g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 1 October 25, 2016
November 8: Trump +5
By Andrew Grant White
Conventional wisdom says Trump's a dead duck, and we all know how prescient
is conventional wisdom. Only two weeks left until election, and
RealClearPolitics (RCP) puts Clinton about 6 points ahead. So confident is
Hillary (supposedly) that one newspaper now urges her to divert some from
the presidential campaign and help Democrats in Senate and House races. We
should be so lucky.
Back to the point. Presidential polls are split into two camps: MSM polls
and non-MSM polls. They have starkly different characteristics and results.
MSM polls come from those you already know, and the companies themselves
have already shed their last shred of dignity and objectivity to throw in
with Hillary. They also poll in discreet measure (i.e., release a poll
whenever they want one to come out).
Non-MSM polls are not as well known but quite accomplished (e.g., Rasmussen,
LA Times/USC, IDB/TIPP – the most accurate in 2012 election, by the way).
They also poll daily (actually an average of the last three days). Finally
, MSM polls consistently show Hillary up by an average of 8%, whereas the
non-MSM polls have shown variation based on events and a logical current
tightening of the polls down to basically +/-1% or so per candidate (e.g.,
Trump in the lead right now by 2% in Rasmussen's poll).
What if the polls change more favorably for Trump? Great, but I'm not
counting that here. What about the 2012 party sampling (or worse)
adjustment to data? Have you seen the difference in the candidate's rallies
? But so what? I'm not factoring that in, either. No, I'm not talking
about poll changes or the supposedly awoken silent majority giant. I'm
talking about the Bradley Effect.
For those not familiar with the Bradley Effect, it doesn't happen too often.
Specifically, it is named after a black L.A. major who ran for California
governor against a white man in 1982 (unusual for the times). Bradley was
ahead in the polls when, on election day, the exact opposite occurred. He
lost. Supposedly the polls were flawed because people did not want to sound
racist when polled. The Bradley Effect is not specific to one race, though
, nor to race itself. It occurs in unusual times at different magnitude.
Can you think of a candidate today whose name causes hush practically
anywhere you go? I can: Trump – "The Love that dare not speak its Name."
Such uniform pervasive societal and personal pressure not to support Trump
has led to the distinct possibility of another Bradley Effect. In essence,
Trump has closet Democrat, independent, and – yes – Republican supporters
whose support simply does not show up in any poll of either camp. How do I
back this up? Simple: I don't. It's a gut feeling, an intuition, a logical
conclusion for our times, and a resulting 3 points added onto Rasmussen's
current Trump +2%.
Therefore, I will now go on record that – even if nothing happens in the
polls or sampling of today – Trump will win on November 8 by at least 5%.
The man no one said would or could run; the man no one said would make it
out of the primaries alive; the man whose epitaph has been written by the
MSM so many times, it's even been done literally; the man whom, supposedly,
everybody hates...will be president of the United States-elect. Get used to
it. Oh, and buy stocks on the market swoon, and dump your debt.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/10/november_8th_trump_5.html | n******g
发帖数: 17225 | 2 说白了就是因为social desirability，老床的支持者数量被低估 | b*******t
发帖数: 4756 | 3 不可能，我预计的是全国山河一片红。我不信哪个州邪恶的或不明真相的群众会超过正
常人的数量。 | F*********s
发帖数: 537 | 4 左逼加州，纽约，还有MA, MD, MN几个很难。其他都有可能。
【在 b*******t 的大作中提到】
: 不可能，我预计的是全国山河一片红。我不信哪个州邪恶的或不明真相的群众会超过正
: 常人的数量。
| g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 5 October 25, 2016
November 8: Trump +5
By Andrew Grant White
Conventional wisdom says Trump's a dead duck, and we all know how prescient
is conventional wisdom. Only two weeks left until election, and
RealClearPolitics (RCP) puts Clinton about 6 points ahead. So confident is
Hillary (supposedly) that one newspaper now urges her to divert some from
the presidential campaign and help Democrats in Senate and House races. We
should be so lucky.
