x******k
发帖数: 847 | 1 http://www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/jlpp/Vol30_No2_KatesMa
Harvard Study: Gun Control Is Counterproductive
The study, which just appeared in Volume 30, Number 2 of the Harvard Journal
of Law & Public Policy (pp. 649-694), set out to answer the question in its
title: "Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder and Suicide? A Review of
International and Some Domestic Evidence." Contrary to conventional wisdom,
and the sniffs of our more sophisticated and generally anti-gun counterparts
across the pond, the answer is "no." And not just no, as in there is no
correlation between gun ownership and violent crime, but an emphatic no,
showing a negative correlation: as gun ownership increases, murder and
suicide decreases.
The findings of two criminologists - Prof. Don Kates and Prof. Gary Mauser -
in their exhaustive study of American and European gun laws and violence
rates, are telling:
Nations with stringent anti-gun laws generally have substantially higher
murder rates than those that do not. The study found that the nine European
nations with the lowest rates of gun ownership (5,000 or fewer guns per 100,
000 population) have a combined murder rate three times higher than that of
the nine nations with the highest rates of gun ownership (at least 15,000
guns per 100,000 population).
For example, Norway has the highest rate of gun ownership in Western Europe,
yet possesses the lowest murder rate. In contrast, Holland's murder rate is
nearly the worst, despite having the lowest gun ownership rate in Western
Europe. Sweden and Denmark are two more examples of nations with high murder
rates but few guns. As the study's authors write in the report:
If the mantra "more guns equal more death and fewer guns equal less
death" were true, broad cross-national comparisons should show that nations
with higher gun ownership per capita consistently have more death. Nations
with higher gun ownership rates, however, do not have higher murder or
suicide rates than those with lower gun ownership. Indeed many high gun
ownership nations have much lower murder rates. (p. 661)
Finally, and as if to prove the bumper sticker correct - that "gun don't
kill people, people do" - the study also shows that Russia's murder rate is
four times higher than the U.S. and more than 20 times higher than Norway.
This, in a country that practically eradicated private gun ownership over
the course of decades of totalitarian rule and police state methods of
suppression. Needless to say, very few Russian murders involve guns.
The important thing to keep in mind is not the rate of deaths by gun - a
statistic that anti-gun advocates are quick to recite - but the overall
murder rate, regardless of means. The criminologists explain:
[P]er capita murder overall is only half as frequent in the United
States as in several other nations where gun murder is rarer, but murder by
strangling, stabbing, or beating is much more frequent. (p. 663 - emphases
in original)
It is important to note here that Profs. Kates and Mauser are not pro-gun
zealots. In fact, they go out of their way to stress that their study
neither proves that gun control causes higher murder rates nor that
increased gun ownership necessarily leads to lower murder rates. (Though, in
my view, Prof. John Lott's More Guns, Less Crime does indeed prove the
latter.) But what is clear, and what they do say, is that gun control is
ineffectual at preventing murder, and apparently counterproductive.
Not only is the D.C. gun ban ill-conceived on constitutional grounds, it
fails to live up to its purpose. If the astronomical murder rate in the
nation's capitol, in comparison to cities where gun ownership is permitted,
didn't already make that fact clear, this study out of Harvard should. | I*********t
发帖数: 5258 | 2 这文章逻辑很奇怪，禁枪严格的国家犯罪率高，通常来说不就是因为犯罪率高所以政府
要采取行动来禁枪吗？而且相关性不代表因果，高犯罪率不等于高持枪犯罪率，完全不
能说明枪支对犯罪本身是增加还是减少，这还哈佛法学院呢，整个逻辑混乱的不得了了
。 | x******k
发帖数: 847 | 3 同意相关性不代表因果，但是不能忽视数据来说你那“不胡乱”的逻辑啊。
Switzerland每个健康的男人都要当兵，当兵之后枪归己有，结果就是几乎每
家都有枪，你的逻辑难道就是Switzerland很危险，很高持枪犯罪率，即使数据并不是
如此？ | I*********t
发帖数: 5258 | 4 我的逻辑是因为瑞士不危险。所以不需要大力控枪。
【在 x******k 的大作中提到】
: 同意相关性不代表因果，但是不能忽视数据来说你那“不胡乱”的逻辑啊。
: Switzerland每个健康的男人都要当兵，当兵之后枪归己有，结果就是几乎每
: 家都有枪，你的逻辑难道就是Switzerland很危险，很高持枪犯罪率，即使数据并不是
: 如此？
| l*****9
发帖数: 9501 | 5 Gun control leads to decrease of mass killing | a*********8
发帖数: 2353 | 6 就是，如果那些高犯罪率的国家如果不禁枪－犯罪率可能更高。那俩法学院的和你比逻
辑差得不是一点半点。这种误导人的文章还发，reviewer是不是睡觉去了?
