p*******e
发帖数: 2310 | 1 FiveThirtyEight’s Walt Hickey and I are at ABC News’ studios in Times
Square. A crowd gathered outside to cheer and boo when Clinton and Trump win
states. The crowd is what you would expect in New York: multiracial,
international (as tourists boggle at the American election spectacle) and
showy, with one man draped in an American flag.
Without stroking our own ego, I find it striking that FiveThirtyEight’s
model stood up to the uncertainty of this race while being criticized as
opportunistic for not declaring a Clinton victory. I myself, to be honest,
thought Clinton had a better shot at a comfortable lead. But while I was
wrong, I also remember the passion of Trump’s true believers and the way
that people on the knife’s edge of supporting Trump or voting third party
or write-in fell on the side of Trump.
How do we parse this race? We can look at the influence of the Supreme Court
on voter choice, with a fifth of voters marking it as their most important
issue and voting overwhelmingly for Trump. We can look at the “change”
voters — 87 percent of them picked Trump. But we can also look at the
popularity of minimum-wage ballot initiatives, which passed in all four
states where they were voted on — Arizona, Colorado, Maine and Washington.
We can look at the participation of American men in the labor force, which
has dropped from 87 percent in January 1948 to 69 percent this October. How
do we disaggregate the effects of race, gender, class, social conservatism
and labor economics?
Maybe in the end we cannot. But we have to begin to assemble the puzzle
called America, which is far more diverse, in its own way, than the crowd
gathered in Times Square. | d****i
发帖数: 4354 | 2 Not bad, good writing.
win
【在 p*******e 的大作中提到】
: FiveThirtyEight’s Walt Hickey and I are at ABC News’ studios in Times
: Square. A crowd gathered outside to cheer and boo when Clinton and Trump win
: states. The crowd is what you would expect in New York: multiracial,
: international (as tourists boggle at the American election spectacle) and
: showy, with one man draped in an American flag.
: Without stroking our own ego, I find it striking that FiveThirtyEight’s
: model stood up to the uncertainty of this race while being criticized as
: opportunistic for not declaring a Clinton victory. I myself, to be honest,
: thought Clinton had a better shot at a comfortable lead. But while I was
: wrong, I also remember the passion of Trump’s true believers and the way
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