Back to the point. Presidential polls are split into two camps: MSM polls
and non-MSM polls. They have starkly different characteristics and results.
MSM polls come from those you already know, and the companies themselves
have already shed their last shred of dignity and objectivity to throw in
with Hillary. They also poll in discreet measure (i.e., release a poll
whenever they want one to come out).
Non-MSM polls are not as well known but quite accomplished (e.g., Rasmussen,
LA Times/USC, IDB/TIPP – the most accurate in 2012 election, by the way).
They also poll daily (actually an average of the last three days). Finally
, MSM polls consistently show Hillary up by an average of 8%, whereas the
non-MSM polls have shown variation based on events and a logical current
tightening of the polls down to basically +/-1% or so per candidate (e.g.,
Trump in the lead right now by 2% in Rasmussen's poll).
What if the polls change more favorably for Trump? Great, but I'm not
counting that here. What about the 2012 party sampling (or worse)
adjustment to data? Have you seen the difference in the candidate's rallies
? But so what? I'm not factoring that in, either. No, I'm not talking
about poll changes or the supposedly awoken silent majority giant. I'm
talking about the Bradley Effect.
For those not familiar with the Bradley Effect, it doesn't happen too often.
Specifically, it is named after a black L.A. major who ran for California
governor against a white man in 1982 (unusual for the times). Bradley was
ahead in the polls when, on election day, the exact opposite occurred. He
lost. Supposedly the polls were flawed because people did not want to sound
racist when polled. The Bradley Effect is not specific to one race, though
, nor to race itself. It occurs in unusual times at different magnitude.
Can you think of a candidate today whose name causes hush practically
anywhere you go? I can: Trump – "The Love that dare not speak its Name."
Such uniform pervasive societal and personal pressure not to support Trump
has led to the distinct possibility of another Bradley Effect. In essence,
Trump has closet Democrat, independent, and – yes – Republican supporters
whose support simply does not show up in any poll of either camp. How do I
back this up? Simple: I don't. It's a gut feeling, an intuition, a logical
conclusion for our times, and a resulting 3 points added onto Rasmussen's
current Trump +2%.
Therefore, I will now go on record that – even if nothing happens in the
polls or sampling of today – Trump will win on November 8 by at least 5%.
The man no one said would or could run; the man no one said would make it
out of the primaries alive; the man whose epitaph has been written by the
MSM so many times, it's even been done literally; the man whom, supposedly,
everybody hates...will be president of the United States-elect. Get used to
it. Oh, and buy stocks on the market swoon, and dump your debt.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/10/november_8th_trump_5.html | n******g
发帖数: 17225 | 6 说白了就是因为social desirability，老床的支持者数量被低估 | b*******t
发帖数: 4756 | 7 不可能，我预计的是全国山河一片红。我不信哪个州邪恶的或不明真相的群众会超过正
常人的数量。 | F*********s
发帖数: 537 | 8 左逼加州，纽约，还有MA, MD, MN几个很难。其他都有可能。
【在 b*******t 的大作中提到】
: 不可能，我预计的是全国山河一片红。我不信哪个州邪恶的或不明真相的群众会超过正
: 常人的数量。
| e******u
发帖数: 3206 | 9 准备打脸
prescient
is
We
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: October 25, 2016
: November 8: Trump +5
: By Andrew Grant White
: Conventional wisdom says Trump's a dead duck, and we all know how prescient
: is conventional wisdom. Only two weeks left until election, and
: RealClearPolitics (RCP) puts Clinton about 6 points ahead. So confident is
: Hillary (supposedly) that one newspaper now urges her to divert some from
: the presidential campaign and help Democrats in Senate and House races. We
: should be so lucky.
: Back to the point. Presidential polls are split into two camps: MSM polls
| j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | | W***o
发帖数: 6519 | 11 左逼们都是恶贯满盈啊
【在 j*********r 的大作中提到】
: 卖绿卡的又来了哈！
|
|