【在 I*********t 的大作中提到】
: 这文章逻辑很奇怪，禁枪严格的国家犯罪率高，通常来说不就是因为犯罪率高所以政府
: 要采取行动来禁枪吗？而且相关性不代表因果，高犯罪率不等于高持枪犯罪率，完全不
: 能说明枪支对犯罪本身是增加还是减少，这还哈佛法学院呢，整个逻辑混乱的不得了了
: 。
| a*********8
发帖数: 2353 | 7 你还是没搞明白。人家是说因为Switzerland本身社会比较稳定，是不是禁枪就没有那
么重要了。而对一个高犯罪率的国家，禁枪显然可以减少大规模杀伤的可能！
【在 x******k 的大作中提到】
: 同意相关性不代表因果，但是不能忽视数据来说你那“不胡乱”的逻辑啊。
: Switzerland每个健康的男人都要当兵，当兵之后枪归己有，结果就是几乎每
: 家都有枪，你的逻辑难道就是Switzerland很危险，很高持枪犯罪率，即使数据并不是
: 如此？
| B***i
发帖数: 724 | 8 这样的哈佛学者可以去死了。 相关性不代表因果关系。 文章本身只是在说明相关性，
不知道文章标题是记者加的还是哈福学者自己加的。
就算标题是小白记者加的把， 这个哈佛学者的研究也是一点用处没有。 明知道相关性
不能说明问题， 但是也不进一步去研究之间的相互关系， 就把文章放出来误导小白。 | B***i
发帖数: 724 | 9 不好意思， 没仔细调查就开骂。 这两个人其实和哈佛没啥关系。Don B. Kates 居然
还用一个@earthlink 的信箱。 民科把。
http://www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/jlpp/Vol30_No2_KatesMa
* Don B. Kates (LL.B., Yale, 1966) is an American criminologist and
constitutional
lawyer associated with the Pacific Research Institute, San Francisco. He may
be con‐
tacted at d*****[email protected]; 360‐666‐2688; 22608 N.E. 269th Ave.,
Battle Ground,
WA 98604.
** Gary Mauser (Ph.D., University of California, Irvine, 1970) is a Canadian
crimi‐
nologist and university professor at Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC
Canada.
He may be contacted at www.garymauser.net, m****[email protected], and 604‐291‐3652.
We gratefully acknowledge the generous contributions of Professor Thomas B.
Cole
(University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Social Medicine and
Epidemiology);
Chief Superintendent Colin Greenwood (West Yorkshire Constabulary, ret.); C.
B.
