prices are still
dangerously high compared to incomes and rents. Banks say a safe mortgage is
a maximum of 3 times the buyer's annual income with 20% downpayment.
Landlords say a safe price is a maximum of 15 times the house's annual rent.
Yet on the coasts, both those safety rules are still being violated. Buyers
are still borrowing 6 times their income and putting only 3% down, and
sellers are still asking 30 times annual rent, even after recent price
declines. Renting is a cash business that proves what people can really pay
based on their salary, not how much they can borrow. Salaries and rents
prove that prices will keep falling for a long time. Anyone who bought a "
bargain" this time last year is already sitting on a very painful loss."
"...it's still much cheaper to rent than to own the same size and quality
house, in the same school district. On the coasts, annual rents are 3% of
purchase price while mortgage rates are 6%, so it costs twice as much to
borrow the money than it does to borrow the house. Renters win and owners
lose! Worse, total owner costs including taxes, maintenance, and insurance
come to about 9% of purchase price, which is three times the cost of renting
and wipes out any income tax benefit. Buying a house is still a very bad
deal in the richer neighborhoods, but it does make sense to buy in some
relatively poor neighborhoods where prices have already fallen into line
with salaries and rents.
The only true sign of a bottom is a price low enough so that you could rent
out the house and make a profit. Then you'll know it's safe to buy for
yourself because then rent could cover the mortgage and all expenses if
necessary, eliminating most of your risk. The basic buying safety rule is to
divide annual rent by the purchase price for the house:
annual rent / purchase price = 3% means do not buy
annual rent / purchase price = 6% means borderline
annual rent / purchase price = 9% means ok to buy
it's a terrible time to buy when interest rates are low, like now. Realtors
just lie without shame about this fundamental fact. House prices fall as
interest rates rise, because a fixed monthly payment covers a smaller
mortgage at a higher interest rate. Since interest rates have nowhere to go
but up, prices have nowhere to go but down. The way to win the game is to
have cash on hand to buy outright at a low price when others cannot borrow
very much because of high interest rates. Then you get a low price, and you
get capital appreciation caused by falling interest rates. To buy at a time
of low interest rates and high prices like now is a mistake for both reasons
.
It is far better to pay a low price with a high interest rate than a high
price with a low interest rate, even if the mortgage payment is the same
either way.
Your property taxes will be lower with a low purchase price.
A low price gives you the ability to pay it all off instead of being a debt-
slave for the rest of your life.
As interest rates fall from high to low, house prices increase.
Paying a high price now may trap you "under water", meaning you'll have a
mortgage larger than the value of the house. Then you will not be able to
refinance because there you'll have no equity, and will not be able to sell
without a loss. Even if you get a long-term fixed rate mortgage, when rates
inevitably go up the value of your property will go down. Paying a low price
minimizes your damage.
.......... | t*******r
发帖数: 22634 | 2 去年的难道不都是抄底了？
is
rent.
【在 g********n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
: 发信人: Landsend (错误的参数), 信区: SanFrancisco
: 标 题: 去年买房的都在半山腰了
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 5 17:25:24 2010, 美东)
: 到了明年回头望, 今年买房的也会在半山腰...介绍一个有理有据的房黑网站:
: http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
: "... house prices will keep falling in most places. Prices are still
: dangerously high compared to incomes and rents. Banks say a safe mortgage is
: a maximum of 3 times the buyer's annual income with 20% downpayment.
: Landlords say a safe price is a maximum of 15 times the house's annual rent.
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