t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 1 警告不要错误解读内华达数据，
目前的数据只能说明民主党籍已
投票比共和党多，这很正常。
The Washington Post reports that Democrats are dominating early voting in
Nevada. Business Insider notes that Latino early voting in Florida is up 99
percent over 2012’s figures, suggesting a strong showing for Hillary
Clinton there. But Fox News warns that the early voting numbers indicate a
very close race. These divergent views serve as an important reminder that
as popular as early voting is, it doesn’t actually tell us very much about
who’s going to win the election.
Let’s look at states that had early voting in 2012 and reported the party
registration of early voters (using the invaluable data collection provided
by Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of
Florida). There were only 12 such states that year. For each state, I
calculated the Democratic share of the two-party early vote and the
Democratic share of the two-party total vote. (So we’re excluding third-
party candidates from both numbers.)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/ | d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 2 I'm a registered Democrat for 7 yrs
99
about
【在 t*c 的大作中提到】
: 警告不要错误解读内华达数据，
: 目前的数据只能说明民主党籍已
: 投票比共和党多，这很正常。
: The Washington Post reports that Democrats are dominating early voting in
: Nevada. Business Insider notes that Latino early voting in Florida is up 99
: percent over 2012’s figures, suggesting a strong showing for Hillary
: Clinton there. But Fox News warns that the early voting numbers indicate a
: very close race. These divergent views serve as an important reminder that
: as popular as early voting is, it doesn’t actually tell us very much about
: who’s going to win the election.
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