s******1
发帖数: 42 | 1 发在OPINION， 算是平衡文章
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-leading-trump-2020-polls-expect-
election-day-be-repeat-ncna1245282
Keith Koffler Biden is leading Trump in 2020 polls. But expect Election Day
to be a repeat of 2016.
Biden and his campaign are making mistakes that will ensure little of this
matters. And the polls are almost certainly wrong again.
Image: U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at Laughlin/
Bullhead International Airport in Arizona
President Donald Trump at the end of his campaign rally in Bullhead City,
Ariz., on Oct. 28, 2020.Jonathan Ernst / Reuters
Nov. 1, 2020, 5:30 PM CST
By Keith Koffler
Contrary to the prevailing wisdom among the cognoscenti, history and current
circumstances suggest President Donald Trump is going to defeat former Vice
President Joe Biden — for some of the very same reasons he came from
behind in 2016 to shock the Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
It is understandable why conventional wisdom is getting this wrong again.
It is understandable why conventional wisdom is getting this wrong again.
Trump is down in the polls, the nation’s demographics are continuing to
change in ways unfavorable to Trump and Republicans, the coronavirus has
wrought death and economic destruction throughout the land and Trump’s
personality provokes stormy oceans of antipathy — perhaps most crucially
among women and suburban voters.
But Biden and his campaign are making mistakes that will ensure little of
this matters. And the polls are almost certainly wrong again. The only
question is by how much.
Follow @NBCNewsTHINK on Twitter starting at 8 p.m. on Nov. 3 as we highlight
what our contributors are THINKing about Election Evening.
The economy is turning around, playing to Trump’s strength. The president
has made significant outreach to minorities, and a relative handful of Black
voters switching from Democrat to Republican could help him secure states
like Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina. Not
to mention that Trump — unlike Biden — is actually campaigning for the job.
Covid, Covid, Covid: 'Thousands gathered' for Trump campaign rally in Tampa,
Florida
OCT. 30, 202002:00
Think of it. Clinton wandering around the woods near her home in Chappaqua,
N.Y., kicking herself for not appearing even once in Wisconsin. Meanwhile
Biden is only now belatedly hitting the trail — a little. This is a risky
experiment. Every modern presidential candidate has traveled as much as
humanly possible — and then traveled some more. Meeting and speaking to
voters — responsibly — is key. Biden is exploring the political equivalent
of eating consommé with a fork.
Campaigning does not just reach voters. It imparts a sense of vigor,
industriousness and sociability that people want in a leader. I don’t think
Trump should be drawing so many people to celebrations that feature sardine
-packed, mask-less supporters whose health is at risk. But his rallies
suggest that better days are ahead — the theme of most winning presidential
campaigns.
Thursday, there was a significant indicator that happy days may indeed soon
be here again. The Commerce Department released the U.S. gross domestic
product number for the third quarter, showing growth rate of around 33
percent. This will feed directly into Trump’s argument that he is best
positioned to save the economy.
Trump complains endlessly about mail-in ballots, ignoring that they may help
him. Many more Democrats are voting by mail than Republicans. But these
ballots are more likely to be rejected because mistakes were made filling
them out or they were late — or simply got lost.
And while the Covid-19 numbers are rising, this does not necessarily benefit
Biden. Trump has been arguing that it is time to open up the economy and
stop worrying so much about the spread of the virus. People have pandemic
fatigue, and they are eager to go back to their regular, pre-Covid lives,
even if this sometimes means endangering themselves or others.
And not only is Biden staying home, his army of volunteers and canvassers
have been cooped up as well, doing outreach on their parents’ Wi-Fi instead
of out seeing voters. The Biden campaign only recently emerged from the
basement — with the exception of its leader — after Trump’s operatives
had already spent months contacting voters on their doorsteps. Refusing to
mobilize voters by showing up in their neighborhoods early and often is
another likely ill-fated Biden experiment in ignoring modern campaign
practice.
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You also should not underestimate the vast amount of damage created by Biden
’s second debate suggestion that he would eventually eliminate the oil
industry. When moderator Kristen Welker asked him whether he would “close
down the oil industry,” Biden answered “Yes,” he would transition from it
. When Welker then asked why he would do that, he responded, “Because the
oil industry pollutes, significantly.”
