m****g
发帖数: 2215 | | m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 2 If he makes these numbers, Trump would finish the primary season with at
least 1,240 delegates – over the magic number. Obviously, this would be a
perilous path with little margin for error. A loss in Indiana, for instance,
would knock his final number well under 1,237. That said, a stronger win in
California than we’re penciling in here could push him well past 1,237.
More importantly, this does not include the unbound delegates from
Pennsylvania. Again, they’ll be free to change their minds all the way up
until the convention roll call, but if Trump wins Pennsylvania big it does
seem likely he’ll take a large number of them.
Which brings us to a bigger point: If Trump is short of 1,237, it still
might not be enough for the Stop Trump forces. As the Pennsylvania situation
shows, there are potential avenues for him to add delegates even if his
primary season total is a few dozen short of 1,237. Moreover, if he’s that
close, there’s the very practical issue of whether the Republican Party,
for all of the anti-Trump noise now in the air, will want to spend those
valuable weeks leading up the Cleveland convention desperate fighting
someone who is likely in the end to have the votes to become the nominee. | H***l
发帖数: 1936 | 3 最可能的结果就是拿不到1237，但只差几十，不到一百，然后Trump展示他dealmaker的
本事，从一百多unbounded代表中争取到足够的票补上差额。头一轮投票就结束战斗。
在这个过程中，如何跟Lying Ted斗智斗勇，将会是本年最吸引眼球的大戏。
instance,
in
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: If he makes these numbers, Trump would finish the primary season with at
: least 1,240 delegates – over the magic number. Obviously, this would be a
: perilous path with little margin for error. A loss in Indiana, for instance,
: would knock his final number well under 1,237. That said, a stronger win in
: California than we’re penciling in here could push him well past 1,237.
: More importantly, this does not include the unbound delegates from
: Pennsylvania. Again, they’ll be free to change their minds all the way up
: until the convention roll call, but if Trump wins Pennsylvania big it does
: seem likely he’ll take a large number of them.
: Which brings us to a bigger point: If Trump is short of 1,237, it still
| t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | 4 刚输掉威州的时候比较吓人
现在克鲁兹蔫了
brokered convention的可能性从70%跌到40%了 | R*****g
发帖数: 1649 | 5 也快没钱了。他搞这种幕后交易需要烧钱。
【在 t*******d 的大作中提到】
: 刚输掉威州的时候比较吓人
: 现在克鲁兹蔫了
: brokered convention的可能性从70%跌到40%了
| t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | 6 是的，克鲁兹的后劲会越来越弱
威州刚赢是川普和克鲁兹的提名40:40的样子，现在67:20
【在 R*****g 的大作中提到】
: 也快没钱了。他搞这种幕后交易需要烧钱。
| R*****g
发帖数: 1649 | 7 我还在等他被彻底抛弃之后，二两肉的事情赶紧发酵呢。
【在 t*******d 的大作中提到】
: 是的，克鲁兹的后劲会越来越弱
: 威州刚赢是川普和克鲁兹的提名40:40的样子，现在67:20
| t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | 8 如果等川普1237了，
发酵也没太大吸引力
【在 R*****g 的大作中提到】
: 我还在等他被彻底抛弃之后，二两肉的事情赶紧发酵呢。
| t********y
发帖数: 183 | 9 Go Trump! Make America Great Again! |
|
