a****k
发帖数: 23 | 1 本人在蓝州，最近申请枪证人数暴增，朋友比我晚了两三天现在还没约上打指纹。左X
们最好希望这些人都是一边偷偷买枪一边投猪党BLM/defundpolice的精分😜。
本人倒是so far没收到pollster电话，要是收到了就跟文章里某人说的，要么挂电话要
么骗它说投猪党了事。老子投谁票关你鸟事。
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-
officials-316457.
By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one
-term president. The economy is a wreck, the coronavirus persists, and his
poll numbers have deteriorated.
But throughout the Republican Party’s vast organization in the states, the
operational approach to Trump’s re-election campaign is hardening around a
fundamentally different view.
Interviews with more than 50 state, district and county Republican Party
chairs depict a version of the electoral landscape that is no worse for
Trump than six months ago — and possibly even slightly better. According to
this view, the coronavirus is on its way out and the economy is coming back
. Polls are unreliable, Joe Biden is too frail to last, and the media still
doesn’t get it.
“The more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for
Trump,” said Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C., one of
several rural counties in that swing state that shifted from supporting
Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. “We’re calling him ‘Teflon Trump.
’ Nothing’s going to stick, because if anything, it’s getting more
exciting than it was in 2016.”
This year, Stephens said, “We’re thinking landslide.”
Five months before the election, many state and county Republican Party
chairs predict a close election. Yet from the Eastern seaboard to the West
Coast and the battlegrounds in between, there is an overriding belief that,
just as Trump defied political gravity four years ago, there’s no reason he
won’t do it again.
Andrew Hitt, the state party chairman in Wisconsin, said that during the
height of public attention on the coronavirus, in late March and early April
, internal polling suggested “some sagging off where we wanted to be.”
But now, he said, “Things are coming right back where we want them … That
focus on the economy and on re-opening and bringing America back is
resonating with people.”
In Ohio, Jane Timken, the state party chair, said she sees no evidence of
support for Trump slipping. Jennifer Carnahan, the chairwoman of the
Minnesota Republican Party, said the same. And Lawrence Tabas, the chairman
of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, went so far as to predict that Trump
would not only carry his state, but beat Biden by more than 100,000 votes —
more than twice the margin he mustered in 2016.
“Contrary to what may be portrayed in the media, there’s still a high
level of support out there,” said Kyle Hupfer, chairman of the Indiana
Republican Party. He described himself as “way more” optimistic than he
was at this point in 2016.
The Republican Party apparatus that Trump heads in 2020 is considerably
different than the one that looked at him warily in 2016. At the state level
, many chairs who were considered insufficiently committed to the president
were ousted and replaced with loyalists. But their assessments would be
easier to dismiss as spin if the perception of Trump’s durability did not
reach so far beyond GOP officialdom.
When pollsters ask Americans who they think will win the election — not who
they are voting for themselves — Trump performs relatively well. And if
anything, Trump’s field officers appear more bullish than Trump and some of
his advisers. Even the president, while lamenting what he views as unfair
treatment by his adversaries, has privately expressed concerns about his
poll numbers and publicly seemed to acknowledge he is down.
“If I wasn’t constantly harassed for three years by fake and illegal
investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia, and the Impeachment Hoax, I’d be up
by 25 points on Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats,” he said on
Twitter last week. “Very unfair, but it is what it is!!!”
Yet in the states, the Republican Party's rank-and-file are largely
unconvinced that the president is precariously positioned in his reelection
bid.
“The narrative from the Beltway is not accurate,” said Joe Bush, chairman
of the Republican Party in Muskegon County, Mich., which Trump lost narrowly
in 2016. “Here in the heartland, everybody is still very confident, more
than ever.”
At the center of the disconnect between Trump loyalists’ assessment of the
state of the race and the one based on public opinion polls is a distrust of
polling itself. Republicans see an industry that maliciously oversamples
Democrats or under-samples the white, non-college educated voters who are
most likely to support Trump. They say it is hard to know who likely voters
are this far from the election. And like many Democrats, they suspect Trump
supporters disproportionately hang up on pollsters, under-counting his level
of support.
Ted Lovdahl, chairman of the Republican Party in Minnesota’s 8th
Congressional District, said he has friends who will tell pollsters “just
exactly the opposite of what they feel.”
