b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 1 Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
Rep: 19,006 (+28 from 10/29)
DEM: 16,857 (+17 from 10/29)
Other (Independents): 8,620 (+22 from 10/29)
Total Returned: 44,483 (+67 from 10/29)
#Trump(Rep): 42.7% (same from 10/29)
#HRC(Dem): 37.9% (same from 10/29)
Other (Independents): 19.4% (same from 10/29)
Early Voting (Only)
Rep: 120,304 (+936 from 10/29)
DEM: 150,484 (+470 from 10/29)
Other (Independents): 66,272 (+356 from 10/29)
Total Voted: 337,059 (+1,762 from 10/29)
#Trump(Rep): 35.7% (+0.1% from 10/29)
#HRC(Dem): 44.7% (same from 10/29)
Other (Independents): 19.7% (same from 10/29)
29,187 more registered Democrats (D Voted Early: 139,281) Voted Early
compared to Republicans (R Voted Early: 110,094) in Week 1 of the 2012
Presidential Election. When comparing 2016 to 2012 (Week 1 Only), Democrats
are up (D: 30,180 {2016} to D: 29,141 {2012}) by 1,039 more early votes than
2012.
The lead for Democrats was 9.7% when looking at their % (D: 46.0% {2012} / R
comparing 2016’s % to 2012’s % (Week 1 Only), Democrats are (D: 9.0% {2016
} to D: 9.7% {2012}) down by 0.7% less early votes than 2012.
You can track this daily at the following link
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted
until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump
votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting
historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that the Axiom state poll from 10/23, 3% more Democrats are
voting for Trump than HRC (21% D for Trump while 18% R for HRC). Also Other
(Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent
state poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 19%. If we take the Axiom state
poll data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as follows in
votes mailed or early voted so far:
R – 114,234 (R voting for Trump) + 35,142 (D voting for Trump) + 44,561 (I
voting for Trump) = 193,937 Total Votes
D – 132,199 (D voting for HRC) + 25,076 (R voting for HRC) + 30,331 (I
voting for HRC) = 187,606 Total Votes
Trump = 50.8%
HRC = 49.2%
Folks this is starting to get scary! We were only up 1.0 on Friday (Trump =
50.5% to HRC = 49.5%) and are now up 1.6 points! | R**********9
发帖数: 1487 | 2 好，把NV翻红！
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 13
【在 b***n 的大作中提到】
: Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
: Rep: 19,006 (+28 from 10/29)
: DEM: 16,857 (+17 from 10/29)
: Other (Independents): 8,620 (+22 from 10/29)
: Total Returned: 44,483 (+67 from 10/29)
: #Trump(Rep): 42.7% (same from 10/29)
: #HRC(Dem): 37.9% (same from 10/29)
: Other (Independents): 19.4% (same from 10/29)
: Early Voting (Only)
: Rep: 120,304 (+936 from 10/29)
| t**g
发帖数: 3107 | | s*******i
发帖数: 178 | 4 既然不愿相信poll，就不要选自己觉得对自己有利的poll来说事。 这是原始的数据：
DEM: 150,484 + 16,857 = 167,341
REP: 120,304 + 19,006 = 139,310
OTHER: 66,272 + 8,620 = 74,892 |
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