USANews版 - Eradication, Sporadic, and Endemic |
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发帖数: 1445 | 1 Covid will not be eradicated. This is already scientific consensus.
Covid currently is endemic in US, UK.
Sporadic in China, Australia, New Zealand.
It will likely becoming endemic everywhere in the world once vaccines are
all deployed and travel restrictions lifted.
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson1/section11.html
Lesson 1: Introduction to Epidemiology
Section 11: Epidemic Disease Occurrence
Level of disease
The amount of a particular disease that is usually present in a community is
referred to as the baseline or endemic level of the disease. This level is
not necessarily the desired level, which may in fact be zero, but rather is
the observed level. In the absence of intervention and assuming that the
level is not high enough to deplete the pool of susceptible persons, the
disease may continue to occur at this level indefinitely. Thus, the baseline
level is often regarded as the expected level of the disease.
While some diseases are so rare in a given population that a single case
warrants an epidemiologic investigation (e.g., rabies, plague, polio), other
diseases occur more commonly so that only deviations from the norm warrant
investigation. Sporadic refers to a disease that occurs infrequently and
irregularly. Endemic refers to the constant presence and/or usual prevalence
of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area.
Hyperendemic refers to persistent, high levels of disease occurrence. |
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