m******d
发帖数: 3243 | 1 看看老Bill的tax reform
For anyone willing to read it, the January 2007 Congressional Budget Office
annual report settles any debate. Citing the original CBO forecasts of
capital gains tax revenue of $42 billion in 2003, $46 billion in 2004, $52
billion in 2005, and $57 billion in 2006, Democrats who opposed the rate
reduction in 2003 claimed that the capital gains tax cut would "cost" the
federal treasury $5.4 billion in fiscal years 2003-2006.
Those forecasts were embarrassingly wrong. The 2007 CBO report revealed that
capital gains and dividends tax collections were actually $51 billion in
2003, $72 billion in 2004, $97 billion in 2005, and $110 billion in 2006,
the last two years nearly doubling initial forecasts. | m******d
发帖数: 3243 | 2 It's very simple. Forecasts are guesses. When rates change in either
direction, the CBO does linear forecasts on tax revenues, never estimating
the stimulation or retardation of economic activity resulting from the
changes. It is all policy permits them to do. Accordingly, CBO forecasts for
rate changes are always wrong. CBO results, on the other hand, are facts --
the same facts that appear in reports from the OMB and the IRS. Four years
of factual history on the 2003 tax rate reduction on capital gains and
dividends in the CBO's own report showed that contrary to their expectation
of revenue declines, the Treasury actually received record revenues from
this class of tax obligation. For that matter, including the 2001 rate
reductions on income, Treasury revenues set records through 2007, at that
point exceeding original forecasts by roughly twice the cost of the two wars
in which America was engaged. The CBO was wrong about that as well. | m*******a
发帖数: 4507 | 3 如果能把Capital Gain预估准的话那应该去管hedge fund or private equity fund
for
【在 m******d 的大作中提到】
: It's very simple. Forecasts are guesses. When rates change in either
: direction, the CBO does linear forecasts on tax revenues, never estimating
: the stimulation or retardation of economic activity resulting from the
: changes. It is all policy permits them to do. Accordingly, CBO forecasts for
: rate changes are always wrong. CBO results, on the other hand, are facts --
: the same facts that appear in reports from the OMB and the IRS. Four years
: of factual history on the 2003 tax rate reduction on capital gains and
: dividends in the CBO's own report showed that contrary to their expectation
: of revenue declines, the Treasury actually received record revenues from
: this class of tax obligation. For that matter, including the 2001 rate
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