When he asked one of them why, his friend told him, “I don’t like some of
their questions. It’s none of their business what I do.”
Recalling that polls four years ago failed to predict the outcome, Jack
Brill, acting chairman of the local Republican Party in Sarasota County, Fla
., said, “I used to be an avid poll watcher until 2016 … Guess what? I’m
not watching polls.”
Instead, as they prepare for a post-lockdown summer of party picnics and
parades, Republican Party organizers sense the beginnings of an economic
recovery that, if sustained, is likely to power Trump to a second term. They
also see a more immediate opening in the civil unrest surrounding the death
of George Floyd.
“The other side is overplaying its hand, going down roads like defunding
the police and nonsense like that."
Michael Burke, chairman of the Republican Party in Pinal County, Arizona
“The further and further the Democrats tack left, and the further you get
to where it’s the defunding the police,” said Scott Frostman, GOP chairman
in Wisconsin’s Sauk County, which Obama won easily in 2012 but flipped to
Trump four years later. “I think we have the opportunity as Republicans to
talk to people a little bit more about some common sense things.”
Biden has rejected a national movement to defund police departments. But
elections are often painted in broad strokes, and local party officials
expect Trump — with his law and order rhetoric — will be the beneficiary
of what they see as Democratic overreach.
“The other side is overplaying its hand, going down roads like defunding
the police and nonsense like that,” said Michael Burke, chairman of the
Republican Party in Pinal County, Arizona, a Trump stronghold in 2016.” “
Most of the American people are looking like that saying, ‘Really?’”
By most objective measures, Trump will need something to drag Biden down. He
has fallen behind Biden in most swing state polls, and he lags the former
vice president nationally by more than 8 percentage points, according to the
RealClearPolitics polling average. A Gallup poll last week put Trump’s
approval rating at just 39 percent, down 10 percentage points from a month
ago. Democrats appear competitive not only in expected swing states, but in
places such as Iowa and Ohio, which Trump won easily in 2016.
Little of that data is registering, however. State and local officials point
to Trump’s financial and organizational advantages and see Biden as a weak
opponent. They’re eager for Trump to eviscerate him in debates. “While
the Democrats have been spending their time playing Paper Rock Scissors on
who their nominee is going to be, we’ve been building an army,” said Terry
Lathan, chair of the Alabama Republican Party.
James Dickey, chairman of the Texas Republican Party, said it took Biden “
days to figure out how to even successfully operate, or communicate out of a
bunker” and that he “has clearly not been able to deal with any real
challenging interview.”
Local officials brush off criticism of Trump by Republican fixtures such as
former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who said last week that Trump “lies
all the time.” They dismiss press accounts of the race. Dennis Coxwell,
the chairman of Georgia’s Warren County Republican Party, said: “It’s
gotten to a point where I cannot believe anything that the news media says.”
Many admire Trump’s bluntest instincts — the same ones that have cost him
among women and independent voters, according to polls. “The left called
George Bush all kinds of names and just savaged him all the time … and Bush
never said a word,” said Burke, who worked for Trump in the late 1980s and
early 1990s overseeing his fleet of helicopters. “It was frustrating for
those of us on the right. Now a guy comes along, you attack him, you’re
getting it back double barrel. And everybody’s sitting around saying, ‘
Yeah, that’s right, give it to ‘em.’”
And most of all, they put their confidence in an expectation that the
economy will improve by fall.
Doyle Webb, chairman of the Arkansas Republican Party and general counsel to
the Republican National Committee, said the only concern that he would have
about Trump’s reelection prospects is “if the economy had another
downturn.”
“But I don’t see that happening,” Webb said.
Instead, he predicted an improving job outlook and a return to “the old
Clinton mantra: ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’”
“I think that people will be happy,” Webb said, “and [Trump] will be re-
elected.”
It’s a widely-held view. In Pennsylvania last week, Veral Salmon, the
Republican Party chairman of the state’s bellwether Erie County, measured
enthusiasm for Trump by the large number of requests he has received for
Trump yard signs. In Maine, Melvin Williams, chairman of the Lincoln County
Republican Committee, saw it in a population he said is “getting sick of
this bullshit,” blaming coronavirus-related shutdowns on Democrats. And
across the country, in heavily Democratic San Francisco, John Dennis, the
chairman of the local GOP, was encouraged by the decreasing number of emails
from the “Never Trump” crowd.
