s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 1 Revenue guide ~$2.1B module + $0.6-0.8B EPC.
Since FSLR's shipment is limited to 1.4GW next year calculated from their
maximum capacity, this revenue guidance implied an ASP of no less than $2.1B
/1.4GW = $1.5/W. This is very optimistic and a great surprise.
This also implies Chinese c-Si companies will sell at no less than $1.8/W vs
consensus street views of ~$1.65 for 2010. Plus FSLR can not grab more
market share due to capacity constraint, there is huge upside for those
aggressive Chinese so | s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 2 Well, from the presentation and webcast, it's completely not what I thought.
..
It's getting very funny. They give a pretty conservative market prediciton
of 7.5GW in 2010 and 2GW of oversupply, and a very bloody prediction on c-Si
pricing:
$40-50/kg poly + $0.75/W processing + 20% GM at 4Q10
And they have to assume they can sell at a price on par or even slightly
higher than c-Si because of blah blah blah, which is highly doubtful to me.
1B
vs
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: Revenue guide ~$2.1B module + $0.6-0.8B EPC.
: Since FSLR's shipment is limited to 1.4GW next year calculated from their
: maximum capacity, this revenue guidance implied an ASP of no less than $2.1B
: /1.4GW = $1.5/W. This is very optimistic and a great surprise.
: This also implies Chinese c-Si companies will sell at no less than $1.8/W vs
: consensus street views of ~$1.65 for 2010. Plus FSLR can not grab more
: market share due to capacity constraint, there is huge upside for those
: aggressive Chinese so
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