Kates; Abigail Kohn (University of Sydney, Law); David B. Kopel (
Independence
Institute); Professor Timothy D. Lytton (Albany Law School); Professor
William
Alex Pridemore (University of Oklahoma, Sociology); Professor Randolph Roth
(Ohio State University, History); Professor Thomas Velk (McGill University,
Eco‐
nomics and Chairman of the North American Studies Program); Professor Robert
Weisberg (Stanford Law School); and John Whitley (University of Adelaide,
Eco‐
nomics). Any merits of this paper reflect their advice and contributions;
errors are
entirely ours. | x******k
发帖数: 847 | 10 社会科学，甚至很多自然科学都是利用相关关系下结论，有多少是真正通过大量试验证
明因果的？讨论数据也不能选择性失明啊。
毒品被认为毒害身心，毒害社会，所以联邦政府发动禁毒，毒品战争。每年数十亿美元
用在这上面，监狱里关N多万的吸毒，贩毒的人。每个学校都标为无毒区，今天效果怎
么样？我想大家心里都有答案。
很不幸现在又有人拿枪屠杀了，跟中国那个拿刀屠杀的一样，发生在小学，另人悲愤。
不少人喊着要禁枪，也有政客提议。但是禁枪或者更严格的关于枪支控制的法律，可以
看看今天禁毒的结果----要吸毒的人还是照样吸，贩毒的照样，甚至都贩到学校里面了
（如果你家里有孩子读中学或者大学可以问问看）。那么是否该跟禁毒一样，用更严格
法律来打击枪支？还是打击使用枪支罪犯？或许严格的打击使用枪击犯罪的法律会更有
效，比如任何被确定为使用枪支的犯罪，不管是抢劫，强奸，贩毒，杀人等等，都应该
立刻死刑，斩立决，效果或许会更好，至少会大大减少那些被捉多次又被放出来的。毕
竟，刀枪本身没有什么错，是拿刀枪的罪犯有错。
讽刺的是，大型枪击案件发生的地方绝大多数是禁枪区，比如学校，除了警察和罪犯，
其他人不能有枪。有人说，这些犯罪分子就是想自杀了或者是疯子想闹个大新闻，所以
才去这些地方。我觉得这些人其实都是很罪恶的懦夫，但是他们不傻，所以选择了禁枪
区。如果就是想死了，或者闹个大新闻，拿枪去警察局扫一通，效果不是更好，也显得
更男人？答案很明显，他们不敢，也不是傻子，知道自己在警局得手的机会，所以选泽
了做懦夫，枪杀没有反击能力的孩子。
人人都能随便买枪或许不是解决问题的最佳答案，但是从遵纪守法的公民手里拿去一切
可以反击的武器显然是每个犯罪分子和独裁者所喜闻乐见的。宪法修正案保证公民有拥
有枪支的权利，主要不是像电视所说的--是用来打猎或者自卫的。或许，主要是因为建
国者受够了当时英国政府的独裁统治，用枪支和生命“退出了”大英帝国对殖民地统治
和剥削，在殖民地创建了自己的国度—今天的美利坚。对他们，枪支的重要性不言而喻：
"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms. The strongest reason
for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last
resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government" -- Thomas
Jefferson, 1 Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety
deserve neither liberty nor safety." -- Benjamin Franklin, Historical
Review of Pennsylvania, 1759.
"To disarm the people... was the best and most effectual way to enslave them
." -- George Mason, speech of June 14, 1788
"The very atmosphere of firearms anywhere and everywhere restrains evil
interference - they deserve a place of honor with all that's good" --
George Washington
What country can preserve its liberties, if its rulers are not warned from
time to time that his people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them
take arms. -- Thomas Jefferson, letter to Col. William S. Smith, 1787
"Guard with jealous attention the public liberty. Suspect everyone who
approaches that jewel. Unfortunately, nothing will preserve it but downright
force. Whenever you give up that force, you are inevitably ruined." --
Patrick Henry, speech of June 5 1788
The right of the citizens to keep and bear arms has justly been considered
as the palladium of the liberties of a republic; since it offers a strong
moral check against usurpation and arbitrary power of rulers; and will
generally, even if these are successful in the first instance, enable the
people to resist and triumph over them." -- Supreme Court Justice Joseph
Story of the John Marshall Court
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government
from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of
