T****8
发帖数: 505 | | T****8
发帖数: 505 | 2 嚷嚷了好几年“狼来了，狼来了”， 这次真的来啦？ | T****8
发帖数: 505 | 3 The Ten Housing Markets That Will Collapse This Year
by Michael B. Sauter, Douglas A. McIntyre
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
tweet61EmailPrintprovided by
The real estate market is already in the deepest depression in modern U.S.
history. If you think it can't get any worse, think again. In several cities
, the real estate market is about to drop even more. Home values in many of
those cities, such as Las Vegas, have already collapsed as unemployment has
shot higher. And with no hope of quick recovery, housing prices are expected
to continue to fall. 24/7 Wall St. identified ten housing markets that are
expected to drop by at least another 10% by 2012.
More from 24/7 Wall St.:
• The Ten Most Valuable Companies in America
• Great American Stores Starving for Customers
• The Nine States Slashing Unemployment Benefits
Methodology: We used data from the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes, which track
real estate activity in 380 cities. We selected those that are forecast to
have the largest percent price drop between the first quarter of this year
and the first quarter of next. We added several other pieces of information
to our city-by-city information, including June unemployment levels, median
household income, and when home prices are expected to reach their troughs
in each market.
Median household income in these cities tended to be near the U.S. median,
and in some cases well below. We expected to find high unemployment in these
cities. This turned out to be the case. In all but one of the cities we
examined, unemployment was well above the national average. The rate was
over 18% in two of the cities. This link between unemployment and expected
future drop in home prices shows again how insidious the housing price
problem is.
Home prices fell from all-time highs in 2006. Home equity tapped by second
mortgages had been a tremendous source of income then for families who used
it for retirement saving, education, and simple consumer purchases. Three
years later, many of those homes were worth less than their mortgages. A
large population of homeowners still owed a second mortgage. The burden of
those two home loans happened to come at a time when national unemployment
rose from 4% in the mid-2000s to 10%. The mix of unemployment and high
mortgage payments ripped the home market apart.
The ten markets on the 24/7 Wall St. list of "Housing Markets That Will
Collapse This Year," and several others like them, may not see a full
recovery in home prices for years. Inventories in these markets tend to be
large. Demand tends to be low as the unemployed cannot be buyers. Finally,
fear of further price drops all exacerbate the problem. No person or
organization, including the federal government, has been able to help
support the housing market, although the Administration has tried. Not a
single plan has built even a thin net under home values, despite the best
efforts of the best economic minds in the world.
1. Naples, Florida
Expected price drop: -16.6%
Median family income: $62,800 (137th highest)
Unemployment rate: 10.5%
Median home price: $225,000 (40th highest)
Projected to hit lowest level: Q4 2012
Like much of southwest Florida, Naples was one of the fastest-growing
communities in the country as it prepared for the millions of baby boomers
on the cusp of retirement. When the housing bubble burst, however, the
thousands of construction projects for condominiums and retirement
communities were halted or lost money, and home values plummeted. From peak
home value in 2006, prices dropped by 55%. They are expected to keep falling
through next year more than any major city in the country. By Q1 2012, home
values will drop an additional 16.6%, or nearly $40,000.
2. Riverside-San Bernardino, California
Expected price drop: -15.6%
Median family income: $59,700 (190th highest)
Unemployment rate: 13.7%
Median home price: $181,000 (70th highest)
Projected to hit lowest level: Q1 2012
Like so many industrial cities in California, Riverside-San Bernadino is
being affected by the recession and housing crisis more than most other
parts of the U.S. Unemployment has hit 13.7%, home vacancy and rental
vacancy rates are high, and home values are plummeting. Median home prices
are down more than 55% from their peak in 2006. By the beginning of next
year, prices are expected to drop an additional 15.6%, or nearly $30,000.
3. Las Vegas, Nevada
Expected price drop: -13.9%
Median family income: $58,900 (196th lowest)
Unemployment rate: 12.4%
Median home price: $140,000 (90th lowest)
Projected to hit lowest level: Q4 2012
Las Vegas was one of the center points of the meteoric growth in the first
half of the 2000s, only to be followed by a catastrophic fall in the second
half. Between 2008 and 2011, home prices in the city dropped by 42.3%, the
second greatest decline in the country. Although home values in the city are
already more than 58% off their peak, they are projected by Case-Shiller to
drop an additional 13.9% by Q1 2012, and then 6.3% more by Q1 2013.
