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发帖数: 1445 | 2 Link to the paper:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741
One year after its emergence, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus
2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become so widespread that there is little hope of
elimination. There are, however, several other human coronaviruses that are
endemic and cause multiple reinfections that engender sufficient immunity to
protect against severe adult disease. By making assumptions about acquired
immunity from its already endemic relatives, Lavine et al. developed a model
with which to analyze the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 into endemicity. The
model accounts for SARS-CoV-2's age-structured disease profile and assesses
the impact of vaccination. The transition from epidemic to endemic dynamics
is associated with a shift in the age distribution of primary infections to
younger age groups, which in turn depends on how fast the virus spreads.
Longer-lasting sterilizing immunity will slow the transition to endemicity.
Depending on the type of immune response it engenders, a vaccine could
accelerate establishment of a state of mild disease endemicity. |
