r******n
发帖数: 149 | |
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 2 这个 FiveThirtyEight 是 New York Times 旗下的打手，和飞机上的鸡西卡老太太是
一路货
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United
States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling
aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August
2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It
was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. |
t******g
发帖数: 1667 | 3 这是odds of winning，不是民调。这比民调还不靠谱。这个538去年预测Trump
只有5%的概率赢得初选，还弄了个Trump's six stages of doom，结果每个stage都被
打脸。预测如此consistently wrong，也不容易。 |
r******n
发帖数: 149 | 4 http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-republican/
这是他们对florida primary 的预测。神准！
这个是indiana
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/
Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom
是发表于八月，primary 结束之后的。 是预判general election.现在这个过程已经已
经在印证了。
不知道你说的额consistency 在哪
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: 这是odds of winning，不是民调。这比民调还不靠谱。这个538去年预测Trump
: 只有5%的概率赢得初选，还弄了个Trump's six stages of doom，结果每个stage都被
: 打脸。预测如此consistently wrong，也不容易。
|
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 5 打烂老婊砸走狗的碧莲
Criticism of presidential forecasts[edit]
In a series of posts in 2011 and 2012, FiveThirtyEight criticized the
forecasting methods that relied on macro-economic modeling of the electoral
outcomes.[538 80][538 81] According to Silver, models based primarily on the
macro-level performance of the economy (such as unemployment, inflation,
and the performance of the stock market), presidential approval ratings (
when an incumbent is running for re-election), and the ideological
positioning of the (potential) opposing candidates were useful for making
forecasts of the election outcome well in advance of election day, though
not very precise ones.
An article stating such a position published exactly one year before
election day 2012[47] was attacked in an online article in Bloomberg News by
Ron Klain, the former chief-of-staff to Vice President Biden and a
political advisor to Barack Obama.[59] Nate Silver wrote a defense of his
method in response. Silver's response was followed by another one from Klain
others on Silver's article and the debate with Klain.[538 82][61][62]
In late October and early November 2012, a number of conservative political
journalists issued criticisms of Nate Silver's predictions as overly biased
towards Barack Obama's chances of being re-elected president.[63][64][65][66
][67][68] Dean Chambers criticized Nate Silver and issued his own "unskewed"
prediction of the election. This prediction ultimately erred on four swing
states and missed Barack Obama's popular vote percentage by 1.7%, while Nate
Silver correctly predicted all 50 states and missed Barack Obama's popular
vote percentage by 0.3%. Dean Chambers admitted that his assumptions about
voter turnout were incorrect and that the pollsters' assumptions were very
accurate.[69]
During the final weeks prior to the November 6th election, some pundits also
criticized Silver's electoral model for conveying an undue sense of
predictability to the outcome as well as a conviction that Barack Obama was
ahead in the race and had a 75% probability of winning.[70] For example, New
York Times op-ed columnist David Brooks wrote, "I know ... how I should
treat polling data. First, I should treat polls as a fuzzy snapshot of a
moment in time. I should not read them, and think I understand the future.
If there's one thing we know, it’s that even experts with fancy computer
models are terrible at predicting human behavior".[71][72]
In a more direct attack on Silver, in an article entitled "Nate Silver: One-
term celebrity?" Dylan Byers of Politico wrote, "For all the confidence
Silver puts in his predictions, he often gives the impression of hedging.