Not in his city, but nationally, Dennis said, “I’m pretty confident that [
Trump] is going to pull it off.” | c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 2 把你的脑袋从脚后跟里拿出来再用一次吧，蓝人都被逼得申枪了，那是对现状多不满？
这个帐是算在谁头上，BLM， 还是川肺？
X
one
the
【在 a****k 的大作中提到】
: 本人在蓝州，最近申请枪证人数暴增，朋友比我晚了两三天现在还没约上打指纹。左X
: 们最好希望这些人都是一边偷偷买枪一边投猪党BLM/defundpolice的精分😜。
: 本人倒是so far没收到pollster电话，要是收到了就跟文章里某人说的，要么挂电话要
: 么骗它说投猪党了事。老子投谁票关你鸟事。
: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-
: officials-316457.
: By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one
: -term president. The economy is a wreck, the coronavirus persists, and his
: poll numbers have deteriorated.
: But throughout the Republican Party’s vast organization in the states, the
| k********0
发帖数: 585 | 3 你说的很对，这些人买枪就怕川普派国民卫队到家抢东西。
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 把你的脑袋从脚后跟里拿出来再用一次吧，蓝人都被逼得申枪了，那是对现状多不满？
: 这个帐是算在谁头上，BLM， 还是川肺？
:
: X
: one
: the
| c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 4 大乱之下，大部分想的都是换人试试看，而不是维持原状。
【在 k********0 的大作中提到】
: 你说的很对，这些人买枪就怕川普派国民卫队到家抢东西。
| i**********a
发帖数: 1402 | 5 看门狗，你再展望一下
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 大乱之下，大部分想的都是换人试试看，而不是维持原状。
| k********0
发帖数: 585 | 6 再同意一次，毕竟这个社会革命家占大多数。
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 大乱之下，大部分想的都是换人试试看，而不是维持原状。
| j****l
发帖数: 3356 | 7 看来你觉得打砸抢要算川普头上？把你的脑袋从脚后跟里拿出来再用一次吧，解释一下
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 把你的脑袋从脚后跟里拿出来再用一次吧，蓝人都被逼得申枪了，那是对现状多不满？
: 这个帐是算在谁头上，BLM， 还是川肺？
:
: X
: one
: the
| r*********t
发帖数: 4911 | 8 当然，接了poll的电话，就得喊投主党。当初希拉里是怎么被糊弄的，今年重演一遍就
可以了 | r*********t
发帖数: 4911 | 9 “大部分想的都是换人试试看”
他已经展望了。
【在 i**********a 的大作中提到】
: 看门狗，你再展望一下
| r*********t
发帖数: 4911 | 10 强帖留名。
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: 大乱之下，大部分想的都是换人试试看，而不是维持原状。
| c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 11 Trump is already the President, and he cannot control social unrest which is
a lot worse than under Obama.
It takes quite a leap of faith to believe he won't make things worse given
another 4 years.
【在 j****l 的大作中提到】
: 看来你觉得打砸抢要算川普头上？把你的脑袋从脚后跟里拿出来再用一次吧，解释一下
| l****b
发帖数: 400 | 12 You are right. You are always right. So go piss off
is
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: Trump is already the President, and he cannot control social unrest which is
: a lot worse than under Obama.
: It takes quite a leap of faith to believe he won't make things worse given
: another 4 years.
| j****l
发帖数: 3356 | 13 a lot worse than that under Obama. 你少用了个that
另外，奥黑当政时无中生有搞出个BLM，川普只是还没彻底消除掉奥黑的这个legacy，
要算账难道不是奥黑的锅？而且奥黑时BLM更猖狂，川普一上台BLM就销声匿迹了，直到
现在奥黑喊话，BLM才再次出来，显然奥黑的直接责任。
is
【在 c*******o 的大作中提到】
: Trump is already the President, and he cannot control social unrest which is
: a lot worse than under Obama.
: It takes quite a leap of faith to believe he won't make things worse given
: another 4 years.
|
|
