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发帖数: 29846 | 1 By JOHN D. MCKINNON
If the U.S. goes over the "fiscal cliff," some Americans may fall harder
than others.
The biggest impact in sheer dollars would land on relatively affluent
households, particularly when it comes to the tax increases that make up the
bulk of the cliff. But in terms of percentage of tax increases, low- and
moderate-income taxpayers will face the biggest burden—an often overlooked
part of the budget debate that's now getting attention as the year-end
deadline nears.
Investors are seeing a jump in the number of companies making big one-time
payouts to stem a possible increase to the dividend-tax rate.
Households earning $10,000 to $20,000 would see a large increase in
theiroverall federal tax burdens, from an average of $68 to $605. The blow
would be especially harsh for married couples and households with children.
The fiscal cliff "clobbers low-income households with children," said
Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, a joint venture
of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute. "It is striking how
large some of the increases are."
A household that makes between $10,000 and $20,000 in income and has a child
would get a $2,761 payment from the Internal Revenue Service under current
rules, thanks to various tax breaks and credits. After the cliff, that would
be cut by $1,324, or about half.
Married couples earning $20,000 to $30,000 today would get an average $15
payment from the IRS under current rules. In January, they would owe an
average $1,408 to the IRS, because several of those breaks would be narrowed
or eliminated.
Budget talks were mostly quiet Sunday, officials on both sides said, after a
week when efforts between President Barack Obama and House Speaker John
Boehner (R., Ohio) to cut a deal collapsed, and the House failed to pass a
backup plan.
Some leaders, including Mr. Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D.,
Nev.), attended a memorial service for the late Sen. Daniel Inouye in
Honolulu. Mr. Obama said he would cut his holiday vacation short and return
to Washington this week to work on an agreement.
The so-called fiscal cliff comprises about $500 billion in tax-break
expirations and government spending cuts that are set to take effect in
early January, unless Congress acts. With little more than a week to find a
solution, Democrats and Republicans are focusing on the real-world impacts
of the fiscal cliff and seeking to shift blame for it.
"We're taking…this incredible mallet and [are] about to smash America,"
Newark's Democratic Mayor Cory Booker said Sunday on ABC's "This Week." "
People are going to be cut out of programs that support the poorest
Americans….This is really what bothers me right now."
Don Stewart, a spokesman for Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.),
said on Sunday: "Given the impact on all segments of the economy, it's
disappointing that Democrats are so cavalier about letting the country go
off the cliff."
The Obama administration contends Republicans would let much of the fiscal
cliff's impact happen for moderate-income families, by allowing Obama-era
breaks to expire.
If Congress misses its year-end deadline but quickly restores the expired
tax breaks, the tax impact on lower-income households could be modest.
One problem, however, might be unavoidable: a delay in sending tax-refund
payments that normally arrive between late January and March. The IRS
already has warned lawmakers it might have to postpone the tax-filing season
by several weeks, possibly for everyone.
Much of the tax debate has focused on upper-income Americans, who will
likely see taxes rise in some form next year. If no budget deal is reached,
households making more than $100,000 would absorb more than 50% of the total
tax increase, according to an analysis by the Tax Policy Center. And those
earning more than $1 million would see their taxes rise by an average 24%,
from about $1.1 million to about $1.3 million.
Budget talks were mostly quiet Sunday, after a week when efforts between
President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner to cut a deal
collapsed. Above, Mr. Obama prepares to make a statement about fiscal cliff
negotiations on Friday.
At the other end of the income scale, the risk comes from the expiration of
less-heralded parts of the Bush-era tax code, as well as Obama changes that
expanded several breaks for lower- and middle-income households.
About two million people also face the prospect of losing unemployment
checks starting in January, with the expiration of extended federal
unemployment benefits. "For the long-term unemployed, their entire income
may disappear," said Robert Greenstein, executive director of the liberal
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Depending on how budget cuts are handled, many programs that serve lower-
income people could be curtailed. Almost 100,000 fewer children might be
served under the Head Start education program, which now serves almost one
million, according to a recent report by Sen. Tom Harkin (D., Iowa). About
five million fewer families could be served under a grant program for urgent
maternal and child health-care needs. About $271 million out of $3.4
billion could be cut from the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program.
—Carol E. Lee contributed to this article. |
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