4. Detroit, Michigan
Expected price drop: -13.4%
Median family income: $49,000 (47th lowest)
Unemployment rate: 12.7%
Median home price: $42,000 (the lowest median home price)
Projected to hit lowest level: Q2 2012
Since the recession began, Detroit has been the horror story for plummeting
home values, foreclosures, vacancies, and unemployment. To date, Detroit's
median home price of $42,000 is the lowest among all 385 major metropolitan
areas. While the Motor City has been languishing for some time before the
recession, the drop in home value has been more steady, as opposed to the
rapid drop-offs seen in cities in Florida, Nevada, and California. Detroit's
already record-low values are expected to drop an additional 13.4% by the
first quarter of 2012.
5. Merced, California
Expected price drop: -13.2%
Median family income: $42,900 (8th lowest)
Unemployment rate: 18.6%
Median home price: $112,000 (38th lowest)
Projected to hit lowest level: Q2 2012
Merced, California, has a median family income of just $42,900, placing it
among the ten poorest major cities in the country. In 2008, the city's
property lost 46.1% of its value. This was the second-greatest depreciation
in home value for a city since at least 1980. The city's median home prices
are expected to drop an additional 13.2% by the beginning of next year.
6. Miami, Florida
Expected price drop: -13%
Median family income: $47,800 (32nd lowest)
Unemployment rate: 13.4%
Median home price: $175,000 (76th highest)
Projected to hit lowest level: Q2 2013
At 13.4%, Miami has one of the highest unemployment rates of any major
American city. Home values are above average, but are down by more than 50%
since 2006. Partially as a result of the staggering unemployment rate, the
value of the city's homes are projected to decrease by another 13% by the
first quarter of 2013. What's more disturbing: Prices will then likely fall
an additional 10.1%. If this second drop occurs, it will be by far the
greatest depreciation of property values in the country in an area already
decimated by current low prices.
7. El Centro, California
Expected price drop: -12.1%
Median family income: $43,300 (10th lowest)
Unemployment rate: 28.6%
Median home price: $130,000 (70th lowest)
Projected to hit lowest level: Q1 2012
El Centro, California, is located five miles from the Mexican border, and is
one of the poorest cities in the country. Median income is just $43,300 per
family, the tenth-lowest in the U.S. Unemployment is at a staggering 28.6%.
Between 2006 and 2011, home prices decreased by more than 50%. According to
a report in the Imperial Valley Press, one home was sold in the El Centro
area before the recession for $390,000. In 2009, that home was listed at $
200,000. Prices are expected to drop an additional 12.1% by the first
quarter of 2012.
8. Salinas, California
Expected price drop: -11.8%
Median family income: $62,100 (145th highest)
Unemployment rate: 12.8%
Median home price: $240,000 (34th highest)
Projected to hit lowest level: Q2 2012
Salinas, California, is a small coastal city located 25 miles south of San
Jose. Since 2006, the median value of the 125,000 houses there decreased in
value by more than 61%. This is the fourth biggest decline from peak home
value among all major American cities. More than 40% of this drop occurred
in 2009, the year after the housing bubble burst. Unemployment in the city
is at 12.8%, well above the national average of 9.2%. Several companies in
the area, including food processing company Romco, expect to continue to lay
off workers in the coming months, which should serve to further depress
home values.
9. Bethesda, Maryland
Expected price drop: -11.5%
Median family income: $114,100 (the highest)
Unemployment rate: 5.1%
Median home price: $417,000 (5th highest)
Projected to hit lowest level: Q3 2012
Bethesda, the extremely wealthy D.C. suburb, has the highest median family
income in the country — $114,100. It also has the fifth highest median home
price, at $417,000. That position may change, however, as Case-Shiller
projects home values will drop by more than $60,000 by next year.
10. Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Expected price drop: -11.1%
Median family income: $58,800 (194th highest)
Unemployment rate: 11.8%
Median home price: $196,000 (55th highest)
Projected to hit lowest level: Q2 2013
Since 2006, home prices in Fort Lauderdale have dropped by nearly 50%. A
full 28% of that drop occurred in 2009 alone. As was the case throughout
most of Florida, the collapse of the housing bubble decimated the
construction-based economy. The unemployment rate of nearly 12% is evidence
of the construction sector's disastrous decline. The value of the 686,000
homes in the Fort Lauderdale area is expected to get even worse through at
least the second quarter of 2013. Between Q1 2011 and Q1 2012, the median
home price is projected to decline an additional 11.1%. Between 2012 and
2013, that number will further decrease by 8.7%.
___ | h*****o
发帖数: 1476 | 4 对有房者是坏事，没房打算买房的都巴不得狠狠降价。
这政府预算砍了，DC这一带受冲击最严重，工作机会少了很多，很多人搬离DC，房源充
足，DC这一带很多地方房价在未来可遇见两年内一路走低。。。 | m*******r
发帖数: 8950 | 5 ---
9. Bethesda, Maryland
Bethesda, the extremely wealthy D.C. suburb, has the highest median family
income in the country — $114,100. It also has the fifth highest median home
price, at $417,000. That position may change, however, as Case-Shiller
projects home values will drop by more than $60,000 by next year.
---
这个原因很不靠谱。因为Case-Shiller预期降60K，所以BETHESDA要降11%。IT IS NON-
SENSE。
现在，就象海漂说的，DC的房价主要看政府怎么砍预算了。 | T****8
发帖数: 505 | 6 这还用看？政府砍预算是铁板钉钉的事了。最近跟一个NIH的朋友聊天，他的LAB预计明
年有10%～30%的cut. 俺们这里的IT support 最近从三个变两个，据他们说也是在准备
预算裁剪， 走了就不增加了。
home
NON-
【在 m*******r 的大作中提到】
: ---
: 9. Bethesda, Maryland
: Bethesda, the extremely wealthy D.C. suburb, has the highest median family
: income in the country — $114,100. It also has the fifth highest median home
: price, at $417,000. That position may change, however, as Case-Shiller
: projects home values will drop by more than $60,000 by next year.
: ---
: 这个原因很不靠谱。因为Case-Shiller预期降60K，所以BETHESDA要降11%。IT IS NON-
: SENSE。
: 现在，就象海漂说的，DC的房价主要看政府怎么砍预算了。
| m*******r
发帖数: 8950 | 7 NIH的日子，最近几年好象一直不怎么好过。裁剪预算，主要还是看DOD、DOE这些大头
是否受影响。
我在以前的帖子已经说过了，BUDGET CUT的苗头已经有了，但到底有多厉害，还很难说。
【在 T****8 的大作中提到】
: 这还用看？政府砍预算是铁板钉钉的事了。最近跟一个NIH的朋友聊天，他的LAB预计明
: 年有10%～30%的cut. 俺们这里的IT support 最近从三个变两个，据他们说也是在准备
: 预算裁剪， 走了就不增加了。
:
: home
: NON-
| h*****o
发帖数: 1476 | 8 department of energy 怎么成大头了？DOE一年是不是只有两百多亿.DOD六七千亿（还不包括iraq和阿富汗战争？）。coast guard现在属于department of homeland security， coast guard也是armed force，在９１１之前好像也在DOD下面。即使现在，coast guard和navy联系也很紧密。national guard的预算是不是来自各自的州政府？如果这些armed force都加到DOD里面，那数额很大的。
美国的超级大国地位靠的就是科技霸权，金融霸权和军事霸权，一样都不能少。军方不能砍太多。
说。
【在 m*******r 的大作中提到】
: NIH的日子，最近几年好象一直不怎么好过。裁剪预算，主要还是看DOD、DOE这些大头
: 是否受影响。
: 我在以前的帖子已经说过了，BUDGET CUT的苗头已经有了，但到底有多厉害，还很难说。
| T****8
发帖数: 505 | 9 They can't get anywhere close to the 1.5 trillion they want to cut without
touching DOD, so DOD and Social Security will be on the table at the end.
