T**********e 发帖数: 29576 | 1 2000年时候我挺高二,对这篇文章印象很深,当时在媒体影响不小,看了非常涨信心。
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2000/09/why_bush_is_toast.html
Why Bush Is Toast
SEPT. 14 2000 3:00 AM
By William Saletan
Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential
race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single
percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In
the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable
at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling
," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they
turned against him. But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Gore
because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only
question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has
passed Bush, the race is over.
Yes, in principle, Bush could win. The stock market could crash. Gore could
be caught shagging an intern. Bush could electrify the country with the
greatest performance in the history of presidential debates. But barring
such a grossly unlikely event, there is no reason to think Bush will recover
. Ultimately, reasons drive elections. For months, pundits yapped about Bush
's lead in the polls without scrutinizing the basis of that lead. Now they'
re doing the same to Gore. But look closely at the trends beneath the horse-
race numbers, and you'll realize why it's practically impossible to turn
those numbers around. Gore doesn't just have the lead. On each underlying
factor, he has the upside as well.
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