them. ----Thomas Jefferson
最后，毛太祖也深知武器的重要：Every Communist must grasp the truth, '
Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.' -- Mao Tse-tung, 1938,
inadvertently endorsing the Second Amendment. | | | p******e
发帖数: 247 | 11 手头有学术资源的，不如搜搜文献吧。一篇文章有bias，多看几篇不就知道大概了么？
不怕挑出文章的bias，怕的是读者看不到自己的bias。 | I*********t
发帖数: 5258 | 12 控枪有两种：限制携带和限制买卖。很多所谓的学术研究都有意无意的混淆了两者的关
系，炮制出一个又一个所谓的“联系”。 | X******2
发帖数: 5859 | 13 也许那些国家不禁枪的化犯罪率会更高。
【在 I*********t 的大作中提到】
: 这文章逻辑很奇怪，禁枪严格的国家犯罪率高，通常来说不就是因为犯罪率高所以政府
: 要采取行动来禁枪吗？而且相关性不代表因果，高犯罪率不等于高持枪犯罪率，完全不
: 能说明枪支对犯罪本身是增加还是减少，这还哈佛法学院呢，整个逻辑混乱的不得了了
: 。
| k**L
发帖数: 3630 | 14 没意思。那阿富汗应该是全世界最安全的国家了。个个家里AK，RPG一大堆，谁敢上门
？ | v*********n
发帖数: 3983 | 15 还有以色列。世界最适合养小孩最安全的地方。
【在 k**L 的大作中提到】
: 没意思。那阿富汗应该是全世界最安全的国家了。个个家里AK，RPG一大堆，谁敢上门
: ？
| p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 16 這兩個犯罪學家不會做回歸？
Journal
its
counterparts
【在 x******k 的大作中提到】
: http://www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/jlpp/Vol30_No2_KatesMa
: Harvard Study: Gun Control Is Counterproductive
: The study, which just appeared in Volume 30, Number 2 of the Harvard Journal
: of Law & Public Policy (pp. 649-694), set out to answer the question in its
: title: "Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder and Suicide? A Review of
: International and Some Domestic Evidence." Contrary to conventional wisdom,
: and the sniffs of our more sophisticated and generally anti-gun counterparts
: across the pond, the answer is "no." And not just no, as in there is no
: correlation between gun ownership and violent crime, but an emphatic no,
: showing a negative correlation: as gun ownership increases, murder and
| g*****x
发帖数: 3283 | 17 没有control的实验
Journal
its
counterparts
【在 x******k 的大作中提到】
: http://www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/jlpp/Vol30_No2_KatesMa
: Harvard Study: Gun Control Is Counterproductive
: The study, which just appeared in Volume 30, Number 2 of the Harvard Journal
: of Law & Public Policy (pp. 649-694), set out to answer the question in its
: title: "Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder and Suicide? A Review of
: International and Some Domestic Evidence." Contrary to conventional wisdom,
: and the sniffs of our more sophisticated and generally anti-gun counterparts
: across the pond, the answer is "no." And not just no, as in there is no
: correlation between gun ownership and violent crime, but an emphatic no,
: showing a negative correlation: as gun ownership increases, murder and
| s********8
发帖数: 517 | | x******k
发帖数: 847 | 19 conduct a controlled trial?
Good luck.
【在 g*****x 的大作中提到】
: 没有control的实验
:
: Journal
: its
: counterparts
| x****o
发帖数: 29677 | 20
毒品难道要合法化？
【在 x******k 的大作中提到】
: 社会科学，甚至很多自然科学都是利用相关关系下结论，有多少是真正通过大量试验证
: 明因果的？讨论数据也不能选择性失明啊。
: 毒品被认为毒害身心，毒害社会，所以联邦政府发动禁毒，毒品战争。每年数十亿美元
: 用在这上面，监狱里关N多万的吸毒，贩毒的人。每个学校都标为无毒区，今天效果怎
: 么样？我想大家心里都有答案。
: 很不幸现在又有人拿枪屠杀了，跟中国那个拿刀屠杀的一样，发生在小学，另人悲愤。
: 不少人喊着要禁枪，也有政客提议。但是禁枪或者更严格的关于枪支控制的法律，可以
: 看看今天禁毒的结果----要吸毒的人还是照样吸，贩毒的照样，甚至都贩到学校里面了
: （如果你家里有孩子读中学或者大学可以问问看）。那么是否该跟禁毒一样，用更严格
: 法律来打击枪支？还是打击使用枪支罪犯？或许严格的打击使用枪击犯罪的法律会更有
|
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