Which, given all the variables involved in a presidential election, isn't
surprising. For this reason and others—and this may shock the coffee-
drinking NPR types of Seattle, San Francisco and Madison, Wis.—more than a
few political pundits and reporters, including some of his own colleagues,
believe Silver is highly overrated."[64] Byers also quoted this comment by
Joe Scarborough on MSNBC's Morning Joe: "Nate Silver says this is a 73.6
percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign
thinks they have a 73 percent chance – they think they have a 50.1 percent
chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing,"
Scarborough said. "Both sides understand that it is close, and it could go
either way. And anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a toss-up
right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters,
computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're
jokes". |
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 6 无情的打脸，噼里啪啦
As early as June 2015, FiveThirtyEight argued that Donald Trump "isn't a
real candidate"[86] and maintained that Trump could not win the nomination
until late in the election season.[87] When Donald Trump became the
presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, New York Times media columnist
Jim Rutenberg wrote that "predictions can have consequences" and criticized
FiveThirtyEight for underestimating Trump's chances. He argued that by
giving "Mr. Trump a 2 percent chance at the nomination despite strong polls
in his favor...they also arguably sapped the journalistic will to scour his
record as aggressively as those of his supposedly more serious rivals".[88] |
q***o
发帖数: 734 | 7 关键Primary的时候老床不是拉力的直接对手，今年的问题在于利益相关的腐败，你看
看DEM的初选，几场关键州，IN和MI，三得子赢的，都是预测拉力>90%赢。
【在 r******n 的大作中提到】
: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-republican/
: 这是他们对florida primary 的预测。神准！
: 这个是indiana
: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/
: Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom
: 是发表于八月，primary 结束之后的。 是预判general election.现在这个过程已经已
: 经在印证了。
: 不知道你说的额consistency 在哪
|
t******g
发帖数: 1667 | 8 six stages of doom 发表于 AUG 6, 2015，那会primary已经结束了？
【在 r******n 的大作中提到】
: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-republican/
: 这是他们对florida primary 的预测。神准！
: 这个是indiana
: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/
: Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom
: 是发表于八月，primary 结束之后的。 是预判general election.现在这个过程已经已
: 经在印证了。
: 不知道你说的额consistency 在哪
|
r******n
发帖数: 149 | 9 and still another to give Mr. Trump a “2 percent” chance at the nomination
despite strong polls in his favor, as FiveThirtyEight did six months before
the first votes were cast. Predictions that far out can be viewed as being
all in good fun.
帮你引用全面些。这里说的是6个月的预测。现在我们只有3个多星期。呵呵。11。08
自然见分晓。
criticized
polls
his
【在 g******t 的大作中提到】
: 无情的打脸，噼里啪啦
: As early as June 2015, FiveThirtyEight argued that Donald Trump "isn't a
: real candidate"[86] and maintained that Trump could not win the nomination
: until late in the election season.[87] When Donald Trump became the
: presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, New York Times media columnist
: Jim Rutenberg wrote that "predictions can have consequences" and criticized
: FiveThirtyEight for underestimating Trump's chances. He argued that by
: giving "Mr. Trump a 2 percent chance at the nomination despite strong polls
: in his favor...they also arguably sapped the journalistic will to scour his
: record as aggressively as those of his supposedly more serious rivals".[88]
|
r******n
发帖数: 149 | 10 你觉得呢？
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: six stages of doom 发表于 AUG 6, 2015，那会primary已经结束了？
|
k***k
发帖数: 791 | 11 538就是以大选预测准确出名的。
看看2012年大选的结果就知道了。
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: 这是odds of winning，不是民调。这比民调还不靠谱。这个538去年预测Trump
: 只有5%的概率赢得初选，还弄了个Trump's six stages of doom，结果每个stage都被
: 打脸。预测如此consistently wrong，也不容易。
|
r******n
发帖数: 149 | 12 恩。 但是其他40多个州预测都没错。 2/40 <10% 概率上也没有太大问题。要不他就
直接预测100%好了。
今年问题本来可以在于利益相关腐败，可是现在只剩3周多了，问题还是集中于女性被
强权候选人肆意骚扰,而且该候选人还深以为荣。
随着更多女性站出来，而且early voting已经开始，回到所谓腐败问题可能性已经不大
了。
【在 q***o 的大作中提到】
: 关键Primary的时候老床不是拉力的直接对手，今年的问题在于利益相关的腐败，你看
: 看DEM的初选，几场关键州，IN和MI，三得子赢的，都是预测拉力>90%赢。
|
t******g
发帖数: 1667 | 13 primary schedule今年初才set，不知道你说的去年八月就结束的primary为何物。
【在 r******n 的大作中提到】
: 你觉得呢？
|
