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发帖数: 1709 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: beijingren3 (), 信区: Military
标 题: 美国经济专家们认为美国经济危机迫在眉睫的11个原因
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 20 09:53:46 2019, 美东)
11 Reasons Why So Many Experts Believe That A US Economic Crisis Is Imminent
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-20/11-reasons-why-so-many-experts-
believe-us-economic-crisis-imminent
Well, the following are 11 reasons why so many experts now believe that a U.
S. economic crisis is imminent…
#1 Last week, the “spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields”
turned negative for the very first time in 12 years. An inversion of the
yield curve has occurred prior to every single U.S. recession since the
1950s, and this is one of the most important economic signals that we have
seen yet.
#2 U.S. consumer sentiment just fell to the lowest level that we have seen
in all of 2019.
#3 74 percent of the economists surveyed by the National Association for
Business Economics believe that a recession will begin in the United States
by the end of 2021.
#4 U.S. industrial production just slipped back into contraction territory.
#5 The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index just fell to the
lowest level that we have seen since September 2009.
#6 Just like we witnessed in 2008, fear and volatility have returned to Wall
Street in a major way. In fact, so far this month we have already seen the
4th and 7th largest single day point declines in U.S. stock market history.
#7 The total number of bankruptcy filings in the United States has been
steadily shooting up, and it rose another 5 percent during the month of July.
#8 Major U.S. retailers continue to shut down more stores, and we have
continued to stay on a pace that would break the all-time record for store
closings in a single year.
#9 As I discussed yesterday, on a year over year basis U.S. freight shipment
volume has now fallen for 8 months in a row.
#10 According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the probability that
a recession will happen within the next 12 months is now the highest that it
has been since the last financial crisis.
#11 President Trump is suggesting that the Federal Reserve should cut
interest rates by 100 basis points and that the Fed should restart
quantitative easing as soon as possible. Both of those moves would be
considered to be “emergency measures” that should only happen if a major
economic downturn was imminent. |
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