DOD doubled its budget in the past ten years, so it's about time to cut it
in half again.
还不包括iraq和阿富汗战争？）。coast guard现在属于department of homeland
security， coast guard也是armed force，在９１１之前好像也在DOD下面。即使现在
，coast guard和navy联系也很紧密。national guard的预算是不是来自各自的州政府
？如果这些armed force都加到DOD里面，那数额很大的。
不能砍太多。
【在 h*****o 的大作中提到】
: department of energy 怎么成大头了？DOE一年是不是只有两百多亿.DOD六七千亿（还不包括iraq和阿富汗战争？）。coast guard现在属于department of homeland security， coast guard也是armed force，在９１１之前好像也在DOD下面。即使现在，coast guard和navy联系也很紧密。national guard的预算是不是来自各自的州政府？如果这些armed force都加到DOD里面，那数额很大的。
: 美国的超级大国地位靠的就是科技霸权，金融霸权和军事霸权，一样都不能少。军方不能砍太多。
:
: 说。
| h*****o
发帖数: 1476 | 10 如果从social security和medicare／medicaid等福利里大砍的话，DC这一带相对受到
的冲击小点，毕竟这些东西是全国范围的。但显然砍的很多会来自discretionary
spending，这对DC的就业机会很受影响，DC这一带集中了大量的联邦政府工作机会，还
有众多依赖政府合同生存的公司，这是DC这一带的经济特色。除了政府，这一带没啥别
的了，没工业没农业。。。 | | | h*****o
发帖数: 1476 | 11 我一直很反对砍social security，SSA本来该是独立的agency，本来不该和其它的联邦
预算混在一起花。national debt没有１分钱是来自social security的，恰恰相反，倒
是政府从social security里面拿钱填补其他漏洞。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/33691789_0.html
【在 T****8 的大作中提到】
: They can't get anywhere close to the 1.5 trillion they want to cut without
: touching DOD, so DOD and Social Security will be on the table at the end.
: DOD doubled its budget in the past ten years, so it's about time to cut it
: in half again.
:
: 还不包括iraq和阿富汗战争？）。coast guard现在属于department of homeland
: security， coast guard也是armed force，在９１１之前好像也在DOD下面。即使现在
: ，coast guard和navy联系也很紧密。national guard的预算是不是来自各自的州政府
: ？如果这些armed force都加到DOD里面，那数额很大的。
: 不能砍太多。
| h*****o
发帖数: 1476 | 12 The United States Social Security Administration (SSA) is an independent
agency of the United States federal government that administers Social
Security | T****8
发帖数: 505 | 13 No one actually dare to cut SS, but it is not going to sustain itself in the
long run. I mean it's just very simple, people on average take out why more
from SS than they paid in during working years. So, something has to be
done.
【在 h*****o 的大作中提到】
: 我一直很反对砍social security，SSA本来该是独立的agency，本来不该和其它的联邦
: 预算混在一起花。national debt没有１分钱是来自social security的，恰恰相反，倒
: 是政府从social security里面拿钱填补其他漏洞。
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/33691789_0.html
| x**n
发帖数: 12542 | 14 继续提高退休年龄，到75岁。。。
the
more
【在 T****8 的大作中提到】
: No one actually dare to cut SS, but it is not going to sustain itself in the
: long run. I mean it's just very simple, people on average take out why more
: from SS than they paid in during working years. So, something has to be
: done.
| h*****o
发帖数: 1476 | 15 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectan
我认识一个工作一辈子退休后两个礼拜就死了的老美。
【在 x**n 的大作中提到】
: 继续提高退休年龄，到75岁。。。
:
: the
: more
| x**n
发帖数: 12542 | 16 嗯，啥都是别人的，就命是自己的。
【在 h*****o 的大作中提到】
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectan
: 我认识一个工作一辈子退休后两个礼拜就死了的老美。
| T****8
发帖数: 505 | 17 为了拿回SS，一定要活到99，嘿嘿。
国内退休的人到都挺舒服。我妈今天电话说退休金又每个月涨了一千块，滋润极了。
【在 h*****o 的大作中提到】
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectan
: 我认识一个工作一辈子退休后两个礼拜就死了的老美。
|
|