Although the economy may be on the upswing, the American public is still
suffering, making this is a gaffe of historic proportions. Biden later
walked it back, insisting, “We’re not getting rid of fossil fuels for a
long time.” But his intention is clear. At the very least, the comment
could well lose him Pennsylvania — where fracking has created tens of
thousands of jobs.
Want more articles like this? Follow THINK on Instagram to get updates on
the week's most important political analysis
Then there are the polls. Pollsters insist their surveys have been adjusted
from 2016 to include more demographics that support Trump — though they may
harbor new flaws. They are still unlikely to capture the vast enthusiasm
gap between Trump and Biden voters and fail to pick up the “shy Trump
voters,” — people afraid to admit they back Trump — who may be shyer than
ever.
The shy voter phenomenon could prove even more pronounced in 2020 than in
2016.
A bubbly volunteer calls on the phone and wants to know whom you are voting
for. Do you want to admit to this person, perhaps an enthusiast of Sen.
Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or at least, a Taylor Swift
fan, that you support the putatively racist, misogynist, greedy, white
supremacist Trump? Of course not. “Biden!” You say. “Green New Deal!
Leave me alone, goodbye!”
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The shy voter phenomenon could prove even more pronounced in 2020 than in
2016. You could at least explain not voting for Clinton. She was unlikable
to so many. Though inspiring fewer strong feelings, Biden is, at least, not
as easy to despise. What’s more, Trump has been vilified for the past four
years, giving voters less of an excuse to admit they’re still voting for
him.
This could be particularly true for Black and Latino voters, who may not
want to acknowledge supporting someone they have been told they must oppose.
Expect Trump to far outpace his pathetic showing among Black voters in 2016
, particularly Black men. Prior to the pandemic, Black unemployment had
declined to record low levels. Trump has also signed and promoted major
criminal justice reform legislation, resulting in the release of thousands
of prisoners, including many African Americans. | s******1
发帖数: 42 | 2 美国大选在即，《华盛顿观察家报》资深编辑科夫勒（Keith Koffler）11月1日在NBC
新闻网发表社论表示，本次大选共和党候选人川普将击败民主党候选人拜登，「民调结
果几乎肯定又错了」，原因与2016年击败希拉蕊类似。
科夫勒指出，上周美国商务部发布的第三季美国国内生产总值，显示成长率约33％，该
数据证明川普政府有能力带领美国经济。拜登则在第二次辩论会上表态支持「关闭石油
工业」，科夫勒认为，这个表态恐怕会让拜登失去宾州选民的支持。
科夫勒提到，拜登和川普两人在竞选的造势活动参与度有明显的差异，候选人参加竞选
活动不仅是接触选民，川普努力各州趴趴走，拜登仗著民调优势，选前常搞神隐忽视竞
选活动，可能是一个失败的尝试。
科夫勒最后总结，「隐性选民」经过川普四年执政的增加，尤其是非裔和拉丁裔，这点
使民调无法调查到川普选民，目前川普的民调并不像看起来那么糟，与2016年选前落后
希拉蕊的程度相同，川普将再次赢得选举。
《华盛顿观察家报》资深编辑科夫勒（Keith Koffler）在《NBC》发表社论认为川普将
胜选。图：翻摄《NBC》新闻网 | a****1
发帖数: 634 | 3 文章讲了一大堆关于川普为何应该赢到原因，这些通通 beside the point，文不对题
。文章标题是说民调这次又会凸槌（出错），你就应该解释为何民调又重蹈覆辙，而不
是花篇幅说川普为何会赢。
这种就跟那个浪里白条还有 TracyXxxx 一样的错误，写一大堆却抓不住重点，思虑不
够组织条理，缺乏大局观。
我都差点放弃读下去了，才看到作者终于解释民调的问题在哪里：shy voter。Whew!
松了一口气，“他终于想到重点了！” | t*****n
发帖数: 2578 | 4 民调问题主要在屁股歪了，不是shy voter，跟主媒一个问题
这种找客观原因的找一辈子也没用。 | t*****n
发帖数: 2578 | 5 可是，主媒，左逼从来不会承认它们屁股歪了，就算媒体90%以上的报道是反对川普的。
所以民调没救了。只能狠狠打它们脸。
4年前就被狠狠打脸，现在看来狗改不了吃屎，它们一点没改。 |
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