l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Joke 讨论区 】
发信人: daemonself (mit行为艺术专业博士后导师), 信区: Joke
标 题: 美宣部这技术真不是盖的
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 2 16:19:27 2015, 美东)
失业率再创新低，因为又有43w人不想找工作了。另外偷偷把前两个月的数据改了。花
街又是一片欢欣鼓舞
The report was weaker than it looks due to significant downward revisions in
April and May totaling 60,000. May was revised to 254,000 from 280,000 and
April to 187,000 from 221,000. | b*****o
发帖数: 6080 | 2 gallup高层早就有人指出统计方法的不科学......
in
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Joke 讨论区 】
: 发信人: daemonself (mit行为艺术专业博士后导师), 信区: Joke
: 标 题: 美宣部这技术真不是盖的
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jul 2 16:19:27 2015, 美东)
: 失业率再创新低，因为又有43w人不想找工作了。另外偷偷把前两个月的数据改了。花
: 街又是一片欢欣鼓舞
: The report was weaker than it looks due to significant downward revisions in
: April and May totaling 60,000. May was revised to 254,000 from 280,000 and
: April to 187,000 from 221,000.
| a*******1
发帖数: 1554 | 3 我早就说过，右派就是反智反科学，现在最新的大数据、机器学习、数据挖掘、计量经
济学本质上都是统计，只不过换了一些名词和概念罢了。如果说统计不是科学，这些学
科也不复存在，这一轮的科技革命就可以停止了。 | b*****o
发帖数: 6080 | 4 http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemploym
The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment
by Jim Clifton
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Here's something that many Americans -- including some of the smartest and
most educated among us -- don't know: The official unemployment rate, as
reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.
Right now, we're hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House
and Wall Street about how unemployment is "down" to 5.6%. The cheerleading
for this number is deafening. The media loves a comeback story, the White
House wants to score political points and Wall Street would like you to stay
in the market.
None of them will tell you this: If you, a family member or anyone is
unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job -- if you are so
hopelessly out of work that you've stopped looking over the past four weeks
-- the Department of Labor doesn't count you as unemployed. That's right.
While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never
find work again, you are not counted in the figure we see relentlessly in
the news -- currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are
either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of
them aren't throwing parties to toast "falling" unemployment.
There's another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say you're an
out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail
manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid
at least $20 -- maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn -- you're not
officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans
know this.
Yet another figure of importance that doesn't get much press: those working
part time but wanting full-time work. If you have a degree in chemistry or
math and are working 10 hours part time because it is all you can find -- in
other words, you are severely underemployed -- the government doesn't count
you in the 5.6%. Few Americans know this.
There's no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which
cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently
unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.
And it's a lie that has consequences, because the great American dream is to
have a good job, and in recent years, America has failed to deliver that
dream more than it has at any time in recent memory. A good job is an
individual's primary identity, their very self-worth, their dignity -- it
establishes the relationship they have with their friends, community and
country. When we fail to deliver a good job that fits a citizen's talents,
training and experience, we are failing the great American dream.
Gallup defines a good job as 30+ hours per week for an organization that
provides a regular paycheck. Right now, the U.S. is delivering at a
staggeringly low rate of 44%, which is the number of full-time jobs as a
percent of the adult population, 18 years and older. We need that to be 50%
and a bare minimum of 10 million new, good jobs to replenish America's
middle class.
I hear all the time that "unemployment is greatly reduced, but the people
aren't feeling it." When the media, talking heads, the White House and Wall
Street start reporting the truth -- the percent of Americans in good jobs;
jobs that are full time and real -- then we will quit wondering why
Americans aren't "feeling" something that doesn't remotely reflect the
reality in their lives. And we will also quit wondering what hollowed out
the middle class.
Jim Clifton is Chairman and CEO at Gallup. |
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