由买买提看人间百态

boards

本页内容为未名空间相应帖子的节选和存档,一周内的贴子最多显示50字,超过一周显示500字 访问原贴
USANews版 - 重温一下雄文:Why Bush Is Toast
相关主题
Ohio民调少数族裔投票给gop比例
Gore Blames Altitude for Obama's Debate Woes华裔选举不是选议题是要选代言人
Lieberman 2006Exit Polls: Obama is toast
写在大选前夜小bush和戈尔那次是不是最近的?
First poll after Trump's latest comment! New high我怎么觉得大选
床铺的最大问题是没有class为什么有的州不在超级星期二选?
一个卑微的愿望根据MSM,小布什从来就没赢过一场辩论
辩论效果主要看媒体隔夜的spin,经周末发酵见胜负。半农对小布什的总结
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: bush话题: gore话题: numbers话题: toast话题: why
进入USANews版参与讨论
1 (共1页)
T**********e
发帖数: 29576
1
2000年时候我挺高二,对这篇文章印象很深,当时在媒体影响不小,看了非常涨信心。
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/frame_game/2000/09/why_bush_is_toast.html
Why Bush Is Toast
SEPT. 14 2000 3:00 AM
By William Saletan
Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential
race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single
percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In
the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable
at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling
," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they
turned against him. But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Gore
because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only
question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has
passed Bush, the race is over.
Yes, in principle, Bush could win. The stock market could crash. Gore could
be caught shagging an intern. Bush could electrify the country with the
greatest performance in the history of presidential debates. But barring
such a grossly unlikely event, there is no reason to think Bush will recover
. Ultimately, reasons drive elections. For months, pundits yapped about Bush
's lead in the polls without scrutinizing the basis of that lead. Now they'
re doing the same to Gore. But look closely at the trends beneath the horse-
race numbers, and you'll realize why it's practically impossible to turn
those numbers around. Gore doesn't just have the lead. On each underlying
factor, he has the upside as well.
。。。。。。。。
1 (共1页)
进入USANews版参与讨论
相关主题
半农对小布什的总结First poll after Trump's latest comment! New high
Gallop Presidential Poll 2004 Oct 9-10床铺的最大问题是没有class
最近几届选举日最有意思是2004年一个卑微的愿望
噢巴马终于击败小布什荣登二战来最差总统宝座辩论效果主要看媒体隔夜的spin,经周末发酵见胜负。
Ohio民调少数族裔投票给gop比例
Gore Blames Altitude for Obama's Debate Woes华裔选举不是选议题是要选代言人
Lieberman 2006Exit Polls: Obama is toast
写在大选前夜小bush和戈尔那次是不是最近的?
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: bush话题: gore话题: numbers话题: toast话题: why